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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #5,341
  • Nov 4, 2010 10:21am Nov 4, 2010 10:21am
Quoting eyevoltage
No fibbing? Love it!!!

Welcome back, BC, and many thanks for your kind comments. I have to admit that I'm not into Elliott Wave or Gann numbers, but if they add more strings to your bow, then go for it, mate!!

If you're going to be around for a while, then I'll look forward to your observations, charts etc.

Take it easy, mate!
unlikely I will be around regularly until end of year. My priority is to work out a system for daily trades on indices that works more regularly.
If I can master that then I will most likely return to intraday trading, unless I get another job offer that I cant refuse.

However, its good to have had time to catch up & Ive got the buzz already. Must go. Supposed to be working. Catchya soon
  • #5,342
  • Edited 3:22am Nov 5, 2010 3:18am | Edited 3:22am
Good morning. A quick post before I am off to work. I recently learned from a commodities trader that 50% retracements were a key level following a long candle. Yesterday was such a day.

My current interest is share indices and it has been apparent that this is a magical S/R point. Now I dont yet know if its relevant in forex. Anyone any past experience?

Well, as we speak, GU 15 min & I hr have bounced off 50% retracement! It didnt react at 76 or 62% fibs.

Can anyone share past experience on this 50% retracement?

ps ignore the squiggly lines as these are for daily setups not intraday trading, and the purple dotted line is irrelevant as its the FIB tool coincidentally passing some candles - it is NOT a clever TL!!!
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  • #5,343
  • Nov 5, 2010 3:46am Nov 5, 2010 3:46am
Quoting Barry Cade
Good morning. A quick post before I am off to work. I recently learned from a commodities trader that 50% retracements were a key level following a long candle. Yesterday was such a day.

My current interest is share indices and it has been apparent that this is a magical S/R point. Now I dont yet know if its relevant in forex. Anyone any past experience?

Well, as we speak, GU 15 min & I hr have bounced off 50% retracement! It didnt react at 76 or 62% fibs.

Can anyone share past experience on this 50% retracement?

ps ignore the squiggly lines...
GU is particularly partial to the 50%, many experienced traders will testify to that...and long may this self-fulfilling phenomenon continue
  • #5,344
  • Nov 5, 2010 4:11am Nov 5, 2010 4:11am
Quoting ChowClown
GU is particularly partial to the 50%, many experienced traders will testify to that...and long may this self-fulfilling phenomenon continue
Thanks Chow
I found it interesting so have stayed doing some more analysis. Oops. Must get to work shortly. I rushed my earlier chart and put the fib in upside down. Ive now reset it accurately. Price as you will see on the 5 min has now also bounced of 38%.

Also Ive attached the 1 hour and noticed the number of times that YESTERDAYS prices reacted around FIBS that are calculated at the end of the day. Is this coincidence? I think not because I did the same on FTSE, DOW DAX and Oil which is where I discovered this. Absolutely bizarre. What makes it even more weird is that FTSE gapped up yesterday. There has to be a mathematical formula that projects these points. If only we knew, and we would become staggeringly wealthy. Maybe all market prices are pre-ordained or maybe its the answer to the universe? (apparently its 42)

Just thought I would share this as an observation and wondered if anyone else had seen this before.
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  • #5,345
  • Edited 6:32am Nov 9, 2010 6:15am | Edited 6:32am
Been a bit busy this last couple of days, and will be for the rest of the week, but I found time for this one just now.

A falling wedge led to a break-out and a rise up to the Main Pivot Line. Not quite the form, I know, seeing as it was a "long" trade BELOW the MPL, but it was definitely worth a shot. A further encouragement was that the entry was just above the xx25 psych-line.
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  • #5,346
  • Nov 9, 2010 7:54am Nov 9, 2010 7:54am
I didn't spot this one until it was too late, but it's worth posting. The Lower High pattern formed right across the MPL, and entry would have been as indicated, a few pips into the next candle (see Vantage's thread for more of this sort of method), and exit as price (the doji) started retreating from the 34ema.
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  • #5,347
  • Nov 10, 2010 5:01am Nov 10, 2010 5:01am
Morning, folks......

Just finished this one for +19 pips. The "shooting-star" type candle rejected by the MPL, plus the following LH candle prompted this trade. I waited for the break of the 34ema/TL confluence.......entry and exit as shown.
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  • #5,348
  • Nov 10, 2010 7:01am Nov 10, 2010 7:01am
A retrace to the R1 line followed by a bullish engulfing candle and an entry just above the high of the B.E.C. All for a relatively quick +13 pips.
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  • #5,349
  • Nov 10, 2010 7:57am Nov 10, 2010 7:57am
A retreat from the mid-point level followed by a rally and a break above the mpl initiated this trade. I knew it was newstime, but the set-up was good and I kept a close eye on the screen and a close finger on the mouse!! Good for another +19 pips.
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  • #5,350
  • Nov 11, 2010 5:45am Nov 11, 2010 5:45am
This EJ trade just finished. A set of tweezer-tops and a Harami candle was a good set-up for a possible reversal. If you take into account the confluence formed by the 34ema and the MPL, then it becomes irresistible. First target was the mid-point, but price just kept going and the next target became the swing low formed by the doji off the mid-point.

