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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #21,201
  • Nov 3, 2010 11:33pm Nov 3, 2010 11:33pm
Quoting realjumper
...
If the talking and NFP fail to deliver, then perhaps BOJ will have no choice other than to act. They might act in 10 minutes time....we don't know....but I doubt they will act before NFP.

5c
If this NFP is so important then FED would wait for it as well to decide about QE2...There is no bottom in sight for USDX...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #21,202
  • Nov 3, 2010 11:39pm Nov 3, 2010 11:39pm
DailyFX+ (FXCM):

BOJ SHIRAKAWA: Wont comment on Japanese monetary policy after Fed's decision, says easing among advanced nations can effect FX rates.
4 Nov 12:29:38 AM
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #21,203
  • Nov 3, 2010 11:45pm Nov 3, 2010 11:45pm
just blabbering incoherently ....

QE2 has been announced ... means the original value of USD is diluted .. 1kg of USD used to buy 80kg kg of yen .... now u need 2kg to buy 80kg of yen ... yen expensive now ...that means 1kg of USD can now buy only 40kg of yen ... therefore yen will drop ... wondering why is yen strengthing no good for japan ?

toyota , when they change thier USD into yen , they now get only 40kg of yen instead of 80kg of yen .

therefore japan has to do something to make the 40kg of yen into 80kg of yen ... so they also have to print paper and flood the market .

so all the boats rise with the tide ..

there u are : Paul Krugman wouldn't have explained any better ... I am entitled to the Noble Prize for explaining this .

note : blabbered by someone not in the right statement of mind out of boredom ... double cheeky

-----

(don't worry .. I am alright )
  • #21,204
  • Nov 3, 2010 11:54pm Nov 3, 2010 11:54pm
Quoting TheArcher
just blabbering incoherently ....

QE2 has been announced ... means the original value of USD is diluted .. 1kg of USD used to buy 80kg kg of yen .... now u need 2kg to buy 80kg of yen ... yen expensive now ...that means 1kg of USD can now buy only 40kg of yen ... therefore yen will drop ... wondering why is yen strengthing no good for japan ?

toyota , when they change thier USD into yen , they now get only 40kg of yen instead of 80kg of yen .

therefore japan has to do something to make the 40kg of yen into 80kg of yen ... so they also have...

You are right. We are living in a globalized economy no matter where we are. The G8-G20 folks would try to make decisions in agreements. If Japan prints money and it brings up inflation they would love it for their domestic output sake rather than only exports. Printing money could inflate their economy meeting the 2% developed world's target, and also help devalue the yen in this crucial time. One stone and two poor birds!

I might be wrong, but today may be the last day in this economic turmoil to see this pair trading at its current level.
  • #21,205
  • Nov 4, 2010 12:49am Nov 4, 2010 12:49am
Quoting mima
If this NFP is so important then FED would wait for it as well to decide about QE2...There is no bottom in sight for USDX...
No....NFP has little to do with injecting billions into the economy over the short term (6 months). It is more of a gauge of how the economy is doing (especially employment wise), rather than a stimulas package.

*This* NFP may or may not be so important, we shall have to wait and see. The fact remains though that the May NFP was the start of the bear run in this pair.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,206
  • Nov 4, 2010 1:53am Nov 4, 2010 1:53am
Quoting realjumper
No....NFP has little to do with injecting billions into the economy over the short term (6 months). It is more of a gauge of how the economy is doing (especially employment wise), rather than a stimulas package.

*This* NFP may or may not be so important, we shall have to wait and see. The fact remains though that the May NFP was the start of the bear run in this pair.
I agree with you 100%
the bank of Japan meet and annouce what will they do before the NFP maybe they will say we will be watching currency very closely but I guess there should be something because they rescheduled the meeting from later this month till this friday.
And then NFP would come, if we get positive numbers usd/jpy might move up maybe 100 pip, bad numbers down 100 pip (depends how good or bad the NFP).
  • #21,207
  • Nov 4, 2010 2:34am Nov 4, 2010 2:34am
Trying a long again @ 81.05

H1:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #21,208
  • Nov 4, 2010 2:53am Nov 4, 2010 2:53am
Morning traders! Nice to wake up to a nice spike Still traveling up the ascending trend line for the week. Hope to see weekly pivot R1 visited soon, UJ is looking quite bullish this week.

