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  • #317,961
  • Nov 2, 2010 9:15am Nov 2, 2010 9:15am
Quoting patmarch
It's funny how people throw away numbers on how much risk is too much...without even taking the time to calculate what their system can take...and that's not only you but most people here...

you guys should really read this and try to apply it to your system...I did and it made a HUGE difference in my risk approach..

http://www.seykota.com/tribe/risk/index.htm
Most people don't know what risk really is. They think if you have $5,000 in your account and open up a position that is $1,000, you are currently have a position that has 20% risk...LMFAO!
  • #317,962
  • Nov 2, 2010 9:15am Nov 2, 2010 9:15am
Quoting patmarch
It's funny how people throw away numbers on how much risk is too much...without even taking the time to calculate what their system can take...and that's not only you but most people here...

you guys should really read this and try to apply it to your system...I did and it made a HUGE difference in my risk approach..

http://www.seykota.com/tribe/risk/index.htm
are you assuming that every trade is weighted 50/50?

stan
  • #317,963
  • Nov 2, 2010 9:16am Nov 2, 2010 9:16am
Weekly M3 at 1.4037 then S&R at 1.4046 and then price has to break thru daily M4 at 1.406950 along with another S&R at 1.40739... long fight ahead in the 1 HR chart and price seems overbought... fingers crossed!
  • #317,964
  • Nov 2, 2010 9:16am Nov 2, 2010 9:16am
Quoting druckenmillr
the changes of survival is this market risking more than 4% on a given trade are around 15%.

but i'm sure you knew that. lol
Would you be so kind to share the assumptions you used to derive that result? Thanks.
  • #317,965
  • Nov 2, 2010 9:16am Nov 2, 2010 9:16am
Quoting nebuman213
Guess I'm in the 15%
someone has to be.

stan
  • #317,966
  • Nov 2, 2010 9:16am Nov 2, 2010 9:16am
Quoting goods
Good man. 1.)What tf do you use? 2.) Do you also use fibs and trend line crossings for entries and confirmation of confluence?

3.)Also regarding my post earlier on that monthly eu chart would you please elaborate on your thoughts with that?
1.) Every TF which is trending.

2.) Always.

3.) What exactly would u like to know regarding monthly EU chart?
  • #317,967
  • Nov 2, 2010 9:17am Nov 2, 2010 9:17am
Quoting fx|green
Sellers have it if they want it. Lets see if we roll over.

GL to scalpers.

Attachment
That's the trade I'm waiting for!
  • #317,968
  • Nov 2, 2010 9:18am Nov 2, 2010 9:18am
Quoting druckenmillr
are you assuming that every trade is weighted 50/50?

stan


Not at all...In my case it's 75% winners...25% losers...just do your maths !

And please, read the full article before coming back...

That's my last post about this...I won't argue with you about your risk parameters...this is your business...not mine

Good luck
It's all about your stomach lining...
  • #317,969
  • Nov 2, 2010 9:18am Nov 2, 2010 9:18am
Quoting patmarch
It's funny how people throw away numbers on how much risk is too much...without even taking the time to calculate what their system can take...and that's not only you but most people here...

you guys should really read this and try to apply it to your system...I did and it made a HUGE difference in my risk approach..

http://www.seykota.com/tribe/risk/index.htm
Do you recall what Seykota said he risked in Market Wizards, I dont have it in front of me...thanks PTL
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #317,970
  • Nov 2, 2010 9:21am Nov 2, 2010 9:21am
Quoting maurofx
This is what I see.... Test ot channel's UTL along with R1.
On your chart buddy you look like you are drawings arrows that you want to see.

Notice your line .

160 pips up move about and you got about a 10 pip retrace .

If you look and see whats really there.

look at the lows of the current channel 3 point touch about 70 pips higher than the last low.

So take the last low and add the average of the pips moved by the lows about say 70 pips add that to the most recent low .

That would be from my chart :-
1.3735
1.3809 the three lows
1.3879

around 70 pips

So 1.3879 the last low add 70 pips

the likely low from the charts if it continues is more likely to be about

1.3949.

now draw a line from the high to that .

Does that not look more like what price has been doing?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: $EURUSD (60 Min) 02_11_2010 trend.jpg Size: 115 KB
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #317,971
  • Nov 2, 2010 9:23am Nov 2, 2010 9:23am
Quoting zaphy
Would you be so kind to share the assumptions you used to derive that result? Thanks.
i believe it was in Van Tharp's book.

i'll hunt it down.

stan
  • #317,972
  • Nov 2, 2010 9:25am Nov 2, 2010 9:25am
Quoting patmarch
Not at all...In my case it's 75% winners...25% losers...just do your maths !

And please, read the full article before coming back...

That's my last post about this...I won't argue with you about your risk parameters...this is your business...not mine

Good luck
lol
  • #317,973
  • Nov 2, 2010 9:26am Nov 2, 2010 9:26am
Hi Everyone!

