EURUSD

This is in line with my thoughts thankyou I strongly believe but may be wrong ,that its possible price is being artificially pushed up ready for the real move .

Price action after today and tomorrows red news events will either prove or disprove this theory.
I feel a move above 1.4100 after good news would be early confirmation.
got a pending buy at 1.4060 in case i'am correct.

What time EST is Bernanke supposed to tell the public his plans?

after this elections this is the last chance for Obama staff to show that it will take all the measures to put the economy on steroid

I already won the fair lady some years ago
I'm more in the need of surely increasing my balance than chasing girls !

Anyway, I closed my shorts in profit (from 1.4052 & 1.4037) and made a short re-entry at ... 1.4037 as I think we may be seeing a top here (TL, Kumo, MM & low volume on M5/M15). Position already in profit and sl is 6 pips away (other side of TL), not a big deal if I'm wrong.

EDIT: sl moved to BE.

Hi Mr. Hatch,

I think we will revisit 3990 (fib extension 100% of the recent w-wave) or 3977 (that is the MMTL +2/8 on 15min Chart with p = 256)

hi markus,

we'll see... there are quite a few obstacles on the way. how would that correspond to uj?

i'm fading out on any new rejection of 4010... until i'm flat, or it pops

I'm trying to make an educated guess to the extent of volatility for the FOMC announcement. Does anyone have ready statistics (min, max, distribution, spread on some retail platform,...) of the moves observed during and after FOMC announcements or more generally during the life-time of the EUR or any other USD pair? Thanks.

Gator is the guy for that !

Hello Georg,

oil contracts for your EVO? LOL

127 pips yesterday - good job.

Now I am waiting for a corrective drop in direction to 3990 - 3977 to enter long.

Ich wünsche Dir viel Glück,

Markus

lol

wish you a very happy life with your soul-mate

I am just joking here , anyway well done man .

but for me i will hang on my shorts . till after the news .

every once in a while I have to risk something either give back little or get plenty

anyone can give a link to watch bernanke talk online?

http://www.bloomberg.com/tv/ probly will be on here but slight delay I think, the last "BIG" bernanke announcement was

Since yesterday my view don't changed. we remain in rising channel wich make us belive in a continuation of the short term direction wich is bull. but this short term rising channel is inside of one sideways channel as well and at the top right now and it simply cant go thru. there's just to much resistence. so i think the sideways will prevail once again and 1.3950/60 may be a possibilty til the end of the day.

thank u..

The only chart significant in terms of USDx after FOMC is UST 10 year yield

Overall, it's a crapshoot. No one has a crystal ball - far too many variables, most of them human.

Here's a fairly OK range play; these guys - LFB - post constructive input here on a daily basis.

The Fed Coin-Flick: Eur/Usd 1.3250 or 1.3750 or 1.4250 or 1.5000
Nov 2, 2010 5:47 PM

Markets have to absorb the U.S. mid-term election, while eyeing the FOMC rate statement that will finally reveal the intentions of the Federal Reserve in regard to their need to jump-start a stagnant economy.

The fact that the Fed Chairman Mr. Bernanke floated the idea of quantitative easing such a long time ago has given the market plenty of time to price in what the consensus opinion is as to the amount of freshly printed debt that is deemed suitable to be monetized.
Cold
If the Fed do not reveal a set plan and defined dollar amount in QE aid, expect the Usd to push higher against all currencies, with the strongest moves being against commodity-based Aud and Cad. Equity and commodity markets may get crushed for a sustained period of time: Possible reaction- Eur/Usd 1.3250, S/P 1100 WTI 65.00, Dollar Index 81.00.
Warm
A release that talks of $500 billion would be below the expected estimates, and would likely see mid-term Usd strength and a near-term reversal in equity and commodity trade. The major currencies will likely be sold in orderly fashion as the Usd regains lost September ground: Possible reaction- Eur/Usd 1.3750, S/P 1160, WTI 75.00, Dollar Index 78.00.
Just Right?
With the Fed coming in or close to $1000 billion (a trillion dollars) as expected, the markets would likely receive an initial pop higher against the Usd, equities and commodities would likely move higher in the near-term. This amount would not likely lead to a rally into year-end, instead there will be volatile moves that hit as each regional market opens and close: Possible reaction- Eur/Usd 1.4250, S/P 1220, WTI 90.00, Dollar Index 75.00.
Hot
The chance of the Fed coming in with much over $1 trillion is the least likely scenario, but if a massive one-off blast of liquidity is seen the expectancy would be for sustained moves higher in equities and commodities. The dollar index would move lower to test al-time lows between 70.00-72.00 before any real relief buying is seen: Possible reaction- Eur/Usd 1.5000, S/P 1280, WTI 95.00, Dollar Index 71.00.

hopefully fomc gonna made a big movement like the one did couple of month back.

missed the train last time, now i must hop on later.

We may be back going up. M5 prints HH & HL. This trendline cannot be clearly broken on M15.

Ugly bearish flag or more pronounced up move targetting daily high ?

I have a bullish alpha-target at around 4540-4580...no diamonds any more.

the move towards 3800 is debateble though, but could well happen as "noise" tonight... i don't know, I have never witnessed a qe-announcement before.

gold !!!