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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #20,521
  • Oct 21, 2010 9:00pm Oct 21, 2010 9:00pm
just see a news on my bloomberg ipod, Deutz bank predict in the next 6 month yen will touch 75... hmmm do you think this is will gonna be real guys?
  • #20,522
  • Oct 21, 2010 9:06pm Oct 21, 2010 9:06pm
Quoting yeri
just see a news on my bloomberg ipod, Deutz bank predict in the next 6 month yen will touch 75... hmmm do you think this is will gonna be real guys?

No one knows, put up the weekly/monthly and take a guess
  • #20,523
  • Oct 21, 2010 9:12pm Oct 21, 2010 9:12pm
around 81.00 has a powerfull magnet....
if this pair go up, it will go down around there....
gonna put sell on a bullish spike, or buy on a bearish spike...
  • #20,524
  • Oct 21, 2010 9:27pm Oct 21, 2010 9:27pm
testing : grap +4
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  • #20,525
  • Oct 21, 2010 9:57pm Oct 21, 2010 9:57pm
fxcm web based -- demo
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  • #20,526
  • Oct 21, 2010 10:38pm Oct 21, 2010 10:38pm
might drop for some pips , 10? , 20 ?

81.13 looks strong support ...

if drops because of macd , might drop to floor of channel , 10 ? or 20 pips ?

...

nothing much to watch for now .... might range ... because the weather here is cloudy and cool and hazy ..the clouds are grumbling ... cheek
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  • #20,527
  • Oct 22, 2010 1:34am Oct 22, 2010 1:34am
Quoting yeri
just see a news on my bloomberg ipod, Deutz bank predict in the next 6 month yen will touch 75... hmmm do you think this is will gonna be real guys?
I think it is not quite likely to happen, although it might touch 75 as a spike. The reason is the JP gov is not going to allow UJ to go down under about 78 -- JP politician can't survive election if they let it happen.

My guess is, once the US economy starts recovering next year, UJ is going up considerably. I didn't buy Buffet saying UJ would go 100 last January, but I wouldn't be surprised if UJ reaches 90 next year.

Just my two cent...
  • #20,528
  • Oct 22, 2010 1:53am Oct 22, 2010 1:53am
Yen Rises Vs Dollar As Intervention Seen Less Likely ....


The yen posted a modest rise against the dollar in Asia on Friday as comments from Japan's finance minister suggested Tokyo is less willing to launch another round of intervention to weaken its currency. Ahead of this weekend's meeting of financial chiefs from the Group of 20 industrial and developing nations, Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said "we will again confirm at the G-20" that exchange rates should mirror the strength of economies. The comment was "clearly a step-back" from his recent aggressive warnings that Japan will act when necessary, and suggested "Japan will let the market determine the yen's rates," said Kenichi Nishii, a senior dealer


Currency rates are market driven.... 82% retail longs stuck ... oops

Yen will show the real strength to the world now :-)
  • #20,529
  • Oct 22, 2010 2:07am Oct 22, 2010 2:07am
Quoting ultra_knight
Yen Rises Vs Dollar As Intervention Seen Less Likely ....


The yen posted a modest rise against the dollar in Asia on Friday as comments from Japan's finance minister suggested Tokyo is less willing to launch another round of intervention to weaken its currency. Ahead of this weekend's meeting of financial chiefs from the Group of 20 industrial and developing nations, Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said "we will again confirm at the G-20" that exchange rates should mirror the strength of economies. The comment was "clearly a step-back" from...
No offense but I don't really trust what politicians say, JP ones in particular. For example, they have no idea when they say "mirror the strength economics" -- strength is a very much relative term that you can interpret whatever you want.

My point is, JP will intervene massively when UJ goes down to 78. JP politicians will justify it by saying anything.

My guess is, JP and US politicians made a kind of pact that they together manipulate their currencies clandestinely... UJ's limit might be 80.00...
  • #20,530
  • Oct 22, 2010 2:45am Oct 22, 2010 2:45am
In my opinion nothing is going to happend until 11-3-10 (QE2)...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #20,531
  • Oct 22, 2010 2:50am Oct 22, 2010 2:50am
Quoting Forexgogo
I think it is not quite likely to happen, although it might touch 75 as a spike. The reason is the JP gov is not going to allow UJ to go down under about 78 -- JP politician can't survive election if they let it happen.

