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The Force 5min system

  • #3,161
  • Oct 27, 2010 12:26pm Oct 27, 2010 12:26pm
[quote=simpleguy;4126499]
Quote
1. Here is how I do it on the 5 minute TF. I go to the 15 minute and zoom out. Look to the left and find the highest and lowest point. then I draw the line to the next swing high/low that will keep everything either below or under it. then I go down to the 5 minute TF. Here I will draw a secondary line for the shorter term trends.........

Nice post simpleguy and thanks for the valuable insights.

I'm getting hung up on how to tell if a a S/R line will be a breakthrough or just a bounce. Is it as simple as the first and second tests will likely bounce but a third test (and beyond) has a greater likelhood for a breakthrough. I'm following the old statement that the more a S/R line is tested the greater likelihood it will be broken. I'm just trying to translate that into number of tests if possible.

I am setting up my trend lines by requiring that a certain number of bars must be on the left and right side of each high or low for a trendline to be drawn. So a TL with a "20" means that 20 bars have to separate the two highs or lows with no highs or lows in between. If you do this for a series of TLs (let's say at increments of 10) then you'll occasionally have the "10" TL on almost the same line as the "20" and "50" (or even "100") TLs let's say. That will be a confluence of TLs and be stronger in my opinion that just one TL. I am just tinkering with this right now but I like the results so far and it's less subjective.
  • #3,162
  • Oct 27, 2010 12:53pm Oct 27, 2010 12:53pm
[quote=Reset_JL;4127342]
Quoting simpleguy

Nice post simpleguy and thanks for the valuable insights.

I'm getting hung up on how to tell if a a S/R line will be a breakthrough or just a bounce. Is it as simple as the first and second tests will likely bounce but a third test (and beyond) has a greater likelhood for a breakthrough. I'm following the old statement that the more a S/R line is tested the greater likelihood it will be broken. I'm just trying to translate that into number of tests if possible.

I am setting up my trend lines by requiring that...
for me it is as simple as a test, retest and look for a break. Once it's down, I wait for it to close and then a slight pull back to make sure the the buyers are all out of the market. If it comes back I enter either on the open of the low of the previous bar.

Do i miss some great trades, yes i do. But, it works for me.
A woman drove me to drink, and I forgot to thank her
  • #3,163
  • Oct 28, 2010 12:35am Oct 28, 2010 12:35am
[quote=Reset_JL;4127342]
Quoting simpleguy

Nice post simpleguy and thanks for the valuable insights.

I'm getting hung up on how to tell if a a S/R line will be a breakthrough or just a bounce. Is it as simple as the first and second tests will likely bounce but a third test (and beyond) has a greater likelhood for a breakthrough. I'm following the old statement that the more a S/R line is tested the greater likelihood it will be broken. I'm just trying to translate that into number of tests if possible.

I am setting up my trend lines by requiring that a certain...

Try combining your trend lines with horizontal lines of S/R, when they cross it is often a great area to watch. This is what makes flags, pennants etc. So if the flag is forming and it is rising into a strong supply area, you are expecting things to drop. Like with all else we need to stay flexible.

In my chart I posted. Upward trend line. Rising into 61.8 fib and 2 supply areas, the yellow line and the gray box. So inless things change I will be looking to short this pig.

Have fun with it.

Rufus
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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #3,164
  • Oct 28, 2010 2:07am Oct 28, 2010 2:07am
Quoting Rufus
I lay them all out. My goal is to understand how far price can move before I even take the position....
Thanks Rufus
I certainly need to plan my trading more. I took the same signal (which is encouraging!) but as i hadnt seen the demand area so did not get out of the position as you did.
  • #3,165
  • Oct 28, 2010 3:35am Oct 28, 2010 3:35am
Quoting milliellen
Thanks Rufus
I certainly need to plan my trading more. I took the same signal (which is encouraging!) but as i hadnt seen the demand area so did not get out of the position as you did.

Don't sweat it...I still make mistakes as well. The point is that with each mistake you never repeat it. It helps in developing trading disipline. The psychology side of trading is the most over looked.

Rufus
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #3,166
  • Oct 28, 2010 7:00pm Oct 28, 2010 7:00pm
Rufus and all,

Just wanted to pop-up and say that I'am starting to trade this system also.
I've read the 200+ pages and set up the program and indicators. I'am
liking what I see...

Thanks for all your help!

snarlyjack
  • #3,167
  • Nov 1, 2010 3:29am Nov 1, 2010 3:29am
Quoting snarlyjack
Rufus and all,

Just wanted to pop-up and say that I'am starting to trade this system also.
I've read the 200+ pages and set up the program and indicators. I'am
liking what I see...

