Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion

USD/JPY Discussion

#21,241
Nov 4, 2010 10:39am Nov 4, 2010 10:39am

Forexgogo
| Joined Feb 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,032 Posts

I'm still expecting UJ to come down 80.00 or below. In a long term, UJ is likely to go up (in 2-3 months), but I bet UJ coming down for now (2-3 days) due to the US economy worsening (look at unemployment data this morning). Also, I don't see anyt positive factors in JP's economic policies -- they can't lower the rate, print more money, buy bonds, and so forth. There is no remedy for JP to weaken Yen EXCEPT for interventions which JP seems to be very reluctant to do because of negative impacts upon their international relationships.

I agree, though, 80.50 is a strong support, but if it breaks, UJ goes down fast

#21,242
Nov 4, 2010 11:18am Nov 4, 2010 11:18am

Roncho
| Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Trader | 43 Posts

Quoting Forexgogo

Disliked

I'm still expecting UJ to come down 80.00 or below. In a long term, UJ is likely to go up (in 2-3 months), but I bet UJ coming down for now (2-3 days) due to the US economy worsening (look at unemployment data this morning). Also, I don't see anyt positive factors in JP's economic policies -- they can't lower the rate, print more money, buy bonds, and so forth. There is no remedy for JP to weaken Yen EXCEPT for interventions which JP seems to be very reluctant to do because of negative impacts upon their international relationships.

I agree,...

Ignored

UJ is currently on S1, this is just my opinion, but I think it will bounce off S1 the 80.80 level before continuing on its downwards journey. The reason I say this is US market opens in a few mins and London markets close in a bit. A few traders will be closing their trades and going to sleep, others will be signing in to open new trades.

#21,243
Nov 4, 2010 11:22am Nov 4, 2010 11:22am

BurgerKing
Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,924 Posts

UJ will be a clear example of TA/Chartist vs Fundamentalist tommorrow when Employment news is delivered.

Fundamentalists: UJ will move according to the data. It will be UP if Employment is Good or not that BAD. It will move Down if its BAD.

Bull TA/Chartists: It will move up - pulling his chart with fancy lines and all.
Bear TA/Chartists: it will move down - pulling his own chart with yet another set of fancy lines and curves.

Take your pick.
Personally, I hate to see USD move down. Every pip i earn in FX is becoming less and less profitable due to weakening USD....

#21,244
Nov 4, 2010 11:29am Nov 4, 2010 11:29am

Roncho
| Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Trader | 43 Posts

Quoting BurgerKing

Disliked

UJ will be a clear example of TA/Chartist vs Fundamentalist tommorrow when Employment news is delivered.

Fundamentalists: UJ will move according to the data. It will be UP if Employment is Good or not that BAD. It will move Down if its BAD.

Bull TA/Chartists: It will move up - pulling his chart with fancy lines and all.
Bear TA/Chartists: it will move down - pulling his own chart with yet another set of fancy lines and curves.

Take your pick.
Personally, I hate to see USD move down. Every pip i earn in FX is becoming less and less profitable...

Ignored

Lol. So True!!!

#21,245
Nov 4, 2010 11:42am Nov 4, 2010 11:42am

TheArcher
| Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,013 Posts

Quoting BurgerKing

Disliked

Personally, I hate to see USD move down. Every pip i earn in FX is becoming less and less profitable due to weakening USD....

Ignored

yes, i see what u mean : the Burger King is going to cost twice as much . Just hope that the salary increases just as fast to keep up with the price of Burger King ....otherwise u would have to go back to the days of being a farmer and grow tomatoes in ur backyard ... provided if u have one ...

cheeky : )

#21,246
Nov 4, 2010 11:51am Nov 4, 2010 11:51am

Forexgogo
| Joined Feb 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,032 Posts

Quoting BurgerKing

Disliked

UEvery pip i earn in FX is becoming less and less profitable due to weakening USD....

Ignored

USD needs to weaken for now in order to get strong later. The US economy needs it. Let's wait 3-6 months...

#21,247
Nov 4, 2010 11:55am Nov 4, 2010 11:55am

TheArcher
| Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,013 Posts

Quoting Forexgogo

Disliked

USD needs to weaken for now in order to get strong later. The US economy needs it.

Ignored

why do u say that ?

#21,248
Nov 4, 2010 11:55am Nov 4, 2010 11:55am

wontfindanam
| Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Trader | 37 Posts

Does noone realize that the size of the proposed BOJ QE is equal to the size of QE2? Relative to the size of the economy, it is three times the size of QE2. Prices will have to catch up to reality eventually. Hopefully I'll still be around when it does.

