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  • #326,581
  • Nov 16, 2010 3:09am Nov 16, 2010 3:09am
Quoting sibajnok
the EUR news will decide the direction :]
Yeh i guess...unless we see the same reaction as before...news is good so its going up for bears to step in...then down move.

I never trust a news
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #326,582
  • Nov 16, 2010 3:13am Nov 16, 2010 3:13am
Quoting kuroro001
Yeh i guess...unless we see the same reaction as before...news is good so its going up for bears to step in...then down move.

I never trust a news
yeah, first reactions are usually fake
  • #326,583
  • Nov 16, 2010 3:17am Nov 16, 2010 3:17am
sure looking like dicking about 3600 before news...
  • #326,584
  • Nov 16, 2010 3:18am Nov 16, 2010 3:18am
Morning traders ,
I'am reading well documented fundamental analysis that goes into great detail .
Personaly I see the explanation for recent price moves a bit more simple.
1) weeks before the qe2 announcement we were made aware 1 trillion dollar priced in
2) few days before announcement news reporting 500 billion expected to be the value
3) somehow people started talking about 500 billion instead of the previous 1 trillion.
4) when 600 billion figure was announced for some reason traders seem to think that was bullish.
5) I did at the time post a question on the forum why was this bullish..
I didnt see a reply
6)Obviously 600 is more than the recently touted 500bill but its nearly half what we were informed had already been priced in weeks previous.
So I think thats quite a simple explanation of the recent price action.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #326,585
  • Nov 16, 2010 3:19am Nov 16, 2010 3:19am
Possible bat with fib confluince comming up.
not perfect and a little premature though.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #326,586
  • Nov 16, 2010 3:21am Nov 16, 2010 3:21am
Quoting ak4x
Dude... it (usually) only takes me a few minutes at most, and sometimes just seconds, to figger out if someone needs to be iggied or not.

But then you also have Moe in your buddy list...

ADD: Hope this helps... read my siggy and Just Do It.
You would be surprised how fast I can use my iggy, even without that last sentence of your remark. Only I must first read something unpleasant and since I seldom read Gator, I probably omitted something before.

And yes, Moe was one of the most amusing contributors here. For your understanding, I am not going here for wisdom (pretty rare stuff here) but for amusement during boring periods. And for that purpose Moe, Quicksilver or DailyFx certainly served much better than current contributors. So bye too, Ak, your wish just being fulfilled...
  • #326,587
  • Nov 16, 2010 3:21am Nov 16, 2010 3:21am
Quoting paul1
Morning traders ,
I'am reading well documented fundamental analysis that goes into great detail .
Personaly I see the explanation for recent price moves a bit more simple.
1) weeks before the qe2 announcement we were made aware 1 trillion dollar priced in
2) few days before announcement news reporting 500 billion expected to be the value
3) somehow people started talking about 500 billion instead of the previous 1 trillion.
4) when 600 billion figure was announced for some reason traders seem to think that was bullish.
5) I did at the time post...
I've seen reports that even that 600bln figure will get scaled back if US economic data continues to improve...
  • #326,588
  • Nov 16, 2010 3:22am Nov 16, 2010 3:22am
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  • #326,589
  • Nov 16, 2010 3:22am Nov 16, 2010 3:22am
Okay i am trying a short covering there...not my style though.
But i do not like H1 last candle. Even though it bounced off supply area (1,3620 zone) and closed in the red i could not make new hourly low close.

No need of a chart...i think the smart people should understand it
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #326,590
  • Nov 16, 2010 3:25am Nov 16, 2010 3:25am
Quoting DMA Trader
well it's to early for that. but it's an idea. at list i'm not shorting until i see some pullback.
anyway 1.367 resistance
and then if we get to 1.37-1.373

if we get there there are sellers again. so i'm more into a range sausage factory type for the next week. i would not do a lot since it's Friday. the G20 is done so Obama doesn't need to have a strong dollar now to criticize China or others.

also POMO 100b starting so traders needs to trade the future.

just some thoughs.
this is exactly how a sausage factory looks like
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #326,591
  • Nov 16, 2010 3:26am Nov 16, 2010 3:26am
Quoting paul1
Morning traders ,
I'am reading well documented fundamental analysis that goes into great detail .
Personaly I see the explanation for recent price moves a bit more simple.
1) weeks before the qe2 announcement we were made aware 1 trillion dollar priced in
2) few days before announcement news reporting 500 billion expected to be the value
3) somehow people started talking about 500 billion instead of the previous 1 trillion.
4) when 600 billion figure was announced for some reason traders seem to think that was bullish.
5) I did at the time post...
The fundamental reason QE2 1Trln were bullish is with lower yields on US Tsy , EURUSD is pushed up. Then the 500/600 bln story changed the scenario (less buying means less power to keep yields relatively low). This night when Dudley talked that a QE exit is years away on the future, we got that spike to the 1.3650 area: if there is no exit in near future, this means the Fed buying Tsy should keep US yields relatively lower vs. EUR area. Unfortunately during these couple of days, after the open letters by some economist to Berny, US bond traders realized that it's not so easy keeping up with these wannabe buyings without creating inflation and other distortions...so there's a clear discussion over the scenario. that's another reason for the ZB an ZN recent downlegs.
  • #326,592
  • Nov 16, 2010 3:29am Nov 16, 2010 3:29am
Quoting FibbinArchie
sure looking like dicking about 3600 before news...
Hello FB hope your collecting pips Strong probability they will use this mornings eur news to confirm the direction.
As usual slow fakey to make sure your limit orders get triggered in the wrong direction ,then a volatile break in the correct direction designed to not trigger your stops and also not trigger any limit orders that want to get in on the correct direction.

