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  • #323,381
  • Nov 10, 2010 12:53pm Nov 10, 2010 12:53pm
Quoting cloggie
It is all about planning and sticking to your convictions. Not jumping on candles too soon as you saw earlier on that fakeout and generally just getting a feel for price behaviour and range plays.

No indicators, no fancy trickery just read the price and how she interacts with different levels. With time you will distinguish between the minors, the majors and the final targets.

Don't trade every pip, just trade the action between 2 ranges or a range and a major, that is usually good for 60-100 pips a trade. This mornings play I covered was...
That was a key for me earlier... "Where the big boys had their stops" - with that, I'm starting to understand the momentum you mentioned earlier. That's huge! When you identify prospective ranges for the day, how far back in time do you go? Is a range from say, a year ago, still valid today?

I feel like I'm almost there in turning the corner, and that if I am able to recognize the right ranges, I'll be a decent pipper.
What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly.
  • #323,382
  • Nov 10, 2010 12:54pm Nov 10, 2010 12:54pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
yer hot brother...

I still get it wrong at times, especially on the exotics, fibre is pretty stable and simple to trade.
  • #323,383
  • Nov 10, 2010 12:55pm Nov 10, 2010 12:55pm
Quoting Capn79
That was a key for me earlier... "Where the big boys had their stops" - with that, I'm starting to understand the momentum you mentioned earlier. That's huge! When you identify prospective ranges for the day, how far back in time do you go? Is a range from say, a year ago, still valid today?

I feel like I'm almost there in turning the corner, and that if I am able to recognize the right ranges, I'll be a decent pipper.

I have levels written down that have been in play for months on end. The price action we are seeing now reminds me of early 09 and 06 fairly similar.

Right now I am sitting on my hands to see what forms of the 3792 I wanted. Never ever start another range play once you reach your target, that's why you never see me trade with first TP, second TP etc. I only have one TP and that is the final one. Now I want to see the next range form to trade of. I have a few more plays in mind here this afternoon.
  • #323,384
  • Nov 10, 2010 12:56pm Nov 10, 2010 12:56pm
Quoting ammarmemon
I am with you all the way to 1.4000 or atleast 1.3984.

I am holding my longs since 3934 and with this quick last hour move, I think another big upmove is started.
actually big dogs also started buying since 8th november and they opened longs at 3900 level
  • #323,385
  • Nov 10, 2010 12:58pm Nov 10, 2010 12:58pm
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  • #323,386
  • Nov 10, 2010 1:00pm Nov 10, 2010 1:00pm
Quoting DrLobo
wow that's an amazing bounce on the 1hr time frame it really its been up and down and we are where we started the day. In theory no one should have lost a penny if they just held there position.

If you are bull inclined, do you think this could be a good opportunity to go long ?? We cant just bounce back down again can we ?

Following on from this inertia from the last hour does anyone think 3900 might be on the cards in next few hours or during the Asia session. Or is Asia going to sell the Euro again ???
Daily trend line bounce is what I See... charts just playing to them to the T as usual... Now where we head upwards I am a little unsure here. I look at it and it looks very indecisive to me. I'm not that good though.
  • #323,387
  • Nov 10, 2010 1:05pm Nov 10, 2010 1:05pm
Quoting cloggie
I have levels written down that have been in play for months on end. The price action we are seeing now reminds me of early 09 and 06 fairly similar.

Right now I am sitting on my hands to see what forms of the 3792 I wanted. Never ever start another range play once you reach your target, that's why you never see me trade with first TP, second TP etc. I only have one TP and that is the final one. Now I want to see the next range form to trade of. I have a few more plays in mind here this afternoon.
Ahh I see. Your 3792 TP has been filled. In looking at the chart, I would assume that 3798 would give way to 3813. (the top of an earlier range)
What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly.
  • #323,388
  • Nov 10, 2010 1:06pm Nov 10, 2010 1:06pm
USD Federal Budget Balance
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/m...etail_star.gif -140.4B
-151.5B -34.5B

#s came in better. EURO flyin. guess risk aversion is out the window for the time being.

never should have closed that long ... c'est la vie
  • #323,389
  • Nov 10, 2010 1:06pm Nov 10, 2010 1:06pm
i just came back from work and wtf?
any reason for such quick spike up?
  • #323,390
  • Nov 10, 2010 1:08pm Nov 10, 2010 1:08pm
Hey guys,

After a few big losses on a few, I'm doubting my trading style a little bit. I'm thinking about longing the Euro until 1.3888 , anyone think it's a feasible choice?
  • #323,391
  • Nov 10, 2010 1:08pm Nov 10, 2010 1:08pm
Quoting Capn79
Ahh I see. Your 3792 TP has been filled. In looking at the chart, I would assume that 3798 would give way to 3813. (the top of an earlier range)

That's one way to trade ranges, I just like the 100 pip runners and tend to see the 10-20 ones as consolidation of the bigger moves. There are times when the 15 pip ones are the only ones out there as it was last night (and I posted that taking 5-6 pokes at the lows for 20 pips each).

But 3792 was a major for me so am not expecting much to the topside until we have see a bit of profit taking and reassessing by the big boys.

There is room left to the top for the day, I just want to pick the time of the move so I can get the most out of it.

So I see 98 and 02 as test areas for the fakeouts from my target level.

On my charts I don't see a long right now.

