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  • #307,981
  • Edited 8:47am Oct 16, 2010 7:49am | Edited 8:47am
Good morning from miami

I want to apologize to all here for my behavior, ( childish ) and for my english..........

Even further to Gator that I argue with him about the fibo's........and I was wrong, I was running the fibo from the first fall from the first high to the secong low and that is why it was giving us diferent 50% numbers, it should be from the first high to the first low and from the secon high to the second low, sorry about that Gator, won't happen again you where right it was 23XX the first low......
The Chonchy
  • #307,982
  • Oct 16, 2010 8:06am Oct 16, 2010 8:06am
my view on the eur/usd..
1.444 is my confluince resistance line.
Although i will wait till rejection and LH and LL before i look for entry.
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  • #307,983
  • Edited 8:57am Oct 16, 2010 8:43am | Edited 8:57am
Quoting longshot_nl
my view on the eur/usd..
1.444 is my confluince resistance line.
Although i will wait till rejection and LH and LL before i look for entry.
very nice chart

my final view of the yurow in this weekly chart is simple price is not going to come from 1875 to stop here and come back without visiting the UTL and 61.8% fibo so it may retrace all it wants but is going to give a shot at this congruence of events, top of the BB, UTL and 61.8% fibo, a retrace to the yellow line is in order but after that, up, me think, my 2 cents, I could be wrong, being there before, so sorry if I'm wrong next week, if it goes under the yellow line then I was wrong, next week

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The Chonchy
  • #307,984
  • Oct 16, 2010 8:58am Oct 16, 2010 8:58am
Quoting brighty3k
please how do u calculate the percentage?
u talked about 2% and then 50%
It hovered around 45% long when NY opened and then it went to 47% right after the sudden drop. (47% traders are long, 53% are short). I started reading these numbers from the FF website here once or twice a day (manually) and plotting them into the chart a few weeks ago.

Maybe I will automate this and make an indicator that does this automatically.
  • #307,985
  • Oct 16, 2010 9:06am Oct 16, 2010 9:06am
Hi everybody,

hope you have a nice Saturday and Weekend :-)

And I hope, that everyone made a few pips yesterday.

I think we will make Sunday night a new low to conclude blue wave 1 down.

A good opportunity to enter short again may be between 1.4038 and 1.4069


Target for the whole first wave down (red 1) may be very likely around 3672 (MM 6/8 Res P=256 on 4h chart).

End of wave 2th are, out of my sight, the best starting points for shorting, because up to that level one can get a very good grasp on wave structure and personality.

For a safe short, one would recommend a stop at the start of wave 1.

When price runs above this point, the whole count is invalidated and the uptrend has not ended.


See my blog for count update when interested.


Have a nice day,

Markus
  • #307,986
  • Oct 16, 2010 9:18am Oct 16, 2010 9:18am
Quoting chonchy
you need help in deed, price is going to 4447 eather you wnat it or not, today tomorrow or next month but is going with english or not english, if it dosen't go, I don't trade no more becasue the system is broken, that is why they are call trend line on higher time frames, if you can't see that far i'm sorry for you pal, and this is the end of the argument, you keep your analisis I keep mine but stop insulting my intelingence with sarcastic posts and "LOL's" end it now you keep your vsa tread and leave me along with my crazines, you post I post,...
oh a few weeks now is it ???. I thought you entering 1.3950 and then 1.3900 with target 1.4447...make your mind up and stop being confused. lol .. joking of course

QE2 is built into the market. IF nov 3rd meeting of fomc there is no 1 trillion on the table then eu and gu are going to go into a nose dive of 500 pip or more. There is so much expectation of qe2 that a small hint of it not happening will send the eu and gu into tail spin... why do you think that 200 pip drop was there yesterday... I guess it had nothing to do with heli ben being non committal on qe2 in his speech. There was even 4.7 billion of pomo in the market yesterday and that did nothing to drive up us stock markets or eu / gu


Thoughts are eu bounces around in some form of channel 1.4100 to 1.3850 area , then after NO qe2 comes or it is mentioed in fomc minutes of being trickled into the market over time , 1.3500 to 1.3400 ... 50% fib retracement of daily up move.

