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  • #316,481
  • Edited 1:37pm Oct 30, 2010 1:25pm | Edited 1:37pm
Quoting Articulate
Trading forex is all about knowledge and a deep understanding of the market. What I want to share today is an interesting development on EURUSD concerning the interplay between fundamental and technical analyses. The big players are getting set for a crucial decision on EURUSD just like they did in February 2010.

If you look at the weekly charts, you will observed that for three straight weeks price opened and closed almost at exact points, thus forming three stars. A star on the weekly chart is a sign of expectation, a tug of war between the...
Thanks , tristars there in weekly in both situation but if they not may the same ? anthing possible .
anyway stars are only due indecision to the timebeing ,hasten with more stars but if situation changes on the factors for which it was in that condition , will not any more .likely if usdx itself broken support tl after tl itself ,its pair will not go opposite side due the previous indecision .
fontu
Attached Image
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #316,482
  • Oct 30, 2010 1:26pm Oct 30, 2010 1:26pm
Quoting Honored
That will be my entry if FOMC disappoints. Its worth noting that EU made a high of 1.5144 on Nov 28, 2009, if history repeats, we should see this years high around the same time. i.e. last week of November at around 1.4500 and then the fall.
4160 is key

I am actually still bearish for a retracement unless that is take out.

If 4160 is taken out then U will be long with a 90pip stop for target 1.44 / 1.46

Tons of news items this week. so going to be a crazy one.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #316,483
  • Edited 1:56pm Oct 30, 2010 1:34pm | Edited 1:56pm
MY H1 Fib level drawn and kept for more than two weeks. More woods to chop for bulls and going away the 100 fib level yes 1.4165 and above

Not taking here the 200 pip range but the long term possibility

My post 1139
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  • #316,484
  • Oct 30, 2010 1:57pm Oct 30, 2010 1:57pm
Main trend still remains BULL.

Short term SIDEWAYS and narrowing the range. So this fact starts to making a simetric triangle on the chart (green), and that's only prove indecision by the market and a mount of us making scalp.

To be conservative this triangle should be treated as a consolidation for further rises imo.

I would be not surprised if this week we remain doing range trading inside the triangle.

Anyway my guess would be that we will start the week wiht a small down move continuing the last week movement. After that i do expect a visit to +-1.3980 testing the higher TL of the simetric triangle. (and this is predict to much already)
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So get ready!
  • #316,485
  • Oct 30, 2010 2:46pm Oct 30, 2010 2:46pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=263165
  • #316,486
  • Oct 30, 2010 3:45pm Oct 30, 2010 3:45pm
Quoting harigp
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=263165

trading the news is a fools game BUT using some form of system to see the pros footprints before the news is NOT

the gdp play on friday on eu was an easy play.. I posted it in my vsa before news
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #316,487
  • Oct 30, 2010 4:09pm Oct 30, 2010 4:09pm
Heigher pain always bring with higher opportunities so don't try to avoid pains.....my humble advice
OPPORTUNITY LIES WHERE THE MAJORITY IS AFRAID TO GO....
  • #316,488
  • Oct 30, 2010 4:41pm Oct 30, 2010 4:41pm
Quoting roxen99
Heigher pain always bring with higher opportunities so don't try to avoid pains.....my humble advice
Unless it kills u first.
  • #316,489
  • Oct 30, 2010 4:56pm Oct 30, 2010 4:56pm
Quoting egkid
Everything is possible now , don't u see how PA act in last 2 weeks and end of month and 3 rd November FED News

Any trader should b very very careful all the next week ,Chances will never end there is always better chances than involve in market war next week.
I closed half of my positions lock profit and the rest SL@ BE
Week [email protected] so "I review my plan @ weekend"
Have 2 to things to say
1-Jay
2-Sellers Be Careful
  • #316,490
  • Oct 30, 2010 5:24pm Oct 30, 2010 5:24pm
Quoting malcolmb14
also on the weekly draw a tl on those two major prior highs .. 1.4450 is about where that tl falls
Something else I've noticed. The last time that we have had more than 3 doji or something close to pin bars on the weekly was in March. On the move down. Then it resumed it's downtrend. Could be the same thing again with a massive up move in the makeing. The more I look at the weekly, and coupled with how fundamentals are pushing this up, the less I am thinking of the downward trend resuming this year.
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #316,491
  • Oct 30, 2010 5:50pm Oct 30, 2010 5:50pm
Quoting paul1
Thankyou you are right lol i have read alot but your response is appreciated.

I was more trying to point out with my earlier post that while we dont have access to names and actual sizes traded by these names ,thus giving us a strong indication of who of the big players are ,and showing there hand by the size and direction they are trading.
As is available in stocks .We do have tick volume.

I'd like your opinion on the value of using the only indication we have available which is tick volume.
And more specifically the ability to determine smart...
Hi Paul,

No a tick doesn't show you the volume traded unless everyone where trading the same position size... and never at the same time...

I don't use volume (tick data) in my trading cause by looking at 1M you can see if there is enough movement or if it is gapping (less traders in the mrkt). Or just wait until the bourses are open...

However as I said with the spread, trading for most of us needs to be from looking at the hourly or any other longer time frame because of this spread (catching >50 pips).

