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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #20,301
  • Oct 18, 2010 11:05am Oct 18, 2010 11:05am
Quoting Beljevina
There's a definite bear/bull fight happening there ... the downside is calling, but many are looking for a retrace as we approach the Nov 3 QE date. The trend since the double bottom creation is not promising, as we're into a lower low mode, and probably...
Thank you very much for your interesting analysis. As for JP gov's influence upon the market, I don't think it matters too much as of now. Even it goes to 80.00, JP gov would not move until 11/3 US economic turbulence is over.

My guess is, it goes down to 79-80.00, and ranges a little while, then, starts doing up. Once it starts going up, I wouldn't be surprised if it reaches 90.00 in a short period.

Just my two cent
  • #20,302
  • Oct 18, 2010 11:39am Oct 18, 2010 11:39am
Quoting tenogy
Hi everyone, i'm new to this site, i'm not sure where I should post this, but since my question is related to the usdjy pair, so i decided to post here.

I hope this wont interrupt your trading discussions.. but seriously i really need help right now..

I opened a managed account with a local broker here in my country, initially it was going well, with a couple of hundred in earnings, but last week was a disaster. the person who is managing my account bought the usd/jpy pair at 83.86, and when i checked last week, the market went down and i was...

I am sorry to hear your losses, that must have been very consuming your mind... adrenaline too, it sure is not for the faint heart... all traders will have been through this "common forex experience", your situation is really difficult.. before I always wanted to hear what people suggest me to do... but I realized in the forex, and in the world too, what matters is your own decision. When I caught off in this circumstance, before what I did was :
1. cut losses short, (ride profit until sign of reversal);
2. always put stop loss according to your money management;
3. after 10 - 20 consecutive winnings, take a rest for 1-2 days, and see if your system still can work.. stay away from greed...

think of your position like this, if now you are currently holding -$400, and countering the trend.. whats the difference with, lets say, you take the losses and start averaging it? if you expect it to come back to the point of BEP. the result will just be the same.. considering your experience, i can give 2 advices, you will have to find an experienced fund manager in hedging, or take your losses, and develop system in demo, gain your confidence and trade with money management. this won't happen in one night,, it's all a process given by the market to discipline you.
when you say your currency is 1/3 of the US, i think i know where you come from... Southeast Asia, is it not?
oh and one more, do not trade just to follow people trade, if what they say or predict in the forum, news etc was right, why they are not the richest people? i mean betting in the forex is easy, buy or sell, up or down, you always have 50:50 odds, what you are doing is just maximize you profits, and minimize your losses, this will decide your carrier in forex.
Good luck to you...
  • #20,303
  • Oct 18, 2010 1:11pm Oct 18, 2010 1:11pm
Finally I seem to notice some relative weakness of Yen compared to USD.
I know it's petite, but it is something.
Together with the bullish divergence on monthly, it could be a start....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture0062.png Size: 36 KB
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #20,304
  • Oct 18, 2010 2:27pm Oct 18, 2010 2:27pm
Yes they may not raise their hand now, but eventually they have to reveil the data.




Quoting Beljevina
Bear in mind that BoJ historically will not admit to 'failed' interventions or will say no comment ... in this case, they did neither, so, it's doubtful they were involved. (They have also employed at arm's length their emissaries at Kampo for smaller movement, and there were no reports from sources of them being involved).

10-30 pip movements are not indicative of the might - failed or otherwise - of the BoJ. I don't think we'll see anything from them this week certainly, unless the double bottom on USDJPY breaks, and as the next timewaster,...
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #20,305
  • Oct 18, 2010 2:32pm Oct 18, 2010 2:32pm
This old downtrend channel seems rock solid. I doubt it's time for a serious bounce, unless BPJ intervenes again.

http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/4977/chartd.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
  • #20,306
  • Oct 18, 2010 2:41pm Oct 18, 2010 2:41pm
FYI,

According to JP newspaper, both Toyota and Nissan CEO officially stated today that they were seriously concerned about Yen's price hike. They also say that Yen needs to be reasonable rates so that they don't have to move their operation abroad -- this can be a threat to JP gov to manipulate yen.

