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  • #320,461
  • Nov 6, 2010 3:24pm Nov 6, 2010 3:24pm
http://markets.ft.com/markets/bonds.asp

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/euro_cds_060420103

The goldnews article is from early summer - but nothing has changed that much...EXCEPT that E/U is 1,500 pips higher now. So, yeah, there's a credit shitstorm brewing in the eurozone - and it has a better chance of getting deeper with the euro that much stronger.

As usual, its a broked!ck dogfight between these two. El Arian calling a E/U top at 1.42 last week gives one pause. Anybody sitting on $1Trillion in assets probably has some inside information, dontcha think?

Good time to be a scalper.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #320,462
  • Nov 6, 2010 3:37pm Nov 6, 2010 3:37pm
Quoting Honored
All i can say is that 1.4280 is definitely not the top, we are 250 pips away from it right now, so we are definitely going up on monday. Malcolm and his Sellers are absorbed by now and EU will keep going up and up. I even told Wormie at 1.40 that we going up and he was too confident picking up the USDX bottom. See yall at 1.45 in the last week of November. That is my TOP
lol ... Good luck ,...

IF and only if 4160 ( failed breakout level now) is taken out will I get bullish again. I am expecting a retarcement to that level as there seemed considerable buying on the NFP dip on Friday . If 1,3980 taken out though that opens 1,3720 for this week as a low.

pros do NOT break something out by 120 and then drop it 250 pip the following day if they want higher prices. This is NOT how the markets work now matter what your charts say

NOW if we see a breakout again of 4160 on HIGH volume and then a LOW volume down move to test and stop on 4160 then and only then will this give us the green light for your 4500

other than that the attempted breakout of a 3 week resistance level was CRUSHED by me and my sellers ..lol
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #320,463
  • Nov 6, 2010 3:40pm Nov 6, 2010 3:40pm
I will post my dxd chart later... show you what i am seeing

I think El may be right ...

However tghe feds pomo and liquidity in the us stock market may be sell london buy us session lol

new pomo calender coming out soon ...

Quoting The Fool
http://markets.ft.com/markets/bonds.asp

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/euro_cds_060420103

The goldnews article is from early summer - but nothing has changed that much...EXCEPT that E/U is 1,500 pips higher now. So, yeah, there's a credit shitstorm brewing in the eurozone - and it has a better chance of getting deeper with the euro that much stronger.

As usual, its a broked!ck dogfight between these two. El Arian calling a E/U top at 1.42 last week gives one pause. Anybody sitting on $1Trillion in assets probably has...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #320,464
  • Nov 6, 2010 3:49pm Nov 6, 2010 3:49pm
Quoting malcolmb14
lol ... Good luck ,...

IF and only if 4160 ( failed breakout level now) is taken out will I get bullish again. I am expecting a retarcement to that level as there seemed considerable buying on the NFP dip on Friday . If 1,3980 taken out though that opens 1,3720 for this week as a low.

pros do NOT break something out by 120 and then drop it 250 pip the following day if they want higher prices. This is NOT how the markets work now matter what your charts say

NOW if we see a breakout again of 4160 on HIGH volume and then a LOW volume down move...
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #320,465
  • Edited 4:13pm Nov 6, 2010 3:53pm | Edited 4:13pm
Quoting Honored
I even told Wormie at 1.40 that we going up and he was too confident picking up the USDX bottom.
You were right, the dx have not bottomed out. But let's get some things straight first, when you said the pair was going up from 1.4 it was on the 24th of Oct. Here's the link to your post:
1. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=312708

I stuck to my guns and sold the EU breakout the next day with target set for 1.3733, not a pip more. Guess where that ended. Here are the links:
1. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=8852
2. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=8863
3. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=8874

Sure, it's easy to talk now that the pair is higher but I don't think there'll be many who could've handled being over 200 pips in the red going long from 1.4 from the date you called it & having to wait over a week later to make any profit from it.
I was wrong on calling the dx bottoming, but at the time when I did, I wasn't & I made a good amount shorting it to the pip. Get your facts right.
Thank You
  • #320,466
  • Nov 6, 2010 4:41pm Nov 6, 2010 4:41pm
Quoting malcolmb14
lol ... Good luck ,...
pros do NOT break something out by 120 and then drop it 250 pip the following day if they want higher prices. This is NOT how the markets work now matter what your charts say
I believe it came down 250 pips because the NFP was 2.5 times better than expected, not because the sellers pushed it. I dont know about Volume much but we will see at 1.4160. I will check here frequently and will need your help then to see the High Volume break of 1.4160 and then the low volume test at 1.4160
  • #320,467
  • Nov 6, 2010 4:45pm Nov 6, 2010 4:45pm
Quoting Honored
All i can say is that 1.4280 is definitely not the top, we are 250 pips away from it right now, so we are definitely going up on monday. Malcolm and his Sellers are absorbed by now and EU will keep going up and up. I even told Wormie at 1.40 that we going up and he was too confident picking up the USDX bottom. See yall at 1.45 in the last week of November. That is my TOP

lol ....oh i did not see the part about wormie .. did you know the euro has been in a 450 pip wide channel for a month now? .. so even cares if it goes 1,4500 or 1.3300

i will be VERY happy if euro stays in 1.3720 to 1.4100 channel for the next 50 years lol

also when pairs zigzag aroun in channels for a long period of time after a 2000 ip up move show me where they did another lareg move up

sideways channels like this indicate potential tops of markets

4160 to 4200 is key and IF we get a lower lo this week ocmpared to lats week this will be quiet bearish for euro

