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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #20,921
  • Edited 12:49pm Oct 31, 2010 12:37pm | Edited 12:49pm
Current price is 80.59
  • #20,922
  • Oct 31, 2010 1:07pm Oct 31, 2010 1:07pm
oanda is already showing 80.28
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #20,923
  • Oct 31, 2010 1:27pm Oct 31, 2010 1:27pm
Quoting georgem
oanda is already showing 80.28
XE.com now showing 80.29, will we start higher or lower lol
  • #20,924
  • Oct 31, 2010 2:51pm Oct 31, 2010 2:51pm
Quoting fontu
Hello to who uses this thread . just my viwes about it now , how it will not know if usdx continue breaking mode !

anyway it is almost to extreme low & even though bear contiuation possible yet expecting very good bounce from around the low extreme .
good luck .perhaps it is 2nd strogest to weakest currency pair so far.
Another pair of interest at the same time to work with for the bounce is strongest to weakest usdchf ,greatly bear continued already & bounced some recently but the farthest low still be expected before they together bounce &...
Thank you for that Fontu.....you took the words right out of my mouth
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,925
  • Oct 31, 2010 3:06pm Oct 31, 2010 3:06pm
79.82 is next "support" and then 79.32.

Good luck + good trading

MisterTrader
________________________________ Errare humanum est
  • #20,926
  • Oct 31, 2010 4:04pm Oct 31, 2010 4:04pm
it's around 80.30 now and everything is pointing to weaker dollar at least on Monday 80.75 will be touched and lower I guess.
but in reality let us wait and see, it is going to be an interesting week.
  • #20,927
  • Oct 31, 2010 4:41pm Oct 31, 2010 4:41pm
Quoting georgem
Yes, I read the article many times in the last days...
I find it good that you are bearish... always go with the trend, we need confirmation of an uptrend first.... I would hedge, and use the bearish profits to put them on the bullish account... but wait with the bullish positions until we have some drastic happenings!
No you mistake me, I have a small long position, which was obviously a d mistake, but I wouldn't go short even though I'm expecting this to fall the more (hoping it wont of course).
I might add to my long later if I see a proper reversal forming, but shorting is too risky with any possibility of BOJ intervention which the G7 meeting was in favour of to stop extreme volatility, rather than manipulation. No, anytime this goes under 80 intervention is a real and strong possibility so beware, I wouldn't want to be short when it happens
I'm watching this currency so closely I'm using windows magnifier
  • #20,928
  • Oct 31, 2010 4:44pm Oct 31, 2010 4:44pm
Good evening all,

don't like to think the obvious will happen, so long @ 80.30 SL @ 79.70 in case the obvious will happen.....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #20,929
  • Oct 31, 2010 4:50pm Oct 31, 2010 4:50pm
Quoting Moneyright
No you mistake me, I have a small long position, which was obviously a d mistake, but I wouldn't go short even though I'm expecting this to fall the more (hoping it wont of course).
I might add to my long later if I see a proper reversal forming, but shorting is too risky with any possibility of BOJ intervention which the G7 meeting was in favour of to stop extreme volatility, rather than manipulation. No, anytime this goes under 80 intervention is a real and strong possibility so beware, I wouldn't want to be short when it happens
Eitherway... I am waiting for going long... I have a small position short right now, but also some micropositions long...
I dont know... I will keep ammunition ready for the bullride... but shorting small size is the best idea right now...
(in anticipation of further pain in the ass)
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #20,930
  • Oct 31, 2010 5:08pm Oct 31, 2010 5:08pm
Quoting georgem
Eitherway... I am waiting for going long... I have a small position short right now, but also some micropositions long...
I dont know... I will keep ammunition ready for the bullride... but shorting small size is the best idea right now...
(in anticipation of further pain in the ass)
The best I can hope for is a sort of reversed head and shoulder formation at the moment which has been talked about, (right shoulder being created now), but I can't help feeling that 79.75 is acting like a magnet for this pair. Either way I think we're in for a very strong bounce sometime soon, intervention or not, it's certainly worth the waiting for.
I'm watching this currency so closely I'm using windows magnifier
  • #20,931
  • Oct 31, 2010 5:24pm Oct 31, 2010 5:24pm
I think one indicator for JP intervention is JPY index -- in other words, JPY needs to be strong against all other major currencies for interventions. Right now, UJ is going down, but EJ is going up. GY is also ranging.

