USD/JPY Discussion

I will get out of this pair soon.

I hope the next "mini-intervention" will be enough to save my neck, and get out of this mess.
...it could very well be that after the break of 79.70 it can go much lower and stay in this low regions for a long time...

So its not so much about the money making or losing... its more about the time I will waste waiting for something to happen... I should return to watching other pairs too... I hate this situation I am in, because it is so much Yen Oriented.

How many of you are long UJ, and have set your stop loss between 79.74 and 78.50? It is my belief that these stops must be taken out first, before we will have a bullish run.

Liv, Laf, Luv,

Pangufx

Illusion that BOJ will intervene was created and many traders are long...Market can be longer irrational then trader solvent...

correct..since 2004 people saying the same thing which Japan economic going to collapse, but till today still none happen....same to this year intervence...i saw all the manufacturing data as well as export..still like that...i did not see anythings worse

the way i saw Uj is my first time chart cheat me where it should turn up base on 2 weekly pin, but it not.
i did in reverse from what i saw from my chart where trying to short at 81.80..n the funny part is still manage for 110+ pips yesterday...close out early as GDP news coiming out..mmm

when i saw the chart today...walla...30pips more down...mmm
by right we should c at least 84 area last week but it not happen...

so look to me the bear still not yet end....it could be more i think...n i dun believe in what ever BOJ say...all is bull shit...

I am going to off UJ for a while n back to GY next week n continue with my EU as well....

enjoys ur weekend...

g

Just think where is the most chance to win big money?, hitting all those SL accumulating bellow 80.00, so a big investor starts selling testing the market reacting and then, booom! big sell here, big sell there and SL's being hit drives the pair 50 pips down in 10 minutes.

I see my position as a vote, I already voted on the bull side. That Oanda chart show us how many had voted for the bull side, and still no rally. I can vote again, you know, I'll have to close my current position, and then buy again so my "vote" counts again (and thats 1 std lot, a nano vote).

Well we will see if the world turns around in 24 hours.

Yes, but when is this big investor going to take profit? When he does take profit he has to go long, no?

In that moment he will contribute to an uptrend.

Probably the below 80 zone is a zone that will make many big investors take profit finally... and this will help the uptrend.

That's the sad part of the story, my SL is on 80.00 I'm not taking chances on that 50 pips drop. So I won't be on that TP rally.

I wouldn't be surprised if UJ comes down to 70.00 or even 60.00 in 3-5 years. It depends on the US economy. But for next couple of months, UJ is going to hit the bottom (80-78), then, climb up to 85-90. After that UJ again starts descending.

I think UJ is good pair to trade because it has relatively predictable long-term trend and better spread.

depends on how it react to this support:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=20869

Very interesting article in zerohedge:

TV Pricing Bloodbath Threatens Already Razor-Thin Retailer Margins, Will Send Japanese FX Interventions Into Overdrive

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tv-...apanese-fx-int

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...-screen-sm.jpg

I have been predicting the AUDUSD fairly accurately over the last couple of days so I thought I would have a look at the USDJPY.

I have a price time match on the week of the 21.11.2010, I would be interested in buying the USDJPY at these levels IF it gets to them ideally in that week that I expect the turn. I am not interested in the price levels before the turn is due, so if it falls to 78.40 on Monday I am not interested in buying until the market comes to my time prediction. I have zeroed in on the day and the day I would look for the turn would be the 27th 12.2010 at one of my price levels

78.40
76.78
73.95

We might be close to a bottom but I don't think we are there yet.


Good luck to you all


Mike Haran

USD/JPY is a completely diff. beast.

- Get over yourself, everything you've mentioned here has been mentioned many times before.

Calm down - Your still high off yourself.

Time to point some things out about this, for any beginning traders.
Yet recently you wrote this:
Some things need to get called out: all your previous posts I have read are in the overwhelmingly short on detail category, with rare if any references to support, resistance or other techniques that can work. In the 11 days of FF existence with your apparent years of fx expertise, there are lots of references to the past PA, but I can see no price predictions in previous posts. Your previous chart posts seem to consist of little more than than ABC zig zag patterns drawn over existing short term PA.

Your profile states 4+ year fulltime trader, yet here you're a beginner? Out by 20-30 pips? Most interim and veteran traders can do that, much of the time. Yet, apparently interplanetary mumbo-jumbo is what much of your calls seem to be based on, which you have spared readers here to the USDJPY thread on. At the bottom quote, you profess to have no idea why Sunday nights sometimes see currencies fall, and then proceed to explain it away with planet alignment? Is this for real?!!

You've zeroed in on Dec 27 as the turning point? One of the most illiquid periods in the year, when institutional traders are nary present? You don't seem to display any understanding of what drives fx trading nor the complexities of globally codependent currencies for the world's reserve currency and the quagmire that is and has been Japan, and yet you're offering readers USDJPY predictions down to the penny along with exact dates?!!?! As has already been suggested, you need to start with getting over yourself, getting in touch with reality, and spare readers the remainder ...

