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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #78,321
  • Oct 24, 2010 6:31pm Oct 24, 2010 6:31pm
  •  Jey
  • | Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Market Slave-Overworked/Underpipped | 283 Posts
Quoting ghous
A video...hmmm...maybe...when I have time.

Can't promise but I'll try my best.

g.
That's great g, looking forward to it...
I have seen the enemy, and it is me.
  • #78,322
  • Oct 24, 2010 6:36pm Oct 24, 2010 6:36pm
Quoting bluetrader
Hey Melvin, you made some great observations assessing market conditions. We can only take trades based on information to the left of that pin bar. I agree with your assessment and would have also passed on this setup.

Below are some of my thoughts to support your views...

Hope this helps.

-- Danny

Hey Blue,

Thanks for the affirmation. Really helps a lot when i trying to refine my trading strategy. Thanks!
  • #78,323
  • Oct 24, 2010 6:58pm Oct 24, 2010 6:58pm
Quoting Jey
hope ghoust can share some step by step write up guidance on how to trade these dangerous IPBs.... a video would be great.
Why would you want to purposely trade something 'dangerous'?

A wise man once told me that I was an idiot. Rather than trying to expand my repertoire into new and more difficult (or often borderline) strategies, I should just concentrate on the stuff that I do well - just do it on a bigger scale.

He was talking about something entirely unreleated to trading, but I think it translates well.

Quoting nasir.khan
I have worked in the financial sector here and let me tell you there is s high demand for CFA's also a lot of people get fail in CFA level-2 but i am sure you can do it.
CFA-II was definitely difficult, but not impossible. I think the historical failure rate is around 51% (L1 is 47%, so you have some selection bias in there).

I think it is the written answers that trip people up - their math is fine, but the comprehension not so much.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #78,324
  • Oct 24, 2010 10:22pm Oct 24, 2010 10:22pm
Quoting Pinbar
I have a good one, but I do not use it.


EDIT...I took a look at the indicator you posted, I think the one I posted is better, but the one you posted works if you go into the edit function and set it up to display arrows on the chart.


Give it a try. You can set the one up I posted to turn off certain bar setups.
Hi Pinbar,
How did you change settings to show arrow instead of smiley faces in the PinI4Bbar AHA indicator?

cheers
  • #78,325
  • Oct 24, 2010 10:26pm Oct 24, 2010 10:26pm
Quoting Pinbar
I have been practicing what Jarroo showed this morning.

I think AUD/CHF is possibly a good example of the bar closing above the PPZ and then showing us bullish PA.

Looking good Pb ..
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #78,326
  • Edited 10:47pm Oct 24, 2010 10:31pm | Edited 10:47pm
Quoting HanSolo
Jarroo, I just read Ghous' explanation on the psychology behind IPB but still I don't fully understand. Would you mind explaining it to me?
Looking at the IPB you just posted I'd intuitively say that bears are taking over. How come one should expect it to go up?
Did you read this post from ghous? .. . Intro and examples

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=52647
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #78,327
  • Oct 24, 2010 10:47pm Oct 24, 2010 10:47pm
Quoting ghous
Jarroo, I just read Ghous' explanation on the psychology behind IPB but still I don't fully understand. Would you mind explaining it to me?

If I may...

Actually Mike was kind enough to do a video for me at the PF where I asked him why big bars have a tendency to hold back on breaking hard and sustaining breaks and that got him going on order flow concepts including the logic behind IPBs.

What happens is, when a strong, say up trend...

You give me too much credit G. . .I guess it true that seeing situations develop time and time again, in real time, is different then back testing. . . logging the hours . .it has made a difference for me.

But a less then A+ setup better have an A++ story behind it (Thanks Mike). And your right g . .trade management can be the difference between a bad trade and a great trade even if the outcome is break even.


On the 2 Day IPB . . the other part of the story (that I didn't tell for some reason) was the PPZ level acting as a Support level that 2 day IPB was sitiing on.

Ghous is right, if the IPB formed at a swing Low (yellow) and was well supported (green) it would have been a much better and easy setup to take.




Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #78,328
  • Oct 24, 2010 10:58pm Oct 24, 2010 10:58pm
Quoting ^eagle^
Hello,
I have been trading for about two years. I have used multiple scalping strategies with pretty much break even results. I do not neccessarily believe it is because of the short term methods as the problem is usually somewhere between the keyboard and the chair.

Any way I have become so invested in short term methods I got in trouble at my day job. SO I have found it neccessary to budget less time to trading. I started searching for some daily trading methods and the trail of breadcrumbs has lead me here as well as another thread on a different...
You can trade on the lower time frames but you need to get your infromation from the high time frames . . .this thread can help you with that . .for sure.

Welcome eagle

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #78,329
  • Edited 11:19pm Oct 24, 2010 11:18pm | Edited 11:19pm
Quoting ghous
Jarroo, I just read Ghous' explanation on the psychology behind IPB but still I don't fully understand. Would you mind explaining it to me?

If I may...

Actually Mike was kind enough to do a video for me at the PF where I asked him why big bars have a tendency to hold back on breaking hard and sustaining breaks and that got him going on order flow concepts including the logic behind IPBs.

