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  • #316,441
  • Edited 3:16am Oct 30, 2010 2:48am | Edited 3:16am
Quoting mercy seat
European Forex Technicals: USD/JPY Back Near Key 80 Support
29 Oct 2010, 08:30

By Francis Bray

A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
LONDON (Dow Jones)




Intraday EUR/USD: remains choppy, but still within the confines of a bull-flag correction following Friday's cap...


http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/pdf.gif



Wochenende ... Chicago hat am späten Freitagabend die Hütte dicht gemacht ... das hier sind die letzten echten Bank-Quoten (!) ... damit findet auch kein Handel zu den Bedingungen des Interbankmarktes mehr statt ... die ersten echten Interbank Kurse sind erst wieder am Sonntag erhältlich ... wenn Filialbanken und Interbankstützpunkte in Wellington den Tresen aufmachen ...

Kursstellungen am Wochenende ausserhalb dieser Bedingungen ... wie einige Internet-Online-Klitschen diese indikativ zur Verfügung stellen mögen ... sind inzestuös und schlichtweg Kindergarten oder Pillepalle ... und werden statistisch nicht erfasst und auch gar nicht beachtet ...

In other words ... the market is closed (!) when Chicago has had its latest Bank Rates ... then it is closing time (!) and it will re-open again when real Bank and Interbank Institutions will open up in Wellington ...

GAPS :

They are very rare in major currencies and pairs like EUR/USD ... and the real market has seen only one gap within this year 2010 until now ... this has been Sunday, April 11, 2010 ...

Jawohl ... so isses eben


Have a nice week-end and some good ideas ... wünsche ein schönes Wochenende und weiterhin gute Eingebungen

mercy
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 2010-10-29_22h50_Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates (Clôture 43).pdf   10 KB | 330 downloads
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #316,442
  • Oct 30, 2010 3:00am Oct 30, 2010 3:00am
Quoting fluiDynamic
Larseg, not to fear! - a trader with much less posts (me) found your response informative & entertaining..

Thanks!

Hehe, thanks mate
  • #316,443
  • Oct 30, 2010 3:32am Oct 30, 2010 3:32am
Quoting Honored
A bearish gartley is forming on the Hourly chart. Price should go up to 1.4007 and bounce off the utl and go down monday, Tuesday should be tight range ahead of Wednesday's big news.

Also, a diamond topping formation is being formed on h4. price should break the diamond at 1.3837 following the FOMC statement.
GL!
Hi,
thank you for pointing that one out. That would fit extremely with my Elliott Wave Counts and my strategy.
Hope you have a nice weekend.
Markus
  • #316,444
  • Oct 30, 2010 3:40am Oct 30, 2010 3:40am
Quoting gatorinla
3946.5 still important
I hope everyone is enjoying their Saturday.

Just cogitating and hypothesising, if it were to gap down Sunday night, then we have a possible lower double top formation, or lower equal high, which is a very bearish pattern and is a lot more powerful than a regular double top.

This level is also the 62% retrace of the last major down swing.

All ifs, buts and maybes at this stage and of course there is also a possibility of a gap up for these very same reasons.

Looking forward to what is shaping up to be a very interesting week...
  • #316,445
  • Oct 30, 2010 3:52am Oct 30, 2010 3:52am
Quoting Larseg
Hi Paul,

Yes, compared to stocks the information with volume in Forex is pure tick movement and in your brokers platform also... I am not saying this tick volume is useless and there are profitable traders who uses it...

Its important that you understand what actually happens when you execute a trade and who determines the price. This is quite different from with stocks, first of all you have the inter-bank market which is securities and commercials.. the trading that happens here happens so quickly that we won't even see it... (false reading...
Hi Larseg,
very informative and important posting, especially for the newbies here. You are very right. Especially the section regarding commission and money amount in trading depot. High leverage in under-funded depot will kill you soon. It is better to stay on demo account and safe enough money for your trading account than to fund it with only 1 or 2 thousand USD and trade on high leverage like 50, 100 or 400 (insane).

Best to you,

Markus
  • #316,446
  • Oct 30, 2010 4:17am Oct 30, 2010 4:17am
I would just say that we should not forget the past so quickly. Before the euro back to 1.40 about all banks saw it drop below 1.20. so I think it will fall to 1.35-1.33 before going higher. So I think you gonna be surprised next week. But hey of course I could be wrong.
  • #316,447
  • Edited 6:26am Oct 30, 2010 4:37am | Edited 6:26am
Quoting FibbinArchie
I hope everyone is enjoying their Saturday.

