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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #5,321
  • Nov 2, 2010 5:40am Nov 2, 2010 5:40am
Thanks mate
  • #5,322
  • Edited 6:26am Nov 2, 2010 5:50am | Edited 6:26am
...trying to do stuff here realtime...current EU short setup pending..order in @22.

Edit: 13:13 - 22 filled, i'll take 50% off @98 if it gets there.

Edit: 13:24 - now turning into a bull flag, will probably be stopped out. Stop is currently @43.
Attached Image
  • #5,323
  • Nov 2, 2010 6:29am Nov 2, 2010 6:29am
[quote=sidefx;4140562
Edit: 13:24 - now turning into a bull flag, will probably be stopped out. Stop is currently @43.[/quote]

Out @27 for -5.
  • #5,324
  • Nov 2, 2010 6:41am Nov 2, 2010 6:41am
EU, now long from 36...edit will take half off @50.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2nd Nov EU 4.PNG Size: 52 KB
  • #5,325
  • Nov 2, 2010 6:50am Nov 2, 2010 6:50am
Quoting sidefx
EU, now long from 36...edit will take half off @50.
50% off and stops to b/e, as EU is already @ ADR. Won't live trade another one, as hogging thread, but i think it would be useful if the thread contained live commentary on set ups as they're forming, so that we learn what considerations more experienced guys take into account before pulling the trigger. IMHO.
  • #5,326
  • Nov 2, 2010 7:09am Nov 2, 2010 7:09am
Quoting sidefx
50% off and stops to b/e, as EU is already @ ADR. Won't live trade another one, as hogging thread, but i think it would be useful if the thread contained live commentary on set ups as they're forming, so that we learn what considerations more experienced guys take into account before pulling the trigger. IMHO.
Thanks for all that, mate. It was interesting to watch as each scenario unfolded, and I'm glad you got something out of it. Don't worry about hogging the thread........as you're no doubt aware, it's been like a desert island recently!! Lots of ships passing, looking in and then heading for the horizon!! A few more contributors would brighten the place up a bit, that's for sure! In addition, I agree re the live commentary thing.
Thanks again.
  • #5,327
  • Nov 2, 2010 7:27am Nov 2, 2010 7:27am
OK, thanks EV. I've decided to short GU (from 6014) on a fib play, it's targeting the 138.2 extension which is within a few pips of a weekly pivot around 5915....lots of 'stuff' in the way first though
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2nd Nov GU 1.PNG Size: 86 KB
  • #5,328
  • Nov 2, 2010 1:25pm Nov 2, 2010 1:25pm
hi ev, is you main pivot line a daily, hourly, weekly, monthly or 4hour pivot line? thank you,
  • #5,329
  • Edited 2:37pm Nov 2, 2010 2:25pm | Edited 2:37pm
Hi EV
Got the same entry as yours. Exited in 2 parts , 2nd exit
with a TP @ 4000 , not far away from Y's H , for an average of +60 pips .
I am using a ribbon of 2 ema's (34+13) .
I am trying to take trades in the direction of the ema's cross.
In addition I am trying to hold the trade "as much as possible" (not as in this trade) guided by this ribbon.
I don't know what's the best exit strategy , but we can use for example the angle of the ema13 ,
others may wait till the will see a coming cross of ema's, etc,.
As far as the angle is up , we can try to stay in the trade and trail the SL .
A flat ema13 may indicate a consolidation period and we may move our SL bellow the last swing (an idea) ...
An other issue regarding exits is that I try to look also how far are we from the daily pips range.
If for example the current daily range is 100 pips and the average for the EU is 150 pips , so it may indicate there is more room for a move of an extra 50 pips (hopefully in our direction).
I know you are very successful with your strategy but I would like to ask for your opinion of this approach to try to stay longer in the trade.
Tks
David

Quoting eyevoltage
15m EU.

A bullish piercing pattern formed on the 34ema and the Main Pivot Line confluence. Entry and exit as shown.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu Long +60 m15.jpg Size: 162 KB
  • #5,330
  • Nov 2, 2010 3:48pm Nov 2, 2010 3:48pm
[quote=reflex;4137365]Haha I do every morning I just realized why I didn't think there was news I forgot the clocks went back so the news I thought was coming at 13.30pm was actually like you said at 12.30pm.

Thanks again.

I have no idea why it doesn't work when I put them on I get this on a monday Chart below.




Good evening chaps & chapesses, although it will probably be morning when you read this.

Its such a long time since I was in a position to intra-day trade. However I do still get email updates on the thread because the guys here are so good, and will return certainly to read what has been happening in the 13 months since I was in a position to trade.

However, Reflex, I understand the problem. I used to suffer this when trading indices & commodities. Its a problem caused by the timing of trading over the weekend. Solving it isnt so easy. I dont like the charts on IG when compared to MT4, but even on MT4 the figures depend upon your broker and your preferred set up of timings for your indicators. (I used to prefer to set them for 1am UK time, but better to follow your resident expert, EV)

Suggest that you then calculate PPs based upon Fridays close and draw lines on your charts on Monday and see how price action reacts to these over a few weeks. If you can back-test all the better. Any variation from weekend price movements should be "lost" within Mondays opening price.

Much better if you have MT4 and use your IG account for trading rather than charting. The price variation is negligible if you are using a big broker eg Alpari.

I know its a pain calculating PPs. In fact I have just started to find time to analyse Indices and have put together a PP spreadsheet, which Ive attached if its any use to anyone. The contents are irrelevant for you but the formulae are all in place, and you can tap in numbers for a score of days if you want to backtest.

Successful trading to you all. Dont get caught tomorrow by Bernankes economic bullsh*t announcements that may create reactionary price spikes before hurtling the opposite way! I got stopped out today on FTSE as I suspect prices rose on another stop-hunting expedition today before they start to tumble after the announcements. I am not setting up any trades for tomorrow!!!

