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Unimportant fellow's equally unimportant journal v2.0

  • #81
  • Oct 26, 2010 1:53am Oct 26, 2010 1:53am
Quoting mizuno
In other words, the price that you see in your MT4 on the charts is always bid(sell) price. The effect gets more pronounced on pairs with wider spreads, like I illustrated the USD/NOK example in the linked post. My argument is that no matter what the Sell/Buy spread is, if you take Sell+Buy and divide it by two, you will always get the middle point, no matter what the broker will be. And each broker will have different spreads, thus all MT4 charts on different brokers will differ slightly. Attachment
Thanks for that Mizuno, I didn't realise this issue could be so potentially difficult, especially when dealing with TLs which need accuracy. Luckily my current broker has fixed spreads, so I don't need to worry about spread widening, etc. Although the downside to this is spreads on some pairs are a joke and basically untradeable for me

As for cable, looks like I got that very wrong, that upper TL is now broken and it looks like the div will be reached. Just goes to show that an open mind is always needed, as PA is king. For me the triangle failed to complete, I'm sure it has to have at least 3 touches on each side for it to be valid. Missed the break anyway, a bit too early in the morning for me, but otherwise a lovely 20.6. Hope you're still in the game buddy

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable triangle.1.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #82
  • Oct 26, 2010 7:44am Oct 26, 2010 7:44am
Quoting niteshift02
Thanks for that Mizuno, I didn't realise this issue could be so potentially difficult, especially when dealing with TLs which need accuracy. Luckily my current broker has fixed spreads, so I don't need to worry about spread widening, etc. Although the downside to this is spreads on some pairs are a joke and basically untradeable for me

As for cable, looks like I got that very wrong, that upper TL is now broken and it looks like the div will be reached. Just goes to show that an open mind is always needed, as PA is king. For me the triangle...
Some MT4 brokers have non tradeable currency pairs with the names like EURUSD_avg, where only the middle point of sell+buy prices is recorded.
My GBP/USD trade is my first trade that reached it's target based on a divergence. I remember Belekas telling me a while ago, that once I start looking at divergences I'll never look at trading the same, or something along those lines. Until then I never bothered to learn how divergences look like, even though it was as easy as pissing on yourself on a windy day.

Looks like that was a really nice break of the trendline that you initially suggested.
Also there was an "almost" divergence on H3 which offered a slightly better target for my trade. "Almost" because the second high of the price is slightly above the first high, thus it is not within the rules, but it looks nearly good enough.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD buy TP + H3 filled divergence H3 26102010.PNG Size: 122 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD buy TP M30 26102010.PNG Size: 102 KB
  • #83
  • Oct 26, 2010 10:00am Oct 26, 2010 10:00am
AUD/CAD has a fully formed wedge. It also has a divergence on H3 pointing to 0.9983 which I'm using as my TP.
Two trades with split risk: Sell at 1.00729, SL1 - 1.009, SL2- 1.0105. The SL's are not outside the day's range. Because of the two split trades a reverse is harder to plan. The trade is against the trend but the divergence should take care of that one. Plus there's the green TL that has three touches, and we know what Igrok says about TL's with three touches.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCAD wedge + divergence H3 26102010.PNG Size: 106 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCAD wedge sell + divergence H1 26102010.PNG Size: 108 KB


Edit: Trade was established a few seconds ago.
  • #84
  • Oct 26, 2010 10:08am Oct 26, 2010 10:08am
Beautiful development with AUD/JPY. The bottom border of a possible wedge has fully formed. Does this mean that as we observed the third touch we can enter and place a stop below the low and we're good to go? I don't know the answer to that yet and I'm posting this for the record only. Let's find out together.
One thing I can tell for sure is that I won't be trading the third approach of the top border. I'd rather trade the bottom border's break after the formation is fully formed. And fully formed means having at least three touches on the bottom border and same with the top border, and with moves in the correct alternating up-down-up-down sequence. I'm not seeing any divergences to be filled, so TP would have to be based on the size of the formation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY wedge just watching H1 26102010.PNG Size: 102 KB
  • #85
  • Edited 2:37pm Oct 26, 2010 10:43am | Edited 2:37pm
Here's the thing with EUR/USD. The bottom border(yellow) of the right side of the possible diamond is almost symmetrical to the top border of the left side, if I connect the TL to the low of Sept 28 as shown in the chart, AND the bottom border of the left side is almost symmetrical with the top border of the right side. So we have some nice symmetry there. One thing I dislike is that the price is diverging quite a bit on H3, though the trade will be with the trend. Not going to reverse if stopped out.
Entry at 1.381, stop at 1.3785, 25 pips which is 17% of 42ADR. Not too bad. TP will be top of the border. I will have to trail my order with the line and I will update as I do so.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD diamond forming D1 26102010.PNG Size: 130 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD diamond forming H3 26102010.PNG Size: 119 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD diamond forming H1 26102010.PNG Size: 110 KB