The reason for channel top .. distribution and profit taking.

Anyway ... these are just my thoughts and it is good to have bulls and bears in the market , otherwise the market will not work. You are still a bull and I am starting to see weakness on the daily , not a full bear yet BUT weakness is there.

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #307,987
  • Oct 16, 2010 9:37am Oct 16, 2010 9:37am
Quoting malcolmb14
oh a few weeks now is it ???. I thought you entering 1.3950 and then 1.3900 with target 1.4447...make your mind up and stop being confused. lol .. joking of course

QE2 is built into the market. IF nov 3rd meeting of fomc there is no 1 trillion on the table then eu and gu are going to go into a nose dive of 500 pip or more. There is so much expectation of qe2 that a small hint of it not happening will send the eu and gu into tail spin... why do you think that 200 pip drop was there yesterday... I guess it had nothing to do with heli ben being non...
malcolmb, I just don't know what make you think I'm confuse, if you are confuse read my posts a bit, I'm a scalper, I trade the 1M, 3M and 6M charts, I scalp for 1 or more pips, I offer my analisis here like everybody ealse, I never sai the price was going to go to 4447 at once that is a nonsence and is ilogical I only say that price was going to bounce of that red EMA and it did, so, why don't you just leave it there man, please, I beg you, just post your analisis and leave me along, I'm not upset or none of that I just want you to stop showing off with me and my posts, just grab somebody ealse post, or don't just post your analisis without bothering no one, especialy me please, I beg you, thanks in advance, I don't like arguements for sealy things, if I'm wrong who cares, if you want to be right even before next week so be it, but please lest just stop this sealy contest, so please lets just stay friends and quit this, thanks again and I hope you are right and price drops tomorrow 1000 pips (I'll be short then because I'm just long now with a stop in +1, so, do you understand that?)

The Chonchy
  • #307,988
  • Oct 16, 2010 9:38am Oct 16, 2010 9:38am
There is one element in Bernanke´s speech that every single currency dealer has understood immediately and I can only advise members of this forum to read themselves the speeches of FED board members thoroughly because the lousy media outlets hide ALWAYS IMPORTANT FACTS :

Ben Bernanke speech 15th of October 2010

Source : http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20101015a.htm

However, possible costs must be weighed against the potential benefits of nonconventional policies. One disadvantage of asset purchases relative to conventional monetary policy is that we have much less experience in judging the economic effects of this policy instrument, which makes it challenging to determine the appropriate quantity and pace of purchases and to communicate this policy response to the public. These factors have dictated that the FOMC proceed with some CAUTION in deciding whether to engage in further purchases of longer-term securities.

I think that BEN BERNANKE is fully aware of the implications of AGGRESSIVE further QE easing and that his remarks are a full attack on market participants who were expecting the FED to go "all in".

No, his speech is DEFINITELY a BRAKE for all those expecting aggressive QE. He has put on the handbrake !

This is an announcement for QE LITE.

Conclusion : expect USD strength.
________________________________ Errare humanum est
  • #307,989
  • Oct 16, 2010 10:08am Oct 16, 2010 10:08am
I wonder what "bait and switch" they'll dream up next...
  • #307,990
  • Oct 16, 2010 10:11am Oct 16, 2010 10:11am
[quote=MisterTrader;4100937]There is one element in Bernanke´s speech that every single currency dealer has understood immediately and I can only advise members of this forum to read themselves the speeches of FED board members thoroughly because the lousy media outlets hide ALWAYS IMPORTANT FACTS :

Ben Bernanke speech 15th of October 2010

Source : http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20101015a.htm

However, possible costs must be weighed against the potential benefits of nonconventional policies. One disadvantage of asset purchases relative to conventional monetary policy is that we have much less experience in judging the economic effects of this policy instrument, which makes it challenging to determine the appropriate quantity and pace of purchases and to communicate this policy response to the public. These factors have dictated that the FOMC proceed with some CAUTION in deciding whether to engage in further purchases of longer-term securities.

