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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #20,341
  • Oct 19, 2010 3:45am Oct 19, 2010 3:45am
Trying to be confident:
UTL H1 broken, now looking for 81.7 200-SMA and 82.06 38.2% retracement

H1:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #20,342
  • Oct 19, 2010 3:58am Oct 19, 2010 3:58am
Yen Index is 123.77 for 10-19-10...no intervention in sight ..last time when was intervention index was 120
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #20,343
  • Oct 19, 2010 4:13am Oct 19, 2010 4:13am
Quoting USD-Bear
Trying to be confident:
UTL H1 broken, now looking for 81.7 200-SMA and 82.06 38.2% retracement
Obviously it's too early to say about todays candle.....but if it closes bullish or a doji, it adds more weight to a *possible* bottom being formed. Lot's of news though, like G20, QE2 etc still to come, but it's looking technically possible. I'd be a bit suprised if it doesn't double bottom the all time low though, but it's worth watching.....as I'm sure Noda is doing!!
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,344
  • Oct 19, 2010 4:28am Oct 19, 2010 4:28am
Quoting realjumper
Obviously it's too early to say about todays candle.....but if it closes bullish or a doji, it adds more weight to a *possible* bottom being formed. Lot's of news though, like G20, QE2 etc still to come, but it's looking technically possible. I'd be a bit suprised if it doesn't double bottom the all time low though, but it's worth watching.....as I'm sure Noda is doing!!
There's no doubt that decision time is here for a number of reasons that we've thrown around previously. And so far, most of those pair reversals or walls are doing their job to give a bit more than a smidge of hope that USDJPY could head up. Given the Titanic-like movement of USD over the weeks, a bottom will not be quickly nor easily formed; track this with a weekly chart, not a daily - double, triple bottoms and other tricks sprinkled with higher highs but lower lows will be thrown upon us. Of note, USDJPY did in fact breach it's 100 hour SMA for the first time this month - that's a start.

Key as well to me is the no coincidence rhetoric from Geithner today where he agressively commented that the US will not engage in devaluation and "not in our lifetime will the dollar stop being a reserve currency." He emphasized the strong $ mantra as he said the US will preserve confidence in a 'strong dollar.'

This is posturing and purposeful positioning prior to this weekend's G20. I would expect this to be the start of something bigger. The US will not head into this weekend without a plan and desired outcome that will allow them to look like the strongest party. Yes, they devalue by calling it QE and not money printing, but this is all about marketing.

Interesting to also see yen strength stalling - this too is part of that role reversal, where some of Japan's measures will start taking at least temporary effect. Plus, they have a whole whack more of money to throw at weakening their yen. Note we'll also start hearing more from other G20 folk as they too need to position going into the weekend. They don't want to call it a currency war, but I do. Bring on the volatility, and disagreements!
  • #20,345
  • Oct 19, 2010 4:37am Oct 19, 2010 4:37am
"watching the pair very closely " ... has become something like a national sport or is it a world sport ...Noda is watching .. Kan is watching ... Geithner is watching ... I am watching ...you are watching ...everyone is watching closely .... lol !

anyway , wonder what the VSA exponents have to say about the current ranging .... is this accumulation phase .. double bottom , triple bottom ..?
  • #20,346
  • Oct 19, 2010 4:41am Oct 19, 2010 4:41am
Quoting Beljevina
There's no doubt that decision time is here for a number of reasons that we've thrown around previously. And so far, most of those pair reversals or walls are doing their job to give a bit more than a smidge of hope that USDJPY could head up. Given the Titanic-like movement of USD over the weeks, a bottom will not be quickly nor easily formed; track this with a weekly chart, not a daily - double, triple bottoms and other tricks sprinkled with higher highs but lower lows will be thrown upon us. Of note, USDJPY did in fact breach it's 100 hour SMA...
Well said

I hope that Geithner isn't as big an idiot as he sounds! Posturing and not being able to back it up will get him his ass handed to him on a plate!

