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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #20,861
  • Oct 29, 2010 10:46am Oct 29, 2010 10:46am
Quoting honeybhi
Bounce or break ??????

I feel a bounce is more logical here.

Lets see what we got next week.
Nice graph, bounce would be welcomed. Maybe a small bounce with continuation of downtrend later, who knows.
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #20,862
  • Oct 29, 2010 10:48am Oct 29, 2010 10:48am
Quoting honeybhi
Bounce or break ??????

I feel a bounce is more logical here.

Lets see what we got next week.

Did you look monthly chart?...It doesn't seam yet that there is a bottom...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #20,863
  • Oct 29, 2010 11:38am Oct 29, 2010 11:38am
Naoto wants to make another record.....
he will be the first PM who can take yen to the level same as world war II.... maybe more :
  • #20,864
  • Oct 29, 2010 12:10pm Oct 29, 2010 12:10pm
Quoting Hugo Boss
Naoto wants to make another record.....
he will be the first PM who can take yen to the level same as world war II.... maybe more :

UJ was 1/360 until 1973 when the floating exchange rate was introduced to Yen.... What a good old era for JP...
  • #20,865
  • Oct 29, 2010 12:21pm Oct 29, 2010 12:21pm
The market does not forget.
We are close to the double bottom.
monthly chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #20,866
  • Oct 29, 2010 4:12pm Oct 29, 2010 4:12pm
We've been treated to a photo finish for the UJ close this week: a new low right at the 5pm close, beating out Monday's close, and is approaching the 15-year 79.750.

Interesting how everything is aligning into next week ... there will be fireworks for all ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ 80.367 2010 Fri Oct29-10 Low.png Size: 50 KB
  • #20,867
  • Oct 29, 2010 4:31pm Oct 29, 2010 4:31pm
Quoting Beljevina
We've been treated to a photo finish for the UJ close this week: a new low right at the 5pm close, beating out Monday's close, and is approaching the 15-year 79.750.

Interesting how everything is aligning into next week ... there will be fireworks for all ...
In my opinion we are close to bullish rally. Maybe closer than we think. Important fundamentals + this pair is undersold so just wait for a big players to buy if US data good will be very happy to see some rally.
  • #20,868
  • Oct 29, 2010 7:00pm Oct 29, 2010 7:00pm
Take a look at this:

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/open-position-ratios

Notice which pair has the largest long/short ratio of all?
  • #20,869
  • Oct 29, 2010 7:03pm Oct 29, 2010 7:03pm
I, like everybody else, want to see a big bull curve in UJ. However, I rather predict UJ would go down to 78.00 next week because of QE2 and JP's no-take-action , namely massive intervention.

I don't think JP dare to intervene because (1) Obama is coming to JP 11/13 and (2) EU's resolution on no currency war.

So, do I want go to short? Nah... I would go long at 80.00, then 79.00 if it comes down to that point. UJ will eventually go up in a couple of months...
  • #20,870
  • Oct 29, 2010 8:50pm Oct 29, 2010 8:50pm
Quoting georgem
In what sense? Are you a billionaire, sir?
In the sense of junior trader that see how seniors trade in this kind of situation, it's an expensive experience and its a rare timing.
@forexgogo: i also think the smae thing this pair is absolutely break the 80.00 and it goes to 79.xx or perhaps 78.xx then the next level is depend on how the japan will react and also US policies.
  • #20,871
  • Oct 29, 2010 9:53pm Oct 29, 2010 9:53pm
1976
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #20,872
  • Oct 29, 2010 10:19pm Oct 29, 2010 10:19pm
Quoting Subdude
Take a look at this:

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/open-position-ratios

Notice which pair has the largest long/short ratio of all?
That's not a good sign for my recently opened long position...
  • #20,873
  • Oct 29, 2010 11:48pm Oct 29, 2010 11:48pm
Quoting panguFX
1976
care to share what's so funny ?
  • #20,874
  • Oct 29, 2010 11:51pm Oct 29, 2010 11:51pm
Quoting Subdude
Take a look at this:

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/open-position-ratios

Notice which pair has the largest long/short ratio of all?
is this ratio study of only real live trading or inclusive of demo trading sentiments ?
  • #20,875
  • Oct 30, 2010 12:28am Oct 30, 2010 12:28am
Quoting kandarv
That's not a good sign for my recently opened long position...
why do u say that if u are long ... ?

(unless this is a contrarian indicator ? )
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #20,876
  • Oct 30, 2010 3:40am Oct 30, 2010 3:40am
Quoting TheArcher
why do u say that if u are long ... ?

(unless this is a contrarian indicator ? )
Hoy!

Saw it this morning, doesn't really say much though... But indeed interesting

read from right to left...

<----- Read chart that way for COT
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  • #20,877
  • Oct 30, 2010 4:10am Oct 30, 2010 4:10am
10-6-10 (UJ 83):
Quoting mima
Intervention? How long will last if it happen? BOJ cannot chalange the market. Until market decide to go up there is no intervention that will help.

It seams that traders are getting...Down side has no limits....
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #20,878
  • Oct 30, 2010 6:43am Oct 30, 2010 6:43am
Quoting mima
10-6-10 (UJ 83):



It seams that traders are getting...Down side has no limits....
You are right. Too many bears are just too strong but seems that bears are getting out of power. Anyways here is my opinion about this one.

http://hosting11.imagecross.com/imag...4/9628graf.gif
  • #20,879
  • Oct 30, 2010 7:05am Oct 30, 2010 7:05am
Cant wait to see some bullish rally :-) Seems we are close ....
Attached Image
  • #20,880
  • Oct 30, 2010 8:21am Oct 30, 2010 8:21am
Quoting Forexgogo
I, like everybody else, want to see a big bull curve in UJ. However, I rather predict UJ would go down to 78.00 next week because of QE2 and JP's no-take-action , namely massive intervention.

I don't think JP dare to intervene because (1) Obama is coming to JP 11/13 and (2) EU's resolution on no currency war.

So, do I want go to short? Nah... I would go long at 80.00, then 79.00 if it comes down to that point. UJ will eventually go up in a couple of months...

I myself have this strong strong LONG BIAS for USDJPY since it was 100s, in the mid 90s, then in the low 90s, then in the high 80s then in the low 80s....

I went long on this pair netting big losses after losses thinking it WILL, it SHOULD, and then "WHY IN HELL IT WONT" go up.

Japan have too much USD at hand and are disposing of it for "domestic use". I even wonder if it would sink even hard the next few weeks since year ends are marked internationally as a season of "domestic holiday spending". Japan have 2 "year end" seasons though.. so which one is the question.
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