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  • #321,521
  • Nov 8, 2010 7:06pm Nov 8, 2010 7:06pm
http://news.ph.msn.com/business/arti...mentid=4446311

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gol...400-2010-11-08

Long term, the dollar is clearly viable
Not all sins are created equal
  • #321,522
  • Nov 8, 2010 7:07pm Nov 8, 2010 7:07pm
Quoting malcolmb14
weekly charts

I hope all those that were bullish on Sunday are not holding onto this with dd

3720 then if that breaks 3300
so no hope for my long malcolme target is met it s going to be long from now for at least 200 pips or is it going down in a straight line
  • #321,523
  • Nov 8, 2010 7:07pm Nov 8, 2010 7:07pm
Quoting mfoste1
its pretty obvious a top has been put in.......extremely unlikely that 4200 will be visited again......


however, in top patterns on eu like these there are usually short squeeze shortly after the initial shock decline to shakeout all the weak shorts(ie. short on low volumes{early asian shorts before tokyo}).
  • #321,524
  • Nov 8, 2010 7:08pm Nov 8, 2010 7:08pm
I find the Hong Kong/Shanghai/Singapore open one hour after the Tokyo open to be pretty compelling.
  • #321,525
  • Nov 8, 2010 7:10pm Nov 8, 2010 7:10pm
Quoting gatorinla
here.. i been in since Friday. 4h...
thanks! zup and murray math

bullish bat pattern. target normally 1.0200 ?
  • #321,526
  • Nov 8, 2010 7:10pm Nov 8, 2010 7:10pm
Quoting peterg
But is it legible to you?

Can you see how price reacts with the diagonals and horizontals.

Or does it appear a mess?
It appears a mess to my eyes, but my eyes don't matter for your charts. I've never seen a chart look like before though!

If it's your edge, by all means keep at it!
  • #321,527
  • Nov 8, 2010 7:15pm Nov 8, 2010 7:15pm
Quoting mfoste1
its pretty obvious a top has been put in.......extremely unlikely that 4200 will be visited again......
Not so sure about that, We are still in a range... Tonight during London will tell though.

I wont be convinced of anything until we at least get lower than 3700.
  • #321,528
  • Nov 8, 2010 7:20pm Nov 8, 2010 7:20pm
Quoting peterg
Never thought of it from the "save the Euro perspective."

I just think of it selfishly, as forced asset appreciation and inflation...a back door taxation, unfortunately mostly for the poor, whom will get fuggin hammered.
you need 1 of either 3 things for a strong currency. commodities, strong banking and/or manufacturing. i think most agree japan and Europe are on the short side of commodities. Both have few.
Ok then there is banking. Use your judgment on this. They banks hold the debt of the countries who guarantee the banks. So its in the best interest of the countries to say the banks are fine. It like a liars loan in the U.S. We had stress test and they said all is fine. to do this they made sure banks had liquidity. to do this currency was pulled from the system and added to the banks. but it also pulls liquidity out the system making loans ect. harder to get.
now you got manufacturing left. many say all is well..hey if they honestly believe Europe can keep up with Asian wages. god bless them

keep in mind im a longer term trader mostly.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #321,529
  • Nov 8, 2010 7:20pm Nov 8, 2010 7:20pm
Quoting longshot_nl
I like this one myself.
that looks like crystal ball trading. why should the price move in that way? u can react on chart pattern, but u can not predict them.
  • #321,530
  • Nov 8, 2010 7:21pm Nov 8, 2010 7:21pm
Quoting Venice
Not so sure about that, We are still in a range... Tonight during London will tell though.

I wont be convinced of anything until we at least get lower than 3700.

the spike above 4153 broke the range.......it was a false breakout. Thats how these W tops in eu work, then it goes hard the other way(initial shock decline), then a short squeeze, then hard decline.....
  • #321,531
  • Nov 8, 2010 7:25pm Nov 8, 2010 7:25pm
Quoting baggermatsch
thanks! zup and murray math

bullish bat pattern. target normally 1.0200 ?
first target is the crotch.... others are higher
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #321,532
  • Nov 8, 2010 7:31pm Nov 8, 2010 7:31pm
Quoting Beljevina
Double Amen. People lack discipline to post only fx relevant content, which is actually in the FF usage guidelines. Apparently many posters here don't know about facebook or other social aspects of that thing called the internet, so they pollute these fx forums with their irrelevant crap, along with uselessness like youtube videos. Throw in the gross lack of information and pontification by those who wouldn't know a gap, VSA upthurst, or proper candle pattern if it bludgeoned them in the head, and you have a normal cross section of the euro or cable...
I agree with what you're saying completely, but we must keep in mind that membership to ff is open, and so it is reasonable to expect a broad cross section of members here from accomplished traders, right down to idiots who are here for a laugh. The hard part for newbie is knowing who is talking sense and who is full of it. The hard part (I guess) for the accomplished trader is who is listening and learning, and who is full of it. For the intermediate trader the hard part is posting what *they* believe is relevent and to have it critiqued by the accomplished traders without attitude or belittlement.

I think I fit into the intermediate category, but I post very little here now. I like to discuss my charts and theories with newbies and accomplished traders alike, but I do not like to be spoken to like some gutter punk from the slum end of town. Fortunately that hasn't happened to me much. I try to give respect and I expect to receive it back.

This issue about the 'gap' is a case in point. Yes, we all know that fx is a 24/7 operation, but large retail brokers DO show weekend gaps, and most of the time they DO close pretty smartly. Personally I don't trade gaps, but many do, and do successfully. There is no need to come in here like a bull in a china shop and raise the heckles of the people. To explain the situation with common courtesy and then let sleeping dogs lie, is better than the display we have seen recently. This kind of attitude perpetuates further bad attitudes and those that wish to enter a flame fight will do so.....to the detriment of those who genuinely wish to learn. Those that do wish to learn, will now be hesitant to post because they don't wish to be flamed or scoffed at by the arrogant few.

