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  • #325,441
  • Nov 14, 2010 10:28am Nov 14, 2010 10:28am
Quoting mfoste1
BOND YIELDS ARE RISING! THAT MEANS INTEREST RATES ARE RISING....the market is correcting itself


the fed is facing immense pressures from every country to stop monetary easing
khm...khm... look at this :

After the introduction of POMO refinancing program began to grow profitability in thirty bonds.

After the Fed agreed to buy Treasury bonds at $ 600 billion, starting QE2, began to grow not only the long-term rates on Treasury bonds. In fact, his actions the Fed reduces the control of long-term rates.

But on November 11 happened at all "scary" ... rates on thirty-year mortgage, according to Freddie Mac made on October 11, 4.17%, and rates on Treasury bonds maturing 30 years was ... 4.25% (average for the week of 4.22%), and on Friday the rate rose to 4.26%.

It turns out a mortgage for 30 years, we have already more attractive than Treasury debt at the same time.

Such are the peculiarities of the debt of the U.S. market you see?
No crystal ball. I read the cards.
  • #325,442
  • Nov 14, 2010 10:36am Nov 14, 2010 10:36am
Quoting stocktrader
Without QE1, the economy will be in deep shit....

Equities market will collapse totally without QE1..

QE1 caused the market to rise steadily since March 2009

We will see QE2 bringing the exact same effect.
Guys you are missing the point. QE is not because of Economy, but

because there is simply not enough buyers for this worthless sh*T..

And FEDs need to keep borrowing to service existing Debt.

So? Interest rates cannot be raised, but Instead they will continue

to print they way out. That's why so called ""QE's" just new terming

for old mighty money printing and there will be many more of them to come..

You cannot stop pyramid scheme. It's too late.
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  • #325,443
  • Nov 14, 2010 10:41am Nov 14, 2010 10:41am
Quoting grashid
thanks mate....

i think u r one of those who really know what i mean since last 5-6 week....

let people judge...
lol grashid ... I was just kidding with you on the bragging

I have been with you on the bear camp for 5 weeks now , but in that range we had made pips both ways , with an average daily range of 160 pip it is pretty easy to make money on eu these days
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #325,444
  • Nov 14, 2010 10:44am Nov 14, 2010 10:44am
Noted. Good info.
Quoting condorito
Greece received a record breaking bailout the weekend of May 2nd . On the first trading day after the bailout announcement was made, the EUR/USD plunged 100 pips which is not that significant but over the course of that week, it fell as much as much as 750 pips. Between May 3rd (the Monday after the announcement) and June 7th , the EUR/USD fell approximately 10 percent. However, as sovereign debt worries receded and Greece faded from the minds of global investors, the EUR/USD stabilized and began a risk assumption rally that brought the currency...
  • #325,445
  • Nov 14, 2010 10:44am Nov 14, 2010 10:44am
Quoting mima
Just on Nov 11, 2010 EURUSD went down 150 pips or so ...for some traders it is significant move for some is not...on monthly chart some would say it is not noticeable...
If PIIGS doesn't stop to make problems in Europe no one can say when EURUSD will stop moving down...Drawing lines on the chart doesn't dictate where price will go...Professionals who move the price have last word.
err 150 pip is the current 21 day average .. it moves that every day

The one i do not get is GBP .. it moved 200 pip on friday... I took long for daily range at 100 pip ( got in 50 pip off the bottom but had to wait for a test for entry) and it went 50 pip higher than my exit
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #325,446
  • Edited 10:56am Nov 14, 2010 10:45am | Edited 10:56am
Quoting intery
khm...khm... look at this :

After the introduction of POMO refinancing program began to grow profitability in thirty bonds.

After the Fed agreed to buy Treasury bonds at $ 600 billion, starting QE2, began to grow not only the long-term rates on Treasury bonds. In fact, his actions the Fed reduces the control of long-term rates.

