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  • #324,021
  • Nov 11, 2010 6:38am Nov 11, 2010 6:38am
Quoting gatorinla
from here to 3735 has pretty good resistance .. if it tops we should make a new bottom in the 3641 area ..st. ......by ear atm
Gator from zimbabwe...is that where you are really from... looks like we will see 3675 according to my analysis.. es just dropped hard on open
  • #324,022
  • Nov 11, 2010 6:39am Nov 11, 2010 6:39am
Quoting gatorinla
from here to 3735 has pretty good resistance .. if it tops we should make a new bottom in the 3641 area ..st. ......by ear atm
Thanks , price below 3670 may do for next move to continue & previous support levels 3653, 37 or 13 may not stop as already going though supply without fear & bull already tested for the strength prematurely .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #324,023
  • Nov 11, 2010 6:39am Nov 11, 2010 6:39am
Quoting Z3iz3i
I may be wrong but i think the top may be 1.3726, there was exceptional amount of volume applied and could not make it through upside.
it may not appear like this atm but 3735.5 will be major s/r. and we wont pass it easily as time goes on. the gate will close at some point. and you have to be on the right side when it does. 3704 close or below is not a good place to be caught on the wrong side of gate closing.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #324,024
  • Nov 11, 2010 6:39am Nov 11, 2010 6:39am
Quoting Mr Hatch
be careful what you ask for. i can see many postings like "it pierced my bollinger band, but the trade sucked."-posts.
the intention is clear, but posting failed setups that work in the majority of cases will lead to high confusion.

just my 2 ct.
True. But I think the more important lesson is that losses are part of trading - the cost of doing business, shall we say. Many noobs hold bad trades because they are afraid to take a loss - a habit they need to break in order to become profitable.
  • #324,025
  • Nov 11, 2010 6:39am Nov 11, 2010 6:39am
it seems trying again....next break will take us to 1.3650 and then more down to 1.36 I think.
  • #324,026
  • Nov 11, 2010 6:40am Nov 11, 2010 6:40am
excellent T.

i didnt trade till an hour ago.. went to sleep meanwhile was exhausted...

excecuted two buys one was quickly closed i forced the entry but ended good the second one was the hour close for some up move momentum and it went well was 16 up and wanted too put sl at be it was a risky entry by my opinion, there was some problem with that some connection error so i closed it for 10 i think..


considering that i overslept the move down im happy with the outcome
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #324,027
  • Nov 11, 2010 6:41am Nov 11, 2010 6:41am
Quoting PriceVolume
True. But I think the more important lesson is that losses are part of trading - the cost of doing business, shall we say. Many noobs hold bad trades because they are afraid to take a loss - a habit they need to break in order to become profitable.
just like any business you lose sometime...consisting winning means there is something wrong somewhere ( in most cases) mistakes often corrects everything. may be posting mistakes will help someone learn at least something and we will all become pro traders
  • #324,028
  • Nov 11, 2010 6:42am Nov 11, 2010 6:42am
Nice drop.

The more this falls, the easier we can make pips on longs afterward.
  • #324,029
  • Nov 11, 2010 6:43am Nov 11, 2010 6:43am
Quoting T@rantula
Many traders and maybe the big majority of traders post only succesful trades which would made me thinking that all are millionaires.
Thats not the case. The loses are a part of this profession and we need to take it as a normal part of it.

I want to share this unsuccesful trade with fellow traders.

This trade was taken at a very late Asia session when PA was consolidating around 3770-3780.

Yesterday day was bearish and weekly showed a range, I would normally expect a pullback towards 3900.

I made an analysis which showed a very good potential...
thank you for the share .
few comments though , please bare with me .

what i see is that bank holidays or not you would lose this trade for those reasons .

first reason , head and shoulders are only head and shoulders when you see a head and two shoulders and a nickline broken . in your case i see you anticipated or hoped for a formation of a second shoulder so that if price went to 3735 area then back up it would be a real reversed H&S .

that was your first mistake and i guess biggest one . remember that two analysits can agree or disagree on a future price action prediction . but no one will enter a trade based on a pattern that has not happened yet .


the other reason is just mere technical analysis disagreement , one can agree or disagree with me in it .

