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Unimportant fellow's equally unimportant journal v2.0

  • #121
  • Nov 7, 2010 9:26pm Nov 7, 2010 9:26pm
Quoting mizuno
Moving my stop just behind the border. It is not exactly break-even but it's close enough so I could not worry about it. Not that I think about it, 1.38 might be a bit too optimistic. The day's range extended to 110% today, so perhaps I already had an optimal exit point. Either way I'm leaving it run as it is.
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Next, there seems to be forming a diamond like formation on USD/JPY. It looks far for complete yet, and is a long shot. The main diagonal of the possible diamond so far is pointing down, so there's high probability...
Looks like the diamond's borders are defined now. It looks a bit rough, but I can treat the right side as a triangle on it's own. If I'm not mistaken the diamond is a single diagonal one, though it looks a bit similar to a dual-diagonal. The main diagonal is pointing down, so there's a good chance for a bullish move. No reverse planned yet as it would need an intraday stop, and I don't like putting intraday-stop orders in advance as I need to see the intraday high/low above/below which I'd place my stop.
Buy order at 80.80, SL - 80.62.
By the way, I've still got the USD/JPY monthly 18.4/symmetry formation order in it's original place, which you can see on the charts.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY diamond buy H3 08112010.PNG Size: 105 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY diamond buy H1 08112010.PNG Size: 117 KB
  • #122
  • Nov 7, 2010 9:31pm Nov 7, 2010 9:31pm
Quoting mizuno
My EUR/USD trade on the other hand is not doing so well anymore, however, I have the stop at break even, and with the EUR/AUD trade I have all of my losses over the past 4 weeks covered, plus I'm a little bit in profit. Feels good. So, I'm not worried about this trade at all, and I'm leaving it run as it is. Perhaps I'll change my mind later on.

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Got stopped out at break even on my EUR/USD diamond break-out buy.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD diamond buy stop out H1 08112010.PNG Size: 101 KB
  • #123
  • Nov 7, 2010 9:33pm Nov 7, 2010 9:33pm
Quoting mizuno
Looks like we had an intraday now broken diamond on AUD/CAD. The left side can be drawn in two ways. Main diagonal pointing down, so the diamond should continue going up. Let's see if it reaches it's MOT. For watching only. If I were to enter long I'd put my stop at 81.66, behind the low of the second minor diagonal.

Attachment
It extended upwards more than the entire length of the main diagonal.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY intraday diamond outcome M15 07112010.PNG Size: 106 KB
  • #124
  • Nov 8, 2010 11:45pm Nov 8, 2010 11:45pm
Hi there! just stopping by to say hello!

Ive finally decided to stop lurking on FF and start posting.
I have read most of your journal and am familiar with igrok method and just want to say good work and keep it up.

Do you mind if i ask what sort of progress you are making with you account?

My trading has really turned a corner in the last 12 months when I decided to focus solely on wedge/triangle breakouts similar to the igrok method.

anyway keep up the good work!
  • #125
  • Nov 9, 2010 8:01am Nov 9, 2010 8:01am
Quoting bdan
Hi there! just stopping by to say hello!

Ive finally decided to stop lurking on FF and start posting.
I have read most of your journal and am familiar with igrok method and just want to say good work and keep it up.

Do you mind if i ask what sort of progress you are making with you account?

My trading has really turned a corner in the last 12 months when I decided to focus solely on wedge/triangle breakouts similar to the igrok method.

