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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #20,481
  • Oct 20, 2010 11:00pm Oct 20, 2010 11:00pm
http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/tnks/Nni20101020D20JFA10.htm

hope the stars are aligning...
  • #20,482
  • Oct 20, 2010 11:38pm Oct 20, 2010 11:38pm
Quoting bablo
Actually I was being a little sarcastic, hence the sarcasm emoticon.

On a more serious note however, the only was intervention can work is with the support of other countries. Anything less can only deliver short term results.

That being said, I can’t (for the life of me) understand why anyone would think of the Yen as a safe currency. I understand commodity backed currencies but Japan is an electronic backed currency with a low interest rate. I just don’t get it
Sorry! I did see the emoticon, but I guess I didn't pick up the right vibe! (Some folks actually would think what you wrote was fact ...!)

Sounds like we're on the same page ... intervention has less chance of working today than ever before IMO, given everything that's changed over the years.

Yes Japan has a huge debt and all that stuff ... you'd think the markets would punish that as they have & would many others currencies. Here's though a different slant on that; just read this the other day - don't know if it was posted here, so apologies if it's a repeat.

The Economic Fallacy of 'Zombie' Japan
Paul Krugman and others have got Japan wrong: Americans should be so lucky as to get a Japanese-style lost decade

  • #20,483
  • Oct 20, 2010 11:44pm Oct 20, 2010 11:44pm
Quoting realjumper
I think it's going to be a real shit fest complete with chest puffing, posturing, threatening and very little actually being achieved. That's what my cynical side believes anyway. I hope I'm wrong and that they can all work together.

Yep, the meeting is in Seoul http://g20.korea.net/html/seoul_summit/schedule.asp

I'm be staying out of the market then too.

Yep so tomorrow G20 finance ministers and Nov 11 the international leaders...

Can't wait
  • #20,484
  • Oct 21, 2010 12:29am Oct 21, 2010 12:29am
“No need for USD to fall further against EUR or JPY”
the comment from Mr Geithner which got the market moving.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...LEFTTopStories


where is the BOJ... not their busns or what..

great chance to sent jpy to the sky... what else they need..?
  • #20,485
  • Oct 21, 2010 4:55am Oct 21, 2010 4:55am
Quoting nedal26
great chance to sent jpy to the sky... what else they need..?
More people to lose...
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #20,486
  • Oct 21, 2010 5:41am Oct 21, 2010 5:41am
Quoting georgem
More people to lose...
you right.
  • #20,487
  • Oct 21, 2010 5:42am Oct 21, 2010 5:42am
Quoting linkitone
Test of 80.80.... in a short time... do you think it will hold?
if stop`s size below this level good enough...boj will break it.
  • #20,488
  • Oct 21, 2010 5:49am Oct 21, 2010 5:49am
any ideas about the news?
i haven't got a clue what to do with UJ atm!!
  • #20,489
  • Oct 21, 2010 5:57am Oct 21, 2010 5:57am
Quoting linkitone
Test of 80.80.... in a short time... do you think it will hold?
I agree with you, soon another test.
it will hold! I wish I knew
  • #20,490
  • Oct 21, 2010 5:59am Oct 21, 2010 5:59am
Quoting georgem
More people to lose...
Agree. As I've been saying, UJ goes down more -- even 78.00 possible. Still I don't expect BOJ's massive intervention. All they can do is small size humble interventions. After having G20 and US QE, JP would very much hesitate to manipulate the market obvious ways.

So, I see a lot more people to lose next couple of weeks....
  • #20,491
  • Oct 21, 2010 6:41am Oct 21, 2010 6:41am
Quoting Forexgogo
Agree. As I've been saying, UJ goes down more -- even 78.00 possible. Still I don't expect BOJ's massive intervention. All they can do is small size humble interventions. After having G20 and US QE, JP would very much hesitate to manipulate the market obvious ways.

So, I see a lot more people to lose next couple of weeks....
Don't under estimate BOJ.....they have a huge budget set aside purely for intervention....so huge that it makes SNB look like the corner shop!! Also, USA has more or less said that they would be ok with some measures to devalue the Yen.....not in those words of course, but they have hinted that they would be ok with it.

Obviously it's impossible to know the outcome of G20, but from the noises from the talking heads, assuming they get what they are wanting, intervention may not be required. Time will tell.

It may go to 78...no one knows what BOJ is thinking, but if you're going short, get your SL to BE when you can because if BOJ do take action, there will be no prisoners taken!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,492
  • Oct 21, 2010 6:56am Oct 21, 2010 6:56am
Back to 81...

I would short even after BOJ intervens...

Unless there is global co-ordination, BOJ is weak....
  • #20,493
  • Oct 21, 2010 7:04am Oct 21, 2010 7:04am
Quoting ultra_knight
I would short even after BOJ intervens...
Probably the best strategy during the last weeks. Was thinking about this too everytime, but only after intervention has faded away...

Now I am going to implement it next time, only to be eaten alive by a 1000pip intervention...
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #20,494
  • Oct 21, 2010 7:09am Oct 21, 2010 7:09am
Quoting ultra_knight
Back to 81...

I would short even after BOJ intervens...

Unless there is global co-ordination, BOJ is weak....
USD declines are not effecting this pair when it reaches 81, looks like it is defending this level...
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #20,495
  • Oct 21, 2010 7:49am Oct 21, 2010 7:49am
Just signed up for FXCM Trading Station Gateway ... ''
web-based forex platform ... works on Mac computers ..etc "

well , can't get in ... anyone with experience ...please ... "Help ! "

  • #20,496
  • Oct 21, 2010 8:07am Oct 21, 2010 8:07am
Quoting USD-Bear
USD declines are not effecting this pair when it reaches 81, looks like it is defending this level...
USD may strengthen and yen can still go below 79... never rule out this possibility...
  • #20,497
  • Oct 21, 2010 8:14am Oct 21, 2010 8:14am
Quoting TheArcher
Just signed up for FXCM Trading Station Gateway ... ''
web-based forex platform ... works on Mac computers ..etc "

well , can't get in ... anyone with experience ...please ... "Help ! "

Not sure about that, but I use fxcm on a mac at work.....I just downloaded their java platform, added my account number and away I go....easy. The java platform isn't quite as good as the fxcm trading station for windoze.....but it's real close. I never have an issue with it.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,498
  • Oct 21, 2010 8:19am Oct 21, 2010 8:19am
Quoting ultra_knight
USD may strengthen and yen can still go below 79... never rule out this possibility...
yes that could be the scenario, but again why exactly would the yen then still strengthen on its own?
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #20,499
  • Oct 21, 2010 8:57am Oct 21, 2010 8:57am
Quoting realjumper
Not sure about that, but I use fxcm on a mac at work.....I just downloaded their java platform, added my account number and away I go....easy. The java platform isn't quite as good as the fxcm trading station for windoze.....but it's real close. I never have an issue with it.
thanks !

will cool it off for now ... and attempt it again later sometime ...

  • #20,500
  • Oct 21, 2010 9:03am Oct 21, 2010 9:03am
Quoting ultra_knight
USD may strengthen and yen can still go below 79... never rule out this possibility...
sure possible is everything in forex, no sense in trading if you only want certainties....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
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