Before the trade, I spent a little time in remembrance of the gallant souls who died defending our country. God bless them.
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  • #5,351
  • Edited 6:00am Nov 11, 2010 5:46am | Edited 6:00am
DT/DCC just of EMA34
Waited for price to break TL+DP
was aware of RN 113.00 but entered above it
Exited around mid piv
Was good for +24p

Ooooops ..I was not aware we took the same trade
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  • #5,352
  • Nov 11, 2010 5:50am Nov 11, 2010 5:50am
Quoting david4u
DT/DCC just of EMA34
Waited for price to break TL+DP
was aware of RN 113.00 but entered above it
Exited around mid piv
Was good for +24p
Great minds think alike!!
  • #5,353
  • Nov 11, 2010 5:52am Nov 11, 2010 5:52am
Quoting eyevoltage
Great minds think alike!!
I took the same set up on eur, reason being the eur entry was where 50 level broke and ej was just above its RN still.
  • #5,354
  • Nov 11, 2010 4:51pm Nov 11, 2010 4:51pm
Hi Voltage,

when you enter the trade on M15 price, do you see higher time frame ? or only focus on the candle on M15 and enter the trade.


Thanks n Regards,


Quoting eyevoltage
This EJ trade just finished. A set of tweezer-tops and a Harami candle was a good set-up for a possible reversal. If you take into account the confluence formed by the 34ema and the MPL, then it becomes irresistible. First target was the mid-point, but price just kept going and the next target became the swing low formed by the doji off the mid-point.

Before the trade, I spent a little time in remembrance of the gallant souls who died defending our country. God bless them.
  • #5,355
  • Nov 11, 2010 9:26pm Nov 11, 2010 9:26pm
Price bellow DP+EMA34 , so looking for short.
The Hanging man + Bearish engulfing off the ema34 forming an evening star type of reversal formation ...+ broken TL confluence.
1st target was mid piv
2nd was LL
3rd RN 3600
as price went down in my direction , locked +10 and then +20
Had a TP @ 3600 but removed it as price was moving down fast (note to self - importance of having a predeterminated TP)
My greed cost me 8 pips as price bounced from the RN
Closed for +33 pips.
EV , can you see in this case an earlier entry ?
such as , on bar 3 :
a) once price cross bellow ema
b) once price cross down RN 3650
c) once price cross the Low of bar #2
d) once price cross TL
some of the options are very close , but I am talking about your principles.
Where would you have entered this trade ? bar #3 / #4 ?

Tks
David
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  • #5,356
  • Nov 12, 2010 4:08am Nov 12, 2010 4:08am
Quoting pipfirst
Hi Voltage,

when you enter the trade on M15 price, do you see higher time frame ? or only focus on the candle on M15 and enter the trade.


Thanks n Regards,
I only focus on 15m, mate. I act on what I see on the TF I'm on. Whether this is the right or wrong thing to do, it seems to work for me!

Hope this helps.
  • #5,357
  • Nov 12, 2010 4:17am Nov 12, 2010 4:17am
Quoting david4u
Price bellow DP+EMA34 , so looking for short.
The Hanging man + Bearish engulfing off the ema34 forming an evening star type of reversal formation ...+ broken TL confluence.
1st target was mid piv
2nd was LL
3rd RN 3600
as price went down in my direction , locked +10 and then +20
Had a TP @ 3600 but removed it as price was moving down fast (note to self - importance of having a predeterminated TP)
My greed cost me 8 pips as price bounced from the RN
Closed for +33 pips.
EV , can you see in this case an earlier entry ?
such as , on bar 3...
Sorry for the delay in answering (apologies to pip in previous post as well) but I overslept this morning!

As for your trade......after price moved through the TL, that's where I would have been hovering, just waiting for the right time, and the right time in this event would have been bar 4, but just under the low of bar 3.
Nice trade, mate, and 33 pips is a handsome return.
Hope this helps.
  • #5,358
  • Nov 12, 2010 4:17am Nov 12, 2010 4:17am
Quoting david4u
Price bellow DP+EMA34 , so looking for short.
The Hanging man + Bearish engulfing off the ema34 forming an evening star type of reversal formation ...+ broken TL confluence.
1st target was mid piv
2nd was LL
3rd RN 3600
as price went down in my direction , locked +10 and then +20
Had a TP @ 3600 but removed it as price was moving down fast (note to self - importance of having a predeterminated TP)
My greed cost me 8 pips as price bounced from the RN
Closed for +33 pips.
EV , can you see in this case an earlier entry ?
such as , on bar 3...
I would suggest below low of R3. Too risky otherwise as there may have been a reversal back up thro TL
  • #5,359
  • Nov 12, 2010 4:25am Nov 12, 2010 4:25am
I must say EV having looked at your charts recently Mrs V and I (she sends regards ) are getting really good warm fuzzy feelings on 15 min charts .

GU 15 min engulfing neg close through the psych level.

Nice one, cheers.
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  • #5,360
  • Nov 12, 2010 4:26am Nov 12, 2010 4:26am
Hi EV

A couple of weeks back you recommended putting pivot lines on charts. Well, I've done that, looked at your trades here, & with chart time got more comfortable. I've found them a great tool & they've helped make some great trades.

Today is a good example. Sold GU at 16046 on bounce off ema34 & S1, good looking breakout of previous hammer & rn50. I didn't feel the need to worry about MS2. Set my target for S2 but as move down was so forceful reset to rn00 (& moved stops). It actually made S3, but I'm happy with 46 pips, especially on a Friday!

Mant thanks for the excellent thread.
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