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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #20,221
  • Oct 15, 2010 12:41pm Oct 15, 2010 12:41pm
Not sure about the dbl bottom at 81.05/ Drew a line for u at that level


[
quote=TheArcher;4100046]can someone please post a 1hr and 4 hr chart please ?

with Macd, Histogram and Stocs (default)

is that a double bottom forming on the 1 hr ? (around 81.05 ? )

thanks

(still haven't go around with my Mac )[/quote]
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1hr 10 15 10.png Size: 61 KB
  • #20,222
  • Oct 15, 2010 12:54pm Oct 15, 2010 12:54pm
Quoting 13.1 Runner
Not sure about the dbl bottom at 81.05/ Drew a line for u at that level
thanks .

81.05 was a rough estimate ...

well , it is ranging for now ... 81.00 seems like the bottom for now ...
  • #20,223
  • Oct 15, 2010 1:51pm Oct 15, 2010 1:51pm
Range between 81.00 and 81.60 ... ?
  • #20,224
  • Oct 15, 2010 3:35pm Oct 15, 2010 3:35pm
Quoting realjumper
The more I think about it, the more I doubt that BOJ will intervene.....or will need to intervene. With that link I posted above, and my post here, it seems to me that the 'stars are aligning', and this rise (of the Yen) will come to an end of it's own accord. Maybe it will double bottom on the historical low for this pair.....maybe that idiot Bernake will cause exactly that to happen tonight.....don't know.

This all my opinion of course, so it's not backed up by...

I fell asleep just after the post

Was done trading anyways, saw your posts really good.

No your thoughts are appreciated RJ, after all majority of the trades are based on emotions, still....

I assume 15 year low is going to be a magnet and around that point I won't trade, 50/50 bear/bull is not my cup off tea, but glad I am around to see history take place
  • #20,225
  • Oct 15, 2010 4:44pm Oct 15, 2010 4:44pm
Quoting realjumper
The more I think about it, the more I doubt that BOJ will intervene.....or will need to intervene. With that link I posted above, and my post here, it seems to me that the 'stars are aligning', and this rise (of the Yen) will come to an end of it's own accord. Maybe it will double bottom on the historical low for this pair.....maybe that idiot Bernake will cause exactly that to happen tonight.....don't know.

This all my opinion of course, so it's not backed up by...
Took ya one month to figure that out??
  • #20,226
  • Oct 15, 2010 5:36pm Oct 15, 2010 5:36pm
Quoting pqt
Took ya one month to figure that out??
Your point is?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,227
  • Oct 15, 2010 10:52pm Oct 15, 2010 10:52pm
Quoting 13.1 Runner
Not sure about the dbl bottom at 81.05/ Drew a line for u at that level
oh, yeah ... forgot to mention the divergence of the Macd on the hourly chart ..
  • #20,228
  • Oct 15, 2010 11:52pm Oct 15, 2010 11:52pm
Hi everyone, i'm new to this site, i'm not sure where I should post this, but since my question is related to the usdjy pair, so i decided to post here.

I hope this wont interrupt your trading discussions.. but seriously i really need help right now..

I opened a managed account with a local broker here in my country, initially it was going well, with a couple of hundred in earnings, but last week was a disaster. the person who is managing my account bought the usd/jpy pair at 83.86, and when i checked last week, the market went down and i was losing $9k+, then around wednesday, the broker hedged my account by selling at 82.08, right now my equity is left with $4k. Please help me, what should I do? I no longer trust the person who manages my account.

Please, any advice on how to solve this? $9k is not small to me.. 1 USD is 3 times my currency rate I'm really worried now..

1 option is to release all, and try to gain it back by trading, but i'm new to trading and still learning, and i still lose money even on demo accounts.

is waiting for usdjpy to reach the bottom and release the hedging position and allow the market to go back up so that I can release the losing trade, so that I lose less? Is this feasible? But if i do this, when would be he right time?
Please help.. I'm really desperate for help now.. Begging you guys...
  • #20,229
  • Oct 16, 2010 10:16am Oct 16, 2010 10:16am
i think there will be a bulish gap next monday...
  • #20,230
  • Oct 16, 2010 10:25am Oct 16, 2010 10:25am
Quoting Hugo Boss
i think there will be a bulish gap next monday...
I think... Why you think that? Many of traders think a month that in next day will be intervence! But where it is? Yen felt 200p from intervence price and 500p from intervence high. So, it can fall lower and lower. I use fibonacci levels and they works very good (only in shorts). That mean that bearish < bullish.

