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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #20,561
  • Oct 22, 2010 11:07pm Oct 22, 2010 11:07pm
Quoting Beljevina
I'm not sure if you're kidding or being serious with all your points ...

I hate to quote Geithner on this, but no country has ever "devalued their way to prosperity." And if it's fixed or held off the initial problem, it creates many more that are harder to arrest. We can put aside all the irony of the US doing the same thing ... they have a lot going for them that other more indebted nations don't have, plus they know they're buying time.

Not sure if you're aware, but Japan did actually do QE about 10 years ago, with 5% of their then...
Excellent Post !


  • #20,562
  • Oct 22, 2010 11:20pm Oct 22, 2010 11:20pm
Quoting georgem
if the longterm descending resistance line has validity...
I'd say any sudden upmove next week will be limited to 83 at the most... depending which day it might even be only 82.5

we might see an intervention going to this level

so I would short an intervention if it touches this descending resistance line.
a very fair comment

i was thinking along this line :

on a bigger picture .... if it is going to do a reversal, after a long decline , it 'should' do a double/triple bottom or a inverse head and shoulders .... if does a inverse H&S , then it might go below the present level ...

of course , the operative here is IF .

let's hear Malcolmb14 what has to share .... unlike most of us here, he has the tools to read the real 'universal' volume and his legendary expertise in VSA ....just thought , instead of taking a stab in the dark , lets get an 'educated' input ...
  • #20,563
  • Oct 23, 2010 1:59am Oct 23, 2010 1:59am
Quoting Beljevina
I'm not sure if you're kidding or being serious with all your points ...

I hate to quote Geithner on this, but no country has ever "devalued their way to prosperity." And if it's fixed or held off the initial problem, it creates many more that are harder to arrest. We can put aside all the irony of the US doing the same thing ... they have a lot going for them that other more indebted nations don't have, plus they know they're buying time.

Not sure if you're aware, but Japan did actually do QE about 10 years ago, with 5% of their then GDP....
Great post!
  • #20,564
  • Oct 23, 2010 3:29am Oct 23, 2010 3:29am
Why do you think gold is skyrocketting.....

Just look at 1500 calls of december..... massive buying.....

There is no smoke without fire.....

$$$$ was devalued by FED..... India/China and other central banks silently bought tons of gold.... central banks were so synchronized ....

Now that its known to public....... imagine what happens....

Devaluation is the only way to reduce debt for US now.... US debt is now at historic peak which mankind has never seen.....

Why doesn't US follow austerity measures..... are they afraid of another recession/depression ????

The so called *global recovery* has happened on the back of $$$ devaluation only....

Crooks are bailing out Crooks and everybody dancing to the music..... future generations will pay for it....
  • #20,565
  • Oct 23, 2010 5:27am Oct 23, 2010 5:27am
devilish idea

devilish

make Platinum the new standard currency ... Roman's were paid in salt ... cowry shells were used ....tuplip flowers brought a market crash ... silver shined for a while .... gold was used and dumped ....paper has value now, but losing fast ..... bring in the Platinum Standard ... !!

a shiny metal for a shiny new millineum .... hahahaha !

(realjumper will be amused .. cheeky )

Saturn-(Satan) day
  • #20,566
  • Oct 23, 2010 6:50am Oct 23, 2010 6:50am
Quoting Beljevina
I'm not sure if you're kidding or being serious with all your points ...

I hate to quote Geithner on this, but no country has ever "devalued their way to prosperity." And if it's fixed or held off the initial problem, it creates many more that are harder to arrest. We can put aside all the irony of the US doing the same thing ... they have a lot going for them that other more indebted nations don't have, plus they know they're buying time.

Not sure if you're aware, but Japan did actually do QE about 10 years ago, with 5% of their then...
..

for me simple..when come to this situition i start to love 'my history subject' where i never score when i was in school

In world war II occured who back up those countries with some fund, weapon etc like china, japan as well as UK (ahah love to remember why England won vs German that time when German still wanna go to n attack till London even jet fuel not able to reach to that distance with end up, UK just let German attack them.However German not able to return back n majority jet flown down because jet fuel are empty n this is the consequences lack of decision from their jeneral where England finally won this battle just like that)...