Hope I can return soon. TTFN
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Indices PPs Oct10.xls   58 KB | 319 downloads
  • #5,331
  • Nov 3, 2010 2:16am Nov 3, 2010 2:16am
Quoting samk090905
hi ev, is you main pivot line a daily, hourly, weekly, monthly or 4hour pivot line? thank you,
My pivots are daily ones, mate.
  • #5,332
  • Nov 3, 2010 3:15am Nov 3, 2010 3:15am
Hi EV
I trust you are well.

Eur uptrend, 15 min bull flag, if I had got to computer earlier I would have looked to buy the psych level itself. Anyway entry shown exit at Y's high for +20.
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Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #5,333
  • Nov 3, 2010 3:33am Nov 3, 2010 3:33am
Quoting david4u
Hi EV
Got the same entry as yours. Exited in 2 parts , 2nd exit
with a TP @ 4000 , not far away from Y's H...
I've been watching your posts on V's thread, and your ribbon MAs seem to be working very well for you.
My opinion of your approach is that you seem to have it pretty well nailed down, David. I can't really add anything, because it isn't really my style of trading, when all said and done. I like to get in a trade, get out with a modest profit and then lie in wait for the next one to come along. A very basic way of doing things, mate, but it seems to work pretty well!
Sorry I can't be of more help, mate.
  • #5,334
  • Nov 3, 2010 3:35am Nov 3, 2010 3:35am
Quoting Vantage
Hi EV
I trust you are well.

Eur uptrend, 15 min bull flag, if I had got to computer earlier I would have looked to buy the psych level itself. Anyway entry shown exit at Y's high for +20.
Good stuff, Dave. There's been some nice moves this morning, but I've missed them due to other duties, I'm afraid.
Yeah, I'm fine.......my best to Mrs.V.
Cheers.
  • #5,335
  • Nov 3, 2010 3:43am Nov 3, 2010 3:43am
Quoting eyevoltage
Good stuff, Dave. There's been some nice moves this morning, but I've missed them due to other duties, I'm afraid.
Yeah, I'm fine.......my best to Mrs.V.
Cheers.
Yes some good moves, we had a nice +20 on gu earlier, tried to get the hl at 6050 but it exploded through and we got a re-quote which we didn't take as it was really moving. These things happen.

Some patience was rewarded with the above trade. 2 x +20 today no losers I'm happy.
  • #5,336
  • Nov 3, 2010 3:47am Nov 3, 2010 3:47am
Quoting Vantage
Yes some good moves, we had a nice +20 on gu earlier, tried to get the hl at 6050 but it exploded through and we got a re-quote which we didn't take as it was really moving. These things happen.

Some patience was rewarded with the above trade. 2 x +20 today no losers I'm happy.
2 x +20 trades means Mrs.V's happy too, so no wonder YOU'RE happy!!
Well done, mate(s).
  • #5,337
  • Nov 3, 2010 3:57am Nov 3, 2010 3:57am
I wasn't around to see this one forming, but it's a nice example of an ascending triangle pattern and what SHOULD happen after it's formed!! It doesn't always, of course, but this one would have been worth initially around 20-ish pips.
Attached Image
  • #5,338
  • Nov 4, 2010 5:46am Nov 4, 2010 5:46am
Afternoon, folks.
I don't use fibs as often as I should really, and when I see chances like this one go by, I could kick myself.
A retrace to around the 38.2% line and then a trend continuance with a strong confluence along the way, which, after a brief hesitation, price just breezed through, and was probably a good place to take half off right there, and move the stop up.
Price was then halted at the next barrier, the mid-point/FE 61.8% confluence, which is a great place to jump ship completely with a nice profit.
It's really worth watching out for these opportunities, and I should without a doubt, listen to my own advice!!
Attached Image
  • #5,339
  • Nov 4, 2010 6:54am Nov 4, 2010 6:54am
Quoting eyevoltage
Afternoon, folks.
I don't use fibs as often as I should really, and when I see chances like this one go by, I could kick myself.
A retrace to around the 38.2% line and then a trend continuance with a strong confluence along the way, which, after a brief hesitation, price just breezed through, and was probably a good place to take half off right there, and move the stop up....
Great observation Boss. I am working from home today and have taken time out to catch up on the thread. Ive read everything Ive missed in the last 12 months & your charts & explanations continue to be absolutely brilliant.

I am at last understanding the shape and significance of candlesticks, and altho Ive always been amazed at the accuracy of FIB retracements, seeing your use of the expansion is a new tool that is more meaningful as Ive recently read some basic Elliott Wave theory, and am beginning to understand a much bigger picture and use of Gann numbers.

By the way, I cant understand why anyone wouldnt want to understand candlestick formations.

EV you are a gem
  • #5,340
  • Nov 4, 2010 7:41am Nov 4, 2010 7:41am
Quoting Barry Cade
Great observation Boss. I am working from home today and have taken time out to catch up on the thread. Ive read everything Ive missed in the last 12 months & your charts & explanations continue to be absolutely brilliant.

I am at last understanding the shape and significance of candlesticks, and altho Ive always been amazed at the accuracy of FIB retracements, seeing your use of the expansion is a new tool that is more meaningful as Ive recently read some basic Elliott Wave theory, and am beginning to understand a much bigger picture and use of...
No fibbing? Love it!!!

Welcome back, BC, and many thanks for your kind comments. I have to admit that I'm not into Elliott Wave or Gann numbers, but if they add more strings to your bow, then go for it, mate!!

If you're going to be around for a while, then I'll look forward to your observations, charts etc.

Take it easy, mate!
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