I actually see a possible range of 3783-3792 with a wider area down towards 3768 and 3802 to the top, but that's just me, trade what you see, not what you read here.
  • #323,392
  • Nov 10, 2010 1:13pm Nov 10, 2010 1:13pm
Quoting cloggie
That's one way to trade ranges, I just like the 100 pip runners and tend to see the 10-20 ones as consolidation of the bigger moves....
There's another animal to tackle. Distinguishing between viable 100 pip moves and the 10-20 ones. You've given me some great material to study. I imagine the larger moves are an array of factors - (like have we been in consolidation for a while, what the news for the day is, and distance between the previous ranges) From a technical point of view It would seem the distance between the ranges is a larger factor.
What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly.
  • #323,393
  • Nov 10, 2010 1:13pm Nov 10, 2010 1:13pm
Target 1.3820/30, looking short there.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #323,394
  • Nov 10, 2010 1:14pm Nov 10, 2010 1:14pm
Quoting Capn79
There's another animal to tackle. Distinguishing between viable 100 pip moves and the 10-20 ones. You've given me some great material to study. I imagine the larger moves are an array of factors - (like have we been in consolidation for a while, what the news for the day is, and distance between the previous ranges) From a technical point of view It would seem the distance between the ranges is a larger factor.

On average fibre alone should give you about 4-6 trades of roughly 50-60 pips each 24 hours and 1 100 pipper, just a matter of finding them. I like to get 200 a day out of fibre.

The key is finding the bigger ones so you can scale in through each minor level and get some good profits for little to no risk. Some trades I scale in so heavily that I am still at BE around the 20-30 pip win mark, but it really pays of once she gets to 100, I look at the longer run and try to keep my scaling in to the weighted average of the bottom 1/3 or less and never add once she gets to the 50% mark of my target, also my scaling in is always at lot sizes smaller then the original to keep the average weighted down.

So I may enter at 8 lots for 100 pips, have 5 for 90, 3 for 80 and 2 for 60. I still only see it as a 100 pip trade, but there is serious money inside of it, a hundred pip trade could well become a 250 pip trade to my bottom line.
  • #323,395
  • Nov 10, 2010 1:22pm Nov 10, 2010 1:22pm
Quoting cloggie

I actually see a possible range of 3783-3792

Not bad for an old codger.

Dinner time over here, trade carefully.
  • #323,396
  • Nov 10, 2010 1:24pm Nov 10, 2010 1:24pm
Quoting cloggie
On average fibre alone should give you about 4-6 trades of roughly 50-60 pips each 24 hours and 1 100 pipper, just a matter of finding them. I like to get 200 a day out of fibre.

The key is finding the bigger ones so you can scale in through each minor level and get some good profits for little to no risk. Some trades I scale in so heavily that I am still at BE around the 20-30 pip win mark, but it really pays of once she gets to 100, I look at the longer run and try to keep my scaling in to the weighted average of the bottom 1/3 or less and...
Ahh, that makes a ton of sense regarding scaling in. What is the key to distinguishing between probable larger moves and the smaller moves? For example, we used to see larger moves off the LO, but the market has changed a little more to what you said you saw in 06 & 09. So the earlier move this afternoon... was that a factor of the PA in consolidation for a large part of the morning? (the move from 3792 down to 3671-ish) I know screen time (the 1000 hours you mention) is vital, but I'm wondering if there's an element to what establishes a probable larger move.
What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly.
  • #323,397
  • Nov 10, 2010 1:25pm Nov 10, 2010 1:25pm
hi all

love the way cam's works just enjoy the ride in between ,

cloggie still rhe star how are u ,

an h1 or h4 open above the WL4 will take us to WL3 otherwise we are going back to WL5 and we have to deal with mm in between
enjoy the ride
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  • #323,398
  • Nov 10, 2010 1:28pm Nov 10, 2010 1:28pm
Quoting Z3iz3i
Target 1.3820/30, looking short there.
Same old bullshit over and over again.

Just wait until the last significant EUR cross is supported (which is eur/jpy) and this pair fires up.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #323,399
  • Nov 10, 2010 1:28pm Nov 10, 2010 1:28pm
Thanks to Naish from www.forexfactory.com and greetings to Venezuela :-)


He proposed, that yesterdays drop from the top at 3973 was a complete wave 5, and we are no in an ABC-flat correction.

He feels, that that would eliminate the problem with a far too small wave 2 correction and will eventually solve the problem with multiple divergences in Stoch, RSI, MACD etc.

I had that count yesterday, too, but was not satisfied, because in some TF's the move from 3973 looked corrective. There were missing waves.


When we have finished wave 1 at 3735, then wave A would be up to 3825, wave B down to 3673 and now up in a C-Wave impulse to between 3763 to 3824. Impulse (5 wave) because it is a flat (3-3-5). But that can not be all. Look at duration and magnitude of the wave 1 down. Maybe this ABC-flat is then only part of a larger WXY-pattern, with this ABC the W-leg. That would fit.


See pic on my blog which can beaccessed through my signature.
  • #323,400
  • Nov 10, 2010 1:30pm Nov 10, 2010 1:30pm
Well done Cloggie.

Your # of posts per minute is almost as equal as the number of pips you have made today. Have you consider opening a chat room? for this kind of hyperactive trading, people who want to learn your trading method I think they will be better off in paltalk, skype or similar.

Your last hundred posts are almost better than shakespearean monologue of success. Keep doing like this and you will be retiring very soon but I guess you will need to increase size or why don't you move to futures? 500 ticks today 5 contracts good $30.000 that is not bad under any ranking.

Just my 2 cent. I hope you stay in a winning strike for long time.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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