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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #20,361
  • Oct 19, 2010 7:20am Oct 19, 2010 7:20am
could it be a bull trap? If i'm not wrong, it broke the daily resistance? or uptrend starting? 4h heiken ashi and smoothes heiken ashi started showing bullish candles. correct if wrong.
  • #20,362
  • Oct 19, 2010 7:31am Oct 19, 2010 7:31am
Quoting tenogy
could it be a bull trap? If i'm not wrong, it broke the daily resistance? or uptrend starting? 4h heiken ashi and smoothes heiken ashi started showing bullish candles. correct if wrong.
It was at this level last week too...on the 14th...then it fell back to 80.85. It's only risen 40 odd pips since Asia open, so it doesn't mean much on it's own.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,363
  • Oct 19, 2010 8:51am Oct 19, 2010 8:51am
Quoting USD-Bear
Trying to be confident:
UTL H1 broken, now looking for 81.7 200-SMA and 82.06 38.2% retracement

H1:
Attachment
All going well, just would be more confident if there would be some Yen weakness, atm it's all USD strength carrying this up move....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #20,364
  • Oct 19, 2010 8:54am Oct 19, 2010 8:54am
Quoting USD-Bear
All going well, just would be more confident if there would be some Yen weakness, atm it's all USD strength carrying this up move....
Way to go!! Finally my patience may be paid off...
  • #20,365
  • Oct 19, 2010 9:08am Oct 19, 2010 9:08am
waiting for it to go back to 81.00 :-) it will happen within 24 h
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #20,366
  • Oct 19, 2010 9:35am Oct 19, 2010 9:35am
Quoting Forexgogo
Way to go!! Finally my patience may be paid off...
Very nice. Looks like I transferred my money to you :-)
  • #20,367
  • Oct 19, 2010 10:01am Oct 19, 2010 10:01am
i hope it will break 82,80...
i still believe 80.88 is the bottom..
  • #20,368
  • Oct 19, 2010 10:17am Oct 19, 2010 10:17am
Quoting Hugo Boss
i hope it will break 82,80...
i still believe 80.88 is the bottom..
na-ah... we are going to see more consolidation between 80 and <82, before it will break 82. Downtrend was too fierce all thos past weeks and months... this is NOT OVER!
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #20,369
  • Oct 19, 2010 10:19am Oct 19, 2010 10:19am
UJ has perfected this move: One step forward, two steps back.
  • #20,370
  • Oct 19, 2010 10:19am Oct 19, 2010 10:19am
Hi, guys,

Somebody posted a link to BOJ`s Yen Index a while ago. So, I made two charts, comparing Yen Index with USDJPY starting from 1 of Sep. Please see attached.

It`s notable, that on the day right before the intervention the Index had a value of 124.26 (the maximal for Sept. 2010 is 124.44). The intervention decreased the value to 120.36. The current value is 123.77. Lets do a math:

(124.26 + 124.44) / 2 = 124.35; - average maximum before the intervention;
(123.77 - 120.36) / 21 days = 0.16238; - average growth per day since the intervention;
124.35 - 123.77 = 0.58; - left to pre-intervention average maximum value;
0.58 / 0.16238 = 3.57 ~ 3-4; - days left until the intervention may happen;

Kinda funny, but makes sense, given that in 3-4 days we will have a G20 meeting.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: yenindex-usdjpy.png Size: 39 KB
Vladimir Vereshchak - Making People Wealthier!
  • #20,371
  • Oct 19, 2010 10:22am Oct 19, 2010 10:22am
Quoting zevgma
Hi, guys,

Somebody posted a link to BOJ`s Yen Index a while ago. So, I made two charts, comparing Yen Index with USDJPY starting from 1 of Sep. Please see attached.

It`s notable, that on the day right before the intervention the Index had a value of 124.26 (the maximal for Sept. 2010 is 124.44). The intervention decreased the value to 120.36. The current value is 123.77. Lets do a math:
wouldnt that be way to easy? I believe BoJ will only intervene at a lower level, not the same like before....
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #20,372
  • Oct 19, 2010 10:22am Oct 19, 2010 10:22am
Also, what is the actual composition of the Yen Index Basket?
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #20,373
  • Oct 19, 2010 10:31am Oct 19, 2010 10:31am
Quoting georgem
na-ah... we are going to see more consolidation between 80 and <82, before it will break 82. Downtrend was too fierce all thos past weeks and months... this is NOT OVER!
Tend to agree if up move of USDX halts, there really is no Yen weakness yet....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #20,374
  • Oct 19, 2010 10:32am Oct 19, 2010 10:32am
Will BoJ intervene if 75% of retail is long... think about it...