Yes, the weekly or even monthly chart is better qualified to indicate a bottom, and there is nothing on either of them that looks remotely like a bottom. The candle close at the end of this week and the outcome of the G20 will tell a story. Having said that, the first sign of a bottom will be on the daily, although the could be many false 'signs' before the true sign is realised. That's why I say that it's worth watching.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,347
  • Oct 19, 2010 4:44am Oct 19, 2010 4:44am
Quoting TheArcher
"watching the pair very closely " ... has become something like a national sport or is it a world sport ...Noda is watching .. Kan is watching ... Geithner is watching ... I am watching ...you are watching ...everyone is watching closely .... lol !

anyway , wonder what the VSA exponents have to say about the current ranging .... is this accumulation phase .. double bottom , triple bottom ..?
Sport or obsession?!?!

I don't know much about VSA, but Malcomb could probably shed some light on the subject. I don't know whether he watches this pair though?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,348
  • Oct 19, 2010 4:48am Oct 19, 2010 4:48am
Commitments of Traders - Yen, Futures Only, October 12, 2010

Non-Commercial

Long 66,463
Short 18,178

Commercial

Long 48,326
Short 98,217

Nonreportable positions

Long 31,635
Short 30,029

FXCM's trade book data suggested yesterday that there was a ratio of
8:1 Long vs Short Ninja (x8 traders shorting Yen otherwise). Ratio is
even greater in case of GBPJPY.

EuroFX

Non-commercials

Long 68,718
Short 27,207

Commercials

Long 73,180
Short 122,239
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #20,349
  • Oct 19, 2010 4:54am Oct 19, 2010 4:54am
Quoting realjumper
Sport or obsession?!?!

I don't know much about VSA, but Malcomb could probably shed some light on the subject. I don't know whether he watches this pair though?

He said a few weeks ago no more UJ but he might still watch it...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #20,350
  • Oct 19, 2010 4:55am Oct 19, 2010 4:55am
yes , i am also watching the daily ...

keeping an eye on the last two tweezers , and the the subsequent small bodies ....

http://://rt2.it-finance.com/FXStree...12874818549692
  • #20,351
  • Oct 19, 2010 4:58am Oct 19, 2010 4:58am
Quoting TheArcher
"watching the pair very closely " ... has become something like a national sport or is it a world sport ...Noda is watching .. Kan is watching ... Geithner is watching ... I am watching ...you are watching ...everyone is watching closely .... lol !

anyway , wonder what the VSA exponents have to say about the current ranging .... is this accumulation phase .. double bottom , triple bottom ..?
It's a given that there's more accumulation happening. Problem is, VSA can rarely be read off a 4 hour or more chart - it'll work on those charts when there are market crashes or extreme upthrusts - Malcolm has said this too. Yes, we can look at a 15M or 1H chart of USDJPY VSA, but it will be a volleyball back & forth game for sometime and be inconclusive. We can tell some accumulation is happening and USD strength is returning by the PA, and yen/yen futures are not shooting up like they were.
  • #20,352
  • Oct 19, 2010 5:00am Oct 19, 2010 5:00am
Quoting mima
He said a few weeks ago no more UJ but he might still watch it...
dit ..dit .. dit .. dot ..dot ... dit ...dit ... dot ..dot ....

(Morse code ... Cheeky )

translated :

calling Malcomb14 ..... calling Malcomb14 ....

cheeky


(this Mac is addictive .. lol )
  • #20,353
  • Oct 19, 2010 5:13am Oct 19, 2010 5:13am
Pretty ain't it...

Bottom appears to be rounding back up, if it can hold 81.3 as new Sup, also having another go at that falling TL.
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  • #20,354
  • Oct 19, 2010 5:19am Oct 19, 2010 5:19am
Quoting FibbinArchie
Pretty ain't it...

Bottom appears to be rounding back up, if it can hold 81.3 as new Sup, also having another go at that falling TL.

