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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #20,281
  • Oct 17, 2010 11:52pm Oct 17, 2010 11:52pm
Quoting TheArcher
http://rt2.it-finance.com/FXStreetLi...12873761100840

http://rt2.it-finance.com/FXStreetLi...12873761100840


well, can't see the chart here ... hope the url works .

anyway , my thoughts :

1) it hit the bottom support twice at 80.89 giving credence to a double bottom on the hourly.

2) forming a nice symmetrical triangle

3) can break either way , up or down

4) good for about 30 pips either way in near term IF breakout happens with heavy volume ... (this chart does...
Why don't you install XP on your MAC?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,282
  • Oct 18, 2010 12:15am Oct 18, 2010 12:15am
Quoting realjumper
Why don't you install XP on your MAC?


pressed for time ... !

hardly scratched the surface of operating the Mac ! .... let alone doing a major transplant ... !

cheeky
  • #20,283
  • Oct 18, 2010 12:23am Oct 18, 2010 12:23am
Quoting TheArcher
pressed for time ... !

hardly scratched the surface of operating the Mac ! .... let alone doing a major transplant ... !

cheeky
When you get time, give it a shot......it's easy and there's tons of stuff online to walk you through it
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,284
  • Oct 18, 2010 12:28am Oct 18, 2010 12:28am
Quoting TheArcher
Quoting realjumper
Why don't you install XP on your MAC?
pressed for time ... !

hardly scratched the surface of operating the Mac ! .... let alone doing a major transplant ... !

cheeky
Even though I wish to get rid of Windows OS forever I still can't, so I use VMWare on my Mac with an XP installed. Runs sweet!
  • #20,285
  • Oct 18, 2010 12:35am Oct 18, 2010 12:35am
realjumper


kandarv



thanks !

  • #20,286
  • Oct 18, 2010 1:00am Oct 18, 2010 1:00am
JPY is getting strong to all other currencies, U/Y in particular. Seems Yen is cornered.... which JP gov is afraid of. But JP gov is unlikely to do anything until G20 is over.

Your thoughts?
  • #20,287
  • Oct 18, 2010 1:07am Oct 18, 2010 1:07am
Quoting Fibo_trader
Before that it can move down to 81.16. (15min fibo). Im short for that with SL at BE 81.40.
pretty good call decent bounce in around 8112,

BoJ small scale intervention has dampened the reversal momentum imo, that's why it's not reacting like the other pairs...
  • #20,288
  • Oct 18, 2010 1:17am Oct 18, 2010 1:17am
Quoting Forexgogo
JPY is getting strong to all other currencies, U/Y in particular. Seems Yen is cornered.... which JP gov is afraid of. But JP gov is unlikely to do anything until G20 is over.

Your thoughts?
If you look at COTs there is a 2:1 short vs long in commercials, Japan said that it is strongly against speculative based moves, BOJ is very likely to do something about it especially the closer we get to 80 the more political it will become.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #20,289
  • Oct 18, 2010 2:16am Oct 18, 2010 2:16am
[quote=jsspmk; BOJ is very likely to do something about it especially the closer we get to 80 the more political it will become.[/quote]

