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  • #327,701
  • Nov 17, 2010 10:41am Nov 17, 2010 10:41am
Quoting cloggie
Weber has no chance, he is refusing to support Tricky in his bond purchase program. And I like him for his stance, none of the EU politicians will do.
ofcource he is, dont forget that he is bound by law to follow budesbank requirements first (legislation pased in order to keep new hitlers out of power)
  • #327,702
  • Nov 17, 2010 10:41am Nov 17, 2010 10:41am
Quoting goods
Why the hell would they even talk about alliancing with the US for economy growth if they dont want a bailout? I think its smart they dont take the bailout however increasing taxes would put them in a deathspiral. Would they even be able to repay the bailout to the eurozone? I doubt it.
i think this is a long term project. drive away industry, make people poor and grateful for the saviour of a single government.

when all this is accomplished, europe invades switzerland.
  • #327,703
  • Nov 17, 2010 10:43am Nov 17, 2010 10:43am
Quoting cloggie
Big difference between Greece and Ireland, Greece is government debt and an inability to fund itself, with Ireland it is just bad loans at banks, the government is fully funded, that's why they are playing hardball.

Easiest solution? Let AIB fail, problem sorted.
take it easy one by one. yes i would add that the reason for the aid from abroad is not the same but the end result would be. Irland is capable to get through this crisis while greece wasn't
  • #327,704
  • Nov 17, 2010 10:46am Nov 17, 2010 10:46am
Quoting Pip to Pip
take it easy one by one. yes i would add that the reason for the aid from abroad is not the same but the end result would be. Irland is capable to get through this crisis while greece wasn't

There is a big difference, Ireland has a solid taxbase, Greece does not. Ireland is fully funded for another year, Greece is not. Ireland actually runs at a surplus right now, Greece does not. Ireland only has a shortfall of around 9 Bn in the latter part of next year, Greece is 100Bn.

There are big differences and that's why Ireland is taking the action it is. The media will move to Spain and Portugal now, that's where the real problem is.

Look at Irish spreads right now, the market is loving the Irish response. That is the only indicator that matters now.
  • #327,705
  • Nov 17, 2010 10:48am Nov 17, 2010 10:48am
Quoting cloggie
There is a big difference, Ireland has a solid taxbase, Greece does not. Ireland is fully funded for another year, Greece is not. Ireland actually runs at a surplus right now, Greece does not. Ireland only has a shortfall of around 9 Bn in the latter part of next year, Greece is 100Bn.

There are big differences and that's why Ireland is taking the action it is. The media will move to Spain and Portugal now, that's where the real problem is.
umm aren't we saying the same thing? that ireland is capabale to get through while greece isn't?
  • #327,706
  • Nov 17, 2010 10:49am Nov 17, 2010 10:49am
Just break & hold 3490 may be enough for the next target 3366 next day as usdx has the chance bull now & if not ,should be soon though .Other than H1 & M30 tf all have green signal for the break & down .
so eu shorts to keep sl at be with tp set .
fontu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx1.gif Size: 14 KB
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #327,707
  • Nov 17, 2010 10:52am Nov 17, 2010 10:52am
Hey Cloggie

Not saying I disagree with let AIB fail, do you believe UK should have done the same with it's banks ?

Cheers

V
  • #327,708
  • Nov 17, 2010 10:56am Nov 17, 2010 10:56am
Quoting Villonius
Hey Cloggie

Not saying I disagree with let AIB fail, do you believe UK should have done the same with it's banks ?

Cheers

V

There is a big difference with the UK banks, the LDR have always remained healthy and the majority of the loanbook is domestic unlike AIB. Ireland itself does not gain a lot by continue to prop up AIB, the UK and Eastern Europe will be keeping a close eye though.

They are not going to let it fail, it is just an hypothetical easy option, the rest of the EU won't let them. But they are craftily using it to their advantage, and rightfully so. They don't need nor want a bailout, it is being shoved down their throat, once they get preferential conditions they will accept, just political grandstanding. Ireland is on its own bringing the Finmeeting down, I love it.
  • #327,709
  • Nov 17, 2010 11:03am Nov 17, 2010 11:03am
Nobody messes with the Tri-Colour



Quoting cloggie
There is a big difference with the UK banks, the LDR have always remained healthy and the majority of the loanbook is domestic unlike AIB. Ireland itself does not gain a lot by continue to prop up AIB, the UK and Eastern Europe will be keeping a close eye though.

