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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #20,401
  • Oct 19, 2010 2:01pm Oct 19, 2010 2:01pm
I wonder.. If euro is going down, why the hell is YEN going down too?
It went up up up then bang.. goes dowwn.. ZzzZzzZ
  • #20,402
  • Oct 19, 2010 2:21pm Oct 19, 2010 2:21pm
Quoting SaiDawi
I wonder.. If euro is going down, why the hell is YEN going down too?
It went up up up then bang.. goes dowwn.. ZzzZzzZ
USD/YEN is going down because YEN is going up faster then USD is
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #20,403
  • Oct 19, 2010 2:27pm Oct 19, 2010 2:27pm
Looking at AUDJPY we can see that it`s moving to its long-term triangle support line on daily charts. It`s not so far. So, probably, we`ll have a turning on JPY rather soon (in couple of days, same G20).

Well, just hoping...
Vladimir Vereshchak - Making People Wealthier!
  • #20,404
  • Oct 19, 2010 2:28pm Oct 19, 2010 2:28pm
Quoting Beljevina
Don't forget the $47B of forced mortgage/bond repurchases: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/pim...hase-mortgages (The news was release exactly 1:59pm - how convenient - right after the 12-2 incubation/slow/lunch period)

You know ... this (USA) place is no better run than many a communist controlled dictatorship of the past. Doesn't Obama know he can just buy an extra set of printing presses for the bank salvation branch of the business?
ah, thanks Beljevina
but I must confess I do not understand why this has positive influence on USD I could see a positive influence from that on Yen though....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #20,405
  • Oct 19, 2010 2:52pm Oct 19, 2010 2:52pm
Quoting USD-Bear
ah, thanks Beljevina
but I must confess I do not understand why this has positive influence on USD I could see a positive influence from that on Yen though....
I wouldn't say it was immediately positive or negative on USD. It did though tank stocks further and we've had a heavy correlation all day between most pairs and the direction of the S&P. Traditionally USD would rally as theoretically money flows out of stocks into the USD, but that was built in to the ~60 pip uplift that USDJPY saw earlier. I hadn't been looking at USDX all day - am amazed to see the final day's result. It was basically a day of buy the USD, sell everything else.

These guys summarize the correlation-of-the-day that was in play today: http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/29...-s-p-500-again POMO reports for duty tomorrow, so we should undo some of these moves. (Unless you're sterling which I think is in jeopardy come London session)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-10-19_154954.png Size: 37 KB
  • #20,406
  • Oct 19, 2010 3:30pm Oct 19, 2010 3:30pm
Quoting Beljevina
I wouldn't say it was immediately positive or negative on USD. It did though tank stocks further and we've had a heavy correlation all day between most pairs and the direction of the S&P. Traditionally USD would rally as theoretically money flows out of stocks into the USD, but that was built in to the ~60 pip uplift that USDJPY saw earlier. I hadn't been looking at USDX all day - am amazed to see the final day's result. It was basically a day of buy the USD, sell everything else.

These guys summarize the correlation-of-the-day that was in play...
Well in this case it was just understanding UJ correlations
This explains a lot, thanks very much, you have great sources!
Following my own correlations I would suggest USD will indeed undo part (if not more) of this move prob. hurting UJ again
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #20,407
  • Oct 19, 2010 3:39pm Oct 19, 2010 3:39pm
Quoting USD-Bear
Well in this case it was just understanding UJ correlations
This explains a lot, thanks very much, you have great sources!
Following my own correlations I would suggest USD will indeed undo part (if not more) of this move prob. hurting UJ again
NP - I'm always trying to determine the correlations myself - you really need to have lots of charts up and know how to read and judge 'em. And practice makes perfect. In case you didn't catch the video update from TheLFB, this one, like all of their summaries, is crucial to understanding market forces today. http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/29...l-dollar-moves
  • #20,408
  • Oct 19, 2010 6:33pm Oct 19, 2010 6:33pm
Here are 2 charts. Unfortunately, because it's a trial of software the EOD data is delayed by almost 4 weeks, so it is not up to date. Both are Monthly charts & at the bottom is the COTs indicator. I had a look at previous COTs numbers & also current week & it shouldn't look much different (as far as COT indicator is concerned). 28 & 14 MAs analyse COT data of commercial Long/Short vs non-commercial Long/Short positions. Yellow line is Open Interest.

