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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #21,221
  • Nov 4, 2010 5:29am Nov 4, 2010 5:29am
Quoting fosking
I will start to look at lightening my position at around 74/75.00. I'm not looking to get out of my longs for a loooong time though.
wow that's conviction!
But i must confess I really see long term reversal signs in its PA-character but that's only for the last few days and agree if it is a reversal then long time holding
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #21,222
  • Nov 4, 2010 5:31am Nov 4, 2010 5:31am
Quoting fosking
Here is my current net position on the monthly chart. I have 6 long positions in total atm. avg buy at 81.18.
Looks good....I hope it comes together for you....I'm not that keen!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,223
  • Nov 4, 2010 5:44am Nov 4, 2010 5:44am
Quoting realjumper
Looks good....I hope it comes together for you....I'm not that keen!
Thank you. I don't normally trade UJ but couldn't give this R:R up.
  • #21,224
  • Nov 4, 2010 6:13am Nov 4, 2010 6:13am
its interconnected with EUR USD.... if this reaches 1.45 we will touch the record low 79.7 in USD JPY...

I am looking for a simultaneous touchdown. Why? Maybe crazy in the head...
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #21,225
  • Nov 4, 2010 6:27am Nov 4, 2010 6:27am
Quoting georgem
its interconnected with EUR USD.... if this reaches 1.45 we will touch the record low 79.7 in USD JPY...

I am looking for a simultaneous touchdown. Why? Maybe crazy in the head...
There is BIG resistance at 1.45 on EUR/USD and a good chance of a reversal. Would you say USD/JPY could find the bottom at 79.7 for a reversal too?

EUR/USD Weekly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #21,226
  • Nov 4, 2010 6:44am Nov 4, 2010 6:44am
yes, on what fundamentals the reversal will be based on I cannot say... ... maybe QE2 is now really completely priced in...
...forex has indeed a short time memory only.

I just try to imagine what can create a real reversal with this grave USD situation.
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #21,227
  • Nov 4, 2010 6:48am Nov 4, 2010 6:48am
Quoting georgem
yes, on what fundamentals the reversal will be based on I cannot say... ... maybe QE2 is now really completely priced in...
...forex has indeed a short time memory only.

I just try to imagine what can create a real reversal with this grave USD situation.
Well I have no reason to say this, so ignore it if you want, but why would anyone buy Yen now? Don't all of us here try avoid buying at the top? So why would anyone else invest in the Yen?? Wouldn't it make more sense to invest in the greenback when it's so low? Sounds good to me.....apart from that idiot Bernanke and his oppsit speaking puppet Geither....lol.....
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,228
  • Nov 4, 2010 6:48am Nov 4, 2010 6:48am
Quoting georgem
yes, on what fundamentals the reversal will be based on I cannot say... ... maybe QE2 is now really completely priced in...
...forex has indeed a short time memory only.

I just try to imagine what can create a real reversal with this grave USD situation.

USDX 70 might be bottom
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #21,229
  • Nov 4, 2010 6:49am Nov 4, 2010 6:49am
Quoting georgem
yes, on what fundamentals the reversal will be based on I cannot say... ... maybe QE2 is now really completely priced in...
...forex has indeed a short time memory only.

I just try to imagine what can create a real reversal with this grave USD situation.
If $500bn was truly already priced in then the $600bn could take us up to 1.45.

I honestly don't believe the PIIGS have finished yet, especially Greece! Once traders have slaughtered the Dollar they will turn their attention back to the Euro.
  • #21,230
  • Nov 4, 2010 6:54am Nov 4, 2010 6:54am
Thank you guys...

so we need the following:

- great USD Buying opportunities (technical). CHECK

- Europe becomes the JACKASS again for some months. (fundamental) NOT CHECKED YET, WILL SEE.
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #21,231
  • Nov 4, 2010 7:28am Nov 4, 2010 7:28am
Will the ascending trend line hold?

USD/JPY M5 (01/11-05/11)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy4.png Size: 169 KB
  • #21,232
  • Nov 4, 2010 7:34am Nov 4, 2010 7:34am
Quoting fosking
Will the ascending trend line hold?
No.
  • #21,233
  • Nov 4, 2010 7:41am Nov 4, 2010 7:41am
Next support around 80.58 then 80.50.

USD/JPY M5 (01/11-05/11)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy5.png Size: 172 KB
  • #21,234
  • Nov 4, 2010 8:03am Nov 4, 2010 8:03am
Quoting realjumper
Well I have no reason to say this, so ignore it if you want, but why would anyone buy Yen now? Don't all of us here try avoid buying at the top? So why would anyone else invest in the Yen?? Wouldn't it make more sense to invest in the greenback when it's so low? Sounds good to me.....apart from that idiot Bernanke and his oppsit speaking puppet Geither....lol.....
What you say makes a lot of sense, but the problem is not that people are buying the yen right now (thats not very wise), its that some big boys have held short trades on it since around 15th october when it hit 85.80 and wont let it go until it achieves double bottom at around 79.60.

The nice part (for sellers) about it is that both Fundamental and Technical Analysis has backed them up so far.
  • #21,235
  • Nov 4, 2010 8:47am Nov 4, 2010 8:47am
It seems that the longers are in trouble again, but I think the bubble will burst soon, anyway Noda is watching the currency!!!
Tonight Japan may make a statement and announce more QE!

Or more intervention???

If you're long or short you have something to worry about

Don't worry Noda will come to our rescue
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FF.png Size: 13 KB
I'm watching this currency so closely I'm using windows magnifier
  • #21,236
  • Nov 4, 2010 8:50am Nov 4, 2010 8:50am
voila, EURUSD approaching 1.43
USDJPY falling too, although reluctant....
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #21,237
  • Nov 4, 2010 9:07am Nov 4, 2010 9:07am
CHF strengthening again?

maybe YEN will also play a roll of save heaven the next sessions?

will help downtrend to record low for sure.
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #21,238
  • Nov 4, 2010 9:24am Nov 4, 2010 9:24am
Quoting georgem
CHF strengthening again?

maybe YEN will also play a roll of save heaven the next sessions?

will help downtrend to record low for sure.
I don't think we're going to break below 80; too much concern about Japan's economy and risk of intervention, I can see a slight weakening of the Yen later today, (just my 2 cents worth).
I consider this just a knee jerk and over reaction to the QE2.
If it does break under 80, I don't think it will go far below it, and it's a very good buy at those levels.
I'm watching this currency so closely I'm using windows magnifier
  • #21,239
  • Nov 4, 2010 10:05am Nov 4, 2010 10:05am
I am sure that 80.50 is strong support at this point.and clearly it goes up tomorrow .first target is 81.50.
good luck
Be cool in trade
  • #21,240
  • Nov 4, 2010 10:34am Nov 4, 2010 10:34am
Quoting alidoust
I am sure that 80.50 is strong support at this point.and clearly it goes up tomorrow .first target is 81.50.
good luck
I think 80.30 and possibly 80.10 will be the psychological resistance levels. If those get broken, nothing to stop it until 79.70.
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