I see that 3660-3650 was a good buy area based on one wolfe wave and it had target till 3820

and thats it . after 3820 there is no trade is going to happen whatsoever !.

unfortunatly my pending order was not activated and price reversed from 3670 10 pips short all the way to the target .

usually from there PA go down little bit which what happened but either way at that price any day trader should be out of the market waiting for an opportunity .

what I see is that you did not wait you just entered after price reached target and the party was over . so you had exactly 50/50 chance either up or down and hoping for the mercy of the market .

so as I told you second mistake is mere technical deference between two analysts .

but for first reason I don't think many will disagree .

thank you for sharing again . and wish you luck mate.
I SEE YOU !!
  • #324,030
  • Nov 11, 2010 6:43am Nov 11, 2010 6:43am
Quoting gatorinla
it may not appear like this atm but 3735.5 will be major s/r. and we wont pass it easily as time goes on. the gate will close at some point. and you have to be on the right side when it does. 3704 close or below is not a good place to be caught on the wrong side of gate closing.
Yup, thats why the drop. It was tested with bigger volume compared to other candles.

So, i was on the right side and with big lot
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #324,031
  • Nov 11, 2010 6:44am Nov 11, 2010 6:44am
Quoting vdinev
Hi Tarantula,
Thank you for sharing your bad experience. That's what we mainly learn from. I took a long entry today, based on a daily candle (pin bar) combined with divergence at a strong support level. However, I thought that the bank holiday will not influence badly my trade and just gave it a shot. I guess I was kinda wrong.... Still it hasn't reached my SL and it depends how the daily candle will close. Do you believe that in this case this trade went wrong so far due to the bank holiday?
Thanks in advance!
regards
Vladimir
Judging from ur chart CCI shows a classic bullish divergence. LL > HL pattern. We should have had a momentum upward.
Your observations for a long entry were correct. As I said trading on bank holidays is not reccomended.

Many good traders I know in personal showed me a different charts, with different systems but their analysis also showed a good potential for a long positions.

Bank holidays are responsible for erratic patterns today. There is no market.
  • #324,032
  • Nov 11, 2010 6:44am Nov 11, 2010 6:44am
Quoting Vladimir1987
excellent T.

i didnt trade till an hour ago.. went to sleep meanwhile was exhausted...

excecuted two buys one was quickly closed i forced the entry but ended good the second one was the hour close for some up move momentum and it went well was 16 up and wanted too put sl at be it was a risky entry by my opinion, there was some problem with that some connection error so i closed it for 10 i think..


considering that i overslept the move down im happy with the outcome
Attachment
nice trend line
  • #324,033
  • Nov 11, 2010 6:45am Nov 11, 2010 6:45am
hows everyone doing?
  • #324,034
  • Nov 11, 2010 6:45am Nov 11, 2010 6:45am
here it comes a lot off volume at least for today could be stopping... will see in half hour
  • #324,035
  • Nov 11, 2010 6:48am Nov 11, 2010 6:48am
what's going on !!???

who's doing what and why doing when ??

where is my head? i miss it so much
  • #324,036
  • Nov 11, 2010 6:48am Nov 11, 2010 6:48am
Quoting Pipwanderer
nice trend line
with a nice brush and some good paint everything is achievable
  • #324,037
  • Nov 11, 2010 6:48am Nov 11, 2010 6:48am
Quoting reg
it seems trying again....next break will take us to 1.3650 and then more down to 1.36 I think.
  • #324,038
  • Nov 11, 2010 6:49am Nov 11, 2010 6:49am
76.7 and 26.7 are floaters.. volume should be near them.. we have already been here just a day ago.. so the triggers have mostly been sprung. murry says 3671 is strong.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #324,039
  • Nov 11, 2010 6:49am Nov 11, 2010 6:49am
Quoting PriceVolume
True. But I think the more important lesson is that losses are part of trading - the cost of doing business, shall we say. Many noobs hold bad trades because they are afraid to take a loss - a habit they need to break in order to become profitable.
i was there, as many i guess. we should give it a shot, but i smell disaster. i'm a pessimistic person by nature and always happy to be surprised in a positive way.
  • #324,040
  • Nov 11, 2010 6:50am Nov 11, 2010 6:50am
It looks like 5 waves, but feels like 3 waves LOL (at least that is what I want to beliefe)

I have problems with believing, that this is a wave 3 down. Look at 1h chart. There we have divergence in price and MACD since 11.07.2010

As I write this price has reach 3674, one point shy of the low.

Look at the base channel. Price action is on the upper trend line of the base channel. Where is the acceleration, when this is a wave 3?

Or do we get multiple 1-2, 1-2's? Maybe that is the explanation, why we saw such a shallow first wave 2.

When it breaks under 3672 I will go short with stop just above it.
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