I think a critical moment is when JPY gets strong in all these pairs.
  • #20,932
  • Oct 31, 2010 5:27pm Oct 31, 2010 5:27pm
Quoting Moneyright
The best I can hope for is a sort of reversed head and shoulder formation at the moment which has been talked about, (right shoulder being created now), but I can't help feeling that 79.75 is acting like a magnet for this pair. Either way I think we're in for a very strong bounce sometime soon, intervention or not, it's certainly worth the waiting for.
short timeframe: i will go short
longer timeframe: I expect a bounce
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #20,933
  • Oct 31, 2010 5:40pm Oct 31, 2010 5:40pm
There are only 3 reasons I could think of why USDJPY going south:

1. Trade Surplus: As money goes to Japan, it is converted to JPY.

2. Risk Aversion. Scared of bad economy, go to more stable economy. Now this boggles me. Japan is not in any better shape than most western economies (USA, Europe) with GDP lagging behind in the last decade or two. strong jpy had slowed much of its export economy.

3. Speculation: this perhaps is the strongest reason I could think of. People are just betting this arse off. speculators got more money to push it down more than BOJ could pull it back up. it is all in the money. although more retail traders are long on this pair, however, most of these "long" are virtual and does not hit the real market thus insignificant impact. only the big money speculators could push it down.
  • #20,934
  • Oct 31, 2010 5:47pm Oct 31, 2010 5:47pm
anyone want to have a guess at the next intervention level by the BOJ?
  • #20,935
  • Oct 31, 2010 5:48pm Oct 31, 2010 5:48pm
Quoting BurgerKing
There are only 3 reasons I could think of why USDJPY going south:

1. Trade Surplus: As money goes to Japan, it is converted to JPY.

2. Risk Aversion. Scared of bad economy, go to more stable economy. Now this boggles me. Japan is not in any better shape than most western economies (USA, Europe) with GDP lagging behind in the last decade or two. strong jpy had slowed much of its export economy.

3. Speculation: this perhaps is the strongest reason I could think of. People are just betting this arse off. speculators got more money to push it...
Can't argue with those reasons.....this is an interesting article that may shed a bit of light on this subject: http://www.forexblog.org/2010/10/why...ll-rising.html
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,936
  • Oct 31, 2010 5:55pm Oct 31, 2010 5:55pm
Quoting BurgerKing
There are only 3 reasons I could think of why USDJPY going south:

...
...The second source of demand for Japanese Yen is so-called safe haven flows. While the Japanese Yen is not a high-yielding currency, it is actually an excellent store of value. [This is one of the three primary functions that a currency should fulfill. The other two are medium of exchange and unit of account]...

http://www.forexblog.org/2010/10/why...ll-rising.html
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #20,937
  • Oct 31, 2010 6:15pm Oct 31, 2010 6:15pm
Quoting mima
...The second source of demand for Japanese Yen is so-called safe haven flows. While the Japanese Yen is not a high-yielding currency, it is actually an excellent store of value. [This is one of the three primary functions that a currency should fulfill. The other two are medium of exchange and unit of account]...

http://www.forexblog.org/2010/10/why...ll-rising.html
True.

It is one of the many currencies in the world that does not depreciate much in the face of inflation. CNY is another one; although china is heating too much, it could be in for a hard fight against inflation.
  • #20,938
  • Oct 31, 2010 6:21pm Oct 31, 2010 6:21pm
Quoting fmc2
anyone want to have a guess at the next intervention level by the BOJ?

79.15
  • #20,939
  • Oct 31, 2010 6:36pm Oct 31, 2010 6:36pm
Quoting fmc2
anyone want to have a guess at the next intervention level by the BOJ?
I might be wrong but Japs have meeting on Thursday 11-4-10...and I think no intervention yet...Until then is beyond my imagination how low will be UJ.
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #20,940
  • Oct 31, 2010 6:37pm Oct 31, 2010 6:37pm
is it more probable that BoJ will intervene when tokio bourse is open? Or can they intervene anytime 24/7?
If they want to intervene when tokio is closed dont they have to use the help of another central bank?
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
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