Also bottom forming is a process.... only after a period of time we can say X was the bottom.
  • #20,375
  • Oct 19, 2010 10:47am Oct 19, 2010 10:47am
Quoting ultra_knight
Will BoJ intervene if 75% of retail is long... think about it...

Also bottom forming is a process.... only after a period of time we can say X was the bottom.
Don't think %-longs is a relevant factor for BOJ
Yes, it takes time to form and recognize a bottom
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #20,376
  • Oct 19, 2010 10:47am Oct 19, 2010 10:47am
Quoting ultra_knight
Will BoJ intervene if 75% of retail is long... think about it...

Also bottom forming is a process.... only after a period of time we can say X was the bottom.
Yes, but will this number ever change in the near future?
If we go say 300 pips lower will there suddenly be much less retail long, say <50%?... I dont think so... there are big buy signals when USD JPY gets lower and lower... Of course many will get stopped out... but many new retail buyers come in the longer USD JPY stays lower or even goes lower...

what is the average "lifetime" of a retail buyer anyway?

If we have a reversal /uptrend in USD JPY sometime soon, I believe the retail buys will stay high at 60-70% for sometime...

But i have to fully grasp this "retail user indicator" yet... it is very complex if you think about it, no?
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #20,377
  • Oct 19, 2010 10:55am Oct 19, 2010 10:55am
Quoting georgem
na-ah... we are going to see more consolidation between 80 and <82, before it will break 82. Downtrend was too fierce all thos past weeks and months... this is NOT OVER!
Agree. I still believe UJ would go down to 80-78 after 11/3 QE. I will wait until then to go long. Once it starts going up, it might be skyrocketing since Yen is very much overvalued anyway...
  • #20,378
  • Oct 19, 2010 11:01am Oct 19, 2010 11:01am
Quoting zevgma
Hi, guys,

Somebody posted a link to BOJ`s Yen Index a while ago. So, I made two charts, comparing Yen Index with USDJPY starting from 1 of Sep. Please see attached.

It`s notable, that on the day right before the intervention the Index had a value of 124.26 (the maximal for Sept. 2010 is 124.44). The intervention decreased the value to 120.36. The current value is 123.77. Lets do a math:

(124.26 + 124.44) / 2 =...
Nice chartwork and math; seems logical BUT BoJ has been anything but logical, predictable nor mindful of what they should be doing, based on their gov'ts commitment.

It's a complete and total crapshoot predicting or even expecting intervention. As ultra_knight said, if a majority of the market is long, they don't necessarily have to throw another $20B+ out the window. One would expect they have the right type of fx professionals to read charts and properly survey the fx landscape worldwide (although I really wonder sometimes). Their time to intervene would be when USDJPY hits a significant upper TL or ceiling (haven't really looked to my charts for that value yet). And as forexgogo states, yen strength will wane & become a thing of the past at some point - I mean, they are the most indebted nation on the planet! (Time for some fun: have you seen The Economist's world debt map - quite cool - http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock )

BUT, the real danger is that once/if they intervene, it's an open call to hedgers, shorters and other opportunists to ride the long train, and then begin the short process all over again. The fx landscape is quite different even today from all of 6 years ago, with algorithms driving things all over the place.

AND, things are complicated by the 79.75 previous decade low that is out there and the wide acknowledgement that the USD is going the way of the Titanic, sometimes slower sometimes more quickly, but likely to make new lows as the years go on. Sure it can retrace hundreds or a 1000 pips up - but that can easily be irrelevant towards a long term trend. So, it's all a quagmire for the BoJ IMO. They'll certainly intervene again, but it's kind of like going outside every night to watch asteroids fall to the earth - you just never know when or where it will happen.
  • #20,379
  • Oct 19, 2010 11:02am Oct 19, 2010 11:02am
SSI from FXCM shows:
GBPJPY stands at 10.78 as nearly 92% of traders are long...
USDJPY stands at 7.97 as nearly 89% of traders are long...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #20,380
  • Oct 19, 2010 11:04am Oct 19, 2010 11:04am
Quoting Forexgogo
...Once it starts going up, it might be skyrocketing since Yen is very much overvalued anyway...
Yep, thats why you have to "keep your ammunition dry"
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
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