EURUSD

All you have said, don't mean much to me. I'm already comfortably short. You're still pondering, only means you've not taken any position. So good luck deciding.

EU

1. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=312657

thanks.
good luck to you

thanks DMA, will be interesting to look at it again a few weeks/months down the road....

http://www.barchart.com/commodityfut...s/ZN?search=ZN*

Try this ...

lovely - thanks buddy

It always come to this: Markets are driven by FEAR and GREED. There is no other way. Thats the universal truth and that has been proven many times .

......except on Fridays.

from my poor n stupid view, i do not see any reversal to bearish yet...unless as i mentioned b4 1.43 touch then i will get ready on it...H4+Daily=weekly did not show any bear reversal...look bull continuition...except weekly where it may fould by monthly volume as well as current candle...

i did told ~ last few week when someone make a call for reversal at 1.39 area where i disagreed with his view...n it does n 1.41 it touch right?

we still have one more candle for weekly before consolidate into monthly....

overall i am aside but still in bull bias....only this month close i will touch back this pair..done n off for the time being...when it touch extreemly at my TP#4.

could be interesting for cross next week where i could riding on it...

happy weekend n good luck guys

note :-
i start changing all my pound note n replacing with euro right now...manage to change it when i was in spain last few week...damm lost a lot in that exchange rate..almost 10K USD.
my stupid stuff n action...mm..damm it

g

(Reuters) - The Group of 20 major economies vowed to avoid competitive currency devaluations and shifted more power to emerging economies at the IMF, taking steps that analysts viewed as important for averting trade wars and promoting flexible exchange rates.
Following is a summary of reports issued by analysts about the G20 communiqué and outcomes following the gathering of finance ministers and central bankers.
---------------------------------------------------------

GARETH BERRY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, UBS, SINGAPORE
"The final communiqué shows all the signs of a weak compromise between competing interests. However, there was evidence of progress in some key areas and, given that the next G20 Summit is less than three weeks away, today's agreement could be a stepping stone to enhanced global economic cooperation.
"Given the absence of any binding commitments, the immediate FX consequences of today's announcement are likely to be somewhat muted.
"Despite its many loopholes, the general pledge to avoid competitive devaluation probably reduces the risk of a trade war. As such, it should be broadly positive for risk appetite and would likely be supportive of the AUD, the CAD, the Nordics, and EM, all at the expense of the USD.
"In addition, there is a risk that USD/JPY and USD/KRW could encounter some further selling pressure if the market wishes to test allegiance to the anti-devaluation pledge.
"Finally, the issue of how to rectify current account imbalances is now more firmly on the table, and the topic will likely be revisited more forcefully at future meetings. One way to rebalance would be for surplus countries such as Germany and Japan encourage their currencies to appreciate, while deficit economies such as the US allow theirs to fall. In anticipation of this, the market could be tempted to get this process underway ahead of time.

THOMAS STOLPER, CHIEF CURRENCY STRATEGIST, GOLDMAN SACHS, LONDON
"The outcome of the G20 meeting clearly shows progress in the global rebalancing policy debate. In particular the FX relevant sections have become a lot more prominent and all the key issues have found some mention, including current account positions, protectionism, capital controls and exchange rate flexibility.
"At the same time, this is not a Plaza-style statement that signals a broad agreement on the role currencies have to play in the global rebalancing. Just taking the first sentence of the FX bullet, the language is not tight enough to impose anything on anybody.
"The Chinese authorities surely think they already are 'moving' towards 'more market determined exchange rates' and they probably also think that the U.S. should 'refrain from competitive devaluation'.
"Nothing specific is said about Asian surplus countries, including China, to allow more trade-weighted appreciation. That is the kind of language the G7 used to use when getting impatient (see for example the October 2007 Washington statement). Even a commitment to refrain from policies that prevent appreciation in surplus countries would have been a much bigger deal than the actual statement.
"Instead the statement explicitly puts the following item on the agenda for the Seoul G20 summit, which suggests a wide range of opinions on capital controls still: 'Further work on macro-prudential policy frameworks, including tools to help mitigate the impact of excessive capital flows.'
"We continue to think the speed of progress depends largely on how quickly key (Asia ex-Japan) countries realise that there are no other sustainable solutions to their problems -- excessive reserve accumulation in particular -- than FX appreciation. The G20 meeting was surely helpful in this broader process and there is plenty of goodwill, but it was not a great leap either."