Just cogitating and hypothesising, if it were to gap down Sunday night, then we have a possible lower double top formation, or lower equal high, which is a very bearish pattern and is a lot more powerful than a regular double top.

This level is also the 62% retrace of the last major down swing.

All ifs, buts and maybes at this stage and of course there is also a possibility of a gap up for these very same reasons.

Looking forward to what is shaping up to be a very interesting week...
Correction, having looked on the 1 hr time frame this would actually be a triple equal high...

However I'd just like to add, the fact that we've closed right at the level and the fact that this is the third test, to me is indicative of an impending breach, "third time's a charm..."
  • #316,448
  • Oct 30, 2010 5:15am Oct 30, 2010 5:15am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Larseg,
very informative and important posting, especially for the newbies here. You are very right. Especially the section regarding commission and money amount in trading depot. High leverage in under-funded depot will kill you soon. It is better to stay on demo account and safe enough money for your trading account than to fund it with only 1 or 2 thousand USD and trade on high leverage like 50, 100 or 400 (insane).

Best to you,

Markus
Hi M,

True mate, very true...
Its just pure math skills
  • #316,449
  • Edited 5:44am Oct 30, 2010 5:32am | Edited 5:44am
Quoting Larseg
Hi M,

True mate, very true...
Its just pure math skills
Maybe blowing out a small account is an important lesson in money management and a valuable part of the trading journey.

I'm sure it's something many can relate to and in some cases the account was not so small.

Just cut your cloth according to your means, it's all scalable, if you have a small account just trade small quantities of mini-lots.

If anything trading is not a get rich quick scheme, it is a long and arduous journey. Consistent profitability can take years and thousands of hours of screen time to achieve, the actual length of time it takes will vary from person to person.

Just my 2 cents...

Inserted Video
  • #316,450
  • Oct 30, 2010 6:26am Oct 30, 2010 6:26am
Quoting mfoste1
i dont get why theyre trying to start a physical war? It may be because no one trades with them and the state has squandered all of its capital to pay for weapons and such,which i might add are still far inferior to major world powers militaries. So since they cant do it any other way theyre trying to take power by force? LOL......china would smash them into oblivion with one fell swoop. N korea trying to be a bully, but they might step on the wrong toes soon of a bigger bully. Theyre pissing other bigger bullies off, why? I have no freaking clue.....They...
shit happens then you die. maybe it aint all we see or hear. maybe its the string pullers that said shoot. maybe the are not as bullyish to them, as we are lead to believe. maybe the bullies want a little leverage to show the kids at the playground they are tougher. after all who supplies them with weapons? follow the money.. as in any sport watching from the sidelines is safe. Niki builds the shoes and sells to both teams. the string pullers make a good living selling polyester coats to sheep. now get back in line before they see us talking.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #316,451
  • Oct 30, 2010 6:28am Oct 30, 2010 6:28am
Quoting gatorinla
shit happens then you die. maybe it aint all we see or hear. maybe its the string pullers that said shoot. maybe the are not as bullyish to them, as we are lead to believe. maybe the bullies want a little leverage to show the kids at the playground they are tougher. after all who supplies them with weapons? follow the money.. as in any sport watching from the sidelines is safe. Niki builds the shoes and sells to both teams. the string pullers make a good living selling polyester coats to sheep. now get back in line before they see us talking.
Same old, same old...
  • #316,452
  • Oct 30, 2010 6:31am Oct 30, 2010 6:31am
Quoting willkohsg
Hi Gator u mean 3977 is resistance n u have pending short order there?
yes
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #316,453
  • Oct 30, 2010 6:38am Oct 30, 2010 6:38am
4006 above 3977?
  • #316,454
  • Oct 30, 2010 7:13am Oct 30, 2010 7:13am
Inserted Video
  • #316,455
  • Oct 30, 2010 8:00am Oct 30, 2010 8:00am
Quoting FibbinArchie
I hope everyone is enjoying their Saturday.

Just cogitating and hypothesising, if it were to gap down Sunday night, then we have a possible lower double top formation, or lower equal high, which is a very bearish pattern and is a lot more powerful than a regular double top.

This level is also the 62% retrace of the last major down swing.

All ifs, buts and maybes at this stage and of course there is also a possibility of a gap up for these very same reasons.