This may be a huge pressure upon JP politicians. I won't go short in UJ from now on
  • #20,307
  • Oct 18, 2010 2:46pm Oct 18, 2010 2:46pm
Quoting USD-Bear
Finally I seem to notice some relative weakness of Yen compared to USD.
I know it's petite, but it is something.
Together with the bullish divergence on monthly, it could be a start....

Attachment


I have same chart on my wall
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #20,308
  • Edited 3:18pm Oct 18, 2010 3:03pm | Edited 3:18pm
Quoting jsspmk
I have same chart on my wall
well I've entered some longs averaging 81.20 with 81.10 SL
I know SL is ridiculous tight, but the support around 81.13 is so clear and strong today, it might be a spectacular R/R
Further it looks like USDX is trying to establish some short term base
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #20,309
  • Oct 18, 2010 3:19pm Oct 18, 2010 3:19pm
Yeah in my opinion with proper money management, the risk reward ratio for long is extremely attractive. (I've gone long from support too)
  • #20,310
  • Oct 18, 2010 3:47pm Oct 18, 2010 3:47pm
Quoting USD-Bear
Finally I seem to notice some relative weakness of Yen compared to USD.
I know it's petite, but it is something.
Together with the bullish divergence on monthly, it could be a start....

Attachment
Well, looking at USDX, the relative weakness I saw on Yen is only relevant when USDX drops, when it rises its relative strength, so the only thing I can imagine is that certain levels on the downside (81.13) are actively protected.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #20,311
  • Oct 18, 2010 4:01pm Oct 18, 2010 4:01pm
I'm traiding BUY
  • #20,312
  • Oct 18, 2010 4:08pm Oct 18, 2010 4:08pm
Quoting assamusic
I'm traiding BUY
Lets assume it takes a lot of effort to turn a 15 year trend
Wished I shortened GU thats 50 pips against 5 pips on UJ
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #20,313
  • Oct 18, 2010 4:20pm Oct 18, 2010 4:20pm
I short usd/jpy since Oct 05 2010 right now i earn around 250 pips

http://preview.shareapic.net/preview7/023656035.gif
{Promotion Removed}
  • #20,314
  • Oct 18, 2010 4:43pm Oct 18, 2010 4:43pm
May be.., may be...
  • #20,315
  • Oct 18, 2010 7:07pm Oct 18, 2010 7:07pm
Goodness this chart looks like crap... hah.
  • #20,316
  • Oct 18, 2010 7:25pm Oct 18, 2010 7:25pm
Japan Noda: Will Watch Forex Markets With Great Interest
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #20,317
  • Oct 18, 2010 7:31pm Oct 18, 2010 7:31pm
Quoting DMA Trader
Japan Noda: Will Watch Forex Markets With Great Interest
http://www.forexlive.com/140159/all/...will-intervene
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,318
  • Oct 18, 2010 7:51pm Oct 18, 2010 7:51pm
Quoting realjumper
http://www.forexlive.com/140159/all/...will-intervene

Nice one,

I reckon the uncertainty is what they were aiming for and is what they achieved
  • #20,319
  • Oct 18, 2010 8:01pm Oct 18, 2010 8:01pm
Quoting Larseg
Nice one,

I reckon the uncertainty is what they were aiming for and is what they achieved

Goodness... trading this is terrible for me tonight.
  • #20,320
  • Oct 18, 2010 8:10pm Oct 18, 2010 8:10pm
Quoting Venice
Goodness... trading this is terrible for me tonight.

Trading asia session (atleast for me) needs worse risk reward ratio...

And not to forget leave the computer instead of revenge trading...

Whats your system?
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