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  • #329,201
  • Nov 19, 2010 9:45am Nov 19, 2010 9:45am
Quoting Forexfsa
One of the bigger Irish banks, Allied Irish, issued an update to shareholders today and it is not pretty reading.

Deposits at AIB fall by €13 billion

Related

[list][*]IMF/EU teams continuing talks with Government | 19/11/2010[*]Spain's banks may avoid new mergers | 19/11/2010[*][url="http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/1119/breaking15.html?via=rel"]Irish...


Forget about this. It's old news. CNBC had already broken that news thinking it will move the market.
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #329,202
  • Nov 19, 2010 9:47am Nov 19, 2010 9:47am
Quoting kuroro001
Enjoy the reading from Tarantula
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...AY#post4099931
Thanks mate
  • #329,203
  • Nov 19, 2010 9:48am Nov 19, 2010 9:48am
Looking the week ahead it seems like we might be closing above last week's low. If this happens we will see 1.385 first and then possibley mid 1.39 and a spike to 1.4 is not out of question. IRISH dept bs will be fixed next week and this should support the EURO.
  • #329,204
  • Nov 19, 2010 9:53am Nov 19, 2010 9:53am
Quoting vinesh2
Looking the week ahead it seems like we might be closing above last week's low. If this happens we will see 1.385 first and then possibley mid 1.39 and a spike to 1.4 is not out of question. IRISH dept bs will be fixed next week and this should support the EURO.
Above 3600 everything is bullish. 3574 is the key to downside 3515 then 3450.

3850 is not ruled out.
  • #329,205
  • Nov 19, 2010 9:53am Nov 19, 2010 9:53am
Okay ... we took final profit now ... week end looming ...


Macht es gut!

2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #329,206
  • Nov 19, 2010 9:53am Nov 19, 2010 9:53am
Well PipChick, from my point of view " real" money is not what lots of people in these forums trade. Real money in that context imply a degree of risk that makes trading a business and investment for the long term or a way to make a living, meaning not demo accounts or $1 a pip accounts.

How do you recognize that? Well, is most of the time very easy. Examples include 1)Posters with 5/15 min charts R:R 3:1 or even 4:1 (100 pip SL for 30 pips target). 2)Friday 20 mins before the week close and they "see" a "triangle reversal" in 1 min chart or indies divergences aiming a 200 pip move. 3) Blindly trading a H1 touch of a very bad drawn weekly trendline...and the list can go forever.

A part from the sarcastic comments, there is big money in the markets
(call it whatever you want ...except smart ' cause i am not sure about that after the 2008 crisis).

Just a quick case to make my point. Selling $4.1 billion (75,000 !!!!! E-mini futures contracts...wow the very few occasions when I trade 5 contracts and my hearth start pumping very fast every second) in less than 10 minutes in the flash crash May is enough argument to confirm that big money move the markets.

I do agree that for retail traders is almost impossible to know where these money resides, especially in non centralized market like forex.

There are some serious attempts (outside forex, especially in highly liquid instruments like the ES, FESX and Bobl and Bund...I can give you some links if you want) using advance algorithmic calculations (now available for the public) in velocity, intensity and volume but its way too advanced for make it general.

At the end and as you said, IMO the "best" approximation (and what I use to see major areas) is just simple S/R in longer timeframes. Yes, even only with a daily and without volume you know that for example the 1.192x S in last June or the last 1.420x 2 weeks ago wasn't made by the average Joe daytrading 5 mins chart.

So yes I agree with the LOL, in practice is almost impossible for a retail trader to know where & what is real money. I discard as a mumbojumbo most of the posters who talk about big money this or that in real time.

Long post but I am done with the pair today and just waiting (very boringly) for a trigger in the ES.

sisse

Quoting PipChick
I have an open forum question...I see people on the forums talking about "real money" , smart money, big boys money etc...first of all..what exactly are these monies and secondly how does any retail trader KNOW where (at what price levels) these monies reside? I have been in this business for 7 yrs and I have NO idea where these monies are. Are you all just talking about simple S and R and fib levels? lol
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #329,207
  • Nov 19, 2010 9:56am Nov 19, 2010 9:56am
Quoting sisse
Well PipChick, from my point of view " real" money is not what lots of people in these forums trade....

sisse
^^ this
  • #329,208
  • Nov 19, 2010 9:57am Nov 19, 2010 9:57am
Quoting T@rantula
I have posted many times before...Check my posts.
Have only recently come over to this thread, so apologies. Kuroro has linked me to one of your posts.

  • #329,209
  • Nov 19, 2010 9:58am Nov 19, 2010 9:58am
Quoting Delite
Have only recently come over to this thread, so apologies. Kuroro has linked me to one of your posts.

No problem. thanks for reading.
  • #329,210
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:00am Nov 19, 2010 10:00am
Quoting Forexfsa
Euro Collapsing
I think you need to get yourself a twitter account. Between this and posting the same news message across 3 different threads you're obviously trying to increase your posting count.