Looking forward to what is shaping up to be a very interesting week...
yes and if we don't touch 400x. it would be a hard sell. a last gasp type sell with a long wick like in 2008. we will just have to see. those black boxes seem to respect rhythm...
had i plotted the move with math 3942.3 would of been target # 2. knowing what i know about 3946.5 (now 3946.8 3957.2) i would of said we stop here and retrace some at least. because of normal pa.. not to mention murry says it too. i still don't know how murry works but we come close often. when we do i give the level more odds. target #3 using math alone is 4038.4... red chart from Thursday's level with a lower mofu at 40055. 3999 is a rhythm # that the low 4000 would be in spec with.. 4008 is another rhythm number that agrees with fonto... mapa says we are over extended a normal move above 2960 ish... 3957.2 is another possibility (mofu mid).. we are in a big mofo from 3702.9 till 4202.7 it will break many accounts. we made it out once a few weeks back.. but it sucked us back in. and it will spit us out..you don't cross them w/o momentum..it takes a long candle. to break the suction. we will c..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #316,456
  • Oct 30, 2010 8:13am Oct 30, 2010 8:13am
Quoting FibbinArchie
4006 above 3977?
closing at the high many times means gap up.. at open

later..
back after the game Sunday if i survive Bourbon St. I got an ass whipping with my name on it. But if New Orleans beats Pittsburgh then its just a spanken with a feather dusting.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #316,457
  • Oct 30, 2010 8:34am Oct 30, 2010 8:34am
Quoting gatorinla
closing at the high many times means gap up.. at open

later..
back after the game Sunday if i survive Bourbon St. I got an ass whipping with my name on it. But if New Orleans beats Pittsburgh then its just a spanken with a feather dusting.
Watching my local side this avo, Wycombe Wanderers FC league match against Lincoln Town FC, got relegated last season to division 2, currently near the top of the table and looking OK, but early days in the season.

Enjoy the the game...

Later...
  • #316,458
  • Oct 30, 2010 9:00am Oct 30, 2010 9:00am
Quoting gatorinla
closing at the high many times means gap up.. at open

later..
back after the game Sunday if i survive Bourbon St. I got an ass whipping with my name on it. But if New Orleans beats Pittsburgh then its just a spanken with a feather dusting.
will there be reason for a gap? i wonder. something weird i found is at the lat few moments before market ended on fri, GU went down while EU went up... yes i do wonder how sun/mon open will be like
  • #316,459
  • Oct 30, 2010 9:07am Oct 30, 2010 9:07am
Trading forex is all about knowledge and a deep understanding of the market. What I want to share today is an interesting development on EURUSD concerning the interplay between fundamental and technical analyses. The big players are getting set for a crucial decision on EURUSD just like they did in February 2010.

If you look at the weekly charts, you will observed that for three straight weeks price opened and closed almost at exact points, thus forming three stars. A star on the weekly chart is a sign of expectation, a tug of war between the big players. Where you have three stars, is an indication that something very big is about to happen. What is about to happen? We may not know it, but a review of the past will give us an indication.

Now, let us look at the past. If you look carefully at the weekly chart, you will notice a similar three stars in February this year. That was the period when there was serious concern about the economy of EU countries. Specifically, the debt situation in Greece and other EU countries. At that period the technical analysis on the daily, weekly indicated that the price had reached the bottom and was ready for a reverse from around 1.35000 after falling a by over 1,000 pips from 1.51000. The To the surprise of most traders, the fear about the economic conditions of most European countries, represented by fundamental analyis carried the day. EURUSD fell to its lowest point at 1.18757 which was an additional 1545 thus making a total of about 3224 pips from its highest point in November 2009.

Now,to the present the weekly and daily clearly RIS indicate that EURUSD that around 1.40000 is the peak and that the pair is due for a reverse. However, there is fear about the state of the US economy, the apparent failure of the economic stimulus package, possible weakening of Democrats by the mid-term elections, the price of gold etc. These fears are indicated by the three weekly stars and the Euro appears a better alternative to the big players. In the light of this, the big players are most likely ready to push the pair up to 1.60000 but a trip back is to 1.18757 is not impossible. The decision is theirs. The best option for a retail trader is to follow them. We are currently at a cross-road.

The monthly RSI indicates that the price is the middle of the monthly RSI, just like it showed in February 2010. A break out of the blue box will show us the decisions of the big boys. As usual a weekly candle below or above is a signal. This is the big picture. Relevant charts are attached.

For daily players, the blue box (1.37000 - 1.41000) is our playground for now, follow the daily candle for direction, H4 for trade signals and M15 for entries.


Attached Thumbnailshttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1288446844 http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1288446844 http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1288446884 http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1288446884



http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1288446907
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 555 - eurusd monthly - c4.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #316,460
  • Oct 30, 2010 9:09am Oct 30, 2010 9:09am
I think eur could go like this next week, looks like a triangle in 4H chart
What do you guys think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 29 KB
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