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Unimportant fellow's equally unimportant journal v2.0

  • #41
  • Oct 15, 2010 7:25am Oct 15, 2010 7:25am
USD/CHF short trade established.

Quoting mizuno
Buy order on EUR/GBP. It will only be activated if the line gets broken AND the main move of the day is changed.
Entry order at 0.88, sl - 0.8780 (below intraday low), TP1 - 0.883 (~95% ADR), TP2 - end of day. Could've sold the dotted line with a stop above the days high, but noticed it too late. The dotted line defines the triangle with correct move sequence.

Attachment
I have a problem with this now. The price nearly made a new day's low, thus rendering my stop level, which was behind a last local low, useless. Oh fuck as I'm writing this the price has nearly taken my order. Ok, I see a low has formed allowing me to place a stop at 0.87716, so I'm reducing my position size accordingly. And now Oanda's platform cannot connect to the server, uhh! I'll update as soon as possible.
  • #42
  • Oct 15, 2010 7:52am Oct 15, 2010 7:52am
Quoting mizuno
USD/CHF short trade established.



I have a problem with this now. The price nearly made a new day's low, thus rendering my stop level, which was behind a last local low, useless. Oh fuck as I'm writing this the price has nearly taken my order. Ok, I see a low has formed allowing me to place a stop at 0.87716, so I'm reducing my position size accordingly. And now Oanda's platform cannot connect to the server, uhh! I'll update as soon as possible.
I'm canceling my EUR/GBP orders as Oanda's spreads have got crazy and the market made a lower low again.
  • #43
  • Oct 15, 2010 8:01am Oct 15, 2010 8:01am
The heck is going on with Oanda?
Check out the M5 charts:

Oanda
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FxPro MT4
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City
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  • #44
  • Oct 15, 2010 8:09am Oct 15, 2010 8:09am
USD/CHF extended it's daily range to 75%, turned around and will stop me out soon. Too bad cause I don't have a level for a reverse. GBP/JPY is at the order entry point, it's range being at 40%, maybe we'll see something better with it.
  • #45
  • Oct 15, 2010 8:57am Oct 15, 2010 8:57am
Quoting mizuno
Some symmetry on AUD/JPY, looks like a diamond, though the move sequence is messy. Not trading this, just watching.

Attachment
It's probably more something like this.
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Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY diamond v2 h3 15102010.PNG Size: 103 KB
  • #46
  • Edited 9:27am Oct 15, 2010 9:05am | Edited 9:27am
Quoting mizuno
USD/CHF extended it's daily range to 75%, turned around and will stop me out soon. Too bad cause I don't have a level for a reverse. GBP/JPY is at the order entry point, it's range being at 40%, maybe we'll see something better with it.
Stopped out on my USD/CHF short. Just realized my mistake. Now it's quite clear what I should've chosen as my TP and Reverse point.
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Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf 18.1 sell stop out m15 15102010.PNG Size: 91 KB
  • #47
  • Oct 15, 2010 1:20pm Oct 15, 2010 1:20pm
With my buy trade on GBP/JPY nearly coming to my stop, it's been a rough start for the first week of my new journal. But things will get better with time. Updates and ideas for the next week to follow on Sunday. Now it is time to call it a week and go out with my friends and have some fun. Time to recreate!

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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY 18.1 buy almost stopped out M15 15102010.PNG Size: 89 KB


Inserted Video
  • #48
  • Oct 18, 2010 4:35am Oct 18, 2010 4:35am
When I finished my analysis it was late already so I thought I'll go to sleep rather than post my ideas. Better late than never.

Two possible long term setups:
EUR/GBP seems to be forming a channel/wedge like formation. I dislike the first touch of the bottom border. But the top border is probably good on it's own as it has a high in 2008, then 2009, and now we're waiting for one in 2010. Since this is such a long term projection I will definitely trade this formation.
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Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp 8h possible channel 2008-9-10 18102010.jpg Size: 194 KB


This formation on GBP/CHF is similar. I like the three touches on the bottom border what gives more validity to this pattern than the EUR/GBP one. The plan would be to sell the upper border, but there's a high probability that the bottom border will be invalidated (as the price is so close) and the formation will lose its meaning, except for the top border on it's own, like on EUR/GBP.
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  • #49
  • Oct 18, 2010 4:45am Oct 18, 2010 4:45am
Here's a beautiful picture on EUR/DKK. I do not trade this pair, as the spread is gigantic. I only watch it to see how great the correlation is between EUR/USD and USD/DKK.
The two lines are completely parallel. Touch on the top border and then we might see a break to the downside, as it has three touches already, but we can never know for sure what will happen.

