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  • #310,881
  • Oct 20, 2010 5:25pm Oct 20, 2010 5:25pm
I say price drops like a rock to 3830 then sky rockets back to 4500 by 8:00 tonight.

I could dream... right? Nothing like a few hundred pips in a couple of hours... heh heh
  • #310,882
  • Oct 20, 2010 5:28pm Oct 20, 2010 5:28pm
Quoting pawpaw1000
if we were to break 1.4... where would you sell again? thats usually the hardest for me. at what level do you say, to here and no further.

Guess one has to look at the candle formations but I find it hard to distinguish between a consolodation and a reversal sometimes...

MM!
i tell you something, i don't sell into this shit just yet.
pricevolume reminded earlier, that yesterday was pomo. it was clear what was going to happen. i saw a chance of entering a short at 50%fib and at 61.8%fib, that chance got erased and i had to change my whole sentiment.
i am not that experienced when it comes to quarterly movements, as we're closing in to the end of the year, but pace and volatility picked up since september.

i was wrong about the head&shoulders-formation on h4, still a more complex version of this pattern is possible, but not before ~4010 and i doubt this playing out, but i could be wrong again. there are many things that could stop or slow this rally, i just can't keep an eye on all of them.

getting stopped out too many times creates humility, i guess. with respect to candle formations... this is an aspect where i could really smash my head against a wall many, many times. i realise them quite early, because the breakout-patterns are not that hard to spot... do i follow them? still not often enough. why? i can't answer that, a blown account should help me tackle this problem, i guess.
  • #310,883
  • Oct 20, 2010 5:28pm Oct 20, 2010 5:28pm
Quoting Pipfull
yeah...a significant break out of 1.40000 and then entering a bullish position.
This sir is a descending triangle formation.
It breaks down 65% of the time.
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  • #310,884
  • Oct 20, 2010 5:33pm Oct 20, 2010 5:33pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
i tell you something, i don't sell into this shit just yet.
pricevolume reminded earlier, that yesterday was pomo. it was clear what was going to happen. i saw a chance of entering a short at 50%fib and at 61.8%fib, that chance got erased and i had to change my whole sentiment.
i am not that experienced when it comes to quarterly movements, as we're closing in to the end of the year, but pace and volatility picked up since september.

i was wrong about the head&shoulders-formation on h4, still a more complex version of this pattern is possible,...
I'm super bullish mate... just trying to know when to close a winner or let it run... guess thats where we can start talking about having 3 trades, 2 tp's and 1 runner....
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #310,885
  • Oct 20, 2010 5:34pm Oct 20, 2010 5:34pm
Quoting Venice
I think you will find everyone has this problem. You don't know which it is until it has happened. All patterns point to a breakout to the topside... yet you don't see me going long yet.

I personally am not a fan of gambling in this market
Could be wrong but no gambling here only one way and that is up.
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  • #310,886
  • Oct 20, 2010 5:35pm Oct 20, 2010 5:35pm
Quoting longshot_nl
This sir is a descending triangle formation.
It breaks down 65% of the time.
Keep in mind, descending triangles generally are continuation patterns, not reversal patterns.
  • #310,887
  • Oct 20, 2010 5:37pm Oct 20, 2010 5:37pm
Quoting Venice
Keep in mind, descending triangles generally are continuation patterns, not reversal patterns.
actually depends on the market, but as we are in a bull market, you are perfectly right.
  • #310,888
  • Oct 20, 2010 5:39pm Oct 20, 2010 5:39pm
Quoting Venice
Keep in mind, descending triangles generally are continuation patterns, not reversal patterns.
I checked it before i posted on a website.
It sais:

"
The descending triangle is a bearish formation that usually forms during a downtrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when descending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of an uptrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, descending triangles are bearish patterns that indicate distribution.
"
  • #310,889
  • Oct 20, 2010 5:42pm Oct 20, 2010 5:42pm
Quoting longshot_nl
I checked it before i posted on a website.
It sais:

"
The descending triangle is a bearish formation that usually forms during a downtrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when descending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of an uptrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, descending triangles are bearish patterns that indicate distribution.
"
No worries mate... just wanted to point out that we are extremely bullish at the moment. Remember not to trade it until the break actually occurs. Any position inside is just plain out gambling...
  • #310,890
  • Oct 20, 2010 5:44pm Oct 20, 2010 5:44pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
if eu doesn't dropt significantly tonigh, it will indeed be at 1.42 - 1.43 at the end of the week with another pomo session ahead on friday. merkel mentioned, it would be okay for ez-economy, if eu rises up to approx. 1.5, my bullish longer term target is at 1.54 (long term is to be taken with a grain of salt considering the movement speed atm)...

btw: weekly and monthly pivots right in front... so what now? range down again? i don't get any clear signal.
Yes and the weekly pivot at 1.3968 and the weekly R1 at 1.3991 kept today's upmove contained. After that we have the 61.8% fib of 2009 H/L (yes I know it's last year but I have a 2009 fib on my daily charts)... Price touched and closed down from this level on Oct 14th. Above there we have the 100% fib of the last swing H/L at 1.4157 which is just below Weekly R1 at 1.4164. 1.42 may come but it has some tough resistance to break to get there... Plus the question of that 1.4 level and what it contains.