What happens is, when a strong, say up trend...
This is a wonderful post. Understanding the order flow and asking myself : who is really in control behind this PA bar helped me a lot.

I might be wrong, but I think one also has to differentiate between PPZ on an intraday basis and daily/weekly/monthly PPZ.

With so much activity coming from speculative and not commercial ( import/export etc. ) activities, it is clear for me that intraday levels are broken numerous times just to consume up liquidity ( feed the banks and large players ). What does get respected and eventually fulfilled is the intended larger trend ( true value ), that is why higher timeframes eventually do work easier.

Retracements of BEOB/BUOB can be
a)stop hunting
b) driving back price to get in again at a better level or BRN - for the client

IPB can be also a sudden exhaustion of one side of the equation, eg an IPB at the bottom of a move can happen if the sellers push the price to a low and then take profits. The sudden surge of buying you see then is a) profit taking and b) readjustment to the standard mean.

And then I notice that at certain times ( LO/NY ) a IPB or PA bar with strong break is created because a certain level like a BRN or PPZ HAS to be reached by lets say 11:00 a.m. London time, because this is the time of option expiration. So market makers or banks push the price up or down, creating an IPB or BUOB ( visually for us ), - immediately after 11:00 a.m. ( just as an example, could be another time ) you see a strong move to fill the gap of the wick.

Only a new ranging environment enables to get in new buyers and sellers, as we see recently especially with eurusd and audusd.

All of this has become MUCH clearer by going through Jarroos examples, not just by seeing the bars behaviour at a PPZ, but asking myself each and every time : why are buyers and sellers doing that, what do they want to achieve, where can price go, where are the nasty tricks and where are big players stepping in to ensure that price DOES move in their direction ?

Thank you, and good trading to all this week !


_____________________
michael
Be like water.
  • #78,330
  • Oct 24, 2010 11:35pm Oct 24, 2010 11:35pm
Quoting forex0908
Hi Guys,

I have been reading this thread for a month now. The first thing that I do with my charts is plot Monthly, Weekly and Daily PPZ Levels. I am trying to do the same for EU.

I understand that PPZ is more of a range where it has acted as S/R in the past. But for simplicity, I have drawn them as single lines on my charts as of now.

Can someone please confirm whether the PPZ levels that I have mentioned for EU below are valid / good / bad?

Monthly - 1.01, 1.07, 1.19, 1.25

Weekly - 1.2875, 1.39.

Also 1.18 and 1.24. But...
PPZ levels are areas where Price flips, as James16 talks about frequently. It is a key level where we look for PA setups to develop.

"Price flips" means where areas of Support turn into areas of Resistance . .and vice versa. This turning point occurrs (usually) once Price breaks the given level of Support or Resistance.

Good areas to look for these levels are at the top and bottoms of past consolidation.

I don't see this with your 1.3900 level . . here's my EU chart and another example.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #78,331
  • Oct 24, 2010 11:59pm Oct 24, 2010 11:59pm
Quoting ertorque
Indeed, a plausible 'reason' why it ended up bullish Jaroo but I think had anyone set a buffer of as low as even 5 pips would have kept him away from a trade of the 4H BEOB. Tells us how important a buffer level is to confirm the bearishness/bullishness of a PA, doesn't it?
It sure does, ertorque . .a good buffer can validate a strong break and the setup itself. A good buffer would have kept you out of that one.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #78,332
  • Oct 24, 2010 11:59pm Oct 24, 2010 11:59pm
Quoting jarroo
Looking good Pb ..


Thanks Jarroo, I had a good teacher!

Looks like it flipped at the monthly as shown by the close of the daily candle.

Heavy traffic area where it just got rejected by and I believe it may now come back to the monthly to retest it. If we are lucky, it may show us some bullish pa on the pullback. At last I see that this is how we look at it.
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  • #78,333
  • Oct 25, 2010 12:17am Oct 25, 2010 12:17am
Quoting Pinbar
You have to post a chart to play. LoL

The more the merrier.
Quoting HanSolo
So, here is mine...

Wooow, that is fun.
Quoting jeffokes
And this is my Daily Tf:-
Quoting forex0908
Here are my Monthly Levels:

1.4, 1.25, 1.10 and 1,07.

0908


This is great guys . .
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #78,334
  • Oct 25, 2010 12:25am Oct 25, 2010 12:25am
Quoting ghous
Think of it like this...

(and I am not making it up, it's how the big guy wants you to look at your PA bars)

A PA bar only looks like a PA bar until it get's validated by a break in the right direction.

Everything about your analysis and decision making regarding a trade setup applies only when and if the bar breaks.

Trust me, having a general view of where price is headed and why it bounces off a PPZ is one thing, and thinking and thinking and thinking over why every PA bar you see worked/did not work is entirely a different...
Thanks for clearing this up, ghous. That's what I'm doing lately: Just watching charts with as few lines on it as possible. And with that I become more interested in what is really behind these different setups. But I guess you are right: One cannot know everything and doesn't have to to become a good trader.