What do you think - how the results from the elections in the US will affect the pair? What do you think is going to happen if democrats loose control?
  • #317,974
  • Nov 2, 2010 9:27am Nov 2, 2010 9:27am
Quoting patmarch
It's funny how people throw away numbers on how much risk is too much...without even taking the time to calculate what their system can take...and that's not only you but most people here...

you guys should really read this and try to apply it to your system...I did and it made a HUGE difference in my risk approach..

http://www.seykota.com/tribe/risk/index.htm

please tell me if i am wrong as that site states

Our PAYOFF equals 2:1 since we win 2 for every 1 we bet.

Luck
 Payoff
 10%
 lose 2
 20%
 lose 1
 30%
 break even
 20%
 win 1
 10%
 win 2
 10%
 win 3

You only win 1 !! 1 is already yours so you need 50% to break even

Edit I 'll admit i haven't read it all !!
  • #317,975
  • Nov 2, 2010 9:29am Nov 2, 2010 9:29am
If I remember well, Seykota risks about 2% per trade...but he carries multiple trades so it could add too much more than 2% of his total equity...

Furthermore this is not the point..Seykota takes his risk according to HIS calculations...It is pointless to copy what the guy is doing because your approach is probably totally different.

Your own calculation..given that you take the time to do it, will give you some very different results.

Saying that risking more than 2% is crazy is nothing else than a very lazy way to summarize the very complicated yet vital part of trading that is position sizing...

Do your maths...you could be surprised of how little return you're making compared to what you could...

Good luck
It's all about your stomach lining...
  • #317,976
  • Nov 2, 2010 9:29am Nov 2, 2010 9:29am
Quoting swing 123
Hi guys

Risk appetite may be near take off? GBP/USD daily close above 1.6 is concerning for USD BULLS and RBA raises bench mark rate by 25basis points. this may take us close to key resistance of daily close above 1.4 and if QE2 is implimented and if more than expected then we may have a flyer and vice versa? key resistance right now 3945 break above should take us to 1.4?
Hi guys

anything new? e/u added another 40/50 pips lets c if daily close above 1.4?
  • #317,977
  • Nov 2, 2010 9:29am Nov 2, 2010 9:29am
Trading is all bout lining up the probabilities on your side. And its ok to be seeing something everyone else is missing.

However your charts are ... off (maurofx)

Enjoy this comic (its not supposed to relate to current PA)

Attached Image
  • #317,978
  • Nov 2, 2010 9:32am Nov 2, 2010 9:32am
With the sharp move up we can conclude, that we are either in wave 5 action, or we are still in a wave blue e of a triangle in wave red D.

The latter one is less likely, because triangles normally go sideways, even in running triangles, where the B wave exceeds the starting point of the A wave.

So I go with the first option, that we have concluded the whole triangle and are in wave 5 action.

For all the people complaining about Elliott Wave International (EWI) to be constantly wrong, this round goes clearly to EWI.

Hochberg wrote in his short term update, yesterday night, that wave E of the triangle "......is ending now". I didn't believed it and was taught a lesson this morning :-)

Due to the fact that I was not able to trade last night and this morning I had staggered shorts in my order-list, because I had the strong believe that price would revisit the lows for concluding wave E of the triangle around 1.38 or deeper.

Well: lesson learned

We are impulsing higher.

This morning I wrote:

"When we have concluded the triangle at 3863, the the target for such a thrust would be 4326.

Sometimes we see instead of a thrust a prolonged wave 5. That would be the case, when 4326 will be overrun."

Nothing more to say at the moment........

Confirmation should bring a break of wave red B of the triangle at 4080


Pics, as ever, on my blog which can be accessed through my signature
  • #317,979
  • Nov 2, 2010 9:34am Nov 2, 2010 9:34am
Quoting patmarch
If I remember well, Seykota risks about 2% per trade...
thanks, havent read that book for ages.....
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #317,980
  • Nov 2, 2010 9:35am Nov 2, 2010 9:35am
Learning Tough Lessons

Traders can avoid this fate by controlling their risks through stop losses. In Jack Schwager's famous book "Market Wizards" (1989), day trader and trend follower Larry Hite offers this practical advice: "Never risk more than 1% of total equity on any trade. By only risking 1%, I am indifferent to any individual trade." This is a very good approach. A trader can be wrong 20 times in a row and still have 80% of his or her equity left.
The reality is that very few traders have the discipline to practice this method consistently. Not unlike a child who learns not to touch a hot stove only after being burned once or twice, most traders can only absorb the lessons of risk discipline through the harsh experience of monetary loss. This is the most important reason why traders should use only their speculative capital when first entering the forex market. When novices ask how much money they should begin trading with, one seasoned trader says: "Choose a number that will not materially impact your life if you were to lose it completely. Now subdivide that number by five because your first few attempts at trading will most likely end up in blow out." This too is very sage advice, and it is well worth following for anyone considering trading FX.

http://www.goforex.net/forex-money-management.htm
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