anyway keep up the good work!
Hey Bdan. Thanks for the kind words. Good job with ending the lurking, just make sure you don't stop posting! I'd suggest you start your own journal, as I have found it's one of the best things a trader can do. As for the progress of my account, well, over the past four weeks I was in the negative but I recovered all of the losses last week, and I'm back at where I started. So in other words, I have some ammunition to shoot with, I just need to be careful with my targets.
  • #126
  • Nov 9, 2010 8:31am Nov 9, 2010 8:31am
Quoting mizuno
Looks like the diamond's borders are defined now. It looks a bit rough, but I can treat the right side as a triangle on it's own. If I'm not mistaken the diamond is a single diagonal one, though it looks a bit similar to a dual-diagonal. The main diagonal is pointing down, so there's a good chance for a bullish move. No reverse planned yet as it would need an intraday stop, and I don't like putting intraday-stop orders in advance as I need to see the intraday high/low above/below which I'd place my stop.
Buy order at 80.80, SL - 80.62.
By the...
Got stopped out. So perhaps this was not a diamond at all, and simply a triangle. Next buy order - 80.45 with stop at 80.20. It is based on symmetry and I think visually, from the chart in my previous post, it shouldn't be a problem to figure out why the entry order is where it is, and the same for the stop.
Don't have my eyes on anything else at the moment.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY diamond-triangle buy m30 09112010.PNG Size: 96 KB
  • #127
  • Nov 10, 2010 1:06am Nov 10, 2010 1:06am
yeh as soon as im not a "junior member" I can start my own thread and I will be writing a journal. Im not sure how many posts i need to make but never mind, im in no rush.

I see you trade alot of the diamond formations. I tend to just see them as triangles as long as they meet my entry rules.

I wait for 3 touches to make a trendline. Do you do something similar?
  • #128
  • Nov 10, 2010 6:23am Nov 10, 2010 6:23am
Quoting bdan
yeh as soon as im not a "junior member" I can start my own thread and I will be writing a journal. Im not sure how many posts i need to make but never mind, im in no rush.

I see you trade alot of the diamond formations. I tend to just see them as triangles as long as they meet my entry rules.

I wait for 3 touches to make a trendline. Do you do something similar?
I think it is important to consider the formation as a diamond if you are able to define it, as inside the diamond there's information encoded which tells you the probability in which way the diamond will get broken, given that the diamond is a single diagonal one. Here's an example from Igrok's charts:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Weekly rape 1 CHF A0-FX.jpg Size: 84 KB

The main diagonal is the longest price movement line inside the diamond, in this example it is pointing up, and most of the time the diamond gets broken in the opposite direction of the main diagonal.

As for TL's, yes, three touches make a trendline valid. However, when you have formations with two borders, if one of them has three touches and the other has two, then there's a good chance that the price will bounce off the TL that has two touches, provided that the formation has correct up-down-up-down move sequence. This is the reasoning why I entered the USD/JPY trade, in which I got stopped out. Though trading the breaks of fully formed formations is probably the safest way.

I think you need less than 10 posts to become a full member.
  • #129
  • Edited 6:59am Nov 10, 2010 6:48am | Edited 6:59am
After the fact: Not sure if this was the case, but it looks like we had an early Asian session 18.4 on USD/JPY.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY possible early 18.4 M5 10112010.PNG Size: 82 KB


As for the diamond, in the end this is how it looks like:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY after the fact diamond outcome H3 10112010.PNG Size: 110 KB


By the way, if we take the red border, and put it on the low of the first minor diagonal (edit: Actually that's not exactly the first minor diagonal), we get the projection of the second minor diagonal's low. Of course, this observation is completely useless as this is after the fact.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY diamond projection H3 10112010.PNG Size: 111 KB


And unfortunately my 18.4 monthly buy trade did not get triggered, so I'm removing that order as the price is going without me already.
  • #130
  • Nov 10, 2010 3:47pm Nov 10, 2010 3:47pm
Just applied 18.4 on USDCAD on the basis of a weekly 18.4, with a stop below the month's and week's low. You can see the entry and the stop placement on the charts. Current 12AWR at 53%.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD weekly 18.4 H3 10112010.PNG Size: 117 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD weekly 18.4 M30 10112010.PNG Size: 107 KB