After that on the upside I don't see much else in the way of resistance other than 1.4253 (155% fib of last months H/L, good profit taking level on the fib system I use). Then we go all the way to 1.4352 which is where the monthly and weekly R2 levels are currently sharing. I do not have any daily S and R's on my long term outlook charts but do look at them for my daily trading on the 15m and 1hr charts.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #310,891
  • Oct 20, 2010 5:45pm Oct 20, 2010 5:45pm
EURUSD, Monthly
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  • #310,892
  • Oct 20, 2010 5:51pm Oct 20, 2010 5:51pm
Quoting T@rantula
On a good volatility this is a great setup for a long entry.

On m15 timeframe there is a confluence of fibo and a round number supported by a median channel just above dynamic support. Flat bottom triangle is another good indicator.


Attachment
17 pips so far on m15
  • #310,893
  • Oct 20, 2010 5:54pm Oct 20, 2010 5:54pm
Quoting mfoste1
lol.......here is my advice: do not listen to anyone but your chart. If you have a good system and you know how to execute it, the trade is there. It always is.

These "think tanks" spew out loads of BS.
thanks for the good words.

that's why i always missed or lose a trade every time i read this thread but i really like all the actors and actresses here just like in the movies sometimes there's a drama, comedy, action, suspense & thriller but its much more on a soap opera you just can't get enough but to wait and wait for the next episode.
  • #310,894
  • Oct 20, 2010 5:54pm Oct 20, 2010 5:54pm
Eur/Usd enter 1.4010 stop lose 1.3690 targets, 1.4450 ...1.4900‏

Day
hour
5 min (already a buy in from 1.3955

all buy after 1.4010

cheers

teb
  • #310,895
  • Oct 20, 2010 5:55pm Oct 20, 2010 5:55pm
Quoting PriceVolume
I've got my pending set, so I'm out of here.....just a few things for you guys to keep in mind - we've ramped up to resistance before news, so beware the likely whipsaw action that will ensue....also, today's a POMO day (so you know what the Fed's going to try, and might accomplish doing)....and, there are rumors that the Chinese data has already been leaked (and therefore potentially already priced in)...not confirmed.....good trades, all....
Well, I must say I suspected today would be nuts - but I didn't expect this nuts.

So, yeah....interesting day. Let's see.....we had:
1) Chinese data leaked early
2) Brian Nutsack pushing the POMO so Apple and Amazon could be bought in gobs....propping risk up - Dow 30000, S&P 10000 or bust
3) A planted report stating the Fed is likely to "aggressively" purchase 500BLN in bonds (Most ironically around the same time that Merkel was trying to talk the Euro down ). To which my reaction is: And? With at least 1.5T of QE already priced in....who cares? But bliss is bliss, until the music stops

If I were the Chinese, I'd be pissed right now. They did something real - a hike - and had it erased the day after by POMO and rumors. Take with a grain of salt....'cause it's just me speculating and I sure as hell won't stand in front of a bus....but I wouldn't be surprised to see asian hitmen in the form of soveriegn interest on the sell-side tonight.....if so, you can rest assurred they will wait for the opportune moment.....and the Chinese are the only ones on the planet powerful enough to bend Uncle Ben over.....
  • #310,896
  • Oct 20, 2010 5:59pm Oct 20, 2010 5:59pm
Quoting balut
thanks for the good words.

that's why i always missed or lose a trade every time i read this thread but i really like all the actors and actresses here just like in the movies sometimes there's a drama, comedy, action, suspense & thriller but its much more on a soap opera you just can't get enough but to wait and wait for the next episode.

So funny, but so true.
  • #310,897
  • Oct 20, 2010 6:00pm Oct 20, 2010 6:00pm
Quoting T@rantula
17 pips so far on m15
Write a little bit more about your TP.
  • #310,898
  • Oct 20, 2010 6:01pm Oct 20, 2010 6:01pm
a wedge inside a descending triangle.
I prace my stop loss above the triangle..
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  • #310,899
  • Oct 20, 2010 6:02pm Oct 20, 2010 6:02pm
Quoting egkid
Anyone know what the reason to that spike up after drop yesterday ?
News?
yes...usdx hit a key level and could not hold it.. here we are in a no flew zone atm. 76.88/78.13
its funny the way things work out.. yesterday the # i had was above murry. today atm they are exactly the same..78.13 is a key # yesterday it was 78.26 i think.. 76.88 was my uncle # last week. i told everyone i would close my eu short here as a sl.. today the # has a new meaning.
on the eu on my day chart a close here gives a huge tweezers meaning a big dip for usd.. and a large eu rise. what happens next remains to be seen. it had got above 78.26 to 78.37.. i thought it had been broken, but it didnt hold. looking back i can see it has done this in the past. it usually has to bust through more then once. im using a 4h tf on the usxd... but a weekly tf on the eu.. and in that weekly there many intra day violent moves. if weekly analysis is correct we are in the sausage making part.. with violent moves.. both can be correct so for it to be we may have a double or new top in the 4181 area. i dont know what it will do. but i respect the tweezers . i also respect the weekly and longer term chart. and the % of moves that i have already posted.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #310,900
  • Oct 20, 2010 6:06pm Oct 20, 2010 6:06pm
Quoting longshot_nl
a wedge inside a descending triangle.
I prace my stop loss above the triangle..
Good luck! I wish it to all of us...!
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