But on November 11 happened at all "scary" ... rates on thirty-year mortgage, according to Freddie Mac made on October 11, 4.17%, and rates on Treasury bonds maturing 30 years was ... 4.25% (average for the week...
us bond yields have been rising for about 10 days now....esp on US 2 year, hint hint....so the fed bought 7 bn on friday and bonds yields soared? cmon....why do US bond yields rise?, why are people buying dollars? Hint, think of domestic risk and global risk....

A lot of reasoning why traders lose is that they don't understand the underlying fundamentals that are driving currencies, however complicated they may be lol. You must understand what is going on behind the curtain.
  • #325,447
  • Nov 14, 2010 10:52am Nov 14, 2010 10:52am
Daily:
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  • #325,448
  • Nov 14, 2010 10:52am Nov 14, 2010 10:52am
Quoting SkyzerFX
Forex Pro's sentiment 52% bullish 48% bearish

And FF sentiment 99% bearish that's why I'm buying.
as you talk about being a long term trader

euro is in a DOWN trend on the monthly. we did not even have the horsepower yet to test the utl at 1.44.

In fact looking at the weekly right now and as posted yesterday we have major selling hitting in this 1.4100 area... and it just happens to be a 61.8% retrace of the large move down

Nothing moves in a straight line , can euro go to 1.5 form here sure ... can it go to 1.1 or even .8 sure ....but as stated before every thing we need to know is in the charts

as for me... well i have some long term things going on but mostly i day trade

with 160 pip range eu 150 gu and 15 points es per day and vsa as my weapon who needs the hassle of swing trading?

The market is fickle and as seen friday sentiment can change for a 200 pip move in a heart beat ... or was it a heart beat ??? lol I posted many chart in the 48 hr leading to that relief rally on friday about buyers at 1.3600 to 3650 area , the asia markets tanked including gu but eu did NOTHING ... very simple buy when you think about PA. When everything else tanks and euro , the bearish pair of all moves in 30 pip range you got to start thinking relief rally
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #325,449
  • Nov 14, 2010 10:55am Nov 14, 2010 10:55am
Quoting SkyzerFX
,I'm not saying EUR is good, but who the heck and why would buy

USD right now during QE and no interest rates forever. Who wants to

load on USD and sit tight in devaluating currency? I wish IMF

could bailout whoever, like US always does and move on.. Market then

going to go through the roof alone with EUR and everything else, but

otherwise money has noway to go.. Sit in cash, maybe for few days, and

then what? We'll see..

one point for you to consider . without all the bells and whistles of financial talk

price of EURUSD was 1.4050 before announce of this QE .
I even recall you at price 1.42 getting excited calling 1.5 and beyond . and look where are we now ! this should ring at least small alarm bell .

after 1 week of the announce went to 1.3570
the spike to 42 levels can be considered dumb money jumping in on the news that looks bearish on USD.
the smart money sold the Euro and bought the USD.

it took them 2 months to rally 1400 points.
it took them 5 days to go down 700 points .!

smart money never loses , and they have their reasons to be on one side of the market or another.

for long term predictions on this specific pair at this time , I don't have a clue!. I have some clue on others and its bullish for USD.



BUT for the USDx it defenatly created a bottom . will it start a rally or reverse down its up to the market to decide .

at the end of day whomever sold USD on the QE2 announcement , is now a big loser . on all charts againest all currencies .

so don't bother much about analyzing the news and concentrate more on the effect .

with all respect I am not a financial analyst and my father in law is PHD in economics and he wrote many books and still he has no clue which currency will be higher against other one. (I couldn't benefit from him ).


for me i am on the bear side since 1.4000 even after the news .
if charts show us something else then i will change my plans .
I recommend you be more flexible with PA .
700 pips is big number even for medium term trader .
I SEE YOU !!
  • #325,450
  • Nov 14, 2010 10:57am Nov 14, 2010 10:57am
Quoting malcolmb14
as you talk about being a long term trader

euro is in a DOWN trend on the monthly. we did not even have the horsepower yet to test the utl at 1.44.
Hold your horses.

You kidding? It's not even in downtrend on Daily Yet, unless lower

uptrend band is broken. Look at my chart above.
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  • #325,451
  • Nov 14, 2010 10:57am Nov 14, 2010 10:57am
Quoting SkyzerFX
Guys you are missing the point. QE is not because of Economy, but

because there is simply not enough buyers for this worthless sh*T..
....