I agree half way and still doubt that JP gov is able to do anything more than small occasional interventions. I say we'll see 80.00 pretty soon.
  • #20,290
  • Oct 18, 2010 2:28am Oct 18, 2010 2:28am
Quoting Forexgogo
I agree half way and still doubt that JP gov is able to do anything more than small occasional interventions. I say we'll see 80.00 pretty soon.
We may indeed see 80 & a quick flush below, but it is unrealistic to expect all time low to cave in upon 1st touch, 1st touch based breakouts normally are served as 'sucker traps', especially so when it is an all time low. But I also partly agree that BOJ's actions will be limited, to stop a macro down trend yes actions will be limited, but to create a 1000+ pip bounce - no, they have more than enough resources to rattle commercial buyers' cages.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #20,291
  • Oct 18, 2010 2:48am Oct 18, 2010 2:48am
  •  Megara
  • | Joined Sep 2009 | Status: MOMENTUM'S THE GODFATHER OF TRADING | 759 Posts
I see Dollar Index heading up and make quite a U turn. Could UJ follow along? Good news for long. I have stop shorting. May I hear your 2 cents
Shake it off!Lick the Wound,Prey Again!
  • #20,292
  • Oct 18, 2010 2:51am Oct 18, 2010 2:51am
I think there were smaller interventions on 14&15 October
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #20,293
  • Oct 18, 2010 3:00am Oct 18, 2010 3:00am
  •  Megara
  • | Joined Sep 2009 | Status: MOMENTUM'S THE GODFATHER OF TRADING | 759 Posts
If the dollar continuing going down isn't this might shoot up the oil and other commodities. The price of oil per barrel might so expensive and every basic human needs going to be so expensive as well which I think is very bad for all economy and how does US going to recover as the 1st brother.

Here in my home country, the oil increase a few cents and my favourite bread shoot up 30%
Shake it off!Lick the Wound,Prey Again!
  • #20,294
  • Oct 18, 2010 6:07am Oct 18, 2010 6:07am
Quoting jsspmk
I think there were smaller interventions on 14&15 October
Hm, no i dont think so, it seems to habe been Buy-Signals because we are near a descending trendline. You mean this small double bottom last week?

No, I would definitely not say that that was intervention, but first awakening of new buyers
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #20,295
  • Oct 18, 2010 9:26am Oct 18, 2010 9:26am
I still believe 80.8X is the bottom for this year...
  • #20,296
  • Oct 18, 2010 9:35am Oct 18, 2010 9:35am
Quoting jsspmk
I think there were smaller interventions on 14&15 October
Bear in mind that BoJ historically will not admit to 'failed' interventions or will say no comment ... in this case, they did neither, so, it's doubtful they were involved. (They have also employed at arm's length their emissaries at Kampo for smaller movement, and there were no reports from sources of them being involved).

10-30 pip movements are not indicative of the might - failed or otherwise - of the BoJ. I don't think we'll see anything from them this week certainly, unless the double bottom on USDJPY breaks, and as the next timewaster, err, I mean G20 discussion get underway this Friday.

There are reports of some big institutions buying USDJPY - bear in mind they don't usually do that on margin, so drawdown isn't as huge a concern for them as it might be for some of us. As an example, Soros bought (at least) tens of millions up over 85.
  • #20,297
  • Oct 18, 2010 10:00am Oct 18, 2010 10:00am
I wonder why UJ is in such an inactive state compared to other pairs. Is there still an anticipation for intervention floating? Or some kind of energy is accumulating for a big downward break? (it is certainly not upward, I believe)

Your thoughts?
  • #20,298
  • Edited 10:54am Oct 18, 2010 10:14am | Edited 10:54am
Quoting Forexgogo
I wonder why UJ is in such an inactive state compared to other pairs. Is there still an anticipation for intervention floating? Or some kind of energy is accumulating for a big downward break? (it is certainly not upward, I believe)

Your thoughts?
There's a definite bear/bull fight happening there ... the downside is calling, but many are looking for a retrace as we approach the Nov 3 QE date. The trend since the double bottom creation is not promising, as we're into a lower low mode, and probably heading for a triple bottom. We've really gotta get above 81.64 to give any credit to the bulls. In the meantime, the range will tighten further, and odds IMO are a break to the downside - that will raise the ire of the BoJ, but they've proven they don't have the independence or guts to intervene again, not enact other more drastic policies. Mind you, their political and economic landscape is changing quickly with significant concerns being voiced by their flagship corporations.
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  • #20,299
  • Oct 18, 2010 10:42am Oct 18, 2010 10:42am
http://rt2.it-finance.com/FXStreetLi...12874159798340


will it be bearish descending triangle breaking downwards ?
  • #20,300
  • Oct 18, 2010 10:50am Oct 18, 2010 10:50am
Let's see if we can hold 81.15'ish.
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