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  • #320,401
  • Nov 5, 2010 8:18pm Nov 5, 2010 8:18pm
Quoting enterfx
There were no specific selling pressure on this down move, modest volume on a day with indecession and profit taking. I am certain it will push up over the next 2-4 days. Let's hit 44x so we can focus on the real downmove. When we hit the big bears we will know and see volume and momentum picking up. Today was not such a day.
hmmm,
i do not look at volume, i don't know exactly what can the volume show in medium/long term.
first move need to have a bit of hesitation ( that's the way i understand it) second is much stronger( maybe then the volume shows)
the idea is simple, i need to make some decision and i need to have 100% trust in it (i guess trading forex is closer to religion than to knowledge of real economy faith will give you salvation or not , if i am wrong shit happens
but right now i have to believe we will get some retrace because i haven't seen any since we started run on 13.08.2010
i know everyone is focused on printing money by FED right now and we have strong bull trend on eur but it's simply to hight for me to buy
and as many have said i believe all this fed printing is priced in
the same with reports of us stocks , the last result is released and selling begin
i do not get this 1,44 level, is it the same as parity some time ago?
  • #320,402
  • Nov 5, 2010 8:43pm Nov 5, 2010 8:43pm
  • #320,403
  • Nov 5, 2010 8:57pm Nov 5, 2010 8:57pm
Let dancin' in the moonlight

Inserted Video
  • #320,404
  • Nov 5, 2010 9:30pm Nov 5, 2010 9:30pm
Quoting thorr
hmmm,
i do not look at volume, i don't know exactly what can the volume show in medium/long term.
first move need to have a bit of hesitation ( that's the way i understand it) second is much stronger( maybe then the volume shows)
the idea is simple, i need to make some decision and i need to have 100% trust in it (i guess trading forex is closer to religion than to knowledge of real economy faith will give you salvation or not , if i am wrong shit happens
but right now i have to believe we will get some retrace because i haven't seen any since...

Look at other major tops. Tops are allways retested and a rounded process. I do believe we might have, or are very near a top for now but I'm certain we will revisit the current high or even poke above it.

Indies are signaling buy signals and with the modest volume today, I think that will happen. If we go past current high, one number I have is 4325. remains to see.

One thing that is showing very nicely up now, is divergence on larger tf's, H4 and daily, which almost allways occure in a topping process.

One thing is for sure, we can never ever be sure of anything in forex. Sudden bad euro news could also cause an immediate drop.

Take care
  • #320,405
  • Nov 5, 2010 9:45pm Nov 5, 2010 9:45pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
hi there,

first, i didn't say it's not possible. it's hard, as soon as any emotion comes into play.

that's my opinion.
Thanks Hatch for taking the time for this elaborate response to my post. Really appreciate it. This is what makes this forum wonderful.

TF
  • #320,406
  • Nov 5, 2010 9:56pm Nov 5, 2010 9:56pm
Quoting infinitus
Count and analysis updated on my blog (see signature)


Have all a nice weekend.

Kind regards, Markus
Wave 4 cannot go below wave 2 correct ? idk EW much, so in this case we shudn't go below 1.3980 .

If we go, that i will i will short. until then its all longs
  • #320,407
  • Nov 5, 2010 10:28pm Nov 5, 2010 10:28pm
Just thought I'd show my face again ...

Here's my thoughts over the coming weeks/months. As many of you know, I trade off of a 5 minute chart 95% of the time. I also usually have a longer term trade going ... off of the daily and weekly. These can run for several weeks/months.

I won't comment on the 5 minute time frame, because my entries change from day to day and session to session, but if you look at the daily and weekly, you see shorts are coming. It may be another week or even two or four, but shorts are coming and they'll be here for awhile. Look for a 1000+ pip drop occurring before the end of the first quarter.

Just thought I'd be the first to say it. I may be wrong ... I may be right ... but I'll be trading what the chart says.
  • #320,408
  • Nov 5, 2010 10:55pm Nov 5, 2010 10:55pm
Looking at this monthly and weekly, the fib is drawn from the 1.6 high of July 2008 to the 1.1885 low of June. It is a well known fact that Central Banks, aren't in the market everyday. They are big hedgers, and positions. Hedge funds generally trade on weekly time frames, as do the commercial banks. Thus the reason for the fib bring drawn on the monthly. The question would be well how do you know which time frame is more accurate to draw fibs? The answer is look at your weekly. It is a well known fact that 50% of a move is a strong psychological number. Well looking at the weekly chart, you can clearly see just how strong that number really is. in the 1st up move after the big drop we spent 9 weeks at this level before continued up movement. Currently we are starting week 6 at the same level, in another up move a year later. Not a coincidence. This is clear proof of the accuracy of the time frame for fib placement.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #320,409
  • Nov 5, 2010 11:02pm Nov 5, 2010 11:02pm
Quoting GulfCoastPip
Just thought I'd show my face again ...

Here's my thoughts over the coming weeks/months. As many of you know, I trade off of a 5 minute chart 95% of the time. I also usually have a longer term trade going ... off of the daily and weekly. These can run for several weeks/months.

I won't comment on the 5 minute time frame, because my entries change from day to day and session to session, but if you look at the daily and weekly, you see shorts are coming. It may be another week or even two or four, but shorts are coming and they'll be here for...

I fully agree, and much more, but: #320475

Near term I think we will see buying at 1.40 or 3955 and another push up before it's ready. As you say I may be wrong ... I may be right ... but I have good confidence.