I am 90% a day trader anyway lol .. but love arguing the long term charts

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #320,468
  • Nov 6, 2010 4:50pm Nov 6, 2010 4:50pm
Quoting Honored
I believe it came down 250 pips because the NFP was 2.5 times better than expected, not because the sellers pushed it. I dont know about Volume much but we will see at 1.4160. I will check here frequently and will need your help then to see the High Volume break of 1.4160 and then the low volume test at 1.4160

could be .. but the day of fomc it was sold pretty well initially .. then a little push up . Day before nfp it was sold off the highs BUT did seem to have storng buying at 1,4050 , so hence i think we may see another test of 4100 area maybe 4150.

If we break 1.3930.. then I think we see 3730 to start and then takje it form there . the weekly channel lower tl is 3500 area

the cdx in euro spread have widened so something may be coming down the pipeline there .

For now any way a 4 hour hulls moving average has rolled over and my trend diamonds on tradeguider on 1 to 4 hours are red ... just waiting for 8 hour to roll over to show major trend change.

ES got bought well off 1218 on friday though.... I think they take it up to 1250 before nay reversal. I cannot figure out why gold is ripping and the us stock market is ripping thought ... lol .. used to be they went opposite directions
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #320,469
  • Nov 6, 2010 4:52pm Nov 6, 2010 4:52pm
Quoting malcolmb14
lol ... Good luck ,...

IF and only if 4160 ( failed breakout level now) is taken out will I get bullish again. I am expecting a retarcement to that level as there seemed considerable buying on the NFP dip on Friday . If 1,3980 taken out though that opens 1,3720 for this week as a low.

pros do NOT break something out by 120 and then drop it 250 pip the following day if they want higher prices. This is NOT how the markets work now matter what your charts say

NOW if we see a breakout again of 4160 on HIGH volume and then a LOW volume down...
Makes sense imo.
  • #320,470
  • Nov 6, 2010 6:12pm Nov 6, 2010 6:12pm
Quoting wormboy
You were right, the dx have not bottomed out. But let's get some things straight first, when you said the pair was going up from 1.4 it was on the 24th of Oct. Here's the link to your post:
1. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=312708

I stuck to my guns and sold the EU breakout the next day with target set for 1.3733, not a pip more. Guess where that ended. Here are the links:
1. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=8852
2. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=8863
3....
Dear Wormboy , I have two positions long at 1.4244 my TP I expect next week is 1.4340!! Will it get there? Please explain your opinion.
Thanks in advance for your brilliant analysis.
  • #320,471
  • Nov 6, 2010 7:12pm Nov 6, 2010 7:12pm
Quoting behman8850
Dear Wormboy , I have two positions long at 1.4244 my TP I expect next week is 1.4340!! Will it get there? Please explain your opinion.
Thanks in advance for your brilliant analysis.
did u enter a trade not knowing why u a tp?? and where is ur sl??
  • #320,472
  • Nov 6, 2010 8:13pm Nov 6, 2010 8:13pm
http://www.fxinsights.com/How-To-Pro...RUSD-Collapse/

Events To Watch This Week

- Greek Elections.Any sign that the current socialist government is losing its grip on power may scare debt markets, thus raising the curtain on Act II in the Greek debt tragedy.

- Q3 GDP figures for much of the EU become critical: especially Spain’s, because it is considered by many to be too big to rescue. Spain reports Thursday. Friday is the big day for EU GDP reports, with Greece, Portugal, and Italy as well as France, Germany and the overall EZ. If growth, especially for the PIIGS, misses expectations, EUR troubles could accelerate even relative to the USD.

As long as the ECB keeps firm to its exit strategy and the Fed pumps the US economy with dollars then risk assets like the EURUSD should continue to strengthen. Markets appear to be anticipating an assault on December 2009 highs around 1.4500. However failure to manage market confidence (or its intentional sabotage) could send the EURUSD plunging.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #320,473
  • Edited 8:34pm Nov 6, 2010 8:17pm | Edited 8:34pm
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101106/...ce_elections_4

"State-run and private broadcasters in Greece are not doing exit polls for this year's election, citing budget cuts."

If you can somewhere catch an early whiff of the election results you will know where the euro is headed in early Monday trading.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...elections.html

sounds like a "kick the bums out" gimme to me. Sound familiar?