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  • #50
  • Oct 18, 2010 4:59am Oct 18, 2010 4:59am
Quoting mizuno
I'm canceling my EUR/GBP orders as Oanda's spreads have got crazy and the market made a lower low again.
Here's what happened with Friday's EUR/GBP setup. I was expecting a break to the upside, while the formation was not complete. I had a perfect opportunity to sell the upper border with a stop outside the day's range, and I missed it because I was expecting a break to happen. I saw three touches on the upper border and I thought that was it, the formation will now be broken, but if we look at the sequence of the moves we can clearly see that the first two touches of the upper border should have been counted as a single one. Live and learn!
In the end I was also upset to do anything with it as Oanda had problems with it's feed/platform connection with the time, so that did not help my state of mind either.
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  • #51
  • Oct 18, 2010 5:17am Oct 18, 2010 5:17am
Quoting mizuno
With my buy trade on GBP/JPY nearly coming to my stop, it's been a rough start for the first week of my new journal. But things will get better with time. Updates and ideas for the next week to follow on Sunday. Now it is time to call it a week and go out with my friends and have some fun. Time to recreate!

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Was stopped out on Sunday open.
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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY 18.1 buy stopped out M30 18102010.PNG Size: 104 KB


This week I'll try 18.4 instead if I see an opportunity, as 18.1 does not offer as good R:R. It is quite clear that last week I over-traded. It was the first week of my new journal, and I was eager to make trades, thus I was not picky enough, and the number of trades caused me to miss some clues that were present, like the USD/CHF 18.1 sell.
  • #52
  • Oct 18, 2010 6:03am Oct 18, 2010 6:03am
Quoting mizuno
It's probably more something like this.
Attachment
Not sure how the borders should be drawn, the following drawing defines the move sequence of the right hand side of the triangle correctly.
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Though I can tell you one problem that I have with it. I dislike the left side of the diamond, the part before the pattern starts. Ideally here's how I'd like to see it:
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  • #53
  • Oct 18, 2010 7:00am Oct 18, 2010 7:00am
We have a fully formed intraweek channel on AUD/CAD. As of right now, I can sell right now with a 20 pip stop above the day's high. But it is against the main move so I'm not sure of myself. Rather, I'll wait until the price comes to the bottom border and then trade the break out if there will be a level to place stops. (Igrok does not recommend trading the break of an upper border in a rising channel and the break of a lower border in a falling channel).

M15 view, cause M30 does not look as good
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M30, so that you can see the whole pattern
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Also it looks like we had a perfect H&S last week, though it was not at a bottom of a trend.
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And one last thing. If they don't fix this spike by tomorrow I'll drop them a line.
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Oh boy I already think I'm going to regret not selling the top of the channel.
  • #54
  • Oct 18, 2010 6:49pm Oct 18, 2010 6:49pm
The following is not exactly per Igrok teachings, but I've seen other senior members do such style trades, and I'm willing to risk. I think the two spikes might be a reliable level for stops, and the single local spike is good for entry. Of course I am not sure at all about this, but it is much more exciting to make a decision and trade on it rather than to stay aside and watch.
The tiny 17 pip stop makes it all the more attractive. Both targets based on H2 divergences: 82.25 and 85.25. Entry - 81.02 SL - 80.85. Let's see if anything profitable can come out of this.
I could also trade the inside triangle like pattern, but as the bottom border has so many touches (if you don't look at the move sequence inside the pattern), I think it's very likely to be broken and not worth trading with the R:R so small.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy symmetry brv style trade m30 19102010.PNG Size: 97 KB
  • #55
  • Oct 18, 2010 7:00pm Oct 18, 2010 7:00pm
Looks like a H&S on EUR/USD. The two lines are completely symmetrical thus both shoulders are of equal length. Very nice picture, though I'm not a fan of these formations at the moment so I won't plan a trade on it, especially since it's not at a bottom of a trend.
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD H&S 19102010.PNG Size: 97 KB
  • #56
  • Oct 19, 2010 9:50am Oct 19, 2010 9:50am
Quoting mizuno
Looks like a H&S on EUR/USD. The two lines are completely symmetrical thus both shoulders are of equal length. Very nice picture, though I'm not a fan of these formations at the moment so I won't plan a trade on it, especially since it's not at a bottom of a trend.
Attachment
Here's what it looks like now. Doesn't look as beautiful now, does it? If I were to enter this ideally I would've entered at the projection of the right shoulder. But again I do not like these type of patterns, and it would've been a long shot to trade the right shoulder of such a half formed pattern when it's in a middle of nowhere. A better possibility would've been entering at the break of the neckline, with a fixed distance stop. A reverse would've saved the situation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD H&S outcome 19102010.PNG Size: 89 KB
  • #57
  • Oct 19, 2010 9:54am Oct 19, 2010 9:54am
Some good setups were missed today.

