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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #78,281
  • Oct 24, 2010 8:21am Oct 24, 2010 8:21am
I know, even high probability setups fail now and then or don't break out of various reasons. But while practicing my chart reading skills I found this PB on 4h GU and wondered if it would be possible to forecast it's failing simply by looking at the naked chart.

Of course, technically speaking it came from a downtrend and the close of the PB could have been higher but do you see any other signs of this PB failing/not breaking?
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Thanks J16, Sam Seiden, Udine and Jacko
  • #78,282
  • Oct 24, 2010 8:28am Oct 24, 2010 8:28am
Quoting HanSolo
I know, even high probability setups fail now and then or don't break out of various reasons. But while practicing my chart reading skills I found this PB on 4h GU and wondered if it would be possible to forecast it's failing simply by looking at the naked chart.

Of course, technically speaking it came from a downtrend and the close of the PB could have been higher but do you see any other signs of this PB failing/not breaking?
My IBFX feed does not have that bar but, it is off the weekly PPZ I think.

EDIT> Looks more like a neutral bar to me than a PB.
The open and close are identical.
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  • #78,283
  • Oct 24, 2010 8:33am Oct 24, 2010 8:33am
Quoting HanSolo
I know, even high probability setups fail now and then or don't break out of various reasons. But while practicing my chart reading skills I found this PB on 4h GU and wondered if it would be possible to forecast it's failing simply by looking at the naked chart.

Of course, technically speaking it came from a downtrend and the close of the PB could have been higher but do you see any other signs of this PB failing/not breaking?
I watched this on friday. Seemed to be a breakdown of the 1.57 and maybe a retest of this level as resistance. Monthly looks like a pin may be developing with a double top on the daily with a possible retrace down to the 38/50 fi.b
  • #78,284
  • Oct 24, 2010 8:35am Oct 24, 2010 8:35am
Quoting Pinbar
Looks good HS.

I like trying to work out the story.

Yeah, our lines are different but what matters is the story, I feel IMHO.

GOOD JOB!!!!http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...m/thumbsup.gif

Encourages me to no end.http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...im/big_hug.gif
What a great analysis, PB. You took it a step further. Maybe we should make this a new exercise: Someone posts a chart and the others try to explain what happened with price.

Quoting john225
Wow how you can do that i get confused after 2-3 hours reading james16 stuff and have to go outdoor to get a clear head again xD
I totally understand that. I had to take a few weeks off of trading lately to get rid of some confusion. I find that many of the things I read here start falling into place when I merely practice the basics.
Thanks J16, Sam Seiden, Udine and Jacko
  • #78,285
  • Oct 24, 2010 8:41am Oct 24, 2010 8:41am
Quoting HanSolo
What a great analysis, PB. You took it a step further. Maybe we should make this a new exercise: Someone posts a chart and the others try to explain what happened with price.



I totally understand that. I had to take a few weeks off of trading lately to get rid of some confusion. I find that many of the things I read here start falling into place when I merely practice the basics.

Haaaa Funny how people handle things differently.
I get confused all the time, it used to really drive me batty, now if I get confused, I just study till I find out where I was wrong and why I got confused.

A bare chart, no EMAs nothing, and dragging a single line from the top to the bottom, finding the nearest relevant PPZ to price, is really a grounding and pleasant exercise.

You can do it man, there is no other choice.
  • #78,286
  • Oct 24, 2010 8:44am Oct 24, 2010 8:44am
Quoting Pinbar
My IBFX feed does not have that bar but, it is off the weekly PPZ I think.

EDIT> Looks more like a neutral bar to me than a PB.
The open and close are identical.
I'm sorry I forgot to mention: This bar happened on the December 29th 2008.