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  • #320,410
  • Nov 5, 2010 11:09pm Nov 5, 2010 11:09pm
I've never met a hedge fund trader that traded on the weekly time frame. In fact I've never met a full time trader that traded ONLY on the weekly time frame. The full time traders that I know, myself included, typically trade on the lower time frames, daily/weekly is tops. Same with the hedge fund operators that I know. They're even more prone to lower time frames.

Quoting tonyo524
Looking at this monthly and weekly, the fib is drawn from the 1.6 high of July 2008 to the 1.1885 low of June. It is a well known fact that Central Banks, aren't in the market everyday. They are big hedgers, and positions. Hedge funds generally trade on weekly time frames, as do the commercial banks. Thus the reason for the fib bring drawn on the monthly. The question would be well how do you know which time frame is more accurate to draw fibs? The answer is look at your weekly. It is a well known fact that 50% of a move is a strong...
  • #320,411
  • Nov 5, 2010 11:26pm Nov 5, 2010 11:26pm
I saw your message by accident from the ff home page. You are on my igg list you know, but to answer yout post. Just because you have never met, doesn't mean it doesn't happen. You have never been to Saturn, yet it still does exist. Do me a favor and put me on your igg list. I don't know you, don't care to, and really aren't interested in anything you have to say. In regards to the fib placement chart, it speaks for itself.
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #320,412
  • Edited Nov 6, 2010 12:04am Nov 5, 2010 11:45pm | Edited Nov 6, 2010 12:04am
Morning all . happy weekend .
Just checking chart for possible next .
daily , there already sell signal confirmed but still in a rally up.

In weekly , up rally 8th candle running & ok , there come chances it go down at the 3960 to the tl it broken earlier to have the pullback finish . if break there should be the first sign of failure bull but just sign , may go secound sign price close below 3922 only with bull rally abortion. still not enough before break down 3334.

otherwise still 1 or more bull weeks to come .

Good chance if usdx able close weekly at or above 77 corresponding price eu arround 3960-22 further bull may be secured yet 1 or more weeks ranging arround not unlikely .
So good ranging at top not over yet & lastly may develop good sell off for any trend chance if or just bounce off from here ., channel seen , we make only ,pa can move any up here too same as no overbought is any overbought , can continue it for indefinite time also.
lets see .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #320,413
  • Nov 6, 2010 3:21am Nov 6, 2010 3:21am
http://img688.imageshack.us/img688/4300/94274991.gif
  • #320,414
  • Nov 6, 2010 3:51am Nov 6, 2010 3:51am
I agree with your analysis, fontu.
Imho, you may wish to go short only by breakdown of 1.3950
chart daily
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  • #320,415
  • Nov 6, 2010 4:34am Nov 6, 2010 4:34am
So, is QE2 "cooked in" already? QE1 was then & this is now, with all the various "peripheral stress" issues besetting the EU.

But I am leaning toward seeing further upside for E/U. The ECB is likely to tighten monetary policy sooner than the Fed. So, unless some serious and persistent shit hits the fan in the way of sovereign debt impacts on eurozone banks, the balance will tilt euro way & E/U will continue north.

Pullbacks are buying opportunities.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #320,416
  • Nov 6, 2010 4:36am Nov 6, 2010 4:36am
Yeah, below 1.3950 is much better for bears

but it could also go to 1.45 before big down


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: monthly.GIF Size: 31 KB
Mind over matter..I don't mind and you don't matter.
  • #320,417
  • Edited 5:38am Nov 6, 2010 5:05am | Edited 5:38am
Quoting Mr Hatch
hi there,

first, i didn't say it's not possible. it's hard, as soon as any emotion comes into play.

i just recently read a very good book about the psychological pressure of trading, and the very first question that was raised, was: "are you a farmer or a hunter?"
this market offers opportunities for both, farmers and hunters, but it clearly prefers the farmers. let me put it briefly, farmers are those guys who think a bit longer termish about everything concerning their lifes, investments, just everything. our whole society is based on the...
Great post Hatch, thanks for sharing.

I'm gonna take the liberty to add this -

If you're relatively new to this (under 2 years), then your focus should be on learning how to trade and not on the money. Once you have learned how to trade correctly (which incidentally will be ongoing throughout your career), then the money will come as a by product.

I managed to walk away yesterday +40 pips, but I pulled victory from the jaws of defeat only by doubling my usual position size once the market had moved against me, risky and stupid.

Although I finished the day in good profit I am not happy with my performance and the fact that I actually traded the NFP release to begin with. So some soul searching and a review of basic MM for me this weekend. The market will only let you off the hook so many times.

I love trading and I want to do it for the next twenty to thirty years, to that end I must protect my trading capital, trading is a business and not an extreme sport.

Trade well...

http://www.zshare.net/video/7438370851539581/
  • #320,418
  • Nov 6, 2010 6:44am Nov 6, 2010 6:44am
Sunday should be fun

Important level (1.4020 area) - Cyan Trendline from 1990

Looking for more upside but if it breaks down long @ 1.3650
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.JPG Size: 456 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.jpg Size: 90 KB
Disclaimer: Check your 1m charts
  • #320,419
  • Nov 6, 2010 6:47am Nov 6, 2010 6:47am
P.S. Is there any UNDO button in Metatrader
Disclaimer: Check your 1m charts
  • #320,420
  • Nov 6, 2010 6:54am Nov 6, 2010 6:54am
charts tab->objects for undo delete or ctrl+z
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