You cannot stop pyramid scheme. It's too late.
yaeh, u r right.
but other industrialized countries aren't much better, look @england, and europe is still in the debt-crisis (not only that, but also that there are big differences between the member states)
Pecunia non olet
  • #325,452
  • Nov 14, 2010 10:58am Nov 14, 2010 10:58am
Quoting SkyzerFX
If Ireland will be bailed out by IMF/ECB same as Greece, EU will go through

the roof.
ok, but it aint looking god for you.. but if you hold 3460 i may be with you. at least for a few hundred pips.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #325,453
  • Nov 14, 2010 11:00am Nov 14, 2010 11:00am
I guess if the usd is so crap those professional players that are buying in the 76 area are complete idiots ....

if we see one down week on the dx testing 77.5 on low vol I am all in ....thing 83.3 test

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  • #325,454
  • Nov 14, 2010 11:02am Nov 14, 2010 11:02am
Those trader that trades as a intraday trader truly based on technical... what is the use of fundamental for them...?? Whether its going below 1.2500 or 1.6000?
  • #325,455
  • Nov 14, 2010 11:03am Nov 14, 2010 11:03am
Quoting SkyzerFX
Hold your horses.

You kidding? It's not even in downtrend on Daily Yet, unless lower

uptrend band is broken. Look at my chart above.
excuse me again Skyzer.
the very basic 4week candle strategy that works on most charts .
I bet all new traders have read this strategy .

on weekly chart you have a weekly candle that made a low price lower than the last 5 weekly candles not only 4 .
and it even closed below the lowest price of last 4 week candles.

trust me its big alarm !.

if you just follow this system last 2 years long term trading both ways you would make more than 1000 pip a year !.
I SEE YOU !!
  • #325,456
  • Nov 14, 2010 11:06am Nov 14, 2010 11:06am
Quoting SkyzerFX
Hold your horses.

You kidding? It's not even in downtrend on Daily Yet, unless lower

uptrend band is broken. Look at my chart above.
LOL sky we will make a trader out of you yet .. .as of now you still think like an investor , that is why your buy and hold gold and silver play worked well

daily chart eu is in a down trend

the spike to 4200 was ... no .. really A BULL TRAP ..how could that be... things like that do not really happen in the market do they ? lol

1.3900 is key as of now unless that is broken 1.3380 to 1.3280 1st stop

I hope Grashid and the long term bears on the bear train

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  • #325,457
  • Nov 14, 2010 11:07am Nov 14, 2010 11:07am
EUR/USD DAILY CHART
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  • #325,458
  • Nov 14, 2010 11:07am Nov 14, 2010 11:07am
Quoting SkyzerFX
Hold your horses.

You kidding? It's not even in downtrend on Daily Yet, unless lower

uptrend band is broken. Look at my chart above.
depending on tf. since 2008 my left side is higher then my r side (downtrend). since 2007 on the usdx just the opposite (uptrend).
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #325,459
  • Nov 14, 2010 11:09am Nov 14, 2010 11:09am
Quoting malcolmb14
if we see one down week on the dx testing 77.5 on low vol I am all in ....thing 83.3 test

Attachment
I dunno about EUR but this sh*t will go right below 75 in next couple

of weeks.
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  • #325,460
  • Nov 14, 2010 11:15am Nov 14, 2010 11:15am
Quoting SkyzerFX
This is all depends what TF you are looking at. Theoretically more you

trade more you going to lose and that's the f* guarantee!

I'll buy OIL now and sell it over 100$/b in 6 month, without

sleepless nights.. Easy money.. And you go ahead and guess which way

fly goes in the next 12 -24 hours (I don't know! And I will never know, nor anyone else on this thread!)

You all just can GUESS!!! And that's your best shot!

All I know, it's going to be higher. I don't know, if this going to

be tomorrow or Month from now, but I can wait, no problem..

That's...
ill sell you all the Louisiana sweet crude you like if you lock it in at 86..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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Yaruki