This is one reason why I don't post here much now.....if my opinion/theory/charts etc are just plain wrong, I would very much like to know why so that I can learn and not make the same mistake again.

Surley the whole point of this place is to learn and communicate with other who have similar goals and interests?

Of course we have to expect extremes from both ends of the spectrum, such is life......but when accomplished traders leave here, it is that much harder for newbies to learn. Consequently the ratio of newbies to accomplished traders gets all out of balance.

I don't know the answer to the problem, but I know one thing for certain: to not treat each other with respect and understanding is unacceptable to me. The best bunch of traders here, were once newbies themselves.....let's not forget that.

More courtesy and understanding......less arrogance and attitude from all sides might go a long way to helping newbies/intermediate traders, and also (I imagine) it would be more satisfying to the accomplished traders knowing that they have made a difference in someones trading life.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #321,533
  • Nov 8, 2010 7:36pm Nov 8, 2010 7:36pm
Quoting nawafasad1
so no hope for my long malcolme target is met it s going to be long from now for at least 200 pips or is it going down in a straight line
I do not get it ... there was considerable buyign at 3900 today HOWEVER the up move to 3950 the buyer evaporated

now we see a psike down in asia ( before tokyo stock market opens) and I think we see 3720 before we see your up move.

That weekly is looking pretty toppish and there is an odd rounded shape on tf and es

I do not think it is dollar strength pulling eu down . more like euro weakness.

I posted a chart in the bear divergence cds spreads and eu... looks like eu is now catching up with the cds spreads now.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #321,534
  • Nov 8, 2010 7:37pm Nov 8, 2010 7:37pm
on the daily.. you have a tl.. its been breached once a few weeks back. it usually takes at least 3 touches to break one. this is #4 today if we get touched. tl that started sept 3 low. atm at about 3837/38
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #321,535
  • Nov 8, 2010 7:39pm Nov 8, 2010 7:39pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I do not get it ... there was considerable buyign at 3900 today HOWEVER the up move to 3950 the buyer evaporated

now we see a psike down in asia ( before tokyo stock market opens) and I think we see 3720 before we see your up move.

That weekly is looking pretty toppish and there is an odd rounded shape on tf and es

I do not think it is dollar strength pulling eu down . more like euro weakness.

I posted a chart in the bear divergence cds spreads and eu... looks like eu is now catching up with the cds spreads now.
Bro i hear ya......there was a shit ton of buying at the monthly pivot....then its like they just covered and went away. It seems like buyers are content with 50 pips. Like you said its some serious euro weakness, look at eurchf euraud. Its almost like traders are trying to liquidate all euro positions. Default fears increasing? i think so. Id like to see a bounce to 4000 but i dont know if there are any buyers to take it there.....
  • #321,536
  • Nov 8, 2010 7:44pm Nov 8, 2010 7:44pm
Quoting mfoste1
Bro i hear ya......there was a shit ton of buying at the monthly pivot....then its like they just covered and went away. It seems like buyers are content with 50 pips. Like you said its some serious euro weakness, look at eurchf euraud. Its almost like traders are trying to liquidate all euro positions. Default fears increasing? i think so. Id like to see a bounce to 4000 but i dont know if there are any buyers to take it there.....
or something else ...lol... shhhh
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #321,537
  • Nov 8, 2010 7:45pm Nov 8, 2010 7:45pm
Quoting realjumper
Surley the whole point of this place is to learn and communicate with other who have similar goals and interests? ... I don't know the answer to the problem, but I know one thing for certain: to not treat each other with respect and understanding is unacceptable to me. The best bunch of traders here, were once newbies themselves.....let's not forget that.

More courtesy and understanding......less arrogance and attitude from all sides might go a long way to helping newbies/intermediate traders, and also (I imagine) it would be more satisfying...
We're clearly on the same page, but the hope is that others develop a healthy mindset & self-awareness too. The fx gap discussion is a case in point; I tried ti sum it up here because I took the few minutes one day to learn the correct facts - those that care to further research, can find the proper info via google, before they go off preaching & proclaiming the virtues of their lottery based gap trading methodology.

Self-awareness as a trader and person is key to success - I never plan to stop learning, for as long as I am breathing. And, I am humbled by knowing that there is always someone better at something than me, but that I too can be better at some things. Any person who states they know everything is almost as dangerous as one who thinks they know everything.
  • #321,538
  • Nov 8, 2010 7:46pm Nov 8, 2010 7:46pm
Quoting malcolmb14
or something else ...lol... shhhh
ok we had this odd down move in pre asia.... with buyers off 3900 all day

I think this is a shake out and maybe a sign of strength if we can get back above 3900
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #321,539
  • Nov 8, 2010 7:46pm Nov 8, 2010 7:46pm
Quoting malcolmb14
or something else ...lol... shhhh

hehehehe
  • #321,540
  • Nov 8, 2010 7:48pm Nov 8, 2010 7:48pm
Quoting mfoste1
Bro i hear ya......there was a shit ton of buying at the monthly pivot....then its like they just covered and went away. It seems like buyers are content with 50 pips. Like you said its some serious euro weakness, look at eurchf euraud. Its almost like traders are trying to liquidate all euro positions. Default fears increasing? i think so. Id like to see a bounce to 4000 but i dont know if there are any buyers to take it there.....
euro should never be valued over the aud.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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