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  • #316,461
  • Edited 9:27am Oct 30, 2010 9:10am | Edited 9:27am
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/64067154/ 1.4-1.43 top then pairity apparently
  • #316,462
  • Oct 30, 2010 9:17am Oct 30, 2010 9:17am
Quoting fontu
Ok ,you are so brave , price close just above 3918 should be enough for 4015 journey & hope there will some one to pick it after the ranging to 1.5144 - 1.5944 movement as per last week analysis with the diamond failure , though still not , 4015 break should start confirm & 4080 2nd & 4157 final. before the final no bull to come in the scene.usdx may or should break the tl at 77.14 ok too yet 77.06 there in support if fail last tl 76.06 /75.97 ( now 76.15 though ) and even that also fail then last option the bottom may hold yet 74.14 before deep...
Price closed at 39457 on my Alpari platform. This C leg will look best if goes to 4010/15. I think that should complete the rise for now and I'm short from there as I'm more bearish than ever. Due to the Nov 3 volatility, depending on the price level we have that day, we could in fact see a fakeout above, but then to resume the final selloff. Anyway, prepared for the worst and playing thereafter with proper mm.

Enjoy your weekend
  • #316,463
  • Oct 30, 2010 9:22am Oct 30, 2010 9:22am
Quoting Torch
I think eur could go like this next week, looks like a triangle in 4H chart
What do you guys think?
symetrical triangle which can break either way, it is more bullish tho i think as its formed from an up trend, need to have flat top for it to be all bull.
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  • #316,464
  • Oct 30, 2010 9:57am Oct 30, 2010 9:57am
Quoting Wgold2
symetrical triangle which can break either way, it is more bullish tho i think as its formed from an up trend, need to have flat top for it to be all bull.

It's more descending than ascending, In my opinion a very bearish formation with underlying lt downsloping RSI on H4 and now macd is showing clear bearish divergence also on the Daily chart. We could of course peak to a new high, noone knows so I'm holding all possibillities open, but I'm very bearish atm.

Check out this chart, it says it all with volumes peaking at extremes, while the upmove retraces is far lower. Turning a trend is a long process...


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  • #316,465
  • Oct 30, 2010 10:35am Oct 30, 2010 10:35am
i said it was symetrical not ascending, which I read can break either way, I was just saying to previous poster who had arrow pointing up that it would need to look like the ascending one I posted to be bullish.

I could have been clearer i know
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  • #316,466
  • Edited 11:21am Oct 30, 2010 11:07am | Edited 11:21am
Quoting Larseg
Hi Paul,

Yes, compared to stocks the information with volume in Forex is pure tick movement and in your brokers platform also... I am not saying this tick volume is useless and there are profitable traders who uses it...

Its important that you understand what actually happens when you execute a trade and who determines the price. This is quite different from with stocks, first of all you have the inter-bank market which is securities and commercials.. the trading that happens here happens so quickly that we won't even see it... (false reading...
Thankyou you are right lol i have read alot but your response is appreciated.

I was more trying to point out with my earlier post that while we dont have access to names and actual sizes traded by these names ,thus giving us a strong indication of who of the big players are ,and showing there hand by the size and direction they are trading.
As is available in stocks .We do have tick volume.

I'd like your opinion on the value of using the only indication we have available which is tick volume.
And more specifically the ability to determine smart money(informed money) to us the uninformed traders (retail).
Do you think using specific tick size periods(candles).as opposed to time based periods.
And using volume to interpret the size that these ticks(trades) traded at ,
helps us to determine whether its retail versus commercial traders.

Do you believe if we can then interpret the commercial money direction from this it gives us more of an edge than pure price action.?

Or do you believe time based candles using no volume is of more use in your opinion?

Can i ask ,you say tick volume is pure tick movement .I interpret this to mean you say the volumes represent the amount of price movement is this correct.?
My interpretation was tick volume was the size traded during the tick period eg:233ticks =233 trades @ $500,000,000 volume would mean during 233 trades $2,146,000 volume on average were traded per tick.
Obviously not as good or accurate as stocks but its all we got.
So if only 200 million was traded we could assume retail traders. if 1 billion traded during 233 ticks/trades ,then we could assume some commercial interest.

My broker mbtrading deals with a large amount of major banks so the volume should be fairly representative of the overall market, so should be as good as we can expect for our purposes.

Thanks and your response and opinion is greatly appreciated.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #316,467
  • Oct 30, 2010 11:17am Oct 30, 2010 11:17am
wrong or not, i will follow my plan, even that John Taylor telling we are going up before down.
We should follow what we see and not what a tv guest say.
This is the way to learn...
I believe 90% commerzbank. and who follow Commerzbank recomendations know they are right at least 80% of times.

my conclusion is on below charts...

1.4010 area we have several intersting points. FE 100%, 138% retracement, trend line coming down, clear wave C and 80% retracement of last big move down.
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  • #316,468
  • Oct 30, 2010 11:27am Oct 30, 2010 11:27am
Articulate

Interesting summary and study
  • #316,469
  • Edited 11:54am Oct 30, 2010 11:39am | Edited 11:54am
Quoting enterfx
Price closed at 39457 on my Alpari platform. This C leg will look best if goes to 4010/15. I think that should complete the rise for now and I'm short from there as I'm more bearish than ever. Due to the Nov 3 volatility, depending on the price level we have that day, we could in fact see a fakeout above, but then to resume the final selloff. Anyway, prepared for the worst and playing thereafter with proper mm.

Enjoy your weekend
Yes , true , the conception well fit to me but as we still in gator's mofu anything can happen & nothing may work as per . expecting disaster this week or next .
Just search out my messy brain chart , tracing moves there .sorry for the nasty chart beforehand.

