USD/JPY Discussion

range between 80.40 to 80.80 then another drop.
but this week we have bank of Japan intrest rate and next week lots of important news, intrest rates and NFP, wich might change everything.

Currency-market intervention is most effective when it’s a “surprise,” a senior Japanese Finance Ministry official said, sending a warning to traders that Japan is prepared to act again to stem the yen’s advance. “A surprise move would probably be effective to some extent,” Japanese Vice Finance Minister Fumihiko Igarashi said in an interview in Tokyo yesterday. “We can’t make an announcement in advance that we will act, but, on the other hand, we can’t say that we won’t act either.”

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=262454

LOL.......talk about preaching to the choir!! They are a class act these Japanese talking heads!!

Cmon japs... intervene and shoot this thing to 100.00 now and I'll be a happy man for the rest of the year

well , it did catch up with yesterday's drop ....breakout from 80.85... i can't think further what it will do from now on ....

it doesn't look like a classical 1-2-3 .... but macd does look a little bullish with peeping out of the zero line ... need confirmation on subswquent bars and breaking through the lower upward channel line ....

what does the news say about sentiment .... have the professional shorties given in to make Noda happy ?

I can't see any intervention on the horizon while this thing has some life in it. It's gained (more or less) 60 pips today so far, and that's got to be somthing to make Noda smile just a little. I think it needs to be on the far of 82 to take the pressure off in the short term though.

With NFP coming soon and the QE2 announcement as well, it's hard to imagine Noda doing anything other that 'watching closely' until the 2 events have passed. If they have a dramatic negative effect on this pair, he might be forced to act.....**might**.....being the operative word.

I'm certain that this pair is going to hit 100, once we get a nice bull trend happening and the focus shifts from EZ and USA to Japan.....and that will be my target. I missed my chance for a long at 80.70, so if I get the chance again I might have a crack at it

lol yeah it's still the somewhat relief zone here... I'd say the pressure cooker's 80 and below...

Anyway as long as superior money management is used, we should have a good time ahead

gl to all longs~ and shorts~

I think that 81.91 and 82.35 are critical for UJ...still long way to come to those levels...

Proper bottoming pa must have conviction.

Currency Wars Still Far From Over
By NICHOLAS HASTINGS
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN


LONDON -- The G-20 accord could well make currency wars worse--not better.
Sure, the communique, as expected, looks forward to an ideal world of "market-determined exchange rate systems' and calls for an end to the competitive devaluations that have been threatening an all-out currency war.
The problem is, though, that G-20 hasn't resolved the key issue in the currency war--a weak dollar.
In fact, the market's immediate response to the accord was to intensify dollar sales.
This means that the currencies of those Asian and Latin American nations that have intervened in the past will strengthen again, making their export goods more expensive and increasing pressure on their central banks to wade back into the currency markets.
Corporate Japan, for example, is already looking for the yen to strengthen even more, with major exporters now assuming that the dollar will average about Y80 for the rest of the fiscal year rather than Y90 as they did before. BNP Paribas points out that for future investment plans Japanese corporates are starting to assume a dollar down at Y70.
See how the dollar has fallen against the yen in recent months:
http://www.dowjoneswebservices.com/w...RichMedia/4819Click Image to Enlarge
So although there hasn't been any sign of the Bank of Japan in the market since the bank launched its largest ever intervention exercise to push the dollar higher in the middle of last month, chances are that the bank will still be back, especially if the dollar's decline against the yen accelerates.
Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda has already made his position clear. "I think the moves yesterday were a bit one-sided," he told a press conference Tuesday morning in Tokyo. "I will continue to closely monitor these moves with great interest."
At the same time, China may have indicated growing confidence in its own economic recovery with last week's surprise rate hike. But, there is little sign that Beijing is about to halt its manipulation of the yuan, to stop it from rising too fast against the dollar.
Of course, the U.S. isn't really helping the dollar either.
The U.S. currency continues to be driven lower largely by fear that the U.S. will only avoid a double-dip recession if the U.S. Federal Reserve pours another massive dollop of money into the economy.
The latest guesstimates emanating from Wall Street suggest the number could end up being as large as $4 trillion.
The prospect of additional monetary easing on this scale has not only encouraged more dollar selling but it has made the U.S. the target of criticism that its policy stance represents strong currency devaluation of its own.
As this policy stance is unlikely to change just now, the dollar can be expected to fall some more, the currency wars could well intensify and the G-20 accord will prove as worthless as the piece of paper it is written on.
Early Tuesday, the dollar was fairly static, slipping marginally to Y80.74 by 0645 GMT from Y80.79 late Monday in New York, according to EBS, despite Noda's comments.
With the market still debating the extent of quantitative easing that the Fed will pursue next month, the euro was up at $1.3974 from $1.3969. The single currency was also hardly changed at Y112.84 from Y112.86.
Bloomberg TNI FRX POV

At apex of daily very tight wedge, it ought to rocket to 83+

In Anticipation of further pain in the ***, I am going short here (81.15), target at a minimum todays low from before (80.60).

Expecting an upswing in EUR/USD also... will help my cause.

..come 79.80



BOJ is the best..

From TA101:

In a down trend---Never short near or at support zones.

applying brakes on the daily chart ?

can we anticipate a reversal here ?

will a double bottom form ?

or go into range for a few days and break down even deeper ?

I am taking over from Koda now : I am watching closely ! cheeky

On the short run it depends on what USD will be doing.
I got a hunge USD could recover further in that case UJ up but it is not the real Yen weakness we are looking for......

what do u mean by this ?

Wide range bars/flushes that are bought leaving a hammer type price action. Basically lame action is not typical of a bottom, intermediate or not.

thanks .

so how do u think the daily chart will develop ?

So far so good. There is a concentrated position in non-commercial traders' shorts at a ratio just below 4 to 1...we are going up