#21,249
Nov 4, 2010 12:07pm Nov 4, 2010 12:07pm

Forexgogo
| Joined Feb 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,032 Posts

Quoting TheArcher

Disliked

why do u say that ?

Ignored

I'm just saying a theory.

#21,250
Nov 4, 2010 12:17pm Nov 4, 2010 12:17pm

USD-Bear
Joined May 2009 | Status: User of Geppy patience pills | 7,645 Posts

Quoting Forexgogo

Disliked

I'm just saying a theory.

Ignored

A theory true if you only look at the US, Japan needs it too so where does this leave us?

Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself

#21,251
Nov 4, 2010 12:26pm Nov 4, 2010 12:26pm

Forexgogo
| Joined Feb 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,032 Posts

Quoting USD-Bear

Disliked

A theory true if you only look at the US, Japan needs it too so where does this leave us?

Ignored

IMHO, JP has done everything they could, still it is on the verge of deflation. JP's rate stays nearly 0% for a long time. JP can't print much more due to astronomical amount of national debt.

JP has done everything to stimulate their economy and nothing left to do -- still Yen is getting strong -- that is the irony.

#21,252
Nov 4, 2010 12:28pm Nov 4, 2010 12:28pm

georgem
| Joined Oct 2010 | Status: x39 | 541 Posts

Quoting Moneyright

Disliked

I don't think we're going to break below 80; too much concern about Japan's economy and risk of intervention, I can see a slight weakening of the Yen later today, (just my 2 cents worth).
I consider this just a knee jerk and over reaction to the QE2.
If it does break under 80, I don't think it will go far below it, and it's a very good buy at those levels.

Ignored

Yes, but I believe we have to visit the record low and say "hello". Just a short visit... Look at the ugly face of 79.75 and then running away scared!!! up to 82 atleast... would be cool.

I think BoJ doesn't even need to intervene, they are much more clever then the SNB... Let all TAs/Chartists push it up 200 pips once record low is reached... then let the fundamentalists interpret this upmove differently and attribute it to some Yen Weakness and add another 200 pips, and voila we are at 83.5... then everybody sees clear uptrend and sails along to 90 for the next months, shalalala

this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?

#21,253
Nov 4, 2010 1:09pm Nov 4, 2010 1:09pm

georgem
| Joined Oct 2010 | Status: x39 | 541 Posts

Wow, EURCHF is going crazily down... like 200 pips the last 6 hours...

just saying... this is flight to safety...

if yen has any appeal left as being safer then USD (I would say so)
then we are going to see new lows in USD JPY
...

Attached Image

this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?

#21,254
Nov 4, 2010 1:55pm Nov 4, 2010 1:55pm

alidoust
| Joined Apr 2009 | Status: nemodar(chart) | 29 Posts

only i know wehrn US $ is weak i can not trade like a pro.god bless US $

Be cool in trade

#21,255
Nov 4, 2010 2:06pm Nov 4, 2010 2:06pm

alidoust
| Joined Apr 2009 | Status: nemodar(chart) | 29 Posts

One of my friend told a fact.when jp is so strong it means that it is very bad for jp"s export.Jp gov needs to weak JP .
And i think that Jp need to be weaker vs Us $.

Be cool in trade

#21,256
Nov 4, 2010 2:12pm Nov 4, 2010 2:12pm

USD-Bear
Joined May 2009 | Status: User of Geppy patience pills | 7,645 Posts

Quoting alidoust

Disliked

One of my friend told a fact.when jp is so strong it means that it is very bad for jp"s export.Jp gov needs to weak JP .
And i think that Jp need to be weaker vs Us $.

Ignored

lol, your friend is right, ask your friend how we can get Yen weaker, BOJ would be very interested

Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself

#21,257
Nov 4, 2010 2:39pm Nov 4, 2010 2:39pm

alidoust
| Joined Apr 2009 | Status: nemodar(chart) | 29 Posts

Quoting USD-Bear

Disliked

lol, your friend is right, ask your friend how we can get Yen weaker, BOJ would be very interested

Ignored

I asked.he says i dont know but BOJ knows every things.

Be cool in trade

#21,258
Nov 4, 2010 2:41pm Nov 4, 2010 2:41pm

bernardo_h
| Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Knowledge is the enemy of faith.!!! | 36 Posts

Quoting USD-Bear

Disliked

lol, your friend is right, ask your friend how we can get Yen weaker, BOJ would be very interested

Ignored

well first boj should buy a lot of u$ in japanese market, lower interest rate ( already is in 0.10%..... i dunno if they can put it 0,0?? ) among others.
but it seems like they enjoy seeing how everybody is eating their nails or pulling their hair trying to figure what the F** r they gonna do....