EURUSD

Pull the trigger?

Or pull my finger?

hai guys .......eur will move up until area 1.383 then up and down...?

it's not. i spent years studying this and i came to this conclusion.
but let me put it another way - if it were, you'd be a millionaire, because you would apply statistics and so you would always be profitable. are you?

It's a possibility.

Of course, if anyone could answer that with absolute certainty, Lloyd Blankfein would be shining that person's shoes.

3826 is a great area to watch for a reversal or a continued uptrend..us dollar index is down at the moment but who knows

hour chart is on the 20MA, if it breaks it I don't see it breaking out past the upper bb. My call's still bearish for the next few days as the weekly bull breakout pulls back.

agreed. I have .3813,ish, area.

So you see what's ahead by looking ahead? Dude if you can see the future please fill us in, until then we will have to deal with getting hints from the immediate past and present.

I'm getting the impression too many people on FF don't understand what indicators are and how too utilize them, NOT use them?

ya ..true...

No, you would not win every trade - you will still book losses....statistics only provide probability, not certainty. There is no "holy grail". The problem is that most people try to apply statistics assuming gaussian distribution....you know...the kind that assumes a normal distribution. Such fails, as you point out, because the market is not a normal distribution. Non-gaussian approaches, however, do provide an edge when properly applied. These approaches do not fall into the trap of assuming the market behaves in a normal distributive fashion. Since you ask - yes, I am profitable.

Hi DMA,

sorry, but maybe I was not clear:

I wanted to say:

Maybe, and it has out of my sight a high probability, the whole downmove is only corretive. A ABC Zigzag correction. That would explain, why it is hard to count the impulses.

So I expect a run up to a new high 1.42-1.44


But maybe we are tracing out a huge Leading Diagonal which have the structure of 3-3-3-3-3. Then we would now have nearly the first 3 concluded.

We might get a sense of that in the next upmove.


Right now there a way too much scenarios that are possible. Maybe we are on the way to a new top but only in a wave A of a huge ABC pattern of a wave 4.

Back to topic - even when we make a new high I will remain a mid and long term USD bull and Euro bear. So I said to Skyzer that I am short term Euro bullish.


FED can print all the money they want. They are not able to inflate the system. US has nearly doubled its monetary base since two years, from around 2 trillion to around 4 trillion (when my memory serves me right). But the amount of debt is between 50 and 200 trillion (depends on calculation)

Inflation, most people think it is measured by the amount of M2, is not only measured by the amount of M2, it is measured by taking M2 and the amount of debt.

When debt defaults, that money is no longer in the system. It is gone. You can then inflate the M2 by this amount without causing inflation.

Now do the math: When from now on over the next 12 month ONLY 5% of debt defaults (taking the 50 Trillion figure), how many new money can FED print without diluting?

I wrote, that FED doubled the monetary base over the last two years. Have the prices of cars in USA doubled up? Hamburgers, Cigarettes, Milk, etc etc....? No, they have not. Where is the inflation all are taking about? Complete nonsense.

Now take another point in focus: Velocity of money. When social mood gets real bad, velocity of money slows down enormously. See Japan. Slowing down of velocity of money means, because of M x V = P x Q (and assuming that M and Q are stable) that P (Price level) has to go down.

Then, last point, take into account, that the most debt, worldwide, is denominated in USD. And debt worldwide is defaulting in high speed. That will put value to the remaining USD.

Do not understand me wrong. I do not believe that USD is a healthy currency. But it might temporarily the healthiest one under the doomed.

Would you guys recommend only using Murrey's math s/r on 4H TF?

Can't see why else it's reacting here...

looks like 3783/85 is turning into stiffer resistance...

Thanks, i will check it now.
BTW bull breaking every bear resistance attempt since 3700. This is not a good sign for bear

Can anyone tell me where i can find live feed /chart of the usd index?

Hi mr. Hatch,

hope all is well.

I took the trade at rebound, because I was caught by surprise, thought we would get a higher retracement. I shorted at 3945 but was out at 3794. At that time I thought the downmove was part of a flat correction and expected price to reverse up.

Never ever in my life I have seen such a crappy impulse down. I really have no good clue right now where we are in the waves (lost in the sea :-) )

get a practice account with a brokerage. I use MBTrading.com because it's an ECN, but I'm sure you could search around and find any you really like.

he will definitely leave gms to shine mine.. but hey no one can tell...we are all using probability to determine the next action...lol

hmm... sell sell sell....up then sell... space for breasih breathing...maybe need more space today...