Quoting jarroo
Did you read this post from ghous? .. . Intro and examples

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=52647
Not yet. I skipped IPB information until now because the information here is so dense and sometimes overwhelming. I'm a slow learner I guess and I have to break things into small digestible pieces. I will have a look at it now. Thank you.

Quoting Pinbar
Thanks Jarroo, I had a good teacher!
Hey PB, is it your birthday already?
Thanks J16, Sam Seiden, Udine and Jacko
  • #78,335
  • Oct 25, 2010 12:36am Oct 25, 2010 12:36am
Quoting HanSolo

Hey PB, is it your birthday already?

Yeah, today....My wife just took me out for a wonderful lunch, bought a couple of nice bottles of Bordeaux on the way back. It is Time..
  • #78,336
  • Oct 25, 2010 12:47am Oct 25, 2010 12:47am
Quoting Pinbar
Thanks Jarroo, I had a good teacher!

Looks like it flipped at the monthly as shown by the close of the daily candle.

Heavy traffic area where it just got rejected by and I believe it may now come back to the monthly to retest it. If we are lucky, it may show us some bullish pa on the pullback. At last I see that this is how we look at it.
I see your chart on the Aud/Chf . .I like the .9500 level.


I would like to see some bullish PA at the .9500 . .its the previous bar High of the Weekly BUOB.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #78,337
  • Edited 1:38am Oct 25, 2010 1:02am | Edited 1:38am
Quoting msmarple
This is a wonderful post. Understanding the order flow and asking myself : who is really in control behind this PA bar helped me a lot.

I might be wrong, but I think one also has to differentiate between PPZ on an intraday basis and daily/weekly/monthly PPZ.

With so much activity coming from speculative and not commercial ( import/export etc. ) activities, it is clear for me that intraday levels are broken numerous times just to consume up liquidity ( feed the banks and large players ). What does get respected and eventually fulfilled is the...
Micheal this excellent insight! Please keep posting stuffs like this.
Can you please post a chart for the EURUSD and AUDUSD IPB you made referrence to? It will help.
Thanks.
  • #78,338
  • Edited 1:31am Oct 25, 2010 1:08am | Edited 1:31am
Quoting ^eagle^
i have read all the "reader's digest" versions of PDF f the thread that have hopefully described Pinbars and other set ups in detail.

I have a few questions.....
1....
I'm pretty sure most if not all of the advanced traders here do diffentiate reversal and retrace situations. But there's more to it. After reading here for a while I think it mostly breaks down to FTA (first trouble areas) and individual style, situations and estimation: some taking partial or full profit or moving SL or stacking up at FTA... That's why it's hard to give a clear answer, I guess.

FTAs are always important (I highly recommend you to have look into the J16 guest material). They tell you were price is likely to go and where it may head into trouble. Like a magnet they can attract price, pull it to the other side or switch poles and reject it when it approximates. Furthermore a clear, well respected FTA (PPZ) can turn into support/resistance and keep price from falling/rising back again and stop you out. So if you think you're on a big trending move depending on your personal style it may be a good option to put your SL under/above the FTA and/or take partial profit and so on. Since retrace PA tends to have a lower probability of working out and fabricating big moves (after all it's a counter trend move) one might favor exiting the move right at the first FTA. On the other hand, even a CT move can be a big one if things pile up (e.g. Double/triple bottoms, big PA, MACD divergence, obvious pressure to up/downside etc.) It all depends on the situation.

You see it's complex and in my opinion exit strategies have to be a discretionary thing with no easy answer to it. What's important I think is to master the basics in chart reading and price anticipation. After that: demo, demo, demo and try different strategies one after another. Finally you will have your own way to manage and exit trades that changes as you grow as a trader.

This is maybe not as a sophisticated and satisfying answer as the pros here can give you, but maybe it makes clear why there hasn't been a post yet that sums it all up. Still you can find a lot of examples and talk about exit and trailing strategies from the advanced traders here on the first few hundred pages and throughout the whole J16 thread.
Thanks J16, Sam Seiden, Udine and Jacko
  • #78,339
  • Oct 25, 2010 1:14am Oct 25, 2010 1:14am
Quoting HanSolo
I'm pretty sure most if not all of the advanced traders here do diffentiate reversal and retrace situations. But there's more to it. After reading here for a while I think it mostly breaks down to FTA (first trouble areas) and individual style, situations and estimation: some taking partial or full profit or moving SL or stacking up at FTA... That's why it's hard to give a clear answer, I guess.

FTAs are always important (I highly recommend you to have look into the J16 guest material)....
Damn good answer in my book, Hans . .
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #78,340
  • Oct 25, 2010 1:17am Oct 25, 2010 1:17am
Quoting Pinbar
Yeah, today....My wife just took me out for a wonderful lunch, bought a couple of nice bottles of Bordeaux on the way back. It is Time..
Inserted Video


Happy birthday, PB. I wish you all the best for your life and your trading career. May life give to you what a great, committed guy like you deserves: lots of love, friends and family and a shit load of forex trading money!
Have a great birthday, my friend!
Thanks J16, Sam Seiden, Udine and Jacko
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