Be careful with long, because BOJ is not so strog to crash all trains which is comming short. If you think somethink, always say why.
  • #20,231
  • Oct 16, 2010 11:15am Oct 16, 2010 11:15am
Quoting Fibo_trader
because BOJ is not so strog to crash all trains which is comming short. If you think somethink, always say why.
The BOJ is THE force. They have brutal power but are very clever too. They have ultra deep pockets supported by a huge surplus and can and will halt the slide of the Yen. Of course they play a game here and there to trap as many Yen buyers as possible which makes an intervention much more effective due to many large stops to trigger.

They might not intervene till November, who knows... But they could intervene 24/7 not only during their Asia session.

I expect the 80 level to hold (maybe with a dip below which will be bought) and think that the USD/JPY will be above 90 in a few months again.
  • #20,232
  • Oct 16, 2010 12:25pm Oct 16, 2010 12:25pm
Quoting Xaron
The BOJ is THE force...
I expect the 80 level to hold (maybe with a dip below which will be bought) and think that the USD/JPY will be above 90 in a few months again.
The SNB was thought as THE force concerning EUR/CHF, a currency which has lower volume and volatility than USD/JPY... and still the SNB was unable to halt the decline of EUR/CHF. The SNB thought it can force the market to keep a certain level...

I find it interesting that the BOJ has stated that they are not so interested in defending a USD/JPY level, but more interested in controlling overall volatility and volume of the currency...

that said... they might let the market do what it has to do... many people believe that in the aftermath, in some months the Yen will be 90 or near, because many players like the opportunity to buy at low levels...

--> Everybody will buy once USD JPY reaches <80.... and that will stop the further decline and start the uptrend..
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #20,233
  • Edited Oct 17, 2010 2:31am Oct 16, 2010 12:37pm | Edited Oct 17, 2010 2:31am
Quoting tenogy
I opened a managed account with a local broker here in my country, initially it was going well, with a couple of hundred in earnings, but last week was a disaster. the person who is managing my account bought the usd/jpy pair at 83.86, and when i checked last week, the market went down and i was losing $9k+, then around wednesday, the broker hedged my account by selling at 82.08, right now my equity is left with $4k. Please help me, what should I do? I no longer trust the person who manages my account.

Please, any advice on how to solve this?...

Sorry to hear of ur misfortune. All beginners and novices go through this phase. Take it as tuition fees . (I know it will be very hard )

If I may say this boldly : noone really knows which direction it might go in the near term or the short term . All of us in here are , at best, making educated guesses to where it will go based on each one's experience and chart reading skills, and view from one's time of horizon ... even then we may get it wrong .

Only u know ur personality, ur strengths and weaknesses, ur psychological and financial make up . Only u could decide.

Think hard..... discuss with ur fund manager .....and make a decision .

sometimes using the common sense works !

(will like to hear if anyone else could help him ... )
  • #20,234
  • Oct 16, 2010 1:17pm Oct 16, 2010 1:17pm
Quoting tenogy
...Please, any advice on how to solve this? $9k is not small to me.. 1 USD is 3 times my currency rate I'm really worried now...
Hi, Tenogy,

Though i`ve been trading for 4 years by now, i got in this trap also. So I`m in huge loss, but still holding my longs. I got nothing else to do. Shit happens, Sir.

Hedge-deals will help if you still have some money on your account, so when you close them market wont occasionally knock you out on sudden reversal move. So if you have enough - just wait. If you don`t - add (if you have extra) and then wait . Don`t wanna/can`t add or wait - exit and admit you`ve lost. That`s up to you.

But you`re not alone, if it helps. Regards.
Vladimir Vereshchak - Making People Wealthier!
  • #20,235
  • Oct 16, 2010 2:20pm Oct 16, 2010 2:20pm
Quoting tenogy
I opened a managed account with a local broker here in my country, initially it was going well,...
Hi Tenogy, you really are in a mess I see. No one here can predict what the pair does in the nearest future and, most importantly, no one can predict, what your broker will do.