1 pip spread might seem small but will kill your long term trading unless your puzzling skills are really good..

I also think you are trying to find the grail with going against retailers, commercial etc... Advice: Don't think to much about it and rather look at the price and past news events... Does it add up to your potential outcome/expectations? Unless you like to trade weekly and look at the COT chart...

I am a big fan of Higher Highs & Lows, this is an indicator which reacts before the close of the bar indicators... I also like to use Heiken Ashi when I zoom in to get a better price, 1M or 5M...

Evey week-end I set up what I am keen on risking the next week, I don't adjust my position size before next week (if you always risk 1-2% you have always max position when taking a loss).

I leave the market when weekly loss is reached...

Some trades I have, like with USD/JPY now I have had a short position for days because the trend is so strong and many companies have adjusted the Yen expectation to around 77.00 and some other funnymentals...

I also believe that if a trader still googles around for solutions after a year they are looking at the wrong place, the solution is in yourself and you only...

Only quit trading if you didn't know what went wrong, when I loose money I always know why it went wrong and is mostly because of the simplest things like patience, revenge trade etc.

If you think about it its quite funny how so many can loose when the price can only go up & down

Many traders have stated that even if the same system has been given to a pro and an amateur the amateur will go into the negative and pro into positive. I find this very interesting and I think it is because the pro is better at dodging the bad trades, same as with poker... If you play only 20% of your hands you are more likely to win but you still need practice...



puh..

Like Henry for said; Even if you think you are right or wrong, you are right...
  • #316,492
  • Oct 30, 2010 6:32pm Oct 30, 2010 6:32pm
Quoting tonyo524
Something else I've noticed. The last time that we have had more than 3 doji or something close to pin bars on the weekly was in March. On the move down. Then it resumed it's downtrend. Could be the same thing again with a massive up move in the makeing. The more I look at the weekly, and coupled with how fundamentals are pushing this up, the less I am thinking of the downward trend resuming this year.
Have to say from my experience dojis aren't as useful as they first appear.
  • #316,493
  • Oct 30, 2010 7:18pm Oct 30, 2010 7:18pm
Quoting tonyo524
Something else I've noticed. The last time that we have had more than 3 doji or something close to pin bars on the weekly was in March. On the move down. Then it resumed it's downtrend. Could be the same thing again with a massive up move in the makeing. The more I look at the weekly, and coupled with how fundamentals are pushing this up, the less I am thinking of the downward trend resuming this year.
I was bearish till I saw this week close. Both eu and gu could break to the upside for 400 to 500 pip ...thru this week I am going to intraday trade the 15 , might take a longer term position next week.

If i see an up day on low vol before fomc i will be selling the eu also.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #316,494
  • Oct 30, 2010 7:20pm Oct 30, 2010 7:20pm
paul

oddly enough my whole style of trading is based on using vsa..... I would say there is alot of merit of looking at the relationship between volume and candle pattern

Quoting paul1
Thankyou you are right lol i have read alot but your response is appreciated.

I was more trying to point out with my earlier post that while we dont have access to names and actual sizes traded by these names ,thus giving us a strong indication of who of the big players are ,and showing there hand by the size and direction they are trading.
As is available in stocks .We do have tick volume.

I'd like your opinion on the value of using the only indication we have available which is tick volume.
And more specifically the ability to determine...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #316,495
  • Oct 30, 2010 7:21pm Oct 30, 2010 7:21pm
I would like to share with you guys some of my several years' experience in Forex. However, as a junior member i can't start a new thread. Therefore, i will post some replies in open threads till i get a full membership.

Since you are talking here about EURUSD, my study shows a strong selling opportunity at the current price (1.3950) targeting 1.3315 and stop loss to be placed at 1.4165.

Risk/Reward ratio: 1:3
Winning probality: 75% according to 6 years of live backtest.

I have also recommendations on other currencies. I will post them in the corresponding threads.. tomorrow maybe.

Good luck.
  • #316,496
  • Oct 30, 2010 7:40pm Oct 30, 2010 7:40pm
Quoting Larseg
Hi Paul,

Yes, compared to stocks the information with volume in Forex is pure tick movement and in your brokers platform also... I am not saying this tick volume is useless and there are profitable traders who uses it...

Paul1

Just making sure you saw this
  • #316,497
  • Oct 30, 2010 8:32pm Oct 30, 2010 8:32pm
Morning everyone,

Friday we have seen unexpected moves..fridays are always like that only with sudden surprises. Expecting some range when market opens and then downside continues.
  • #316,498
  • Oct 30, 2010 9:04pm Oct 30, 2010 9:04pm
Quoting Srikanth
Expecting some range when market opens and then downside continues.
I wouldnt bet on that.
  • #316,499
  • Oct 30, 2010 9:14pm Oct 30, 2010 9:14pm
Quoting T@rantula
I wouldnt bet on that.
At the most it tests 1.4000 level and should come down. we'll see 1.35/36 level
very soon.

Anything above previous top (1.4150) is extreme bullish.
  • #316,500
  • Oct 31, 2010 2:06am Oct 31, 2010 2:06am
I think eur won't go down before it goes up. The top would be around 1.44-1.45.
Here is the monthly charts.
Attached Image
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