Cancelling the order. The market changed it's mind and started forming a diamond instead. If to trade the break then a stop inside the day's range would've been required. Now let's see if it goes anywhere.
Attachment
Longer term view:
Unimportant fellow's equally unimportant journal v2.0
- #101
- Nov 1, 2010 11:02am Nov 1, 2010 11:02am
Longer term view:
- #102
- Nov 1, 2010 11:15am Nov 1, 2010 11:15am
Beautiful development with AUD/JPY. The bottom border of a possible wedge has fully formed. Does this mean that as we observed the third touch we can enter and place a stop below the low and we're good to go? I don't know the answer to that yet and I'm posting this for the record only. Let's find out together.
One thing I can tell for sure is that I won't be trading the third approach of the top border. I'd rather trade the bottom border's break after the formation is fully formed. And fully formed means having at least three touches on the bottom...
Possible new narrowing channel/wedge formation.
- #103
- Nov 2, 2010 7:03am Nov 2, 2010 7:03am
If one has giant balls of steel then you could try buying this rising TL which is inside the diamond, with a stop outside the day's range just below the low. Or perhaps this is a hint to take half of my profits. We shall find out.
Attachment
Attachment
Of course, I now regret not closing some of my position, but it's too late to do anything now. I have my stop at BE, with a reverse just above it. The stop will be inside the day's range for the reverse, at 1.398, ~30 pips.
- #104
- Nov 2, 2010 7:07am Nov 2, 2010 7:07am
With the EUR/USD trade I was trying to catch a third approach of the bottom border of a possible rising channel, but it seems that this scenario will not be happening. Still, let's wait and see if we can get anything later on. Green line indicating some symmetry.
Attachment
- #105
- Nov 3, 2010 3:01pm Nov 3, 2010 3:01pm
The line was broken by a few pips, but it could be redrawn if you connect the first and the third highs.
Attachment
Attachment
Of course, I now regret not closing some of my position, but it's too late to do anything now. I have my stop at BE, with a reverse just above it. The stop will be inside the day's range for the reverse, at 1.398, ~30 pips.
Attachment
An interesting after the fact observation: if we take the two tips of the triangles which form the diamond, and divide their intersection point values by two, we get 1.3865, the point where at the time I thought that perhaps I should close 50% of my trade. The bottom border of the triangle had three touches already, and as we know the 4th approach usually means the break, thus the market did what it was supposed to do, breaking against the main diagonal. I've established a TP point of 1.435. This is 100 pips less than the size of the main diagonal, and it is before the rising border of the left side of the diamond, so my estimation is that we should see at least that much.
Chart time!
Here you can see the low behind which I placed my stop.
And lastly, EURUSD is approaching an interesting level. Diamond and TP are marked on the chart.
- #106
- Nov 3, 2010 3:11pm Nov 3, 2010 3:11pm
Just bought the third approach of the bottom border of a possible channel. I'm putting a reverse below the SL, with a 40 pip stop above local intraday high at 0.9851.
Attachment
Stop placement:
- #107
- Nov 4, 2010 1:59am Nov 4, 2010 1:59am
- | Joined May 2010 | Status: Looking for the KO trade | 471 Posts
Here's the status with USD/CHF. As you can see the reverse was triggered. I've established a MOT by drawing another border of equal length of the channel. How I did that you can see on the chart. TP at 0.967.
Attachment
Stop placement:
Attachment
- #108
- Nov 4, 2010 10:32am Nov 4, 2010 10:32am
Looks like there's a flat surface/comb like formation. Seems it has too many touches and should be broken. I'm putting a sell order below the low of the day, so the order will be activated when the line is broken AND the main move of the day is changed. No reverse planned.
Target is based on AWR - 1.38. You can see the stop placement on the M1 chart.
Current ranges:
44ADR - 56%
26AWR - 62%
Target is based on AWR - 1.38. You can see the stop placement on the M1 chart.
Current ranges:
44ADR - 56%
26AWR - 62%
- #109
- Nov 4, 2010 11:08am Nov 4, 2010 11:08am
Beautiful work Mizuno
The trade reached it's target. Since EUR/USD and USD/CHF are in reverse correlation (but not as much nowadays since EUR/CHF started a life of it's own), I knew I could've kept the trade for a bit longer, since the MOT of the diamond on EUR/USD was suggesting quite a bit to the upside. But because the R:R wasn't as sexy as with E/U, I wanted to get out of this trade as soon as I reasonably could.
Also looks like we had a comb which got broken during the Asian session.
- #110
- Nov 4, 2010 11:21am Nov 4, 2010 11:21am
Looks like we had an intraday now broken diamond on AUD/CAD. The left side can be drawn in two ways. Main diagonal pointing down, so the diamond should continue going up. Let's see if it reaches it's MOT. For watching only. If I were to enter long I'd put my stop at 81.66, behind the low of the second minor diagonal.