Interesting that there's a supposed real name diligently printed at the bottom of every post, and has a web site tied to it, that might be running soon, to which we'll all get invitations to I suspect. Just thought I would take a few minutes to research on behalf of other readers some of the gross inconsistencies of your postings and how they appear to be derived.

Here we are...Noda needs astrology....

Lot more than ABCD patterns going on in my predictions. I don't use planetary alignments to trade on, but I happened to point out an occurence that I found interesting thats all.

More than happy to make predictions on the AUDUSD and USDJPY, as to them being different currencies, I don't think that matters too much. All traded instruments peform to similar criteria. Just because I have web site does not mean that I am some sort of evil entity that preys on traders I have seen too much of that go on.

I called the top in the AUDUSD recently to the hour an within 0.0002 pips before it happened. I don't need to justify myself to you but I do because there are so many negative traders like you about that think you have seen it all and know it all, trust me you don't.

I help traders think outside the box, look at other aspects of analysis which to be honest you possibly have never bothered with as you obviously know it all already. Keep your negativity, give other people the chance to contribute without jumping on them without bothering to examine what they say. Its people like you that destroy what little faith I have in human nature. Either you were badly emotionally rejected as a child or you are just aggressive by nature what ever it is please keep your poison to yourself and let others prove their worth to this forum, unless of course your fragile ego can't stand the fact that their might be other people that know more than you.

Go look at my AUDUSD predictions before you start making statement which are totally unfounded. I will be more than happy to justify my existance here.

The sun is the juice in our solar system, every day our earth is bombarded with electromagnetic energy from the sun causing massive electrical activity in the upper atmoshere. Your body from head to toe has about 25-40 vols of induced current running through it. As I am sure you are aware your brain runs off voltage in the nano region, yet you are walking about in an ellectic field many times the order of magnitude larger. What you might not know is that electromagnetic field cause changes in blood ph which directly effect mood. So considering that many traders are human hence emotional mood will directly influence their trading decision.

http://www.electric-cosmos.org/sun.htm

Sun spots, solar activity all directly effect us down here on the earth global warming, crop cycles, weather patterns are all directly linked to solar activity. The planets push and pull the sun about causing the outer layer of the sun to twist and sometime break off, even you will have heard of solar flares, when these hit the planet they cause the magnetosphere to energise and cause the aurora borealis, billions of volts of electricity snapping above your head, causing ionisation of the earths gases that combine to produce the ozone layer.

When you think that planetary positions effect the sun, it is little wonder that the interplay might cuase some effect here on earth on a very physical level. Lister was laughed at by people that thought his ideas about germs was madness, in fact most people are not prepared to think. I approach it in a scientific way, if I see an effect I watch it and look for the effect to repeat. If it does then it becomes an indicator, just as valid as an RSI, MACD or any indicator you care to mention.



Mima, I looked at the occurence of this and the effect on the AUDUSD, I went back to 2003 and I found 10 dates where the venus sun aspect was zero, every single date produced a turn, some big some small, in the 10 examples I looked at each date marked a turn. Surely chance I think not????

Just to show some of you that I am a little more than an abcd trader have a look at my fast fall fractal on the audusd, the reaction point was the outer circle and point D was about 14 pips from the actual low.


Mike Haran

P.S I understand now your Canadian :-)

I like you, at least you don't slag me off.


:-)

Mike

OK, let's do this. I did expect to hear back. I'm glad you responded. But not, as you claim, because I like to attack and be negative - but because I drew on your facts, or lack of, in calling USDJPY. Something, BTW that very few respectable analysts will do these days, and if they do, it's very tentative they admit. More assertive and specific, your post could not have been.

In the specific post we're taking about you laid out some fairly specific data and very specific levels on what USDJPY was going to hit, and when. You were pretty precise about it. But, not one reason why you made that conclusion. Zero. You pick certain dates but you don't rationalize why. Nothing. Then you pick specific price levels, but with no explanation why or how you got to them other than price and time. So, wouldn't someone think how were these targets picked? Could it have been with darts? Could it have been numbers drawn from a hat? Would any of these techniques been worse or better? The reader is left wondering IMO.

As far as I can tell, you've not responded to most of the questions in my post. People ask for clarification all the time around here, and, you've not offered up any explanations, yet. Dec 27 is a very unusual date for a significant turn ... I have traded that period as a retailer, and, there's just no smart money in play. BTW, I did trade USDJPY on the intervention - it was wonderful, but, unfortunately, I gave too much of it back when intervention #2 did not materilize. As of a few weeks, I don't know when USDJPY is going to reverse or for how far - there are far too many variables and possible scenarios, and, there are sooo many other pairs to trade.

No you don't. I didn't ask for you to justify yourself, just some reason for how you picked your levels. I'm sure you will agree anyone can pick numbers, but credence comes with at least some explanation. And whatever they were - and it might have been inadvertent - they were left out of the post. The chart didn't contain any additional clues, that at least I could see.