When readers come back to the thread and have to read through pages of various types of drivel, it's really annoying. Plus, it's old, because any trader with a brain, is presumably following a news portal in real-time as well.

It's also not the purpose of the thread. Your particular quote above is completely meaningless to anyone read it after the fact. Not to mention, a drop of 40-70 is nowhere near the definition of a collapse.

I hate posting stuff like this (because it too is not on topic), but I assure you 80%+ of the posters here feel that way. Please stop.
  • #329,211
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:06am Nov 19, 2010 10:06am
hi T@rantula,
do you know why there was a big drop on eur/usd just now? thanks you
  • #329,212
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:09am Nov 19, 2010 10:09am
who would of thunk?... i just believe he came out and verified it.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...-on-china.html
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #329,213
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:13am Nov 19, 2010 10:13am
So far ok & now waiting see how it develops next or better say as still a bull , how far it may go next . price though standstill but something to happen or hint for next week .
fontu
Attached Image
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #329,214
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:13am Nov 19, 2010 10:13am
Quoting FirePegasus
hi T@rantula,
do you know why there was a big drop on eur/usd just now? thanks you
That was pure profit taking on the second solid failure of 3650, which was immediately sold into, indicating 3650 is going to go. That is big money at play positioning for next week. (sorry Pipchick)

You can fairly clearly see the big boys at play, profit taking, jump, selling like mad, back at the profit taking level and a good momentum bar to break through. These are like the news trades where you can buy in to the fakeout to join the momentum.
  • #329,215
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:13am Nov 19, 2010 10:13am
Quoting sisse
Well PipChick, from my point of view " real"...
Scanning thru the forum while I wait for my daughter to pick me up but yeah Sisse...a BIG LOL. I really hate it when posters say that oh the big money is sitting at this price or the smart money is sitting here or I will sell into the real money.. It really annoys me as we all know that NONE of us know where the BIG, REAL, SMART money sits. Now, if someone who talks about these monies have some kind of whacked out indi to determine where the monies are then please share it or shut up..lol..Its simple S AND R. lol
I dont mean to start a debate, its just something I see all the time and it annoys the hell out of me. (probably because I have no freaking idea myself after being in this business many years where that BIG, REAL, SMART money is) unless of course if these posters are meaning simple s and r, fibs, etc ..lol
  • #329,216
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:15am Nov 19, 2010 10:15am
Quoting cloggie
That was pure profit taking on the second solid failure of 3650, which was immediately sold into, indicating 3650 is going to go. That is big money at play positioning for next week. (sorry Pipchick)

You can fairly clearly see the big boys at play, profit taking, jump, selling like mad, back at the profit taking level and a good momentum bar to break through. These are like the news trades where you can buy in to the fakeout to join the momentum.

And there goes 3650.

That was good PA showing you how the bigger day traders took their profits at 3650, giving us the big jump, that was immediately sold into by other bigger traders to get it back down, they were confident that price was not done falling yet, which led to 3650 going.
  • #329,217
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:17am Nov 19, 2010 10:17am
so...much...Rage...I had two sell positions one SL got hit to the pip the other was still open, I though: this is it, nothing's going to happen anymore, I'm setting my TP near my entry, what happens? BAM through 1.3660.

God I know I'm right most of the time but when my Stops are hit and all I just...
  • #329,218
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:20am Nov 19, 2010 10:20am
Quoting cloggie
And there goes 3650.

That was good PA showing you how the bigger day traders took their profits at 3650, giving us the big jump, that was immediately sold into by other bigger traders to get it back down, they were confident that price was not done falling yet, which led to 3650 going.

From a PA point of view, I don't mind 3650 being tested again as the opportunists will take their profit of that break from the top of the earlier profit taking, but I want the sellers to defend it as it now needs to become resistance.

Of course volatility is cr@p this late on Friday, but PA generally still behaves itself, just in slow motion.

Commenting further on liquidity/volatility, expect it to start dropping next week as the "fat" part of this trading season is coming to a close, with a marked drop next Thursday.
  • #329,219
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:21am Nov 19, 2010 10:21am
1.364x is being defended by buyers, although selling pressure remains, it's decreasing. Higher buying volume is occuring in NY vs. Europe, where they too were buying. We're partially correlating here with equities; by no means a sure thing that we're going up as profit taking into the weekend is a unknown as London winds down; hopeful for 1.362/1.360 to support buyers.

P.S. - I realize we're down another notch to 1.3628 - sellers continue to unload but buyers still look to be picking it up; can't mark up a chart faster though! Let's see what the NY afternoon brings.
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  • #329,220
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:23am Nov 19, 2010 10:23am
Quoting Beljevina
can't mark up a chart faster though! Let's see what the NY afternoon brings.

I had the same problem, so just ignored the chart and described it instead. Sellers are still out there, despite the earlier profit taking. Let's see if we can get a nudge closer to the DP and 3611 (which was a biggie over the last few days)

Big money has no appetite yet to take this back up.
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