Quoting Pinbar
EDIT> Looks more like a neutral bar to me than a PB.
The open and close are identical.
I must have missed this point. Skipping through my notes I found this quote by Jarroo (as an answer to one of my questions ):
Quote
We like to see Bearish PB with their Close lower than the Open and Bullish PBs with there Close higher than the Open. They show more strength when they are structured this way. The importance is that the nose is much longer then their heads, within previous bar, location, PPZ, etc
Thanks for your help.
Thanks J16, Sam Seiden, Udine and Jacko
  • #78,287
  • Oct 24, 2010 8:50am Oct 24, 2010 8:50am
Quoting HanSolo
I'm sorry I forgot to mention: This bar happened on the December 29th 2008.



I must have missed this point. Skipping through my notes I found this quote by Jarroo (as an answer to one of my questions ):
Thanks for your help....
Hey, NO Problem HS, I am really helping myself and you helped me greatly today, even though you don't seem to know it.

Right, I am off to drink more beer and celebrate my birthday at midnight, and have some quality time with my wonderful wife.


Toodlooooo Folks & thanks for the help.
  • #78,288
  • Oct 24, 2010 8:50am Oct 24, 2010 8:50am
Quoting Pinbar
Looks good HS.

I like trying to work out the story.

Yeah, our lines are different but what matters is the story, I feel IMHO.

GOOD JOB!!!!

Encourages me to no end.
Precisely the big lesson I arrived at...the market speaks but we all will get but only a near common degree of what it says and that's why we may trade the same system but each will do it somehow differently. Sometimes this is influenced by such things as our individual unique thought patterns and the level of our understanding of the language spoken as well as each persons prevailing environment at the point in time etc. What matters is getting the fundamentals (syntax) as correctly as possible and the rest is left to logic which of course will definitely vary from one person to another. Look at it like this...what is Ford and what is Toyota? They are both "cars" but while one is American concept the other is Japanese. I stepped aside not 'cos I thought I was getting the PPZ wrongly rather the guide for the exercise. I carefully was studying each persons imput and man it was such an amazing experience as I tried to see how each person including was reasoning - each sound and unique! Thank you all for the opportunity for this great lesson on a weekend. Long live this J16 and the "virus " created today!..Gbosa!!!!!
  • #78,289
  • Oct 24, 2010 8:53am Oct 24, 2010 8:53am
Quoting Pinbar
Haaaa Funny how people handle things differently.
I get confused all the time, it used to really drive me batty, now if I get confused, I just study till I find out where I was wrong and why I got confused.
I think this is one of the most important pre-conditions for success: Being patient enough to watch yourself failing and being confused. If you hang in there and keep going beyond you will finally master whatever it is you want to master.
Thanks J16, Sam Seiden, Udine and Jacko
  • #78,290
  • Edited 9:30am Oct 24, 2010 9:11am | Edited 9:30am
Quoting Pinbar
Ghous & SC, please gown your judicial gowns.


D3 and how it looks on H4.
PPZs are spot on as usual,

and you know the bias is to the downside for me due to that weekly IPB Not that I haven't been proven wrong before though

g.
I believe . . .
  • #78,291
  • Edited 9:30am Oct 24, 2010 9:13am | Edited 9:30am
Quoting nasir.khan
I have worked in the financial sector here and let me tell you there is s high demand for CFA's also a lot of people get fail in CFA level-2 but i am sure you can do it.

Anyway good luck.
.
I am aware of the difficulty level. Joel's made sure of that!

Honestly although I have only stepped into the field of finance I think it's my thing...

g.
I believe . . .
  • #78,292
  • Oct 24, 2010 9:16am Oct 24, 2010 9:16am
Quoting Pinbar
Thanks for the thumbs up G.


Well, I think I have put in over 14 hours today, I am getting a beer out.
Impressive...your charts, posts and insights delineate the hard work you put in.

Keep it going P

g.
I believe . . .
  • #78,293
  • Oct 24, 2010 9:18am Oct 24, 2010 9:18am
Quoting ghous
Since its a first degree its a Bachelors in Business Administration (BBA) degree. MBA would come later if i wish to pursue it, which seems highly unlikely. I am more inclined towards going for a professional certification like CFA.

g.

Cool.. CFA - Chartered Finanicial analyst ? very much in line with your current trading profession.