I'll buy if it comes back to 81.40-45 area

daily Heiken ashi turned bull
  • #20,355
  • Oct 19, 2010 5:20am Oct 19, 2010 5:20am
Quoting Beljevina
It's a given that there's more accumulation happening. Problem is, VSA can rarely be read off a 4 hour or more chart - it'll work on those charts when there are market crashes or extreme upthrusts - Malcolm has said this too. Yes, we can look at a 15M or 1H chart of USDJPY VSA, but it will be a volleyball back & forth game for sometime and be inconclusive. We can tell some accumulation is happening and USD strength is returning by the PA, and yen/yen futures are not shooting up like they were.
Looking now Yen daily futures there are signs of weakness since last Tuesday....but too slow ...and as you said lot of back and forth game...
if continue to go up I think that important levels would be 81.91 and 82.35
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #20,356
  • Oct 19, 2010 5:25am Oct 19, 2010 5:25am
Quoting realjumper
Obviously it's too early to say about todays candle.....but if it closes bullish or a doji, it adds more weight to a *possible* bottom being formed. Lot's of news though, like G20, QE2 etc still to come, but it's looking technically possible. I'd be a bit suprised if it doesn't double bottom the all time low though, but it's worth watching.....as I'm sure Noda is doing!!
Thanks for your view, not criticizing but why would you be surprised not seeing all time low?
I'm trying to get grip on this pair lately and some of my observations:
1. QE2 chances in US are in price, USDX reached long term LTL @ 76 was respected and is recovering
2. Seldom see in FX and in UJ especially that PA honours what is most obvious.
3. Continuing news about further deploration of Japan economy
4. double bottoms at 80.88
5. relative weakness of YEN during USDX declines
6. I see this pair has it owns character where trend is far more important then volatility.
So I fully agree we have to see further signs of bottoming but under these circumstances I would be rather surprised to see all time lows.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #20,357
  • Oct 19, 2010 5:32am Oct 19, 2010 5:32am
It certainly seems to be a slow burn compared to the other USD pairs, my thinking is that it's responsiveness has been severely dampened by BoJ intervention (initial and on-going small scale), I think if they had just left it be, it would have already rebounded with strength.
  • #20,358
  • Oct 19, 2010 5:37am Oct 19, 2010 5:37am
Quoting realjumper
Yeah you're right.....it was the next day though

http://www.boj.or.jp/en/type/stat/bo...0/fx100916.pdf
I've looked again.
and looking into the other pairs

UJ lost all after intervention
GJ lost all
AJ can't breach the resistance point.
EJ didn't lost much because EUR strength.

So the index idea is very good. once we see EJ going down. and UJ still below 83 BOJ can intervene again. much of the decline was based on USD weakness
Also BOE imho is going to do the exact same thing as FED is doing with Q.E.

Thanks,

DMA
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #20,359
  • Oct 19, 2010 5:40am Oct 19, 2010 5:40am
Quoting USD-Bear
Thanks for your view, not criticizing but why would you be surprised not seeing all time low?
I'm trying to get grip on this pair lately and some of my observations:
1. QE2 chances in US are in price, USDX reached long term LTL @ 76 was respected and is recovering
2. Seldom see in FX and in UJ especially that PA honours what is most obvious.
3. Continuing news about further deploration of Japan economy
4. double bottoms at 80.88
5. relative weakness of YEN during USDX declines
6. I see this pair has it owns character where trend is far more important...
All good points man

The only reason I say that I wouldn't be suprised to see the all time low tested is because there really is nothing to stop it.....other than the recent double tap at the recent bottom. We're so close to it that I wonder whether the big players would push it down there just to call Noda's bluff....again!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,360
  • Oct 19, 2010 5:43am Oct 19, 2010 5:43am
Quoting DMA Trader
I've looked again.
and looking into the other pairs

UJ lost all after intervention
GJ lost all
AJ can't breach the resistance point.
EJ didn't lost much because EUR strength.

So the index idea is very good. once we see EJ going down. and UJ still below 83 BOJ can intervene again. much of the decline was based on USD weakness
Also BOE imho is going to do the exact same thing as FED is doing with Q.E.

Thanks,

DMA
Yup....I think you're right....BOE is going to do exactly that.....but they don't want a currency war either....lol....but collectively they are going to cause one!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
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