Thanks for all your help!

snarlyjack
Hi snarly

This is a very good system to learn price action.

It takes a bit of time to learn it well, but if you put in the effort, even traders like me (average at best) can still learn how to trade.

It is worth re-reading it, there is a lot of good stuff especially from FJ and Robdee.

Cheers.

Nice bearish move in this London session, worth some pips.
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What you do is a reflection of you....what I do is a reflection of me.
  • #3,168
  • Nov 1, 2010 9:05am Nov 1, 2010 9:05am
Before I ask my question on daily pip goals I just wanted to say, like many of us I have been on the search for a method that works for me. I have been trading the F5 for a few months (practice and currently live) with success even when I dork a trade and make mistakes because not disciplined enough yet. I have not had a losing week.

However even as early as over this weekend I have been looking at other ways or adding to F5 to make it better etc...always trying to tweak. However, the thought that comes back to my head is when FJ said he tested this for a year in practice and 2 years (at that time) all with 80% winning accuracy. ( I guess I am confessing my trading sins)

So I realize (for me anyways) I have found F5 is what works and every time I try to find something better...I can't. The tweaks make it worse or no better.

The only thing I added was I have the same ema 5 open - close on the H1 and I trade only in that cross direction. Seems to work best for me. I know some use the m15. I do draw my TL on M15 and most often see them broken and a good move is underway.

This leads me to my question. Should one be happy with a goal of +15 or +20 pips a day or should they take all the valid signals? I know that is a question each of us has to answer on their own, but would like some input.

20 pips a day is a pretty good income. But I remember FJ saying he spends 12 to 14 hours a day on computer time and makes 700 pips a week...that amazes me and I can see how he does it logging that many hours.

Just a question that I know you can't answer for me, but would like to know if you have pip goals or how you deal with this.

Thanks
  • #3,169
  • Nov 1, 2010 10:19am Nov 1, 2010 10:19am
Quoting stylesdad
20 pips a day is a pretty good income. But I remember FJ saying he spends 12 to 14 hours a day on computer time and makes 700 pips a week...that amazes me and I can see how he does it logging that many hours.


Thanks
I actually have a goal of 30 pips a day. Some days I get it, some days I dont, and I still make some knuckle headed moves when I trade. (more than I would like to admit) When it comes to trading the eur/usd on the 5 min, this is basically all i do.

Also, remember when FJ was talking on here the market was going crazy, it would start at the London Open and make huge pushes, if you were good at that time you could catch that wave and have nothing to worry about for the day. I chatted with some traders and that was all they did! Then you could get on and do the same thing for the NY Open, that alone could have gotten you close to the big numbers. Also, 700 pips/week was when he hit the market perfect, was able to stack trades, and got in on huge momentums, another words the perfect storm. I personally think his numbers were around 4-500 a week on average still ungodly awesome but much different. He also, was trading naked and got into trades VERY early and kept the 20 pip SL on for a VERY long time sometimes really taking on some risk that I do not feel comfortable with.

I do trade a few other systems/style....on the higher TFs. But that's me. I know i didn't answer your question but I hope that can help you? Besides if you just trade $1/pip and 30 pips a day, that's $150/week/ $600/month, or $7,500/year. at that point you can start to increase your volume and can easily take that to $35,000/year at trading $5/pip, and then the next year....... Remember, it's a marathon and first rule above all first rules, PROTECT YOUR CASH!

Sorry I rambled, hope it helped
A woman drove me to drink, and I forgot to thank her
  • #3,170
  • Nov 1, 2010 10:46am Nov 1, 2010 10:46am
That is actually a great answer. Shooting for 30 a day and getting a bit less is still a good day.

I have been looking at starting at London open (midnight pst) and working till I get my target then off to bed...if not work till 9 am pst. Sleep is overrated. My back trading for Oct hits the target very early most nights.

May I ask...do you take 50% profit at +10 and have another tp to take balance?
  • #3,171
  • Nov 1, 2010 12:19pm Nov 1, 2010 12:19pm
When i was trading on MT4 I was taking half off at +10, since i switch brokers it's a lot harder to do so what i do is just move my SL a lot more aggressively. at +10 I lock in 5 pips, at +15, lock in 10 and from there I let the market set the next SL. I let it run and wait for a retracement and back with the trend. I set my SL at the top of the pull back. I also at this point look for ways to start to stack my trade and I can increase my profits, starting to get better at this.

glad to help,
A woman drove me to drink, and I forgot to thank her
  • #3,172
  • Nov 1, 2010 7:16pm Nov 1, 2010 7:16pm
I am away frow the computer a day and all kinds of activity here...Cool beans.