We also might be having a channel forming if we look at the bottom border of the left side and top border of the right side of the diamond, the lines are almost perfectly symmetrical.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD also could be a channel H3 26102010.PNG Size: 103 KB


Edit: I'm moving my order to 1.3815, and stop to 1.379 (shifted by 5 pips upwards)
  • #86
  • Edited Oct 27, 2010 2:56am Oct 26, 2010 7:31pm | Edited Oct 27, 2010 2:56am
My AUD/CAD trades hit their SL's. My mistake was to trade this pattern while it had incorrect move sequence. Also this split risk thing made it harder to reverse, I should consider it's application more carefully next time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCAD wedge incorrect sequence H3 27102010.PNG Size: 109 KB



Also since Andre mentioned a possible intramonth 18.4 on USDNOK at Igrok's thread, I saw a picture that I liked. I do not trade this pair as the spread is too high for my taste, posting this so that I could later see if my idea was right. I would enter at the 5.895 level, where the formation might have a symmetry reverse. This would be high risk though, as the formation is not formed yet and it is risky to call such a shot so early. Just like my EUR/USD buy order. The main diagonal is pointing upwards so if this will be a diamond then we should see it breaking downards.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDNOK unformed diamond H3 27102010.PNG Size: 112 KB
  • #87
  • Oct 27, 2010 3:02am Oct 27, 2010 3:02am
Quoting mizuno
Here's the thing with EUR/USD. The bottom border(yellow) of the right side of the possible diamond is almost symmetrical to the top border of the left side, if I connect the TL to the low of Sept 28 as shown in the chart, AND the bottom border of the left side is almost symmetrical with the top border of the right side....
Was stopped out on my EUR/USD buy. This is what I get for trading such formations this early. Still think that this has chances to become a diamond. One of the possible scenarios is this.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD diamond forming buy stopped out M30 27102010.PNG Size: 108 KB


As for my AUD/CAD trade, well, there it goes. The spread difference stopped out my second sell, at the very local high.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCAD wedge sell stopped out goes without me M30 27102010.PNG Size: 115 KB
  • #88
  • Oct 27, 2010 3:49am Oct 27, 2010 3:49am
Quoting mizuno
Was stopped out on my EUR/USD buy. This is what I get for trading such formations this early. Still think that this has chances to become a diamond. One of the possible scenarios is this.
I got stopped out also, this is the problem with trying to base our entry on a TL, and we should also remember the TL only had 2 touches as well, so pretty much no technical significance. I think the symmetrical S/R point perhaps offers a more reliable entry point in these situations, see my post here. All easy in hindsight, but at least we're gaining valuable experiance.
  • #89
  • Oct 27, 2010 7:41am Oct 27, 2010 7:41am
Quoting niteshift02
I got stopped out also, this is the problem with trying to base our entry on a TL, and we should also remember the TL only had 2 touches as well, so pretty much no technical significance. I think the symmetrical S/R point perhaps offers a more reliable entry point in these situations, see my post here. All easy in hindsight, but at least we're gaining valuable experiance.
Yup, that horizontal line was probably a better shot. Nothing else to do now except to watch for further development. If we get the bottom formed then the diamond will most likely offer a few more trading opportunities.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD diamond forming buy stopped out H3 27102010.PNG Size: 100 KB
  • #90
  • Oct 27, 2010 8:41am Oct 27, 2010 8:41am
Quoting mizuno
Yup, that horizontal line was probably a better shot. Nothing else to do now except to watch for further development. If we get the bottom formed then the diamond will most likely offer a few more trading opportunities.

Attachment
Looks like there's a diamond like formation at the bottom. I dislike the steepness of the left bottom border. Watching only.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD intraday diamond M5 27102010.PNG Size: 97 KB
  • #91
  • Oct 27, 2010 7:00pm Oct 27, 2010 7:00pm
Quoting mizuno
Yup, that horizontal line was probably a better shot. Nothing else to do now except to watch for further development. If we get the bottom formed then the diamond will most likely offer a few more trading opportunities.

Attachment
Still might be a diamond.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD still might be a diamond H3 28102010.PNG Size: 108 KB
  • #92
  • Oct 27, 2010 7:14pm Oct 27, 2010 7:14pm
Quoting mizuno
Still might be a diamond.
Attachment
A mental exercise.

Step #1. Connect the two highs surrounding the middle high.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD diamon projection step1 H3 28102010.PNG Size: 104 KB


Step #2. Put the line on the chart with a round number
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD diamon projection step2 H3 28102010.PNG Size: 91 KB


Step #3. Draw another line from the same starting point, with the same
steepness but to the opposite side.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD diamon projection step3 H3 28102010.PNG Size: 88 KB


Step #4. Put the newly drawn line on the first low of of the broadening triangle.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD diamon projection step4 H3 28102010.PNG Size: 101 KB


