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  • #329,161
  • Nov 19, 2010 8:36am Nov 19, 2010 8:36am
Quoting longshot_nl
If this 15m candle closes below 1.3673 (R1) I think it will go down to the PP which today is also 38.2 retrace.
the butterfly you posted about 12 hrs ago seems to be playing out
hang on to your bread......unless you want toast
  • #329,162
  • Nov 19, 2010 8:38am Nov 19, 2010 8:38am
Quoting longshot_nl
If this 15m candle closes below 1.3673 (R1) I think it will go down to the PP which today is also 38.2 retrace.


Ok , bedankt voor delen van uw idee !

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  • #329,163
  • Nov 19, 2010 8:41am Nov 19, 2010 8:41am
close below orange line.
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  • #329,164
  • Nov 19, 2010 8:43am Nov 19, 2010 8:43am
Quoting qwasyx
mercy: Tun dir da nicht die Augen weh?

Gruß aus der Stuttgarter Gegend
No qwasyx ... not today ... he he ...

And those multicolored charts ... in case you ment that ... das ist nur Deco ... as I know they like it colorful ... so isses leider ...

Can't help it ... but at least ... naket is best ... 'Barfuß oder Lackschuh' ...


Gruß
mercy
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #329,165
  • Nov 19, 2010 8:46am Nov 19, 2010 8:46am
  •  brigo
  • | Joined Oct 2008 | Status: the early bird catches the worm | 45 Posts
Quoting Merry
Ok , bedankt voor delen van uw idee !

de groeten aan Nederland !
  • #329,166
  • Nov 19, 2010 8:51am Nov 19, 2010 8:51am
One more interesting thing, I dont follow Elliot Waves, but on the 1HR chart looks like the 5th wave just finished and now this is the corrective phases.

Corrective phase is three parts. The first wave will go no lower than point 4.

So on my chart we are still looking to drop to 3616.


Quoting DrLobo
Some reasons to consider this a top:

1) 4hr/1hr/30/15/5 Indicators screaming that its over sold. (Granted may not be a top may just be a pull back)

2) 4hr touching 200 EMA, we dont have momentum to get passed it we will bounce down and very hard (back test this one).

3) 300 pips in one direction we are due at least a descent amount of pull back lets see how the buyers will start being sellers.

4) Gold is already falling (Dollar will soon be bought)

Summary:

Market is looking exhausted and people have over bought what is currently a weak...
  • #329,167
  • Nov 19, 2010 8:52am Nov 19, 2010 8:52am
Quoting brigo
de groeten aan Nederland !


Salutations à la Belgique aussi !



  • #329,168
  • Nov 19, 2010 8:53am Nov 19, 2010 8:53am
Quoting PipChick
I have an open forum question...I see people on the forums talking about "real money" , smart money, big boys money etc...first of all..what exactly are these monies and secondly how does any retail trader KNOW where (at what price levels) these monies reside? I have been in this business for 7 yrs and I have NO idea where these monies are. Are you all just talking about simple S and R and fib levels? lol

i guess what it mean that any trader who didn't use leverage as we did as retail trader, so they must be very very rich. Where they come from:
1. could be Lucky las vegas gambler
2. could be 3rd world dictator
3. could be heir to the monarch
4. could be James Bretton like trader
5. could be pirates, mafia or yakuza who sell drugs
6. could be everyone who owned 90% of world wealth in their bank account

Hope this help
  • #329,169
  • Nov 19, 2010 8:54am Nov 19, 2010 8:54am
What would you say?

Hourly close:

< 1.3650 - short
> 1.3650 - long
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #329,170
  • Nov 19, 2010 8:56am Nov 19, 2010 8:56am
About to hit Parity...6 PIPS away right here! Let us see how it will effect E/U

OOPS TYPO in Title. USD/CHF
  • #329,171
  • Nov 19, 2010 8:58am Nov 19, 2010 8:58am
Quoting Gld
the butterfly you posted about 12 hrs ago seems to be playing out
No my point B was 1.365 my SL got hit.
But i got a nice trade after that, am now +70 pips, aiming for 90.
  • #329,172
  • Nov 19, 2010 8:59am Nov 19, 2010 8:59am
Quoting Z3iz3i
What would you say?

Hourly close:

< 1.3650 - short
> 1.3650 - long

is it monthly support?, fundamentally i hesitate to go long. Technically i'm sideways. If i have to gamble i will pick short
  • #329,173
  • Nov 19, 2010 9:00am Nov 19, 2010 9:00am
Quoting kuroro001
All high vol are either compressed bars (doji or no strong upbars) then there is downmove.
And the upside is not made with high vol...probably because its done before Frankfurt/London.

Its like sellers are there on all top...ready to make the pair drown.

We'll see that in the coming day/weeks.

PS : this chart is a little mess but its hard to explain everything
Attachment
Hi Kuroro001

I liked your chart a few pages back and good observations.I have few comments feel free to shoot them down in flames if you disagree.

1st Doji on high volume after an upmove = get out of dodge
What is happening here ? Early buyers offloading to late buyers next candle is pretty similar.So after that who is going to buy from them especially after seeing indecision after a decent move up ? So naturally price falls, notice steadily decreasing volume.No surprise price takes off to the upside when it hits the previous resistance.

The 1.3730 Spinning top at the high is exactly the same scenario as above.

Also look to the left and you will see this is the 1st visit back to a supply area where price left it pretty quickly before.

Cheers

V
  • #329,174
  • Nov 19, 2010 9:01am Nov 19, 2010 9:01am
Quoting Merry
Ok , bedankt voor delen van uw idee !

Graag gedaan!!
  • #329,175
  • Nov 19, 2010 9:02am Nov 19, 2010 9:02am
IMO. Big money is at major key price turning point levels.


Quoting essenza
i guess what it mean that any trader who didn't use leverage as we did as retail trader, so they must be very very rich. Where they come from:
1. could be Lucky las vegas gambler
2. could be 3rd world dictator
3. could be heir to the monarch
4. could be James Bretton like trader
5. could be pirates, mafia or yakuza who sell drugs
6. could be everyone who owned 90% of world wealth in their bank account

Hope this help
  • #329,176
  • Nov 19, 2010 9:04am Nov 19, 2010 9:04am
Quoting Z3iz3i
What would you say?

Hourly close:

< 1.3650 - short
> 1.3650 - long
Hourly close at 1.3651, now?
In forex, one currency is always up!
  • #329,177
  • Nov 19, 2010 9:04am Nov 19, 2010 9:04am
pfff i was too greedy so instead of getting 100 pips i got 20...that friday is killing me lol


So now we will be probably see an upmove...weak upmove then next week the big fall.

A close below 1,3680 on daily might bring us to 1,3300 in the days/weeks ahead. And with this H1 distribution going on i really think so...we'll see
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #329,178
  • Nov 19, 2010 9:07am Nov 19, 2010 9:07am
Quoting kuroro001
pfff i was too greedy so instead of getting 100 pips i got 20...that friday is killing me lol


So now we will be probably see an upmove...low upmove then next week the big fall.

LOL, Been there done that. How about giving back a whole weeks pips on a friday but not this time. I'm keeping them this week.

  • #329,179
  • Nov 19, 2010 9:08am Nov 19, 2010 9:08am
Quoting essenza
is it monthly support?, fundamentally i hesitate to go long. Technically i'm sideways. If i have to gamble i will pick short
I don't know about monthly support, most likely not but its really defended.

If NY stock market recover, it may hold.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #329,180
  • Nov 19, 2010 9:08am Nov 19, 2010 9:08am
Quoting longshot_nl
Graag gedaan!!
Nogmaals bedankt !


















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