Good Luck on all your endevors !!
  • #78,294
  • Oct 24, 2010 9:23am Oct 24, 2010 9:23am
Quoting HanSolo
I know, even high probability setups fail now and then or don't break out of various reasons. But while practicing my chart reading skills I found this PB on 4h GU and wondered if it would be possible to forecast it's failing simply by looking at the naked chart.

Of course, technically speaking it came from a downtrend and the close of the PB could have been higher but do you see any other signs of this PB failing/not breaking?
Think of it like this...

(and I am not making it up, it's how the big guy wants you to look at your PA bars)

A PA bar only looks like a PA bar until it get's validated by a break in the right direction.

Everything about your analysis and decision making regarding a trade setup applies only when and if the bar breaks.

Trust me, having a general view of where price is headed and why it bounces off a PPZ is one thing, and thinking and thinking and thinking over why every PA bar you see worked/did not work is entirely a different ball game, and one you don't need to be involved in... at least for the time being.

Keep it nice and simple for now, and focus on the important locations and obvious bars at these locations.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #78,295
  • Oct 24, 2010 9:42am Oct 24, 2010 9:42am
Quoting Pinbar
Ghous & SC, please gown your judicial gowns.
D3 and how it looks on H4.
uh oh, im not a good judge, i think.
i have trouble conveying my exact thoughts into words.
btw, we are 'playing' right? i'll reserve my judgement til next week/next month, so i'll let PA unfold unto your plotted PPZ lines.
this is my 'way' of helping, regardless if u realize it or not.


btw, personally, i try to use as little color on my chart as possible. i do this so the bars will stand out as opposed to getting drowned/obscured by the lines/indicators.
for PPZs i use different line styles &/or hues (example, black/gray/dim gray/dark slate gray....instead of different colors) to denote priority.
example, for monthly/weekly PPZs, i use black colored solid lines, for daily PPZs, i use the same black colored solid lines BUT the length is shorter or only encompasses a certain length (this differentiates a daily PPZ from a weekly/monthly PPZ).
for H4 & below, i use black dotted lines that are relatively shorter in length (higher TF PPZs has a greater influence on price, time-wise, thus the length is much longer than say a H1, M30 or H4).
just sharing it, maybe a few here might wanna try it.
  • #78,296
  • Oct 24, 2010 10:08am Oct 24, 2010 10:08am
Quoting Pinbar
Looks good Adi.

Yeah, this is friendly learning fun, we can all learn from each other.

Ok, Here is my second Monthly and how it looks on the daily.


I am choosing the areas quite wide as we are still only on the Monthly chart.
great!!!

hello,P

how do you draw the lines @ x.y000..in the right of your chart. i ever drawed them one by one ,. is there any indicator ??? thank you
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #78,297
  • Oct 24, 2010 10:15am Oct 24, 2010 10:15am
hello,what is you common idea about Experts' forecast???

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/fo...010-10-22.html
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #78,298
  • Edited 1:10pm Oct 24, 2010 11:24am | Edited 1:10pm
i have read all the "reader's digest" versions of PDF f the thread that have hopefully described Pinbars and other set ups in detail.

I have a few questions.....
1. There is very little talk of exit strategies here. This is what separates the winners form the losers in my opinion. A planned exit. I see this all the time and it pisses me off. Set ups are a dime a dozen. and they are easy to spot. What is your EXIT strategy criteria? And i do not want to hear the "oh it's an art form" rhetoric. From what I have seen Once you reahc a certain price threshold you take out 50% to 90% of your trade set stop to Break even and let it roll. I have seen this written down in maybe one place. Would you exit differently from an entry if it was a retrace pin bar as opposed to a reversal pinbar?

2. What constitutes an A+ trade set up? (pin bar only to keep it simple) A pin bar on a retrace would seem as probable as a reversal if fundamentals are agreeing with the pinbar.