Discuss.



Japanese YEN, CME (Combined)

http://i52.tinypic.com/nm0p61.jpg




U.S. Dollar

http://i55.tinypic.com/2h6geoh.jpg
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #20,409
  • Oct 19, 2010 7:42pm Oct 19, 2010 7:42pm
Getting down to the business end of this channel......
Attached Image
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,410
  • Oct 19, 2010 7:52pm Oct 19, 2010 7:52pm
ok so based on JPY index. we are getting close to the level of last intervention or already below today.

i would be surprise if they move before G20 meeting in this weekend.
maybe after that if this thing keep going up by then
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #20,411
  • Oct 19, 2010 7:55pm Oct 19, 2010 7:55pm
Quoting DMA Trader
ok so based on JPY index. we are getting close to the level of last intervention or already below today.

i would be surprise if they move before G20 meeting in this weekend.
maybe after that if this thing keep going up by then
I agree.....no way they will get into this before G20. I wonder what sort of 'gap' we will see next week? I guess it all depends on what goes on at G20....
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,412
  • Oct 19, 2010 9:08pm Oct 19, 2010 9:08pm
Quoting realjumper
I agree.....no way they will get into this before G20. I wonder what sort of 'gap' we will see next week? I guess it all depends on what goes on at G20....
I also heard from my broker that intervention could be based on the Trading Index found on this website:
http://www.boj.or.jp/en/type/stat/bo...ly10/index.htm

Its the last figure in the PDF - if it falls under 120, intervention would be in the works .... rumour or not, good to keep an eye on it
  • #20,413
  • Oct 19, 2010 9:50pm Oct 19, 2010 9:50pm
ranging between 81.11 and 81.81 until hell breaks loose ....?

in near term ... looks like it might be a gentle drift to the floor from 81.36 to 81.11 ..... some 20 odd pips ... ?

realjumper 's downward channel looks clean ...


http://rt2.it-finance.com/FXStreetLi...12875424946078
  • #20,414
  • Oct 20, 2010 2:00am Oct 20, 2010 2:00am
really a comatose patient... like watching the paint dry
  • #20,415
  • Oct 20, 2010 3:19am Oct 20, 2010 3:19am
Quoting dannbb
really a comatose patient... like watching the paint dry
ummm, without intervention this isn't going to get anywhere short term.

Don't worry, I'm watching the currency very very closely
I'm watching this currency so closely I'm using windows magnifier
  • #20,416
  • Oct 20, 2010 4:28am Oct 20, 2010 4:28am
guys go trade another pair ^^

usdjpy sucks and isn't really volatile.... just waiting for spike : /
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #20,417
  • Oct 20, 2010 4:58am Oct 20, 2010 4:58am
Noda will do the decent thing eventually, it's a matter of when not if, but we'll all probably have to wait a long time for it.

Why don't we all email him lol?
I'm watching this currency so closely I'm using windows magnifier
  • #20,418
  • Oct 20, 2010 5:10am Oct 20, 2010 5:10am
Quoting realjumper
Getting down to the business end of this channel......
Zooming in a bit on our green area.....look where we are now.
Attached Image
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,419
  • Oct 20, 2010 5:33am Oct 20, 2010 5:33am
Quoting realjumper
Zooming in a bit on our green area.....look where we are now.
With this kind of protection I might try again at 81.13
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #20,420
  • Oct 20, 2010 6:01am Oct 20, 2010 6:01am
Quoting PhAnTi'
guys go trade another pair ^^

usdjpy sucks and isn't really volatile.... just waiting for spike : /

Probability trades are normally set when doubt in either direction is present... just like now
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