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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #21,541
  • Nov 15, 2010 5:10pm Nov 15, 2010 5:10pm
Quoting fosking
Evening Traders!

Today we got a break through strong resistance at around 83.00 (monthly pivot R1 and former support 15/09).
We have also recently broke through the dominant descending trend line back from 05/05.
Any meaningful break higher (possible reversal) should take us up to 85.00 (support from 27/11/09 and monthly pivot R2).
Any further break higher and we will be looking to seek out 88.00 (but that's for a later time )

Daily
I agree with your analysis.....the break of 83 was important. Currently it's sitting at 83.07, but the fact that it has broken it once means that even if it dips below it again, it won't be so strong next time. A further push north from here will see me add another long, and, as you say, 85 should be the next target. I'm not sure how strong 84 will be, but I suspect that if we get that high, 84 may not hold it back. I'll keep adding longs once the previous long is in profit and protected, and longer term I'm looking for 95 and then 100.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,542
  • Nov 15, 2010 5:25pm Nov 15, 2010 5:25pm
Quoting realjumper
I agree with your analysis.....the break of 83 was important. Currently it's sitting at 83.07, but the fact that it has broken it once means that even if it dips below it again, it won't be so strong next time. A further push north from here will see me add another long, and, as you say, 85 should be the next target. I'm not sure how strong 84 will be, but I suspect that if we get that high, 84 may not hold it back. I'll keep adding longs once the previous long is in profit and protected, and longer term I'm looking for 95 and then 100.
We may be due for a retracement at around 83.60, but I would fully expect that any pullback to be well bid at around 82.00. Stops above 83.60 which will lead to short covering and fresh buyers to quickly take us to 85.00.

to your target of 95/100. It will take us a while to achieve it but we will get there!
  • #21,543
  • Nov 15, 2010 8:22pm Nov 15, 2010 8:22pm
Quoting fosking
We may be due for a retracement at around 83.60, but I would fully expect that any pullback to be well bid at around 82.00. Stops above 83.60 which will lead to short covering and fresh buyers to quickly take us to 85.00.

to your target of 95/100. It will take us a while to achieve it but we will get there!
True, but there is also the other way around... Many stops placed at or below 82.... if we just go near those stops... we might trigger something and -just like that- be in the 80-81 zone again.
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #21,544
  • Nov 15, 2010 11:12pm Nov 15, 2010 11:12pm
Quoting georgem
True, but there is also the other way around... Many stops placed at or below 82.... if we just go near those stops... we might trigger something and -just like that- be in the 80-81 zone again.
That would be nice, I have pending buy orders sitting down there. 79/80 would be great!
  • #21,545
  • Nov 15, 2010 11:23pm Nov 15, 2010 11:23pm
Quoting fosking
That would be nice, I have pending buy orders sitting down there. 79/80 would be great!
Exactly...

Dont get me wrong... I am not a bear... I so much want to go long USD JPY... but not at these levels... not without first visiting 79 something.

this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #21,546
  • Nov 16, 2010 3:46am Nov 16, 2010 3:46am
Noda to take decisive steps on forex
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,547
  • Nov 16, 2010 5:02am Nov 16, 2010 5:02am
Quoting realjumper
Noda to take decisive steps on forex

I have to say we do make a good team RJ,

Funny how we make it look so easy, collecting pips.
  • #21,548
  • Nov 16, 2010 5:52am Nov 16, 2010 5:52am
lets get ready to long @ 83.30
sl ~ 25, tp ~ 50
  • #21,549
  • Nov 16, 2010 6:43am Nov 16, 2010 6:43am
Quoting baggermatsch
lets get ready to long @ 83.30
sl ~ 25, tp ~ 50
how far dya think this bullrun's going to go? eurusd seems to be facing tonnes of resistance at the 3550 - 3560 level suggesting usd/jpy might start to slow down?
  • #21,550
  • Nov 16, 2010 6:44am Nov 16, 2010 6:44am
Quoting georgem
Exactly...

Dont get me wrong... I am not a bear... I so much want to go long USD JPY... but not at these levels... not without first visiting 79 something.

Ditto...
I missed going "big long" @ 80.50.. I went small long 81.10 and exited too early thinking it will dip down further before going way long.
  • #21,551
  • Nov 16, 2010 9:02am Nov 16, 2010 9:02am
Quoting realjumper
Noda to take decisive steps on forex
I don't get the purpose of these infantile & meaningless statements.

Just makes a case IMO for how futile and lost most politicians worldover are, while they live the good life, running once proud societies into the ground.