My guess is, once the US economy starts recovering next year, UJ is going up considerably. I didn't buy Buffet saying UJ would go 100 last January, but I wouldn't be surprised if UJ reaches 90 next year.

Just my two cent...
that is what i think also, actually the USD/JPY have so much chance to reach 75.xx but there 1 factor that make this chance become smaller and smaller(Jap Intervention), but what is bothering me is, where are they(Deutsche bank) get this analysis. they pay an expensive staff to do this analysis right, so at least this is not just a imagination, there is a reason why this thought is suddenly popup..
  • #20,532
  • Oct 22, 2010 2:58am Oct 22, 2010 2:58am
Looks like so far this morning we have seen another rejection of 81.00. Stops must be building up below now.

USD/JPY H4
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  • #20,533
  • Oct 22, 2010 3:20am Oct 22, 2010 3:20am
No Yen weakness yet
Yesterday: USDX 77.80 => UJ 81.35
Today: USDX 77.87 => UJ 81.28
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #20,534
  • Oct 22, 2010 3:28am Oct 22, 2010 3:28am
respected the upward channel ...
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  • #20,535
  • Oct 22, 2010 3:55am Oct 22, 2010 3:55am
Quoting fosking
Looks like so far this morning we have seen another rejection of 81.00. Stops must be building up below now.

USD/JPY H4
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will it mean that they(professional operators) will be spiking down for a kill of the 'innocents' ?
  • #20,536
  • Oct 22, 2010 4:17am Oct 22, 2010 4:17am
If this pair can not break 80.80 today, I become more sure that 80.80 is the bottom for this year..
  • #20,537
  • Oct 22, 2010 4:30am Oct 22, 2010 4:30am
Quoting TheArcher
will it mean that they(professional operators) will be spiking down for a kill of the 'innocents' ?
From a technical point of view a break beyond 81.00 seems very likely. The outcome of the G20 meetings is still uncertain so a drift higher may be on the cards. I don't believe at the moment this pair is being driven so heavily by TA but FA. The problem is both the declining trend line and the 81.00 resistance both seem to be pretty strong. Could see a big move either way. I would wait for a break and a retrace then get in, looks like the safest option to me.


USD/JPY H4
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  • #20,538
  • Oct 22, 2010 9:54am Oct 22, 2010 9:54am
Quoting fosking
From a technical point of view a break beyond 81.00 seems very likely. The outcome of the G20 meetings is still uncertain so a drift higher may be on the cards. I don't believe at the moment this pair is being driven so heavily by TA but FA. The problem is both the declining trend line and the 81.00 resistance both seem to be pretty strong. Could see a big move either way. I would wait for a break and a retrace then get in, looks like the safest option to me.

I think of another possibility that UJ stays ranging around 81.00 until some real fundamental factors occur, such as primary rate changes. It could stay like this until December or longer. The reason is, (1) Yen is not likely to get weak (2) US likes staying low (Even though Geithner told the US doesn't tolerate getting weaker) (3) there is still a fear of intervention if UJ goes lower than 80.00, and (4) If UJ breaks 81.00, JP gov throws the money to keep it above 81.00 (as we see now).

Actually, some major JP corporations changed their estimates upon the long term UJ rate from 88-90 to 80-85; eg Panasonic and Sony.

What's your thoughts?
  • #20,539
  • Oct 22, 2010 10:05am Oct 22, 2010 10:05am
50% Fib gone, 200-SMA gone and Yen weakness, looks promising

H1:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #20,540
  • Oct 22, 2010 10:28am Oct 22, 2010 10:28am
Quoting USD-Bear
50% Fib gone, 200-SMA gone and Yen weakness, looks promising

H1:
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yes , will it break through the range .... ?

like to hear from VSA practitioners their view
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