USD/JPY M5 (01/11-05/11)
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  • #21,209
  • Nov 4, 2010 4:07am Nov 4, 2010 4:07am
It seems like shorts are trying to have it pushed to 79.50's before letting go. What do you think?
  • #21,210
  • Nov 4, 2010 4:38am Nov 4, 2010 4:38am
Bouncing both sides of the weekly pivot. Looks like the Feds extra $600bn could be weighing UJ down. Looking for a break of either trend line for further direction.

USD/JPY M5 (01/11-05/11)
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  • #21,211
  • Nov 4, 2010 4:55am Nov 4, 2010 4:55am
Quoting fosking
Bouncing both sides of the weekly pivot. Looks like the Feds extra $600bn could be weighing UJ down. Looking for a break of either trend line for further direction.

USD/JPY M5 (01/11-05/11)
Attachment
UJ stable while USD is crashing, I'll be adding longs on every down-move
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #21,212
  • Nov 4, 2010 5:00am Nov 4, 2010 5:00am
Quoting USD-Bear
UJ stable while USD is crashing, I'll be adding longs on every down-move
Yeah UJ is a bit strange like that. I'd like to enter long too, but I can't help thinking that this pair will double bottom on the all time low. If that doesn't happen this week, I'll seriously consider a small long
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,213
  • Nov 4, 2010 5:04am Nov 4, 2010 5:04am
Quoting realjumper
Yeah UJ is a bit strange like that. I'd like to enter long too, but I can't help thinking that this pair will double bottom on the all time low. If that doesn't happen this week, I'll seriously consider a small long
Yes understand, I just keep thinking in these cases, is the obvious going to happen?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #21,214
  • Nov 4, 2010 5:10am Nov 4, 2010 5:10am
Quoting realjumper
Yeah UJ is a bit strange like that. I'd like to enter long too, but I can't help thinking that this pair will double bottom on the all time low. If that doesn't happen this week, I'll seriously consider a small long
I've been thinking the same as well, I've even tried a very simple ABCD pattern on my 2 hour USD/JPY chart and (D) falls on around 79.80.
Also the fact that AUD/USD has broken parity and maintained it successfully doesn't encourage an upwards move for the (USD/JPY) yet.
Like I said earlier, it seems sellers are holding on till they see the 79.XX figures.
Any long position before then would probably be really short term.
The USD might start rising after NZD/USD and AUD/USD buyers give up their positions and it rebounds of the all time double bottom.
  • #21,215
  • Nov 4, 2010 5:10am Nov 4, 2010 5:10am
Quoting USD-Bear
Yes understand, I just keep thinking in these cases, is the obvious going to happen?
well, if it is, I reckon the best chance will be NFP....or perhaps what the talking heads say tomorrow at the BOJ press conference.....although it's hard to imagine that they would say anything careless enough to drive it down there.

I just can't see this pair staying down here....or usd/chf....and eu is out of whack with reality, as is cable, the aussie and to a lesser extent the kiwi. It's all due to usd weakness and I have to agree with China in that they are pissed off with the Feds essentially devalueing the greenback, while at the same time telling everyone else not to devalue in case it starts a currency war. Hypocrisy at it's finest
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,216
  • Nov 4, 2010 5:12am Nov 4, 2010 5:12am
Quoting USD-Bear
UJ stable while USD is crashing, I'll be adding longs on every down-move
I started building up a long position back on 13th Oct and have been adding longs all the way down. Dream scenario now would be to have a solid break through the weekly R1 and the move to continue over the next couple of weeks to get the bears scared and force a reversal.
  • #21,217
  • Nov 4, 2010 5:19am Nov 4, 2010 5:19am
Quoting fosking
I started building up a long position back on 13th Oct and have been adding longs all the way down. Dream scenario now would be to have a solid break through the weekly R1 and the move to continue over the next couple of weeks to get the bears scared and force a reversal.
whats your give-up level if I may ask?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #21,218
  • Nov 4, 2010 5:20am Nov 4, 2010 5:20am
Quoting fosking
I started building up a long position back on 13th Oct and have been adding longs all the way down. Dream scenario now would be to have a solid break through the weekly R1 and the move to continue over the next couple of weeks to get the bears scared and force a reversal.
Wow.....that's quite some drawdown you've got there.....can you hang in there if we get into the 79 region?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,219
  • Nov 4, 2010 5:23am Nov 4, 2010 5:23am
Quoting USD-Bear
whats your give-up level if I may ask?
I will start to look at lightening my position at around 74/75.00. I'm not looking to get out of my longs for a loooong time though.
  • #21,220
  • Nov 4, 2010 5:26am Nov 4, 2010 5:26am
Here is my current net position on the monthly chart. I have 6 long positions in total atm. avg buy at 81.18.

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