Prepare to fade the euro....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #320,474
  • Nov 6, 2010 9:01pm Nov 6, 2010 9:01pm
Quoting The Fool
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101106/...ce_elections_4

"State-run and private broadcasters in Greece are not doing exit polls for this year's election, citing budget cuts."

If you can somewhere catch an early whiff of the election results you will know where the euro is headed in early Monday trading.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...elections.html

sounds like a "kick the bums out" gimme to me. Sound familiar?

Prepare to fade...
http://www.ana.gr/anaweb/user/showpl...71&service=144
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #320,475
  • Nov 6, 2010 9:12pm Nov 6, 2010 9:12pm
corrections only and noway its a reversal even if it goes lower as long as it doesnt take 1.3861 it s going up usd /chf , gu and aud/usd agree with this there s more dollar weakness before eur/usd will ve a top it might go to 1.45 before it reverses
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  • #320,476
  • Nov 6, 2010 9:58pm Nov 6, 2010 9:58pm
Quoting Honored
All i can say is that 1.4280 is definitely not the top, we are 250 pips away from it right now, so we are definitely going up on monday. Malcolm and his Sellers are absorbed by now and EU will keep going up and up. I even told Wormie at 1.40 that we going up and he was too confident picking up the USDX bottom. See yall at 1.45 in the last week of November. That is my TOP
i love top and bottom pickers... it's great comedy.
  • #320,477
  • Nov 6, 2010 10:19pm Nov 6, 2010 10:19pm
Quoting druckenmillr
i love top and bottom pickers... it's great comedy.

it always seems like a good idea until you loose 40% of ur account. Then price actually reverses and you try to buy the dip and get burnt yet once again.......t & b pickin is a vicious cycle until you stop trying to catch those. Accounts never grow until you stop trying to catch falling knives or rising rockets.
  • #320,478
  • Nov 6, 2010 10:21pm Nov 6, 2010 10:21pm
so tell me if eu going to 1.4500 why does the dx look like someone is buying the crap out of it ?

if dx gets back above 78 and does another down day on low vol eu is dead.

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Quoting The Fool
http://www.fxinsights.com/How-To-Pro...RUSD-Collapse/

Events To Watch This Week

- Greek Elections.Any sign that the current socialist government is losing its grip on power may scare debt markets, thus raising the curtain on Act II in the Greek debt tragedy.

[size=2]- Q3 GDP figures for much of the EU become critical: especially Spain’s, because it is considered by many to be too big to rescue. Spain reports Thursday. Friday is the big day...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #320,479
  • Nov 6, 2010 10:44pm Nov 6, 2010 10:44pm
Quoting nawafasad1
corrections only and noway its a reversal even if it goes lower as long as it doesnt take 1.3861 it s going up usd /chf , gu and aud/usd agree with this there s more dollar weakness before eur/usd will ve a top it might go to 1.45 before it reverses

Agreed . It's not ready just yet, but soon.


I use simplified EW analyzes combined with fibs and TL's as well as lt s/r
confluences, not to mention MACD, stoch and RSI. When all these indies and
things lines up, like now, I just have to do my homework properly .

Main theory and bias is shown pretty well on the weekly and daily charts, and
in my opinion its now possible to count the final wave patterns pretty accurate.

Based on this we have not seen the top quite yet, but the final rise AND
minor wave 5 up is starting now and should exceed current high.
Now with clear divergence showing up on the daily chart as well, it just
reaffirms this theory even more and we can start looking for a top.

This whole scenario is more interesting with the extreme bull sentiment
marked on the weekly chart.

An interesting number is 1.4355 which has strong confluence on several timeframes
weekly, daily, 4hour and hourly. And guess what, it is also 76% retrace of the
5143 - 1876 high/low. This is the exact retracement of the 6038 - 2329 high/low,
76%, which I think will be a magnet.


I am not calling a final top, but if we are in the 5th ending wave up (of wave 5 of C)
we will exceed 4281, (the minimum requirement), and if bulls have enough power left,
we will possibly see 1.4325/75, which also would be a perfect ending 5th wave.
We could even pierce through 1.44, but I doubt it.

I will start selling at 4325/50/75. Will buy on the run up and hedge.

This final wave 5 should not exceed 500 pips, otherwise the pattern is invalidated.


Weekly with historic bull sentiments

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Daily chart

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4 Hour

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  • #320,480
  • Nov 6, 2010 10:45pm Nov 6, 2010 10:45pm
Quoting wormboy
You have a very slim chance of being right. But I have not been wrong yet so far.

Called the dx bottoming end of last year.

1. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3633
2. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4044

Called the dx topping mid this year.

1. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=253623

Calling the dx bottoming out again as it reaches the same major ltl.

1. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=8668


Again,...
You did not get my point. I am NOT talking about you making 300 pips or so, every one makes pips here, may be 100, may be BE+1, but everyone makes pips on FF forums lol. What i meant was you talking about USDX bottom, which last week broke down the trendline and made a new low and we still have room down to the H4 channel and my 1.4500 here we come
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