In this case, US in trouble...so.....who should work and back them? hehe

Its all well plan....

with this

http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE...;pageId=207685

and this

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...full-text.html

..

UJ is more driving by fundamental ?

Then let see starting by next week ........

just my 2 cents

g
  • #20,567
  • Oct 23, 2010 6:57am Oct 23, 2010 6:57am
Quoting grashid
..

for me simple..when come to this situition i start to love 'my history subject' where i never score when i was in school

In world war II occured who back up those countries with some fund, weapon etc like china, japan as well as UK (ahah love to remember why England won vs German that time when German still wanna go to n attack till London even jet fuel not able to reach to that distance with end up, UK just let German attack them.However German not able to return back n majority jet flown down because jet fuel are empty...
I suggest to go back to your history books...
  • #20,568
  • Oct 23, 2010 6:59am Oct 23, 2010 6:59am
Quoting grashid
..

for me simple..when come to this situition i start to love 'my history subject' where i never score when i was in school

In world war II occured who back up those countries with some fund, weapon etc like china, japan as well as UK (ahah love to remember why England won vs German that time when German still wanna go to n attack till London even jet fuel not able to reach to that distance with end up, UK just let German attack them.However German not able to return back n majority jet flown down because jet fuel are empty...
what's ur point ?

what's the bottomline ?
  • #20,569
  • Oct 23, 2010 7:01am Oct 23, 2010 7:01am
Quoting TheArcher
what's ur point ?

what's the bottomline ?
mate..think n find some of the clue from that ...

Quoting BlindMist
I suggest to go back to your history books...
as i mentioned..i never scored...got my point...



good luck

g
  • #20,570
  • Oct 23, 2010 7:35am Oct 23, 2010 7:35am
Quoting grashid
mate..think n find some of the clue from that ...


Comprehension wasn't my cup of tea , either .

how about some cheat sheet ... ?

cheeky
  • #20,571
  • Edited 9:17am Oct 23, 2010 8:07am | Edited 9:17am
Quoting Beljevina
If Japan were to create 5% more yen and then purchase USD/GBP/CHF/EUR on a mass state sponsored scale, those currency owners would be mighty upset because 1) the immediate demand would drive their currency up - something no one wants in the current climate but more importantly 2) the value "created" in those foreign currencies isn't real or lasting for the owning state, even if Japan now owns those sums.

Healthy states don't engage in money printing without agreed to money supply principles. Just starting up the printing presses as a solution...
US FED doing it on regular bases. If YEN sold for USD then this not going to
drive price of USDx too high, because of large quantity of USD world-wide.
Many countries including Asian are pegging their currencies to USD, so Gaither and Bernanke get mad and cannot devaluate against
them too much. Since US and England( for now) doing QE, I don't see any reason
for Japan not start super QE right now. Beside this would help Japan
decades deflation problem. They need to start printing BIG and printing now.

I guarantee even jawboning about QE in japan, will create major short squeeze immediately.

That Dude, from article have no clue what he's talking about.. He saying Japan didn't succeed 10+ year ago?

How about reality check???

You are welcome to view the Chart, YEN lost half of it's value to USD from 79 to 146.00.

No Shorts can take a control of USDJPY for over a decade.

And how about this.

You want to tell this is normal?:

"A DOW JONES COLUMN

The tasting menu on display outside the Japanese restaurant at the Westin Hotel in Tokyo had all the treats a foodie from San Francisco

would expect from a Western business hotel in Japan's capital: fine rare tuna sashimi, fabulous beef and wine pairings for each of the handful of items.

Then I saw the price of more than Y53,000, or more than $650.

I checked my total available cash for a 10-day business trip to Asia and wasn't even close for just that one dinner.

That, and the fact that company policy provides for about $50 a day for meals, sent me over to the sushi bar instead, where five small pieces of Nigiri

sushi and a beer blew through a day-and-a-half worth of sustenance, or Y6,400, about $80.

Welcome to the front line of the currency wars, where quantitative easing, smothered interest rates and an absurd expectation that

a weak dollar will lead to a U.S. economic recovery combine to make U.S. dollars a laughingstock abroad.

