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Steve Hopwood's T101 basket trading auto-trader

  • #21
  • Nov 6, 2010 6:01pm Nov 6, 2010 6:01pm
Quoting SteveHopwood
Can you stick with this, please, and let me know what conclusion you come to? I can easily add contra-basket trades to the robot if t101 continues to send eu and gc in the opposite direction to the rest of the basket.
I am on it, don't worry. This basket trading system seems to be the way to work on. It is clean and very promising and with your ability to create EAs, I am confident that we can come up with something that will make some profit.

This weekend I aim to read all Trader101's 200 page thread and the spin-off thread for Indicators Development for Trader101's system, also 200+ pages =>

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=112522


For EU and CJ pairs, perhaps we can do some hedging if they are moving against our main trade direction, after some lost pips from those specific pairs.

We know that not all of the 14 pairs are going to be in profit, as Trader101 claims that, most of the time only 8 pairs are in positive and the remaining 6 pairs are in negative. We can come up with a method to pinpoint the losing pairs and make them join the ranks of winning ones. Even one pair can have a significant impact on the profit/loss ratio.

And even if some of the pairs are resisting and than we can hedge them OR apply some sort of recovery as in NB method to those pairs, maybe only to the ones doing worst. Since I still did not understand how Trader101 chose those pairs and the correlation involved in this, I cannot comment on which pairs we should be focusing on or should we focusing at all. That I leave for more experienced traders.

You know better than me , I am just throwing ideas here, but I guess we can all agree that there is some sort of optimization we can squeeze in .


Once I learn something new that might add here, I will keep posting.
  • #22
  • Nov 6, 2010 6:05pm Nov 6, 2010 6:05pm
Quoting E2u
EURUSD stands for 28% of the Forex market volume. When it’s a real trend the USDCHF always go opposite direction to EURUSD. So there is something to think about. There must be more currency pairs that behaves like them two.
If you guys know about them and are sure about them, then I can code them.

Saved within the source code of BWBB but not implemented yet: EU/UC.

What I am assuming is this: If the overall basket is long, the UC will be short and vice versa. Am I on the right track?

  • #23
  • Nov 6, 2010 6:07pm Nov 6, 2010 6:07pm
Quoting SteveHopwood
If you guys know about them and are sure about them, then I can code them.

Saved within the source code of BWBB but not implemented yet: EU/UC.

What I am assuming is this: If the overall basket is long, the UC will be short and vice versa. Am I on the right track?

Si Si
  • #24
  • Nov 6, 2010 6:08pm Nov 6, 2010 6:08pm
Quoting lionamra
Once I learn something new that might add here, I will keep posting.
Fantastic. This is the best that all of us can hope to do.

  • #25
  • Nov 6, 2010 6:10pm Nov 6, 2010 6:10pm
Quoting E2u
Si Si
Ok. I will code this in time for market opening tomorrow.

  • #26
  • Nov 6, 2010 6:17pm Nov 6, 2010 6:17pm
Quoting E2u
EURUSD stands for 28% of the Forex market volume. When it’s a real trend the USDCHF always go opposite direction to EURUSD. So there is something to think about. There must be more currency pairs that behaves like them two.
I agree with you E2u and raise you with this

Quoting Trader101
never trade the EU and UC in the same direction or GU and UJ. Yes those mentors i had were right, however reflecting in on our indicator as an example, if initially the EU is buy at the top spot and UC sell at lowest spot, as trading goes one the EU will move down and UC will move up at a certain point somewhere in the middle they will met and using our guide. Buy going down is SELL and sell going up is SELL then if you shorted both the EU and UC they will be both positive trades upon reaching the middle...isnt it.

As far as I understand from Trader101, there might be right time for trading EU and UC (of course when E2c's comment is not in action). I believe, we need a flexible EA that can identify this sort of movement (I have no idea if it is doable at all and my suggestion might be overkill as well), rather than relying on a general rule like trading EU and UC in the opposite directions.
  • #27
  • Nov 6, 2010 6:28pm Nov 6, 2010 6:28pm
Quoting lionamra
I agree with you E2u and raise you with this