They are not going to let it fail, it is just an hypothetical easy option, the rest of the EU won't let them. But they are craftily using it to their advantage, and rightfully so. They don't need nor want a bailout, it is being shoved down their throat, once they get preferential conditions...
Attached Image
Disclaimer: Check your 1m charts
  • #327,710
  • Nov 17, 2010 11:07am Nov 17, 2010 11:07am
Quoting Hyru
I look at all for a general idea, really...
But if I went off the 5, the candle already closed below... but the 15 and 30 have yet to do anything... I guess the higher the time frame, the bigger the confirmation. Just trying to see which is typical and convenient
I did initially too, but in the end found it too confusing as each timeframe as its own trend and signals. Therefore, I have simplified it to 3 timeframes. The timeframes I gave, I use for my day trading.
  • #327,711
  • Nov 17, 2010 11:08am Nov 17, 2010 11:08am
3526 may be bounce....if not, back down to range lows 3465....
  • #327,712
  • Nov 17, 2010 11:09am Nov 17, 2010 11:09am
Still in a down trend, fueled by the decline in stocks and the problems in Ireland. We should look to buy near or a little bellow the daily lower bollinger band of the lows (seen on the chart below in orange). Previous low near 1,3450 is also a good support and an attractive level for going long on a short term basis. Firs level of resistance is near 1,3650.

See the chart here: http://www.ktd.ro/ktd/fx.php
  • #327,713
  • Nov 17, 2010 11:09am Nov 17, 2010 11:09am
Quoting cloggie
Big difference between Greece and Ireland, Greece is government debt and an inability to fund itself, with Ireland it is just bad loans at banks, the government is fully funded, that's why they are playing hardball.

Easiest solution? Let AIB fail, problem sorted, move all the problems to the shareholders. They have a LDR of close to 200% so savers are safe, there aren't any.
That's why everyone is trying so hard to get the Irish to accept a bialout - they are all so badly exposed to the Irish banks.
  • #327,714
  • Nov 17, 2010 11:13am Nov 17, 2010 11:13am
The 17 Things Worrying Investors Right Now (nice article)


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/The-17...&asset=&ccode=
Disclaimer: Check your 1m charts
  • #327,715
  • Nov 17, 2010 11:13am Nov 17, 2010 11:13am
Quoting cloggie
They are not going to let it fail, it is just an hypothetical easy option, the rest of the EU won't let them. But they are craftily using it to their advantage, and rightfully so. They don't need nor want a bailout, it is being shoved down their throat, once they get preferential conditions they will accept, just political grandstanding. Ireland is on its own bringing the Finmeeting down, I love it.
I seem to remember ann interview with the Ire Finance minister not that long ago saying they'd allocated the money for the Bank Bailouts and it wouldn't escalate, all under control... Dam crystal ball not working that day obviously!

Isn't there a danger that by bailing out banks that feck up with Goverment money (whichever Governement it is) that there is little to discourage them from carrying on in the same reckless ways once they've been bailed out ?

Not even sure if legislation has been brought in in this country to force speculative operations to be funded in a different way and ring fenced to prevent mistakes from carving up the entire banks operation.

V
  • #327,716
  • Nov 17, 2010 11:14am Nov 17, 2010 11:14am
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  • #327,717
  • Nov 17, 2010 11:15am Nov 17, 2010 11:15am
Quoting mfoste1
3526 may be bounce....if not, back down to range lows 3465....
I think that at this stage of the day, no new highs or lows are gonna be made or tested. I see price trading seideways between 3536 and 3513.
Hope I'm wrong and have a huge long and red daily candle LOL!!!
  • #327,718
  • Nov 17, 2010 11:17am Nov 17, 2010 11:17am
Quoting mfoste1
3526 may be bounce....if not, back down to range lows 3465....
H1 tf close over 3496 may do the bounce & if fail & close below 3490 all done for the bull over here for now perhaps ,
fontu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.gif Size: 10 KB
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #327,719
  • Nov 17, 2010 11:18am Nov 17, 2010 11:18am
Quoting maurofx
I think that at this stage of the day, no new highs or lows are gonna be made or tested. I see price trading seideways between 3536 and 3513.
Hope I'm wrong and have a huge long and red daily candle LOL!!!
I agree there is sideways momentum now, I believe the day is finished off. Thinking of closing my trade after any run.
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #327,720
  • Nov 17, 2010 11:19am Nov 17, 2010 11:19am
Quoting maurofx
I think that at this stage of the day, no new highs or lows are gonna be made or tested. I see price trading seideways between 3536 and 3513.
Hope I'm wrong and have a huge long and red daily candle LOL!!!

this is nothing more than consolidation before the next wave down....weak short covering. Smart shorts(dudes that trade yards) are targeting much, much lower....

watch out for afternoon sell-off....
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