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EURUSD

  • #329,001
  • Nov 19, 2010 4:09am Nov 19, 2010 4:09am
Eur is tanking while Oil and Gold tries to pull it down.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #329,002
  • Nov 19, 2010 4:12am Nov 19, 2010 4:12am
Quoting valderrama
Will it happen again? Short frrom 37.13 just in case

can you please tell me number of EMA ?? thanks
  • #329,003
  • Nov 19, 2010 4:12am Nov 19, 2010 4:12am
Quoting Merry
TARGETZONE 1.3500
I don't think we'll see that soon ,
just a pullback to 23.6 fib of last 5hour's uptrend,
and perhaps another attempt at 3715
  • #329,004
  • Nov 19, 2010 4:15am Nov 19, 2010 4:15am
The thrust has not yet been fulfilled...............

CCI calls for further........... pullback ........ and then load......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 203 KB
  • #329,005
  • Nov 19, 2010 4:16am Nov 19, 2010 4:16am
Quoting kuroro001
It like to me as if the pair is being distributed...
If it is the case 1,3750 resistance might be the top (maybe 1,3700) and it should go back to 1,3450...if it is not the case then it will go to 1,3800 and above.
I won't play that scenario but i will be ready if it happens

I will make a chart explaining why i am thinking of it.
All high vol are either compressed bars (doji or no strong upbars) then there is downmove.
And the upside is not made with high vol...probably because its done before Frankfurt/London.

Its like sellers are there on all top...ready to make the pair drown.

We'll see that in the coming day/weeks.

PS : this chart is a little mess but its hard to explain everything
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-11-19_2104.png Size: 86 KB
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #329,006
  • Nov 19, 2010 4:19am Nov 19, 2010 4:19am
anyone trading GBP EUR in here? Starting to get a bit nervous holding my short! Has broken trend line on 1hr chart..
  • #329,007
  • Nov 19, 2010 4:23am Nov 19, 2010 4:23am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=325928

Target met. Short-term buy-side is happy now.

Long-term sell side starting to come in. Going to see price drop below 1.30's.. My personal opinion is at least $1.2690. Don't see any buying interest up here whatsoever.. but there still might spikes to the upside to run shorts if they come in too fast and too leveraged.

Good luck.
  • #329,008
  • Nov 19, 2010 4:25am Nov 19, 2010 4:25am
Quoting gleem
anyone trading GBP EUR in here? Starting to get a bit nervous holding my short! Has broken trend line on 1hr chart..
Its trending upside in short timeframes. If eur/usd does not come down and gbp/usd keeps coming down, then only choice for eur/gbp is to go up.

Thats the case right now.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #329,009
  • Nov 19, 2010 4:28am Nov 19, 2010 4:28am
I don't use volume in H1 but your point is very well explained. Just a few TA comments that struck me when I read your analysis.

Why 1.375x (' cause vol?) I don't want to mention different timeframes (daily which is stronger IMO is 1.378x ...) but if you check your H1 (or H4) you can see that 1.375x is inside bars trading and the actual R (or whatever you want to call it) is 30 or 40 pips above. In my experience, inside bars R or S are almost all the time overshoot areas (to hunt stops maybe? and/or trap bulls in this case when they are broken for a few mins/hours).

Also if today close above 1.368x it will signal a daily rejection of lows but thats a different story.

In any case, good chart and analysis. Best of luck.

sisse

Quoting kuroro001
All high vol are either compressed bars (doji or no strong upbars) then there is downmove.
And the upside is not made with high vol...probably because its done before Frankfurt/London.

Its like sellers are there on all top...ready to make the pair drown.

We'll see that in the coming day/weeks.

PS : this chart is a little mess but its hard to explain everything
Attachment
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #329,010
  • Nov 19, 2010 4:32am Nov 19, 2010 4:32am
there's a little movement...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #329,011
  • Nov 19, 2010 4:34am Nov 19, 2010 4:34am
The pair fell down 40 pips in a minute.
I wonder why.
  • #329,012
  • Nov 19, 2010 4:35am Nov 19, 2010 4:35am
Quoting kuroro001
All high vol are either compressed bars (doji or no strong upbars) then there is downmove.
And the upside is not made with high vol...probably because its done before Frankfurt/London.

Its like sellers are there on all top...ready to make the pair drown.

We'll see that in the coming day/weeks.

PS : this chart is a little mess but its hard to explain everything
Attachment
nice analysis, i support it, cos i shorted into the rally just now. for no apparent reason other than a gamble
  • #329,013
  • Nov 19, 2010 4:36am Nov 19, 2010 4:36am
Quoting kuroro001
All high vol are either compressed bars (doji or no strong upbars) then there is downmove.
And the upside is not made with high vol...probably because its done before Frankfurt/London.

Its like sellers are there on all top...ready to make the pair drown.

We'll see that in the coming day/weeks.

PS : this chart is a little mess but its hard to explain everything
Attachment
interesting approach.
  • #329,014
  • Nov 19, 2010 4:36am Nov 19, 2010 4:36am
Quoting Bernanke_Sr
The pair fell down 40 pips in a minute.
I wonder why.
Our boy Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
  • #329,015
  • Nov 19, 2010 4:37am Nov 19, 2010 4:37am
That news spike must have killed all small intraday traders but sadly it also killed any chances for my entry at 1.3667 that i have been waiting the last 3 hours .... oh well... let see

sisse

Quoting Bernanke_Sr
The pair fell down 40 pips in a minute.
I wonder why.
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #329,016
  • Nov 19, 2010 4:38am Nov 19, 2010 4:38am
Quoting disegnosys
Our boy Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
I think this is the news
http://www.forexlive.com/147557/all/...t-rates-50-bps
Addicted to FX
  • #329,017
  • Nov 19, 2010 4:38am Nov 19, 2010 4:38am
Quoting disegnosys
Our boy Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.

And China raises reserve requirements by 50bps at the same time, biggest hike in 4 years.
  • #329,018
  • Nov 19, 2010 4:38am Nov 19, 2010 4:38am
Quoting disegnosys
Our boy Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
Ahhh

must be my decoy speaking
  • #329,019
  • Nov 19, 2010 4:39am Nov 19, 2010 4:39am
PA is becoming a little bit nervous.
  • #329,020
  • Nov 19, 2010 4:39am Nov 19, 2010 4:39am
Quoting sisse
I don't use volume in H1 but your point is very well explained. Just a...
Thank you sisse.
Yes i have used 1,3750 because my analysis is based on H1.
And i used 1,3750 because that a point, or an area (1,3745-1,3765) where prices rallied then fall 300 pips the next few days, and it fell almost in straight line.
It is an important high swing for me.

But i might be totally wrong, and i am more intraday trader than a trader who "predict" a 300 pips fall

PS : Bernanke is speaking, here comes the volatility!

Best of luck to you as well
COT: The precious data ignored
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