Its just what i observe all the big moves seem designed to keep us out.
See how easy it is to get an entry when its doing nothing lol 10 to 20 pippers are easy entries unless your already in.
Big moves are extremely difficult unless its just my broker?
Does others have issues with limits and stops on volatile breaks?
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #326,593
  • Edited 3:43am Nov 16, 2010 3:30am | Edited 3:43am
Quoting bbakker
How about seeing a chart? You don't see many charts on this thread with reasoning behind the calls.

Just simply stating short or long with gut instinct is the order of the day. There is no real technical analysis here, apart from a couple of posters.

My clock is ticking...
what kind of clock do you have a GMT master or a Daytona like cloggie?..........

are you from the same club of bad attitud guys and arrogant manners?........

my charts are for my eyes only, my mentor's recomendation, I had posted a naked one some where in here earlier but if you need calls there is a comercial tread some where in the FF........
The Chonchy
  • #326,594
  • Nov 16, 2010 3:34am Nov 16, 2010 3:34am
Quoting FibbinArchie
I've seen reports that even that 600bln figure will get scaled back if US economic data continues to improve...
Yes me too leaves me more bearish on this pair.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #326,595
  • Nov 16, 2010 3:35am Nov 16, 2010 3:35am
Gm,

I always make the same argument. IMO, there are 2 main fundamental sides in a pair (there are lot more). You are only mentioning the dollar side. Although, as you clearly mentioned, most of the speculative part of QE2 was already priced (if you are interested check the fundamental weekly chart I posted a few times), but the long term effects of printing money like mad is inflationary meaning that will weaken a currency. That's why QE2 or 3 or 4 will have serious consequences in the long run for the dollar.

However, on the other side, you have the euro side. Debt problems and therefore structural problems in the EZ are back on the table. Exaggerate or not is not important, the issue is that in the last 2 weeks (just after QE2 was clear) is the one that is weighting heavier on the moves.

If you put both in context, all the long term bullish in the pair, is not only cap, but pushed down because Euro short term problems (or perceived problems)that can have severe repercussion on the long term outlook of the EZ.

sisse

Quoting paul1
Morning traders ,
I'am reading well documented fundamental analysis that goes into great detail .
Personaly I see the explanation for recent price moves a bit more simple.
1) weeks before the qe2 announcement we were made aware 1 trillion dollar priced in
2) few days before announcement news reporting 500 billion expected to be the value
3) somehow people started talking about 500 billion instead of the previous 1 trillion.
4) when 600 billion figure was announced for some reason traders seem to think that was bullish.
5) I did at the time post...
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #326,596
  • Nov 16, 2010 3:35am Nov 16, 2010 3:35am
Quoting Seki
can anybody explain with simple words what is butterfly formation? What does it show?
Thanks.
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=forex+butterfly+formation
  • #326,597
  • Nov 16, 2010 3:40am Nov 16, 2010 3:40am
this pa is far too thrilling for me. pendings set, i take a nap.
  • #326,598
  • Nov 16, 2010 3:41am Nov 16, 2010 3:41am
Quoting paulg
The fundamental reason QE2 1Trln were bullish is with lower yields on US Tsy , EURUSD is pushed up. Then the 500/600 bln story changed the scenario (less buying means less power to keep yields relatively low). This night when Dudley talked that a QE exit is years away on the future, we got that spike to the 1.3650 area: if there is no exit in near future, this means the Fed buying Tsy should keep US yields relatively lower vs. EUR area. Unfortunately during these couple of days, after the open letters by some economist to Berny, US bond traders...
Thankyou very much paul even though you have not been on this forum so long i can tell from your post your well educated in the fundamentals.
Unlike some, I judge people on the content of there posts not how long they been a member or the amount of vouches .
Again thankyou for your explanation.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #326,599
  • Nov 16, 2010 3:42am Nov 16, 2010 3:42am
Quoting paul1
Hello FB hope your collecting pips Strong probability they will use this mornings eur news to confirm the direction.
As usual slow fakey to make sure your limit orders get triggered in the wrong direction ,then a volatile break in the correct direction designed to not trigger your stops and also not trigger any limit orders that want to get in on the correct direction.

Its just what i observe all the big moves seem designed to keep us out.
See how easy it is to get an entry when its doing nothing lol 10 to 20 pippers are easy entries unless your...
Hey Paul, how's it going? Yesterday was not too bad but so far this morning no clean entries had a cpl of entries that I exited at b/e, I don't like this sausage factory PA.

I had my finger on the trigger to go long in early asia, but was holding out for 3550, so missed the good entry, wasn't 100% focused as there was a good film on tv, black hawk down.

We should get some direction when this EZ data comes out...
  • #326,600
  • Nov 16, 2010 3:42am Nov 16, 2010 3:42am
........my clock is ticking, ......who the f%$# this arrogant P5$#ck think he is, there it goes my F%$# ing blood pressure up to the sky, wtf man where is this clowns come from?, ....... in bundles or some........
The Chonchy
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