EURUSD

Thanks for the heads up Cloggie! I really appreciate your posts and I have leaned a lot from you. I had though that may be you were agreeing with my 3305# as a good base if we get another large leg down.

That's why I keep track when I ask a question in FF...

Here is the chart uptade with FF supports. Sunsi and Mfoste 50%fib supports were broken without any effort. Now testing Mfoste 38% lets see if that holds.

How was the day paul?

sisse

hm...still so much to learn.

I had a sell order at 1,3623 and cancel it because reading FF and lost my confidence..

change entry level for 1,3660 and...we are where we are..

have a plan and trade your plan no matter what people are saying/writing

this happens to me sometimes as well. something i have to get over.

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/png.gif 2010-11-16_20h52_ EURUSD _ 090min _ (all ind).PNG (24.0 KB)



EUR-USD : RECAP

pivots + spezi

1.3891 1.3836
1.3821 1.3769
1.3750 1.3698
1.3704 1.3666 R1

1.3634 1.3657 <= central pp

1.3517 1.3648 S1
1.3563 1.3616
1.3447 1.3545
1.3330 1.3477

this has been our pivots (left column) for today


Breach of below 1.3545 and 1.3517 zone opened the path towards 1.3447 (S2) area ...



pivots + spezi

1.3816 1.3751
1.3736 1.3677
1.3656 1.3597
1.3608 1.3562 R1

1.3528 1.3552 <= central pp

1.3400 1.3541 S1
1.3448 1.3506
1.3320 1.3427
1.3192 1.3352

this is a preliminary gauge for the rest of the day

Lowest until now has been 1.3448 ... near term retracement minimum is waiting near 1.3506 and 1.3528 - 1.3541 area ...



Na schön ... für uns war der Tag mehr als ok so ...




;-)

Could I ask a question.

You said, "pivots + spezi".

What is spezi?

I have updated the EURUSD count on my blog. See pics there. Blog can be accessed through my signature.


This sharp move down today cleared a few things but opened the door for other guessing games :-)



Mr. Market taught us a good lesson. With "us" I mean all traders which did not get the top at 4282 for "risk free" shorting and waiting for a nice re-bounce to get the shorts they desired. Market sometimes is like a train in full speed. Do not get ahead of it :-)



So what have we seen today? I thought, that wave orange 1 down was finished and EURUSD was in a 3-3-5 flat correction. To get true EURUSD should have not taken this afternoons dive but rallying in 5 waves up to at least 3777.



Judging from what I see by looking at Awesome Oscillator, MACD and RSI on various time-frames (watch closely 15min time frame), two scenarios come to mind:



a) since 3776 we are in a red wave 5 (shown on the chart) which will conclude the first orange wave down. The structure of this red 5 is a little bit strange. It looks like a ending diagonal, but the last thrust down will not really fit into that count. Wave blue 4 of wave red 5 counts as a triangle, so the sharp move lower is the thrust out of the triangle. A triangle is the wave which precedes a terminating wave (the wave blue 5). So we might conclude, that we are in for a nice rebounce which should get us back to 3672 to 3794 (the area of the wave 4's of lesser degree)



b) by looking at a 15min chart we can notice, that the last drop produced a very low reading on Awesome Oscillator and RSI with nearly the same readings as the former readings of the wave 3. This is not typical for a wave 5. We have since days a divergence between price and MACD on 1h and 4h chart. There are two ways to get rid of this divergence: either with a move up in price, or with a sharp drop in price which will suck MACD down to appropriate levels. With the last drop we have reduced the divergence a bit.



When we look at a daily chart, a series of multiple 1-2's come to mind:



1 with (1,2,3,4,5)

2

3 with ((1-2)-(1-2-3-4- and 5 running (for round about 10 more hours)



So we might see wave 4 upside action. Target would be around 3672



On hourly chart we are at Murrey Math Trading Line (MMTL) -2/8 (p=256). Here it can go either ways, but chances would favor a reverse. Since price was at -2/8 with a speed angle of nearly 80°, and price could not manage to break through to the next octave, odds would also favor a reverse into its trading range.



On daily chart EURUSD is inside Kuomo and we have Kuomo support at 3385. Kuomo resistance at around 3800

October: More 33.2k people receiving unemployment benefits from the state in Portugal.