Somewhat related to the current economic climate in the world is a new book titled "Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail--and Why We Believe Them Anyway" - the article here is a step back look to the past century on what we've been told & what's in fact turned out to happen. Plenty of reference to the tough times that Great Britain has seen and perhaps something to draw one's own conclusions from: http://www.nationalpost.com/There+Wi...864/story.html

On that glum note, thanks for the post realjumper & happy trading to all!
  • #21,552
  • Nov 16, 2010 9:22am Nov 16, 2010 9:22am
If someone is interested in to read :
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...ut-debt-crisis
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #21,553
  • Nov 16, 2010 10:23am Nov 16, 2010 10:23am
Quoting athenaesword
how far dya think this bullrun's going to go? eurusd seems to be facing tonnes of resistance at the 3550 - 3560 level suggesting usd/jpy might start to slow down?
i dont know and i dont care about. the price is never to high or to low. i cant decide where are the major reversal point.. its really a pity
  • #21,554
  • Nov 16, 2010 4:15pm Nov 16, 2010 4:15pm
Quoting fosking
We may be due for a retracement at around 83.60, but I would fully expect that any pullback to be well bid at around 82.00. Stops above 83.60 which will lead to short covering and fresh buyers to quickly take us to 85.00.
Evening traders!

We touched our retracement area of 83.60 before coming back down to trade currently around 83.28. As I said in my previous post a run down to around 82.00 may be on the cards as long covering kicks in. Although just after the US bell, Ireland came out saying they don't want a bailout package. There will probably be a lot of volatility tomorrow on EUR/USD and as a result we may see more Dollar strength as we did today.
So for my chart to play out, I'm looking for a pull back to around 82.00 then a run up to 85.00, although fundamentals may not allow us to drop so far.

Daily
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  • #21,555
  • Nov 16, 2010 4:25pm Nov 16, 2010 4:25pm
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correction pending ...............
  • #21,556
  • Nov 16, 2010 4:42pm Nov 16, 2010 4:42pm
Quoting redsword11
Attachment


correction pending ...............
Red, how do you determine supply/demand zones?
  • #21,557
  • Nov 16, 2010 4:50pm Nov 16, 2010 4:50pm
Quoting SugarTrade
Red, how do you determine supply/demand zones?

visit thread -Price is everything under trading discussions
  • #21,558
  • Nov 16, 2010 6:10pm Nov 16, 2010 6:10pm
Quoting redsword11
visit thread -Price is everything under trading discussions
Appreciate it Red
  • #21,559
  • Nov 16, 2010 7:08pm Nov 16, 2010 7:08pm
Quoting fosking
Evening traders!

We touched our retracement area of 83.60 before coming back down to trade currently around 83.28. As I said in my previous post a run down to around 82.00 may be on the cards as long covering kicks in. Although just after the US bell, Ireland came out saying they don't want a bailout package. There will probably be a lot of volatility tomorrow on EUR/USD and as a result we may see more Dollar strength as we did today.
So for my chart to play out, I'm looking for a pull back to around 82.00 then a run up to 85.00, although fundamentals...
Nice

I wouldn't mind a pullback because I'll add another long at the conclusion of it, but I'm not sure if a pull back to 82.00 is on the cards. As you say, the fundamentals may not lot allow it to drop back that far. I have 82.81 ( plus a bit of slip perhaps ) as a pretty solid support line. Time will tell though.

I'm going to be very interested to see what happens at 85. I am expecting it to push further on up the chart, but that level may take a bit of a beating before it folds.

I like your analysis, thanks for sharing
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,560
  • Nov 17, 2010 4:38am Nov 17, 2010 4:38am
Quoting realjumper
Nice

I wouldn't mind a pullback because I'll add another long at the conclusion of it, but I'm not sure if a pull back to 82.00 is on the cards. As you say, the fundamentals may not lot allow it to drop back that far. I have 82.81 ( plus a bit of slip perhaps ) as a pretty solid support line. Time will tell though.

I'm going to be very interested to see what happens at 85. I am expecting it to push further on up the chart, but that level may take a bit of a beating before it folds.

I like your analysis, thanks for sharing...
Thank you realjumper!

It's my exact thoughts on 85.00. I've marked out the resistance line and reasons on the chart bellow why i think it will be strong resistance.
I will look to take profits at 85.00, wait for a retracement and then go long again. I will not be selling the retracement. 85.00 should see a lot of long covering and a lot of short orders so don't really want to fight it.

i would expect the pull back to around 83.60/83.00. 83.00 is a string possibility because of the monthly R1 pivot. If we got down to 83.00 all we would need is a move back up to 85.00 for form a perfect inverse Head & Shoulders formation on the Daily which again should be well bid on completion. After which I will be targeting 88.00. but will have to look out for strong resistance at 87.00 on the weekly chart.


Daily
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