If I were in your place, I would wait (well, you can hardly do anything else now) and in case the managed account recovers, I would immediately terminate it. Try trading mini or micro lots yourself. For the beginning, make yourself content just with a small profit (let's say 1-2% per month, it would still bring much more than any saving account), quite a realistic target for a trader with consistent MM.

And never rely upon someone else with your money. Broker will always tend to diminish your profits (he will take part of it for himself) and increase your losses (to heal his own losses with your money).
  • #20,236
  • Edited 3:12am Oct 17, 2010 12:27am | Edited 3:12am
Quoting TheArcher
Sorry to hear of ur misfortune. All beginners and novices go through...
But i dont really trust him anymore
What if I get advice from all of you? Cos you guys seem to be more knowledgeable.. Could I get information from you guys about the market direction?

Quoting zevgma
Though i`ve been trading for 4 years by now, i got in this trap also. So I`m in huge loss, but still holding my longs. I got nothing else to do. Shit happens, Sir.

Hedge-deals will help if you still have some money on your account, so when you close them market wont occasionally knock you out on sudden reversal move. So if you have enough - just wait. If you don`t - add (if you have extra) and then wait . Don`t wanna/can`t add or wait - exit and admit you`ve lost. That`s up to you.

But you`re not alone, if it helps. Regards.
Thanks! It helps... are you hedging too? or allowing the equity to float with a negative value? I'd like to know your opinion on the market... thanks!

Quoting JanPoko
Hi Tenogy, you really are in a mess I see. No one here can predict what...
Thanks for your advice! I will immediately terminate the account once/if it recovers, and will start again small, but probably learning a bit more first. thanks! and thanks for telling about the broker trying to recover his losses with clients money too.. That didnt occur to me until u mentioned it. thanks!
Hope I could get more advise from you in my learning journey, and in this recovery.

Appreciate everyone's concerns and suggestions. Please keep the advice and suggestions coming! I really need them. Infinite thanks!
  • #20,237
  • Oct 17, 2010 1:44am Oct 17, 2010 1:44am
Quoting tenogy
I opened a managed account with a local broker here in my country, initially it was going well, with a couple of hundred in earnings, but last week was a disaster. the person who is managing my account bought the usd/jpy pair at 83.86, and when i checked last week, the market went down and i was losing $9k+, then around wednesday, the broker hedged my account by selling at 82.08, right now my equity is left with $4k. Please help me, what should I do? I no longer trust the person who manages my account.
Then manage it yourself. Forex is not something you let others do with your money... never!

Some tips I can give you for your future:

- never use a leverage higher than 50:1, or the market will eat you alive.
- never go "all in", it is not about getting rich quickly... it will take you some years...
- never expect that the market HAS TO DO something... like intervention of BoJ e.g. ... the moment everybody on the street talks about something waiting to happen, it most probably WILL NOT HAPPEN.
- You better go with the trend, or if you go counter trend, still use a smaller size hedge position going with the trend, you never know.
- decide what you want to be, longterm trader or daytrader.
- find the time to study and start a forex business... yes its a business you have to manage.... check how much you win/lose every week or day, try to have realistic goals.
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #20,238
  • Oct 17, 2010 3:29am Oct 17, 2010 3:29am
Quoting Xaron
The BOJ is THE force. They have brutal power but are very clever too. They have ultra deep pockets supported by a huge surplus and can and will halt the slide of the Yen. Of course they play a game here and there to trap as many Yen buyers as possible which makes an intervention much more effective due to many large stops to trigger.

They might not intervene till November, who knows... But they could intervene 24/7 not only during their Asia session.

I expect the 80 level to hold (maybe with a dip below which will be bought) and think that...


Ditto
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #20,239
  • Oct 17, 2010 3:38am Oct 17, 2010 3:38am
Quoting TheArcher
it was bottom at 79.15 way back in 1994

chart from 1978


http://i41.tinypic.com/2hmmomw.jpg

Low 80 zone will be low, 100 zone will be targeted as previous multi year support.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #20,240
  • Oct 17, 2010 4:05am Oct 17, 2010 4:05am
The faster the spend of Japan's current account the faster the Yen will fall as that seems to be the main reason behind Yen's attractiveness to investors. One more bigger intervention say $50b will reduce appetite for Yen & push it for 100 re-test, saying that 200 SMA monthly basis also around 107. Even if Ninja does hit 107 long term down trend will be intact.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
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