Exhibit A:
This triangle was a bit unusual in it's shape, but the move sequence is correct.
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Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf triangle ver1 H1 19102010.PNG Size: 95 KB


Or it could've been drawn intra-weekly. The upper border was defined with three touches, giving an opportunity to trade the break-out.
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Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf triangle ver2 H1 19102010.PNG Size: 91 KB




Though some bad setups were missed as well. Well it wasn't a bad setup, but the outcome would've been not so good.
Quoting mizuno
We have a fully formed intraweek channel on AUD/CAD. As of right now, I can sell right now with a 20 pip stop above the day's high. But it is against the main move so I'm not sure of myself. Rather, I'll wait until the price comes to the bottom border and then trade the break out if there will be a level to place stops. (Igrok does not recommend trading the break of an upper border in a rising channel and the break of a lower border in a falling channel).

M15 view, cause M30 does not look as good
Attachment

M30, so that you can...
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Click to Enlarge Name: audcad intraweek channel M15 19102010.PNG Size: 104 KB
  • #58
  • Oct 19, 2010 10:05am Oct 19, 2010 10:05am
Quoting mizuno
The following is not exactly per Igrok teachings, but I've seen other senior members do such style trades, and I'm willing to risk. I think the two spikes might be a reliable level for stops, and the single local spike is good for entry. Of course I am not sure at all about this, but it is much more exciting to make a decision and trade on it rather than to stay aside and watch.
The tiny 17 pip stop makes it all the more attractive. Both targets based on H2 divergences: 82.25 and 85.25. Entry - 81.02 SL - 80.85. Let's see if anything profitable...
Ahh, ahh, ahh. Everything it's so obviously obvious after the fact. I was expecting a break to the downside as the support had so many approaches. What I did not realize that I could try buying it with a stop just below the support. The price made a third touch of a descending trendline, if it does not get broken today it will offer an opportunity to buy the break-out. I don't want to trade the break-out today as I think the price has to retrace for a while first, before allowing a technical opportunity to trade. I could be wrong of course. Ideally, I'd like to see the price retracing from the TL down to the bottom, take my order (LOL!), and then break the trendline to the upside.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy trendline 3rd touch H3 19102010.PNG Size: 100 KB
  • #59
  • Oct 19, 2010 10:43am Oct 19, 2010 10:43am
The next trading opportunity to sell AUD/CAD. Currenty I have a problem with establishing a target for this. There is a divergence on H11/H12 (talk about non standard TF, LOL), pointing to 0.8866 but that seems like an unrealistic target for such a trend-line. Or a H4 divergence but it's barely 100 pips above the H12 divergence so that doesn't help much, still seems unrealistic. A few other options that I have is to target one full day's average range (meh), leave the trade open until end of day, or leave the trade until end of week.

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Click to Enlarge Name: audcad intramonth TL H3 19102010.PNG Size: 109 KB
  • #60
  • Edited 10:35am Oct 20, 2010 9:01am | Edited 10:35am
Quoting mizuno
Ahh, ahh, ahh. Everything it's so obviously obvious after the fact. I was expecting a break to the downside as the support had so many approaches. What I did not realize that I could try buying it with a stop just below the support. The price made a third touch of a descending trendline, if it does not get broken today it will offer an opportunity to buy the break-out. I don't want to trade the break-out today as I think the price has to retrace for a while first, before allowing a technical opportunity...


I'm at a loss what to do with USD/JPY. It has a support with 4 touches, but at the same time the support is providing an opportunity to enter on weekly 18.4. I guess it's best to stay aside for now. If the support gets broken then I have an order at 81.02 with stop below the month's low. Also I haven't traded weekly or monthly 18.4 even once, so I'm not sure if the picture that I'm seeing is in favour for a 18.4 trade. Or I could buy right now at the basis of weekly 18.4 with a stop below the months low, but the R:R is not as attractive, and if the main move of the week is changed then there's no point in staying in a long 18.4. Let us wait and see what happens next. I could also try selling the support with intraday stops, this would be in the direction of medium/long term trend, but this is in conflict with my buy plan, which is obviously against the trend and all that but I think it offers better R:R as it would be a swing trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY what to do support to be broken or 18.4 20102010.PNG Size: 100 KB


Edit: was stopped out on my long. And it formed a new support. If my stop was a few pips lower I'd still be in the trade. Damn.
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