3. I see very little talk of fundamentals. As a scalper NEWs items are of paramount importance. How does NEWs affect trades? I listen to news and fundamentals as a contestant on the price is right. I listen for the news and fundies telling me to "buy buy buy" or "sell sell sell", Or If I hear "buy sell buy sell" I think it may be best to just sit on the sidelines.

4. What CAUSES a pin bar? I have scalped many of what would be a pin bar on Daily only to get caught up in a reversal. Are there specific events that cause this such as market closings and openings, News, or Strong areas of Support/ resitance that reject price? Which of these would constititute an "A+" Set up?

Thats what I have gathered so far but I need to take a break as my head is full of new knowledge to process.
  • #78,299
  • Edited 12:23pm Oct 24, 2010 12:12pm | Edited 12:23pm
Ok somebody PM me this question regarding Touch trades.

I was looking at your USDCAD trade , that touch trade. I understand that touch trade is based on confluence of many factors (eg: ppz, tl, fib).

But when you are first looking for touch trade, what is the first thing that will draw your attention that saying that "Ok, this thing has pontential for touch trade"?

Like when you are looking at the UC chart? What is the first thing that made you analyze the chart for touch trade?

I've been looking at your chart and rac's chart. When I see you guys posted the touch trade, it all makes sense, with all the factors line up nicely. But when I analyzed the charts myself, I am having hard time to find the chart with potential for touch trade.

I reckon i will have to put some time and thoughts in this response so it may help others too if i post it on the thread. I am not a senior nor a very successful trader (like rac) u should listen to but i hope i could give it my best.

The first thing is that when most NEW people approach touch trading they think like its really a discretionary method and you could look at naked charts and take trades of TL's and Fibs and PPZ's whenever you feel like or whatever and there are not many rules and quality control points assigned to these trades like PA trading have and this why they miss trades, get into bad ones and sometimes have no idea what they are looking for. (Anyone one can disagree but i am talking off my own personal experience as a touch trader)

But it's really not like that. You need to know "what" exactly you are looking for "where" and "when".

1- You need rules
2- You need solid high TF PPZ's placed on your charts
3- You need to know what market are you trading in
4- You need to know what kind of trade you are just gonna take to assign a management plane to it
5- Most importantly u need to get your MM and FTA's in the place

1- The rules,

Ok as i said in my earlier post that you have to know what you are looking for so you need rules and a system to do that. Ok lets take a type of touch trade setups for a start. So when you are looking at your charts u have to tell yourself this.

1- I need a strong trend, I need a consolidation or a PPZ in the way of the trend or BOTH, I need a breakout, I need a retrace to that breakout zone.

Next i will calculate my risk and see a reasonable place to hide my stop. I will also check out for additional confluence to have more confidence in my trade and further tighten my stop for example if there is a BRN or 61 fib level right near that retrace area where i am gonna take that touch trade it would be easy pick a stop level like 20-40 pip below that fib or BRN.

Now open a daily trending chart now and apply the rules above and see if it makes sense.

2- High TF - PPZ's placed on your charts

See next post.
.
  • #78,300
  • Oct 24, 2010 1:07pm Oct 24, 2010 1:07pm
2- High TF - PPZ's placed on your charts

Ok the most important thing regarding PPZ's and Confluence zones is that when you place them and when you look at them later when waiting for price to hit them. DONT TREAT THEM LIKE BUY/SELL SIGNALS. Place them and observe how and what price does around them Yeah i know what are you thinking now but it requires observing charts for hours, practice and experience. (what does't require these to be successful???) But i will post some charts to give you a guideline or example.

Here are some charts i prepared today for next week. What i am looking for are clear flip zones that are flipping price over and over again. Some them are clear and you can pick them up straight away and these are the best ones while others are a little tough to highlight and i had to go up a TF or two (weekly, Monthly) to see their impact back in history and than again go down too 4H and fine tune them a little to adjust them to latest price action.

Next i will observe what price does around them i.e with how much momentum/speed price hits them how it behaves afterwords do i get other confluence around them in in 4h or 1h like double bottoms and tops or TL's or if price breaks them i would than like to see if i could get some retracement entries.

See next post.
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