Also there's a divergence on H1 pointing to 1.025, though I'm not sure yet if I'll use it as a target. I'll probably base the target on AWR instead.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD div H1 10112010.jpg Size: 106 KB
  • #131
  • Edited 8:46pm Nov 10, 2010 8:28pm | Edited 8:46pm
Just sold USDCHF on the break of a TL. Stop above the current day's high. No reverse planned. Not exactly sure of a TP yet, but I'm putting one at 0.9615 which is based on ADR, just in case the price gets there, though I doubt that. The trade is against the MMOTW but is in the same direction as the month's main move. Let's see what happens.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF TL break sell M15 11112010.PNG Size: 91 KB


Edit: Price has jumped back on the TL. Putting a reverse above the day's current high, SL - 0.9680.
  • #132
  • Nov 11, 2010 6:07pm Nov 11, 2010 6:07pm
Quoting mizuno
Just applied 18.4 on USDCAD on the basis of a weekly 18.4, with a stop below the month's and week's low. You can see the entry and the stop placement on the charts. Current 12AWR at 53%.

Attachment
Attachment


Also there's a divergence on H1 pointing to 1.025, though I'm not sure yet if I'll use it as a target. I'll probably base the target on AWR instead.
Attachment
Was almost stopped out, and the week even changed it's main move to down, so technically it's not even a 18.4 anymore. This is purely luck, as I placed the stop a bit further below the week's and October's low, because the spread at the time was 5 pips, and I needed to consider that. I am moving the SL to the 1.0000, which is just a little bit below the entry point. I'll keep the position open until Friday's close, or until I change my mind. I could've closed the trade today at 90% ADR, but decided not to because of no reason really.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD weekly not anymore buy SL to BE 18.4 M30 11112010.PNG Size: 105 KB
  • #133
  • Nov 11, 2010 6:09pm Nov 11, 2010 6:09pm
Quoting mizuno
Just sold USDCHF on the break of a TL. Stop above the current day's high. No reverse planned. Not exactly sure of a TP yet, but I'm putting one at 0.9615 which is based on ADR, just in case the price gets there, though I doubt that. The trade is against the MMOTW but is in the same direction as the month's main move. Let's see what happens.
Attachment

Edit: Price has jumped back on the TL. Putting a reverse above the day's current high, SL - 0.9680.
The price posted a low at 0.9670, and that means that the new stop would have been 50 pips, which I found unacceptable and thus removed the reverse order. I was stopped out shortly thereafter.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF TL break stop out reverse removed M15 11112010.PNG Size: 102 KB
  • #134
  • Nov 11, 2010 9:39pm Nov 11, 2010 9:39pm
Looks like we have a comb like formation on EURGBP, which coincides with a wedge formation. This is going to be my first attempt to trade a comb. Also since the wedge formation is pointing down, it only makes sense to trade the break to the upside, if we treat the formation the same way as we would treat a channel.
Entry at 0.847, stop below the day's low at 0.8448. There's a fresh divergence on M30 pointing to 0.8556, which I'm going to use as my target. Don't want to get greedy with my TP, especially since the trade is against the trend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP comb or not buy H1 12112010.PNG Size: 83 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP comb or not buy div target M30 12112010.PNG Size: 100 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP comb or not buy M5 12112010.PNG Size: 91 KB
  • #135
  • Nov 12, 2010 12:38am Nov 12, 2010 12:38am
that eurgbp downwards wedge will probably have macd divergence too. Not sure if you use divergence as confirmation in you method, just an observation
  • #136
  • Nov 12, 2010 8:13am Nov 12, 2010 8:13am
Quoting bdan
that eurgbp downwards wedge will probably have macd divergence too. Not sure if you use divergence as confirmation in you method, just an observation
Yes there was a smaller divergence on M15 but the R:R wouldn't have been as sexy. Hey, you are a full member now!