- #111
- Nov 4, 2010 11:44am Nov 4, 2010 11:44am
EUR/CHF broke a confluence of two trendlines today. As we can see the longer pink TL is not usual with a break between the 1st and 2nd touches. An intraday stop above a local high at 1.3745 or 1.3751 could've been used. There's a divergence on H4, pointing to 1.3542. Let's see if the price reaches it.
I did not enter this trade, posting for observational purposes only.
Divergence:
Possible stop placement:
I did not enter this trade, posting for observational purposes only.
Divergence:
Possible stop placement:
- #112
- Edited 12:59pm Nov 4, 2010 12:53pm | Edited 12:59pm
Looks like there's a flat surface/comb like formation. Seems it has too many touches and should be broken. I'm putting a sell order below the low of the day, so the order will be activated when the line is broken AND the main move of the day is changed. No reverse planned.
Target is based on AWR - 1.38. You can see the stop placement on the M1 chart.
Current ranges:
44ADR - 56%
26AWR - 62%
Attachment
Attachment
Noticed a setup on NZD/JPY. The price is heavily trending upwards, but there's a TL with three touches plus a fresh divergence, pointing to 63.25, which I'm going to use as my take profit level. It looks like at least some size retrace should happen soon. Entry at 63.98, stop - 64.20. Not planning a reverse due to the divergence.
Edit: By the way, forgot to mention. The current 44ADR is at 139%, and 26AWR at 108%. Both are exhausted.
- #113
- Nov 4, 2010 1:27pm Nov 4, 2010 1:27pm
Sell order established. I'm not moving my stop yet and letting the trade run as it is.
Noticed a setup on NZD/JPY. The price is heavily trending upwards, but there's a TL with three touches plus a fresh divergence, pointing to 63.25, which I'm going to use as my take profit level. It looks like at least some size retrace should happen soon. Entry at 63.98, stop - 64.20. Not planning a reverse due to the divergence.
Edit: By the way, forgot to mention. The current 44ADR is at 139%, and 26AWR at 108%. Both are exhausted.
Attachment ...
On a brighter note, I'm moving my EUR/USD stop to break even! I always try to give the trades a chance first and not to move my stop prematurely.
- #114
- Nov 4, 2010 1:45pm Nov 4, 2010 1:45pm
The price broke the TL slightly and jumped back on. Also I took a look how NZD was doing against other pairs, and it seems to be doing well against EUR and USD. The 1:3 risk:reward is not that sexy either. Thus I changed my mind and I don't like the idea anymore. I'm cancelling the order. Let's see where it goes without me.
Attachment
Or it now could be looked at like this, though there are slight gaps between the middle two approaches.
Or even like this, though there's still a little bit of a gap in the middle
Will update if I get any trading ideas which would involve the TL.
- #116
- Edited 4:57pm Nov 4, 2010 4:44pm | Edited 4:57pm
Sell order established. I'm not moving my stop yet and letting the trade run as it is.
Next, there seems to be forming a diamond like formation on USD/JPY. It looks far for complete yet, and is a long shot. The main diagonal of the possible diamond so far is pointing down, so there's high probability that it will break upwards, provided that the diamond gets formed of course. This will also be a confluence of monthly 18.4. The stop for the order is at 80.20, behind the month's low. Not going to reverse. 12AMR at 29%.
- #117
- Nov 5, 2010 8:41am Nov 5, 2010 8:41am
Moving my stop just behind the border. It is not exactly break-even but it's close enough so I could not worry about it. Not that I think about it, 1.38 might be a bit too optimistic. The day's range extended to 110% today, so perhaps I already had an optimal exit point. Either way I'm leaving it run as it is.
Attachment
- #118
- Nov 5, 2010 8:49am Nov 5, 2010 8:49am
The reverse was triggered when the main move of the week changed it's direction.
An interesting after the fact observation: if we take the two tips of the triangles which form the diamond, and divide their intersection point values by two, we get 1.3865, the point where at the time I thought that perhaps I should close 50% of my trade. The bottom border of the triangle had three touches already, and as we know the 4th approach usually means the break, thus the market did what it was supposed to do, breaking against the main diagonal. I've established...
- #119
- Nov 5, 2010 9:02am Nov 5, 2010 9:02am
Here's how it looks with the break:
Attachment
Or it now could be looked at like this, though there are slight gaps between the middle two approaches.
Attachment
Or even like this, though there's still a little bit of a gap in the middle
Attachment
Will update if I get any trading ideas which would involve the TL.
- #120
- Nov 5, 2010 10:26am Nov 5, 2010 10:26am
Putting a sell order for GBP/JPY, as it is approaching the upper border of a possible wedge, and the bottom border has three touches already. Entry at 132.074, SL - 25pips, at 132.324. No reverse planned yet as, #1 it will require a stop inside the day's range, and #2 I cannot see a reliable low yet. Current 44ADR at 103%.