Stylesdad...You must be on my side of the continent. I am in WA state. I feal your pain when it comes to LO happening at 12:00 am. That is what I try to catch as well.

Catch you guys around.

Rufus
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #3,173
  • Nov 2, 2010 2:37am Nov 2, 2010 2:37am
Short

Short off supply area. First 10 pips off. Stop moved down 10

Rufus
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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #3,174
  • Nov 2, 2010 8:34am Nov 2, 2010 8:34am
Quoting Rufus
Short

Short off supply area. First 10 pips off. Stop moved down 10

Rufus
Took all off before next leg up. Did not take a long. To tired at this point. But interesting stuff on chart.

Rufus
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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #3,175
  • Nov 2, 2010 9:48am Nov 2, 2010 9:48am
Question. If a buy signal happens close to the high of the day (or above the high)...would you pass on trade and start looking for sell opportunities?
  • #3,176
  • Edited 11:56pm Nov 2, 2010 9:51am | Edited 11:56pm
Quoting stylesdad
Question. If a buy signal happens close to the high of the day (or above the high)...would you pass on trade and start looking for sell opportunities?

Usually pass. The only time I will take it is if it is hitting a major S/D zone and was expecting a reversal.

Rufus

I mis-read this... I thought it said sell instead of buy......See post further down
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #3,177
  • Nov 2, 2010 9:55am Nov 2, 2010 9:55am
If you were to choose just one indicator which would it be? The stoch 5-3-3 or the macd 12-26-1? I've noticed that the indicators are not 100% in
lock step with each other. And I guess I would like to just specialize
in one indicator but I'am not sure which one I should choose to hang
my hat on with this system.

Any suggestions would be appreciated.

snarlyjack
  • #3,178
  • Nov 2, 2010 10:14am Nov 2, 2010 10:14am
Quoting snarlyjack
If you were to choose just one indicator which would it be? The stoch 5-3-3 or the macd 12-26-1? I've noticed that the indicators are not 100% in
lock step with each other. And I guess I would like to just specialize
in one indicator but I'am not sure which one I should choose to hang
my hat on with this system.

Any suggestions would be appreciated.

snarlyjack
Both are used for the F5 to be a checks and balances type of thing. Used for further confirmation.

The more important thing here is that the F5 is a tool to help learn price action. Price action is the ultimate indicator. You will get to the point to where when you look at a naked chart you will know where the Stochastics and such are just by seeing price move. So try to use both. There is a template on this thread somewhere that has all the F5 info on it that will alert you when all is in order..

Off to work for me.

Rufus
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #3,179
  • Nov 2, 2010 11:53pm Nov 2, 2010 11:53pm
Quoting stylesdad
Question. If a buy signal happens close to the high of the day (or above the high)...would you pass on trade and start looking for sell opportunities?

I mis-read this when I posted the previous answer.

If it is the present days high I will usually take the buy. Previous days high or low I am a little more careful. For me with situations like this I look for supply and demand areas. So I am not buying into supply or resistance, or selling into support or demand.

But lets look at it deeper.

Lets say 1 hour after Asia opens price hits the high and drops all through London. The US market opens and price turns and starts climbing. Two or three hours latter price is approaching the high that was set with Asia. Now what do you do?

This is where you need to look left on your chart. Why did price turn durring the Asian session? Do I want to take a long position that is 20 pips away from that Asian high? Fibs?, S/R, S/D, trend lines. All these things can be looked at. What I like to do is plan out my chart before I start trading. Lay out problem areas. Trying to understand what the reason is for the price action I am seeing. If I don't understand the price action I leave the trade alone.

So to say "yes take the position" or "No" will have to do with what you see on the chart. Get to the point where the chart is speaking to you.
But even when the chart is speaking sometimes it lies.

Then as it say in Trading In The Zone

"Be rigid in our rules, flexible in our expectations"

Hope this helps, and sorry if I caused any confusion with my previous reply

Rufus
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #3,180
  • Nov 4, 2010 3:30am Nov 4, 2010 3:30am
Quoting Rufus
Short

Short off supply area. First 10 pips off. Stop moved down 10

Rufus
Hi Rufus
I'm really starting to see the logic and simplicity of supply and demand and how you use it. Looking at this entry it appears to me that this was counter trend (5min, 15 min and 1hr). Was wondering if you are not so concerned about the trend or if you do countertrend whether you reduce your lot size and/or tighten your SL? I understood from some of Forexjedi posts (basic and advanced F5 rules) that he was not explicitly concerned (although I guess he traded in whichever way PA was telling him?)
thanks
Milliellen

PS Enjoy your break!
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