I forgot to put the TP with my EURGBP order, and thus I had to close the trade manually, you can see the closing point on the chart. No worries, some profit is better than a loss. We can see that the divergence was filled nicely.
As for the USDCAD trade, I manually closed half of my position to have a peace of my mind, and I closed the rest of the position just now. So, I have no more trades open and thus I'm calling it a week. I managed to finish this week with some profit, so I've got some additional ammo to shoot, we'll see if I can get any sexy targets next week. By the way, the 11th marks the first full month of my new journal. I'm happy with my progress thus far. See you guys next week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP comb or not buy div profit taken M15 12112010.PNG Size: 95 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD profit taken 18.4 M30 12112010.PNG Size: 106 KB
  • #137
  • Nov 14, 2010 6:17pm Nov 14, 2010 6:17pm
Here's a scenario on GBP/CHF. It seems that the formation is symmetrical so far, and there's a chance that it might become a diamond. The diamond hasn't formed yet, so it's a risky trade. I have my stop outside the day's range below the high of the main diagonal, which is pointing down, so there's a good probability that we'll see the diamond, if it forms that is, breaking upwards. It appears I have no divergences against me. I'll use ADR for my TP if I don't get stopped out soon. The trade was opened as I was writing this post. No reverse planned, because if this thing is not a diamond then I have no interest of trading it any further.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHF diamond risky early buy M15 15112010.PNG Size: 87 KB
  • #138
  • Edited 7:06pm Nov 14, 2010 6:53pm | Edited 7:06pm
Order for NZD/USD. There's a divergence which can be seen on the charts, I'll use that as my TP. You can see the stop placement also. The upper border has four visual touches, and three touches if you consider the sequence. The bottom border has three visual touches, but only two if the sequence is considered. Thus I'm using this border as entering for a buy trade, I am offered a stop outside the day's range which I'm gladly taking, and there's a good chance that the upper border will be broken because of the number of touches. No reverse planned yet as it seems that I would have to use an intra-day stop. Here are a few charts:

Edit: The bottom border was broken. Putting a reverse at 0.7720, stop - 0.7762.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD triangle buy div TP M15 15112010.PNG Size: 107 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD triangle buy div traget H2 15112010.jpg Size: 138 KB
  • #139
  • Nov 16, 2010 7:38pm Nov 16, 2010 7:38pm
Unexpectedly I had to be a friend's guide for the whole Monday, and today I had to take the same friend to the airport, so I was thrown off my usual routine, and when that happens I usually start procrastinating. So to combat that:

Just sold USD/CHF with a stop outside the day's range. You can see the entry point on the charts. I have a reverse order in place, with a stop below the current day's low. TP is optimistic, targeting an unfilled divergence on H2, though if the trade goes positive I'll most likely close half of the trade before the original target. No TP for the reverse established yet.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF intraday TL break sell stop outside range M5 17112010.PNG Size: 73 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF TL break sell divergence TP H2 17112010.PNG Size: 86 KB
  • #140
  • Edited 7:57pm Nov 16, 2010 7:45pm | Edited 7:57pm
Quoting mizuno
Unexpectedly I had to be a friend's guide for the whole Monday, and today I had to take the same friend to the airport, so I was thrown off my usual routine, and when that happens I usually start procrastinating. So to combat that:

Just sold USD/CHF with a stop outside the day's range. You can see the entry point on the charts. I have a reverse order in place, with a stop below the current day's low. TP is optimistic, targeting an unfilled divergence on H2, though if the trade goes positive I'll most likely close half of the trade before the...
By the way, I missed some nice setups on USD/CHF. First, there was a wedge with a beautiful sequence, offering a buy on the third approach of the bottom border. Next, there was a bigger wedge, and as it had 4 visual touches already, buying the bounce did not even cross my mind for the fifth approach; I was waiting for a break. Though when we look at the move sequence, it is clear that by alternating up and down it only made the third touch when then fifth visual touch happened. Also it seems there's a gap in price, but as I place a price overlay from FxPro MT4, it appears that a break of the lower border did not happen. Selling the break of the upper rising border was not considered because #1- it is a rising border, and 2# - no stop outside the day's range was offered.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF wedge inside a wedge H1 16112010.PNG Size: 108 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF narrowing channel-wedge Break H1 16112010.PNG Size: 93 KB


MT4 price overlay:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF MT4 price overlay M5 16112010.png Size: 121 KB
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