I think that BEN BERNANKE is fully aware of the implications of AGGRESSIVE further QE easing and that his remarks are a full attack on market participants who were expecting the FED to go "all in".

No, his speech is DEFINITELY a BRAKE for all those expecting aggressive QE. He has put on the handbrake !

This is an announcement for QE LITE.

Conclusion : expect USD strength.
[/quote..

maybe ....maybe ....look like bull strong next weeks
  • #307,991
  • Oct 16, 2010 11:32am Oct 16, 2010 11:32am
Quoting MisterTrader
No, his speech is DEFINITELY a BRAKE for all those expecting aggressive QE. He has put on the handbrake !

That could indeed be the case. Equally plausible is the premise that they are just using the handbrake to slow the USD slide - they seek an "orderly" devaluation. Either way, and with speculation about the upcoming ramifications of Seoul, expect more volatility.

Fine with me.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #307,992
  • Oct 16, 2010 11:36am Oct 16, 2010 11:36am
looking forward to sell EURUSD this coming week, Nice divergence on daily, 4hr and 1 hr charts
エンジョイライフ！
  • #307,993
  • Oct 16, 2010 12:00pm Oct 16, 2010 12:00pm
Quoting chonchy
Good morning from miami

I want to apologize to all here for my behavior, ( childish ) and for my english..........

Even further to Gator that I argue with him about the fibo's........and I was wrong, I was running the fibo from the first fall from the first high to the secong low and that is why it was giving us diferent 50% numbers, it should be from the first high to the first low and from the secon high to the second low, sorry about that Gator, won't happen again you where right it was 23XX the first low......
who's right don't matter. we are all wrong some time. and get lucky other times. if i post something its usually on a bigger tf unless stated. if im wrong then im wrong. if wrong, consider the opposite is true. i don't say it but i hope its implied. for every action there is a reaction (just the opposite.) If i post something bullish/bearish in a scenario and it is wrong.. needless to say i am probably on the other side of the post with my trade. if it aint black, its white. if its gray don't trade. you can do all the analysis you want and be 100 % correct. and then bb or some figure head can change the trajectory of the direction 180 degrees. if your right 70/80 % of the time your making money.. if your right 50 % of the time your making money. that's of course with proper m/m.... if your right 80% of the time w/o proper m/m you are losing money. the best paid gamblers in the world only make about 3%. with the 3% the build huge billion $ buildings and offer free booze/hookers ect. subtract this and its less then 3%....think about this before you let a green trade turn red. i bet your broker is a 3 percenter..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #307,994
  • Oct 16, 2010 12:01pm Oct 16, 2010 12:01pm
Hey!

I`m curious if the Eur/Usd will break the 1.4200 level next weeks. It`s an important Fibonacci level (as seen on my charts) and i`m sure that big players have definitely placed some stop loss in that area.

What do you think? Could this be the end of this upward trend?

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  • #307,995
  • Oct 16, 2010 12:43pm Oct 16, 2010 12:43pm
Quoting Larseg
Yes it was a bit too steep, not sure how big this pullback could be so pocketing 20-80 pips along the ride either way is still going to be my target...

Looking at the USD index I would be 70% surprised if we didn't see 75 and 40% surprised if we won't see 74.

As it goes for the Euro I would suspect it to be more overbought at this level (at this time last year it was around 55k at 1.4800 for non-commercials and now it is "only" 37k at 1.4000).

Would still not let go of my Stop loss though
simple #... with a limited sl for shorts eu.. 76.88 on usdx... above it long usd.. below it dont do nothing unless its against the tl.. then you can long usd.. if broken the opposite. but it has to be broken with more then a toe. it closed above at 76.95... with a hell of a wick on the (doji) weekly..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #307,996
  • Oct 16, 2010 1:08pm Oct 16, 2010 1:08pm
Quoting realjumper
Yeah it could....however the bulls are running out of steam....maybe having a rest before the next push, or not. A gain of 129 in 7 days is nothing to write home about!