There are trading opportunities that lead you against the trend. They are dangerous, rare, and sometimes disappointing. But they exist. And if you are confident enough, experiences enough, and sure in your analysis, they are opportunities like the others. So let's go the example of one of the so called "against the trend" opportunities.

On November 01 I made my analysis on a chart, in which I suggested that we're gonna see another intraday rally in EURUSD. Here are the exact chart (chart 1).

And the market indeed rallied. Actually it passed just a little bit my target, but in general the forecast came true. What's more interesting what should you do, when your analysis tells you to expect a top, and that top actually occurs. After the market reached my target, I was waiting for some signs of at least an intraday reversal. The the market was grateful. I saw a downside movement, which had five waves in it, and then a sideways correction. It was enough for me. I waited til the market broke its low, and I opened my short position, with a stop loss level at the previous top. All I had to do was to wait for wave iii to develop. Having in mind the low time frame, the whole position was supposed to happen in a day.

(chart 2)

After I saw the sharp downside rally that I was waiting for, some corrective hesitation for wave iv, and a new low for wave v, I decided that it's enough for me. I took my near 150 pips in a few hours. Yes, the market continued to fall, but at that time, I wasn't completely confident that I should keep my position. That's what I do. When I am not totally sure in my position, I close and stop. Confidence is the most needed sense for successful trading.

expect volatility before OPEX
it's going to be a wild end of the week.

Well. I'm busy doing the happy dance. Maybe news will give us some pump-up bliss.....so bears can short the crap out of it from above. Here Bully, Bully, Bully. Bully? Seriously though...we're entering the bounce or crash zone. Don't let bias make you miss what price is telling you. We'll have our answer as to whether we have reversed or merely pulled back in the bullish trend. This pair should crash.....doesn't mean that it will. I'm short and will remain so until price tells me otherwise.

I don't get Elliott Wave theory. It just seems so random and subjective. Very loosely defined rules and large number of nested waves, you can make it fit any chart.

There are 3 people, who I see, post Elliott wave analysis on this thread and they are almost consistently wrong. And they also tend to spin on a dime and have a ready excuse for why their analysis failed.

I am curious if anyone on this thread actually gets consistent correct signals from Elliott wave?

it started

http://video.consilium.europa.eu/ind...sessionno=3169

Should anyone consider more polemics after the trail left today on this thread, may I suggest a calming pill in the form of some music.

Yeah, but when is it ever not wild?

in a speech this morning, EU President Herman Van Rompuy (poet, and writer of Japanese and Latin verse) warned that if Europe’s leaders mishandle the current crisis and allow the eurozone to break up, they will destroy European Union itself.
“We’re in a survival crisis. We all have to work together in order to survive with the euro zone, because if we don’t survive with the euro zone we will not survive with the European Union,” he said.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...ropes-leaders/

Sory folks, had a fault in the daily count. Here is the update:


When we look at a daily chart, a series of multiple 1-2's come to mind:

(1 with (1,2,3,4,5)
2
3 with ((1-2)-(1-2-3-4- and 5 running (for round about 10 more hours)

Correction:
1 with (1,2,3,4,5)
2
3 with ((1-2)-1-2-3 so far) The last 3 consists of 1,2,3,4,5 (with 5 running for about 8 more hours, but this candle can be itself part of a wave 4)


I have put a daily chart in that posting on my blog too.....

Somebody, somewhere is saying: "See, I told you this EZ shit was a f@$&ing stupid idea!"

Sure, but what exactly can they say when (1) Ireland up to this point has refused (on quite reasonable grounds) to take the pill, (2) Austria is refusing to pay the Greeks. I don't think a 'everything is gonna be OK' will do. Unfortunately, I am unable to connect to the broadcast, but I reckon nothing is going to change after the conference. You still have OPEX to get some volatility!

Brussels press conference started of with their dissapointment that they could not get Ireland to accept a bailout package. The Irish are just to proud to go cap in hand to the EU/IMF.

Eu wanted a deal, Ireland refused, we will have more confusion tomorrow in the markets. No deal, no security for the euro. Now lets see how the Irish spreads are going and let's see what the big ones are going to do Spain/Portugal/France/Italy.

Anyone selling dollars is of his rocker right now, keep an eye on the EU tomorrow. Lots more meetings tomorrow in Brussels.