Sure, I can see the rationale for being called negative, but I was just questioning your gross lack of facts in the posting, and, the seeming inconsistencies from previous posts.

Not sure what that out of the box thinking is in this case - again, lack of facts. I did call upon your previous posting on the greater likelihood of a currency falling/moving on the Sunday open, and then you purposefully write that you are looking for answers that might be a little obscure? So in other words, when one doesn't know the answer to something they should go make something up that they might like for whatever reason? You then offered up Venus, the sun, and planetary alignment as a possible explanation. In fact, many/some people believe it is to do with lack of liquidity in the market at one of the most poorly participating times of the week. There is also a possibility for purposeful stop sweeping being undertaken out of New Zealand - this has been proven and is known to occur; it can easily occur because of the lack of market participants. There are other qualifying factors as well, such as when does your broker open, and when is it that your view into the market begins on a Sunday, since, some brokers open 5pm EST, others 6pm EST, some 1pm EST and so on. One can call it out of the box thinking, but, if there are other glaring reasons that may be the more likely reasons (not guaranteed, since nothing is guaranteed), then, they should be presented first.

Anyone can say what ever they want. And questioning them or asking them for the reasons is OK too. I questioned you and asked for justification, and with a glaring omission of reasons in your USDJPY posting, drew on your previous justifications from your past few posts.

Interesting rebuttle, and turn. Human nature? Hmm. Sounds a bit heavy. And low personal attacks on my emotional level? Hmm, I didn't do any of that, did I. Aggressive? Me thinks not, but, I did point out some inconsistencies from your previous posting and/or profile. It might be nothing, but, that's how people work: FF is like the Facebook of the fx world - nothing can be hidden.

"...other people know more than me" you wrote. Many people do know more than me. You probably know more than me in many areas, and the opposite is true too. But, it didn't come out in that post IMO. In fact, there was a glaring lack of facts, yet a diametrically opposite high-handed call with a date and price for what many are seeing as a pivotal event in fx history, yet, no explanation on why that was your call. Hmm.

I am in fact humbled by the great array of wonderful traders and the knowledge that this board houses. I learn from them every day. I hope I never stop learning, from whatever form or channel, be it fx, and certainly everything else in life. But, explanations and reasons are helpful in that learning process.


I tried looking, but I guess I failed in finding them. It's just that, after 11 days of being here, a bit more of a track record is expected, before fx level calls down to the penny are something folks will believe or entertain. In fact, I hope you trade it and are completely right, and benefit financially. I hope everyone does, because, as questionable a system as it is, it would be better for everyone in the world to have money and succeed, than having what we have in most of the world today.

Oh, and I might not be Canadian ... I could be German, Swedish ... Canada's a tremendously multicultural country ... in fact, I love Switzerland, but now that they're caving on bank secrecy like a bunch of sissies, well, ... <Just Kidding!>

EDIT: Now I see that you significantly edited your post above and threw in a chart, which I've now seen after responding/posting to something different ... it's late here and I may or may not return ... you're changing the participation rules & balance on the fly a little much here.

There isn't much I can add to Beljevina's post, but I must comment on a couple of points.

Generally speaking, you are correct.....the difference in currency pairs is not a huge difference. However, if you had taken the time to review the price action of all the usd crosses, and all the jpy crosses, you would have noticed that this pair, usd/jpy, behaves much differently than could be reasonably expected during these past weeks. For that reason, this pair cannot be traded as 'just another currency pair' for the time being.

You say you called the top in aud/usd.....a few times now. One sunny day does not a summer make!! Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

If your predictions are indeed correct, time will tell. Even then though, I, and I suspect many others will not pay your posts too much mind until you offer sound technical analysis before the event. Offering specific dates for events, without any technical analysis is not much more than tea leaf reading.....or just plain guessing.

Please show us some sound analysis on which you base these predictions.

can't argue with that statement .

if it is scientific , it will be subjected to rigorous questioning .... need to be rigorously defended with logical reasons .


------------------


on ur AU 1 hr chart , noted this :

1) every 14 hours (+/-1,2 hrs) there was turn downwards .

does it mean that turns happen every 14 (bars) time periods (15min , hr, days, weeks etc) ?

in my view, i saw the chart as performing Elliot Waves

2) why the energy point at that point , any scientific reason ?

3) why ' fast falling fractal ' ... why not ' fast rising fractal ' ?

4) mercury, venus, moon are monthly planets ... conjucntions happens ... u only noted that turns happen only when venus conj sun? did u notice similar turns with other planets ?


5) if u don't use it , why bring it up and distract and confuse newbies and beginners ..

.. like u said , these are cycles : they repeat themselves , just want to know how rigorous this scientific method is ...

i am bit puzzled : where did u see the pin on the weekly ? in fact, it had broken the floor of the downward channel

charts are records of events that had transpired in the past .

therefore being records , they don't lie . we build our expectation on the past records and past patterns and take a calculated risk .

therefore i don't think charts are cheating us or lying to us .