It is quite unneccessary as interruption weekend price may go anywhere still pa at the opening of the market , gapping included if any already as such :
usdx actually broken tl it was at 77.13 broken to the next strong support before 77.04 , actual low 77.03 now 77.04 as checked usdx charts online , so likely it will bounce minimum to 77.13 with eu to retest also 3921 before up all providing market condition pre close one .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #316,470
  • Oct 30, 2010 12:00pm Oct 30, 2010 12:00pm
Quoting forexpt
wrong or not, i will follow my plan, even that John Taylor telling we are going up before down.
We should follow what we see and not what a tv guest say.
This is the way to learn...
I believe 90% commerzbank. and who follow Commerzbank recomendations know they are right at least 80% of times.

my conclusion is on below charts...

1.4010 area we have several intersting points. FE 100%, 138% retracement, trend line coming down, clear wave C and 80% retracement of last big move down.

completely agree. Will have pending sells at 4010 and 15. Very clear elliot wave patterns going on now, also indicating a top is in place.
  • #316,471
  • Oct 30, 2010 12:15pm Oct 30, 2010 12:15pm
Quoting enterfx
completely agree. Will have pending sells at 4010 and 15. Very clear elliot wave patterns going on now, also indicating a top is in place.
Not too sure about that. I would be leary about shorting right before FOMC. Here is a chart I posted couple of weeks ago. It shows the 50% of the move from 1.6 to 1.18 notice how long we stayed in that area. And to Geppy you now see the importance of that level I suppose.
61.8 tends to be a magnet sometimes, and we were halfway to it on the monthly. i wouldn't be surprised if we touched this at 1.44 before making the final move south to break new lows.
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All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #316,472
  • Oct 30, 2010 12:20pm Oct 30, 2010 12:20pm
Its being 3 weeks almost market is waiting for direction.. Holed by 200 SMA The bias is bullish.. CCI shows nice and very strong bullish setup.......... Lot of action coming this week ..... time to be very careful if we really dont know how to handle those big fundies.......
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  • #316,473
  • Oct 30, 2010 12:23pm Oct 30, 2010 12:23pm
Quoting fontu
Yes , true , the conception well fit to me but as we still in gator's mofu anything can happen & nothing may work as per . expecting disaster this week or next .
Just search out my messy brain chart , tracing moves there .sorry for the nasty chart beforehand.

It is quite unneccessary as interruption weekend price may go anywhere still pa at the opening of the market , gapping included if any already as such :
usdx actually broken tl it was at 77.13 broken to the next strong support before 77.04 , actual low 77.03 now 77.04 as checked usdx charts...
This is the most funny chart ever. ahaha
with respect. it's funny
  • #316,474
  • Oct 30, 2010 12:44pm Oct 30, 2010 12:44pm
Quoting Articulate
Trading forex is all about knowledge and a deep understanding of the market. What I want to share today is an interesting development on EURUSD concerning the interplay between fundamental and technical analyses. The big players are getting set for a crucial decision on EURUSD just like they did in February 2010.
Yeah. Something's gonna happen.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #316,475
  • Oct 30, 2010 12:52pm Oct 30, 2010 12:52pm
I go for more bear based on H4 CHART

Falling RSI

One more hit which is the third at the top level and fall.
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  • #316,476
  • Oct 30, 2010 12:58pm Oct 30, 2010 12:58pm
Quoting tonyo524
Not too sure about that. I would be leary about shorting right before FOMC. Here is a chart I posted couple of weeks ago. It shows the 50% of the move from 1.6 to 1.18 notice how long we stayed in that area. And to Geppy you now see the importance of that level I suppose.
61.8 tends to be a magnet sometimes, and we were halfway to it on the monthly. i wouldn't be surprised if we touched this at 1.44 before making the final move south to break new lows.

also on the weekly draw a tl on those two major prior highs .. 1.4450 is about where that tl falls
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #316,477
  • Oct 30, 2010 1:04pm Oct 30, 2010 1:04pm
Quoting malcolmb14
also on the weekly draw a tl on those two major prior highs .. 1.4450 is about where that tl falls
That will be my entry if FOMC disappoints. Its worth noting that EU made a high of 1.5144 on Nov 28, 2009, if history repeats, we should see this years high around the same time. i.e. last week of November at around 1.4500 and then the fall.
  • #316,478
  • Oct 30, 2010 1:10pm Oct 30, 2010 1:10pm
Quoting harigp
I go for more bear based on H4 CHART

Falling RSI

One more hit which is the third at the top level and fall.
The only problem i see here is that the high EU can go is 1.4010 and the low 1.3810 ,so only a 200 pip range for Mon, Tue and Wed ???

The FOMC stmt comes out late wed. night for EU, so thats 3 full days of trading for EU. Not sure if the PA will be happy for 3 days with that short range of 200 pips
  • #316,479
  • Oct 30, 2010 1:12pm Oct 30, 2010 1:12pm
Quoting Honored
That will be my entry if FOMC disappoints. Its worth noting that EU made a high of 1.5144 on Nov 28, 2009, if history repeats, we should see this years high around the same time. i.e. last week of November at around 1.4500 and then the fall.
On October 29, 2010 the E/U rate closed at 1.4716. Yesterday, 10/29/10, it closed at 1.3947.

So, history does not repeat.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #316,480
  • Oct 30, 2010 1:19pm Oct 30, 2010 1:19pm
Quoting The Fool
On October 29, 2010 the E/U rate closed at 1.4716. Yesterday, 10/29/10, it closed at 1.3947.

So, history does not repeat.
I am talking about the yearly high, the top of the mountain, to go short. not the monthly high.
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