As far as I understand from Trader101, there might be right time for trading EU and UC (of course when E2c's comment is not in action). I believe, we need a flexible EA that can identify this sort of movement (I have no idea if it is doable at all and my suggestion might be overkill as well), rather than relying on a general rule like trading EU and UC in the opposite directions.
Thank You!!! 2v!!!
  • #28
  • Nov 6, 2010 6:30pm Nov 6, 2010 6:30pm
its only my opinion that mainy an ea for 101s system should take into account the pips from the close of the forex for the week ,

also the current average price of the present currency you are trading ok one can trade the core basket the amigos the groups of ejs ect the slot position of the core baskets

but it seems to me most 101 traders are not taking into account the basics of say 101s bts excell trader


now in my opinion its not hard to make money manualy trading 101s system


its made complicated by ignoring the basics in my opinion


although im not a fan of eas for trading except in a semi auto mode

its sad to see so much effort by brilliant coders forgetting sometimes the

simple things of julius basic system

my opinion only the excell is still a wonderful tool that julius introduced to basket trading

BUT IF THIS HELPS STEVE PROGRAM A BETTER EA IT WAS WORTHWHILE ME EXPRESSING MY OPINION

from BRIAN
  • #29
  • Nov 6, 2010 6:30pm Nov 6, 2010 6:30pm
Quoting SteveHopwood
If you guys know about them and are sure about them, then I can code them.

Saved within the source code of BWBB but not implemented yet: EU/UC.

What I am assuming is this: If the overall basket is long, the UC will be short and vice versa. Am I on the right track?
Quoting Trader101
if all long.... EU is short and ChfJpy is short
if all short .. EU is long and ChfJpy is long
I believe it is not as simple as opening UC against the overall basket. UC has to stay with the overall basket and we need to leave EU and CJ out of it.
EDIT: Because the main idea in selecting 14 pairs is that they dynamically hedge each other. Leaving UC out of that 14 might result in unexpected results since I don't know the main logic behind the selection of pairs. Just my two cents.

This is what I understood from Trader101's post. I might be wrong though.


BUT, my suggestion is to open 14 pairs the same direction, LONG or SHORT and if EU and CJ are going against us, than we can hedge them till the hit our T/P.

Your call Steve.
  • #30
  • Nov 6, 2010 6:53pm Nov 6, 2010 6:53pm
eg if the average price of the 14 currencys are belows the close on saturday depending on the time eg sunday usa

the curent 14 currency are short in respect to the close lets call this zeRO

have you noticed in a week how many times the average returns to zero


the price now to the close of the forex


did you know the famous hedge formula taught in many courses of zero


ok but observe durning a week how many tims the average price of 14 currencys return to the forex close price

INCEDENTLY THE ZERO IS BASED ON THE CORELATION OF THE EURUSD THE GBPUSD AND THE EURGBP

ok now we have an intersting premise of shi as to top bottom and center

but the reference shi fails in is the calculation of center

also 101 in his famous bts spread sheet was a strong reference to the forex close price

for a very good reason
i think

second did you notice the average price in there and the reason for it


so in my opinion one should consider this


DID YOU TRY 2 SHIS OVERLAP SREVE TO FIND THE REAL ZERO TURN

imagine this onefact pips awy from close of the forex on the weekend with now price

just a few things to consider


from Brian
  • #31
  • Nov 6, 2010 7:00pm Nov 6, 2010 7:00pm
Here is a picture of a perfect Basket in profit. The picture is not more than 2 weeks old. I have USDCHF in opposite direction in the basket. Here it looks like EURCHF GBPCHF also shall be opposite.
Attached Image
  • #32
  • Nov 6, 2010 7:02pm Nov 6, 2010 7:02pm
Quoting lionamra
I believe it is not as simple as opening UC against the overall basket. UC has to stay with the overall basket and we need to leave EU and CJ out of it.
EDIT: Because the main idea in selecting 14 pairs is that they dynamically hedge each other. Leaving UC out of that 14 might result in unexpected results since I don't know the main logic behind the selection of pairs. Just my two cents.

This is what I understood from Trader101's post. I might be wrong though.


BUT, my suggestion is to open 14 pairs the same direction, LONG or SHORT and if EU...
I can spend time coding, or I can spend time reading threads. Obviously I cannot do both. So, I depend on people like you to do some of the 'legwork'.

Do the reading and I will code your conclusions; they will be based on what you read in t101's thread and I will trust them.

A bit of me wishes I had re-read t101's thread before I posted this one, but that was never going to happeh given what I normally get up to. Your efforts could make a huge difference to all of us here.

Cheers

  • #33
  • Nov 8, 2010 5:38am Nov 8, 2010 5:38am
I have added hedging - details in post 1.

I have automated pair suffix detection. I am developing the code on a demo that does not use them, so please report any bugs in this.

  • #34
  • Edited 11:41am Nov 8, 2010 10:11am | Edited 11:41am
Now I spend all my time to find a Hedge configuration. Maybe somebody can tell how to calculate it.
Ex.
If we put hedge on a order that has went 10 pips wrong direction.
0123456789 pips
On pips no: 11 the hedge function triggered.