Having said that, this yellow channel imo, has been too steep to carry on with.....the green channel looks much better.....but, a break below (arrows) might change the whole outlook.
A very good post. I was saying something similar that the angle is not sustanable and we are switching to a more sustanable trend but still up.

so from a sharp 42 to one below 20
IF i am right support should be at levels like 1.3965 1.388
of course they are dynamic so it will go up.

maybe 12-17 angle. we'll see.

thanks

DMA
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #307,997
  • Oct 16, 2010 1:23pm Oct 16, 2010 1:23pm
Quoting DMA Trader
A very good post. I was saying something similar that the angle is not sustanable and we are switching to a more sustanable trend but still up.

so from a sharp 42 to one below 20
IF i am right support should be at levels like 1.3965 1.388
of course they are dynamic so it will go up.

maybe 12-17 angle. we'll see.

thanks

DMA
Best 2 posts i read it on weekend U and realjumper
Keep the great work guys
For me sideline and I'm not in rush
  • #307,998
  • Oct 16, 2010 1:24pm Oct 16, 2010 1:24pm
Quoting MisterTrader
There is one element in Bernanke´s speech that every single currency dealer has understood immediately and I can only advise members of this forum to read themselves the speeches of FED board members thoroughly because the lousy media outlets hide ALWAYS IMPORTANT FACTS :

Ben Bernanke speech 15th of October 2010

Source : http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20101015a.htm

[color=Black][b][color=Red]However, possible costs must be weighed...
I think we need to understand that there is risk of liquidity trap . That means that FED is out options. So we don't want that thing to happen. Anyway so my opinion is that we are going to see a lot of talking before taking action going forward by BB like rates can't stay low for another 2 years or stuff like that. I lot of USD weakness was done only by talking not the actual q.e.

But Q.E. is coming there is no other option maybe there is a smaller than markets expect so that should help the USD. but Q.E. is coming. Look what's happening in mortgages right now. all the foreclosure earnings. look how banks are going down just like 2008. Q.E. is not a joke. USD strength can only come if there is another crisis and the other country's failed to act as quickly as FED. that's what happened in 2008. By the time Crisis hit FED was lowering rates, ECB raise them and then slowly going down. By the time everybody knew we are going to have deflation USD was going to the roof.

anyway - mho
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #307,999
  • Oct 16, 2010 1:26pm Oct 16, 2010 1:26pm
Quoting malcolmb14
oh a few weeks now is it ???. I thought you entering 1.3950 and then 1.3900 with target 1.4447...make your mind up and stop being confused. lol .. joking of course

QE2 is built into the market. IF nov 3rd meeting of fomc there is no 1 trillion on the table then eu and gu are going to go into a nose dive of 500 pip or more. There is so much expectation of qe2 that a small hint of it not happening will send the eu and gu into tail spin... why do you think that 200 pip drop was there yesterday... I guess it had nothing to do with heli ben being...


Hi Malcom,

I see it your way. Sentiment is way too much one sided. Only 3% USD bulls are left. Only sentiment is the driver. And with 97% of traders already placed their bets on long EUR /short USD, where for heavens sake should the fuel for a sustained rallye come from?

I can imagine, that we will have a wave on minute degree down to 1.36 or so, and the following wave 2 may retrace very high (up to 100%) before till next FOMC meeting. Then hard down. Right now there is disbelief by the bulls, but wait till panic sets in......

On the other hand:

Out of Elliott Wave sight: We might very well see a last new top, because interpretation of the upmove is open for discussion. We can see a new top.

Albeit the 200pips drop the waves were not so clearly impulsive than one would wish for. I had a hard time to find a count that fits on most timeframes.

Maybe it is the disbelief of the bulls what is backed in what makes it look a little bit of corretive, but maybe it is something else.

But the god news is: we have a line in the sand. It is the top @ 1.4158

If it gets taken out, we see at least 1.42


I try to always trade what I see rather than wath I believe......
  • #308,000
  • Oct 16, 2010 1:26pm Oct 16, 2010 1:26pm
Quoting egkid
Best 2 posts i read it on weekend U and realjumper
Keep the great work guys
For me sideline and I'm not in rush
hey man
thanks. we'll see if we are right or not.

i went long on Friday so i put my money where my mouth is.

see you later. have a nice weekend.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
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