Of course it's not precise enough, and we still don't know if this thing is a diamond or not. But perhaps the confluence of the two lines could've been used.
  • #93
  • Oct 27, 2010 7:24pm Oct 27, 2010 7:24pm
If we don't get the upper border broken then we have a beautiful setup coming up on USD/CHF. The two lines are completely parallel (and I mean it), the move sequence is correct, and it is pointing upwards thus giving a nice long opportunity, and the stop will be out side the day's range. The trade would be against the medium term trend but in the same direction as the short term. Let's wait until it gets closer to the bottom border.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF possible channel one border confirmed H1 28102010.PNG Size: 108 KB
  • #94
  • Oct 28, 2010 9:32pm Oct 28, 2010 9:32pm
Buying NZDJPY at 60.61, SL- 60.47. Not reversing. There's an unfilled divergence pointing to 61.30, plus the upper border has 3 lines so there's a good probability that we'll see the top border broken and the divergence filled soon afterwards. And now let's see what actually happens.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPY possible triangle buy H1 29102010.PNG Size: 95 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPY possible triangle buy div target H2 29102010.jpg Size: 134 KB
  • #95
  • Oct 28, 2010 9:38pm Oct 28, 2010 9:38pm
Quoting mizuno
Looks like there's a diamond like formation at the bottom. I dislike the steepness of the left bottom border. Watching only.

Attachment
Broke in the opposite direction of the main diagonal, looks like it was legit, though it did not offer any opportunities to trade inside.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD intraday diamond M15 27th 29102010.PNG Size: 102 KB
  • #96
  • Oct 28, 2010 9:45pm Oct 28, 2010 9:45pm
Seems that we still might have a diamond on EUR/USD. Inside the diamond might also be a channel, though it's too early to tell. The two lines are almost fully parallel.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD still might be a diamond H3 29102010.PNG Size: 104 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD channel inside diamond M30 29102010.PNG Size: 108 KB
  • #97
  • Oct 29, 2010 7:22am Oct 29, 2010 7:22am
Quoting mizuno
Buying NZDJPY at 60.61, SL- 60.47. Not reversing. There's an unfilled divergence pointing to 61.30, plus the upper border has 3 lines so there's a good probability that we'll see the top border broken and the divergence filled soon afterwards. And now let's see what actually happens.

Attachment
Attachment
Cancelling the order. The market changed it's mind and started forming a diamond instead. If to trade the break then a stop inside the day's range would've been required. Now let's see if it goes anywhere.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPY possible triangle but most likely a diamond H1 29102010.PNG Size: 111 KB
  • #98
  • Nov 1, 2010 10:40am Nov 1, 2010 10:40am
Was out of action for the good first half of the day as had to backup all my stuff, and then a fresh install of Windows until 4AM or so. Don't use "UltraSurf", there's a good probability that it is rigged with a trojan/virus, though Comodo Antivurs did not detect anything. Better be safe than sorry.

Grabbed the bounce off the top the formation while was asleep. TP and reverse - bottom rising border.

This can now be treated in two ways:
1) as a fully formed triangle with the correct sequence, pending a break, most likely to the downside if we look at the move sequence
2) as a fully(almost?) formed diamond with a pending break to the upside, since the main diagonal is pointing down

The complication as I see it is that the bottom rising border of the diamond has three touches (if we count the low of Oct 5th), and as we know there's a high probability of a break on the 4th approach. Igrok has said in his thread that he's never seen a diamond with a false break, and this diamond's diagonal is pointing down. So I choose to treat it as a diamond first, and buy the next approach of the bottom border, with a reverse. Hopefully I'll be able to put a stop outside the day's range if to reverse, or a local high will be available.
Nothing else to do now but to wait and see how it develops.

Triangle view:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD triangle view H3 01112010.PNG Size: 108 KB



Diamond view:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD diamond view H3 01112010.PNG Size: 113 KB



Long term diamond view:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD diamond view D1 01112010.PNG Size: 136 KB
  • #99
  • Nov 1, 2010 10:45am Nov 1, 2010 10:45am
Quoting mizuno
Was out of action for the good first half of the day as had to backup all my stuff, and then a fresh install of Windows until 4AM or so. Don't use "UltraSurf", there's a good probability that it is rigged with a trojan/virus, though Comodo Antivurs did not detect anything. Better be safe than sorry.

Grabbed the bounce off the top the formation while was asleep. TP and reverse - bottom rising border.

This can now be treated in two ways:
1) as a fully formed triangle with the correct sequence, pending a break, most likely to the downside...
If one has giant balls of steel then you could try buying this rising TL which is inside the diamond, with a stop outside the day's range just below the low. Or perhaps this is a hint to take half of my profits. We shall find out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 3rd touch rising TL M15 01112010.PNG Size: 101 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 3rd touch rising TL M1 01112010.PNG Size: 79 KB
  • #100
  • Nov 1, 2010 10:49am Nov 1, 2010 10:49am
With the EUR/USD trade I was trying to catch a third approach of the bottom border of a possible rising channel, but it seems that this scenario will not be happening. Still, let's wait and see if we can get anything later on. Green line indicating some symmetry.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF 50% channel + symm H1 01112010.PNG Size: 109 KB
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