TODD ELMER, HEAD OF G10 FX STRATEGY ASIA EX-JAPAN, CITI, SINGAPORE
"Today's G20 communiqué fell well short of some market expectations for a Plaza-style accord to manage USD's decline. Given that this outcome simply reinforces the status quo which has seen trend USD depreciation against a range of currencies and the likelihood that there remained some expectation for at least a toughening in rhetoric, this outcome should reinforce downward pressure on USD.
"This should be particularly true against freely floating currencies such as the EUR and AUD, with the latter enjoying the distinction of being the most liquid currency with tight links to China. We see less scope for JPY to appreciate in a continued USD decline given that the benign outcome from G20 may raise the risk for renewed intervention by Japan given that external opposition was not so virulent as to see significant discussion at the meeting."
"Comments on the sidelines of the meetings thus far seem to indicate that policymakers across a range of countries were pleased with the progress at the meeting.
"Given how divergent policy goals were coming into the meeting, this underscores how little progress was actually made. As such, this outcome simply reinforces the status quo.
"The meeting produced little pressure for the U.S. to back away from its accommodative stance which has fuelled dollar depreciation, it does not call more strongly for increased flexibility in Asia and it appears to leave an out for some countries, like Japan, to pursue intervention or capital controls. This was the status quo ahead of the meeting, which saw trend USD weakening against a range of currencies.
"Thus the key question for Monday's open is -- to what degree was this outcome priced in? There are some indications that investors moved to better discount a damp squib statement in recent days as authorities from across the globe sought to diffuse tensions on potential 'currency wars'.
"Perhaps the most compelling evidence that this was the case was that USD weakness reasserted itself against most major currencies despite some back and forth on CNY fixings. This likely means that the magnitude of USD shorts still stands close to recent highs. Nevertheless, volatility surrounding headlines on the G20 even in the immediate run-up to Friday's close suggests that the outcome was not fully anticipated. As such, we anticipate that the meeting will serve to reinforce downward pressure on USD against the majors. Again, EUR and AUD stand out as likely beneficiaries, while JPY should not participate and could even weaken on renewed intervention."

CHRIS TURNER, HEAD OF FX STRATEGY, ING COMMERCIAL BANKING, LONDON
"The key story here is, of course, U.S. Treasury's desire for China (and the rest of Asia ex Japan) to desist from FX intervention and allow their exchange rates to be market determined. The fact that G20 members, including China, Korea, Indonesia and India, have signed off on such a commitment is significant. And the agreement is consistent with China's decision last week to tighten benchmark interest rates, suggesting the PBOC is happy to normalise monetary conditions.
"So what kind of CNY appreciation should we expect to see against the dollar? The PBOC delivered 7 percent annual appreciation between July 2005 and July 2008. And recently the U.S. Treasury suggested that a 12 percent (annual) CNY appreciation would appease them. The end result may be somewhere in between.
"To secure such an agreement from EM nations, it seems the U.S. had to agree to refrain from devaluing the dollar. (On the sidelines the German Economy Minister had actually suggested a permanent increase in the U.S. money supply was akin to currency manipulation.)
"Yet the G20 also agreed, as usual, that the global economy is best served by monetary policy securing price stability. And the Fed will argue that QE is consistent with just such an objective. Also we doubt the market will run very far with the view that the Fed will, because of this G20 agreement, choose to avoid QE measures in early November, and instead go the route of cutting interest rates on excess reserves held at the Fed.
"Another quid pro quo for more FX flexibility was a big change in IMF quotas. EM nations secured a 6 percent larger share of the vote and also two seats (from Europe) on the 24 seat IMF Executive Board. The U.S. now argues that with greater representation comes greater responsibility.
"Thus EM nations should allow their currencies to trade more freely. Even though the G20 meeting made relatively clear that more Asian FX appreciation is desired, Geithner has spelt out that this should be seen against the USD, EUR and JPY -- i.e. that the G3 majors are already in alignment.
"Yet we suspect the market impact on Monday will be to see USD/Asia gap lower -- and just as we have seen over the last eight weeks, USD-funded portfolio flows into Asia being recycled into the EUR as Asian FX reserve managers retain EUR weights of around 30 percent in their portfolios. We see the weekend developments supporting 'risk-on' sentiment -- especially since the G20 also agreed to double the IMF's $340 billion quota -- and a continuation of recent trends which stand to drive EUR/USD substantially above 1.40.
(Editing by Miral Fahmy)

Initial thoughts?

interesting chart..thanks.

see attached document in case you have missed it. It is a study done by the FED finding, that head and shoulder trading is not profitable. That is my experience too (FWIW)

Hi Mr. Hatch,

rallyes on low volume mean "sucker-rallye". It is what it is: a correction.

Look for another example SP500. Where is the volume? Not there, I would say....

I do not expect ultra-high volume, unless on the way down :-)

What's with the specimen?

Love the toilet roll!

I Love and enjoy Forex , I C It " Intelligent Challenge"
I Have finished my Long term Plan and 100% comfortable with it
Watch out

Inserted Video

checkers/draughts is more fun.

someone actually wrote at 74 page paper on this. interesting. thx

i m with u ..short!

agreed! short is where its at!

Oct 22 16:20 EDT a big flash crash in US DOLLAR INDEX Dec'10 (DX Z0)
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/dxy...rrency-complex
anyway EURUSD dropped to 1.37 triggering my limit sell on EURUSD short

strange stuff