If we have HedgeLotsMiltiplier=5
Then when the original order 0,01 is 11 pips in wrong direction, Hedge put 0,05
When original is 12 pips x 0,01 wrong direction, Hedge is 1 pips x 0,05 right direction
When original is 13 pips x 0,01 wrong direction, Hedge is 2 pips x 0,05 right direction
And so on…
That mean that Hedge will catch the wrong runner at xx amount of pips for make a BE.
Now the problem with the calculation comes..
If the market turns before the BE and the original order goes right direction, then the Hedge order will go wrong direction with 0,05. After a couple of pips +(spread) the Hedge start to go minus.
If the Hedge order is not closed before +-0 we need to Hedge the Hedge with at least 150%. The percent is not easy to calculate and it should bee a formula for that.
If you start Hedge after 50 pips minus you need more than HedgeLotsMiltiplier=5 or you never catch the runner. Especially when our goal is to get 10 pips profit per currency pair. If we can get 20 pips out of one currency pair, what shall the HedgeLotsMiltiplier bee for break even.
And what shall the HedgeLotsMiltiplier bee for Hedge the Hedge to break even.
We need a formula +computer +EA with autocalc for that.
If we found that formula Steve don't need to spend more time making EAs, then we can flip a coin and Hedge us out.
  • #35
  • Nov 9, 2010 10:37am Nov 9, 2010 10:37am
Great job on this Steve. opened it to test last night.

today its done 3 basket trades +574 pips.. wow wow wow

sign of good things id say
The Kamakazi
  • #36
  • Nov 9, 2010 7:03pm Nov 9, 2010 7:03pm
Quoting lionamra
I was just going through Trader101's original thread and I realized that he is suggesting an optimization for 14 buy or 14 sell method.

Trader101 says that if we are going for LONG, than
12 LONG + EURUSD short + CHFJPY short

and

if we are going for SHORT, than
12 SHORT + EURUSD LONG + CHFJPY LONG

Trader101's post =>
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=224
(by IBFX, he means the pairs that we are using right now, you can check it in here => http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...3&postcount=51...
I would have thought:

Majority LONG, then USDCHF Short + USDJPY Short
Majority SHORT, then USDCHF Long + USDJPY Long

Reasoning? (Taken from: http://www.forexmarkethours.com/correlation/06/)

Correlated pairs

EUR/USD and GBP/USD
EUR/USD and NZD/USD
USD/CHF and USD/JPY <=
AUD/USD and GBP/USD
AUD/USD and EUR/USD

Inversely moving pairs are:

EUR/USD and USD/CHF <=
GBP/USD and USD/JPY <=
GBP/USD and USD/CHF <=
AUD/USD and USD/CAD
AUD/USD and USD/JPY <=
  • #37
  • Nov 10, 2010 8:00am Nov 10, 2010 8:00am
I just want to share with you the equity curve of the so called Indicator Account of T101 after opening it 6 days ago. It's now 15% in profit!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: t101.JPG Size: 327 KB
  • #38
  • Nov 10, 2010 11:29am Nov 10, 2010 11:29am
Quoting luiboy
I just want to share with you the equity curve of the so called Indicator Account of T101 after opening it 6 days ago. It's now 15% in profit!

Luiboy

The one ive run over the last 2 day has not had a single loser. In fact i want it to loose so i can see what its worse drawdown is like.

What has losing baskets been like on yours??
The Kamakazi
  • #39
  • Nov 10, 2010 12:37pm Nov 10, 2010 12:37pm
Quoting luiboy
I just want to share with you the equity curve of the so called Indicator Account of T101 after opening it 6 days ago. It's now 15% in profit!
Hi luiboy,

Your screenshot shows that you are using Orest's original EA, not BWBB. I assume that there is no trade involved, right, only the original pairs since the beginning of the week.

So, %15 profit is not coming from BWBB.


Quoting Bl888
Great job on this Steve. opened it to test last night. today its done 3 basket trades +574 pips.
Hi Bl888, which settings are you using? Default ones or did you change anything, because I am getting some losses during the last few days with only 1 profit closed at 140 pips.
  • #40
  • Nov 10, 2010 4:13pm Nov 10, 2010 4:13pm
Quoting Bl888
Luiboy

The one ive run over the last 2 day has not had a single loser. In fact i want it to loose so i can see what its worse drawdown is like.

What has losing baskets been like on yours??
The worst so far is only 4%. I'm also wondering what would be the worst DD for a setup like this. I'm going to setup another IA. And I will close and reopen the trades everytime it reaches 5% profit.
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