Of course, the Federal Reserve couldn't care less about tourists in Asia or Europe, especially business tourists, when it's trying to save

the U.S. economy from sinking into a 1930s-style, double-dip depression. But the currency war the Fed and the Treasury have started across

the world--flooding emerging markets with dollars and berating China for essentially keeping the weak currency they'd like to

see themselves--couldn't do less for American economic leadership at a time when everybody is looking for a strong example to follow. "
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #20,572
  • Oct 23, 2010 10:44am Oct 23, 2010 10:44am
What Geithner said about currency devaluations is total horseshit, don't buy into the bullshit that they are trying to feed you. QE means inflationary environment, not deflationary. FED said "if required" that means that they will not allow deflation to set in as they will keep printing them dollars.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #20,573
  • Oct 23, 2010 11:25am Oct 23, 2010 11:25am
Quoting jsspmk
What Geithner said about currency devaluations is total horseshit, don't buy into the bullshit that they are trying to feed you. QE means inflationary environment, not deflationary. FED said "if required" that means that they will not allow deflation to set in as they will keep printing them dollars.
Exactly....

Buy gold and preserve your purchasing power .... be prepared......

QE 2 and zero interest rates = Devaluation and Hyperinflation is coming on the way.........

JPY and Asian currencies will reflect it ....
  • #20,574
  • Oct 23, 2010 1:12pm Oct 23, 2010 1:12pm
QE or monetizing TSY bonds is a method to achieve negative interest rate
the method is necessary to avoid deflation but has no such effect . BoJ does QE since 10 years and deflation accellerates.
  • #20,575
  • Oct 23, 2010 2:24pm Oct 23, 2010 2:24pm
Just remember people, don't try and find the bottom. especially when this type of thing is happening....just keep going with the flow. Find the very bottom is great, but it's VERY expensive and can pwn your account

All we really know is it's going down, just keep selling until your shorts start losing....then.....start buying. it's not brain surgery.
  • #20,576
  • Oct 23, 2010 3:20pm Oct 23, 2010 3:20pm
Quoting Catch-22
...just keep selling until your shorts start losing....then.....start buying. it's not brain surgery.
Good Advice.
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #20,577
  • Oct 24, 2010 1:34am Oct 24, 2010 1:34am
Quoting SkyzerFX
Japanese can simply print 5-10% of total

YEN Quantity and sell it for Anything USD/CHF/EUR/GBP? You name it..
Very good question.

This is gonna freak out all US $$$ from Japan and unwind the global carry trade....... big smart money doesn't want that.....
  • #20,578
  • Oct 24, 2010 3:47am Oct 24, 2010 3:47am
What will happen tommorow, i did not see any significant result from the g20 meeting. Even if they agree that devaluing their currencies is the best solution for them but who know how they respond, so still act carefully guys.........
  • #20,579
  • Oct 24, 2010 6:23am Oct 24, 2010 6:23am
Quoting yeri
What will happen tommorow, i did not see any significant result from the g20 meeting. Even if they agree that devaluing their currencies is the best solution for them but who know how they respond, so still act carefully guys.........

I like to think in terms of why and only later when.

Keeping that in mind my call is for monthly 20 SMA kiss ie 90-91 @ possibly overshoot to 100 since it's been a support for many years. Although 100 is possible it is not yet likely without first seeing a reaction at 20 SMA. The bounce will be on both technical & political grounds, so it will be hard to counter it until proper target on long term chart is hit. But because USA will not stop QEing, Yen will struggle unless they do what the Chinese are doing - peg it to a specific USD rate, but how likely is that? Yam is not part of USD index & Yen is.

Anyway that's my 2c
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #20,580
  • Oct 24, 2010 10:25am Oct 24, 2010 10:25am
im new to all this and im reading and reading your posts and other resources but im still really not sure what's going on.

with the USD QE will that devalue the currency therefore pushing it down but to what level? a lot of people on here don't believe that the dollar will drop below 87xx so what is the point of QE? or are you guys saying that with QE the dollar would go lower?
Then what about talks of the BOJ intervention? are we likely to see both? QE to push the Dollar down then the BOJ to jump in and send the dollar right back up?

im getting frustrated with myself because i don't understand and when i read a lot of the articles around i really struggle to get my head round this stuff.

Do you think theres a chance anyone could put this in real Lehman's terms for me? I expect im missing something really obvious and therefore look like a prat lol Any help would be greatly appreciated.

cheers
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