USD/JPY Discussion

UJ seems getting a little active since yesterday. Many 1H bars are longer than 10-20 pips.

Does it mean anything to you? Do you expect a relative big move near future? if so, which way (up or down)?

I say it's going to be more active going down

On the short run (coming days) I see the surprises on the up side

For a comatose POS like UJ, this thread sure has a lot of yak.

Ok ! Got it !

from the HelpDesk chat :

fxcm.com ---- > forex software tab ----- > Mac/Web Platform ---- > Open Platform ---- > very very slowly into : login / password ..... !

(maybe the wireless signals are weak due to the haze we are having here..cheeky ! )

now : how to set up 3 frames (Daily, 4Hr, 1Hr ) of chart on one page ?... (refer to my earlier MT4 charts )

the Resident FF FXCM representative was kind enough to PM me to help out !

Thanks !

A Very Big

Well, it formed bottom on H4...if not broken will continue to go up or at least to maintain current range...

It's hovering around all time low, so risk reward is quite substantial if this cross turns North, even a retracement will be a very lucrative trade indeed.

P.S. Daily studies point to range expansion getting close

I believe we're about to pop north within the next hour.

I belive we are ranging for now and more to the downside soon. there will not be a big retracement before next month.

If UJ does drop, at which level do you guys think the BOJ will intervene?
Or do you think that a bottom is in place and we wont go down from here?

Im a novice trader and from what you guys have been saying i wouldnt want to miss the intervention if it happens!!

any other resources you could recommend would be great.

many thanks

Keep guessing ... when it happens you will know

testing ..testing .. grap ..screencapture ... paste

from fxstreet.com ....

http://i52.tinypic.com/196zap.jpg

Whenever a zone is tested multiple times traders will try to test a level higher, IMO next level to be tested will be Daily 20 SMA which is around 82.5, beyond that is upper BB around 84.

I too believe we may be nearing the bottom.
If I was you I would start averaging down (setting small buy entry orders at certain points on the way down. This will lower your average net buy to get the most out of any move to the upside (if it comes)).

I don't believe the BOJ can or will leave the Yen to strengthen a great deal more than it is currently has done, so I see averaging down a strong strategy at this point. But who knows lol.

Geithner Said He Won’t Let Dollar Fall, Mantega Says

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told Brazil’s Finance Minister Guido Mantega yesterday that the U.S. won’t allow the dollar to weaken, Mantega said.
Mantega said he and Geithner agreed to act jointly with the Group of 20 nations to find a solution for the dollar’s depreciation. Geithner also said in a telephone conversation that the impact of Federal Reserve policies is being “overestimated,” Mantega told reporters in Brasilia today.
“He said he doesn’t intend to allow a devaluation of the dollar,” Mantega said. “He assured me that the policy is not to weaken the dollar, but on the contrary, to strengthen it.
“I then asked him about the Fed’s policy and he said that this policy’s impact is being overestimated,” Mantega said.

Lots of volume through the last few candles.

USD/JPY H4

Care for an interpretation?

I don't normally trade USD/JPY but have been fascinated by it over the last few weeks as it's main driver at the moment is pure fundamentals.
The idea behind my volume post was it's pretty interesting that traders are really starting to build up long and short positions and the fight thats going on. You have the short traders who are following the trend grinding out profits and then recently, we have traders coming in long on speculation of interventions from the BOJ. That being said, any retracement my be short covering, but with volume increasing like this and no true break of 81.00. my bet would be on speculation growing to the upside.

I'm really trying not to get bogged down with TA at this point and understand what is happening. If this is the start of a reversal I want to be on it. Who knows, we may be seeing a lot of long positions being added which equates to a lot of stops being added further down. A spike further south is a real possibility at this point. As I mentioned above, I believe averaging down would be the best strategy to get in long at the moment. If it starts rising from here your in with a small position which can be added to later, or any move further south you will be adding to your position getting in at a better price.

Just trying to figure out what's going on really but I think we will have to wait for the G20 meeting for further direction.

Thanks for your view, averaging is a way, disadvantage is you never know where it ends so you must start small risking no leverage if it turns.
I'm in the same boat as you describe and I decided to trigger regular shots there where at least a mini retracement could be expected enabling getting your SL at BE really fast.
Results until now 7 trades, 4 stopped by SL @ BE 1 little loss, 1 little gain and 1 on which I'm still in as from 80.85
In this way I hope to be in a position when a major upward retracement/trend change happens of course risking to have no position at all.
If you are heavily involved in other pairs I would certainly suggest learning PA-character of UJ first because it has certainly one of its own.
Please keep informing us about volume indications they could be very informative.

Limit Buy @ 80.33 maybe < 80.10 .... depending on how lucky I'm feeling.

Nikkei inches up; focus on G20, strong yen






Thu Oct 21, 2010 9:12pm EDT

* Trade thin, investors nervous before G20 meet outcome
* Nikkei gains seen limited on bullish yen
* Japan finmin says G20 doesn't have specific FX agenda
TOKYO, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei average inched up on Friday on light short-covering ahead of the weekend after closing down in the last two sessions, with investors closely watching moves in the yen.
The market was nervous and volumes were thin as investors were unwilling to take large positions before seeing the outcome of a Group of 20 meeting starting on Friday. [ID:nTOE69K01G]
"Short-covering kicked in to give support to the Nikkei as the U.S. market rose last night," said Yutaka Miura, a senior technical analyst at Mizuho Securities.
"But the mood of the market is not too good. The Nikkei could come under pressure if the yen starts to firm strongly," he continued.
The benchmark Nikkei .N225 was trading up 0.5 percent, or 44.26 points, at 9,420.74 by the mid-morning session, while the broader Topix .TOPX advanced 0.5 percent to 824.20.
On Thursday, the Nikkei slipped to its lowest close in three weeks, finishing down 0.1 percent at 9,376.48.
The yen edged up to 81.20 JPY= against the dollar, still close to a 15-year high of 80.84 hit on EBS on Wednesday.
Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said on Friday that G20 finance and central bank chiefs do not have a specific currency agenda for their two-day meeting in South Korea that started on Friday. [ID:nASF000017]
Noda said they were unlikely to discuss individual currencies while emphasising that exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals.
On Thursday, the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI climbed 38.60 points or 0.35 percent to 11,146.57, while the Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC gained 2.28 points, or 0.09 percent, to 2,459.67.
The Nikkei could be supported at the upper level of its daily Ichimoku cloud around 9,300. It has been supported around that point in the last two sessions.
Still, it was expected to some resistance at the 25-day moving average of 9,507, Miura said. (Reporting by Chikafumi Hodo; Editing by Joseph Radford)