EURUSD

you need help in deed, price is going to 4447 eather you wnat it or not, today tomorrow or next month but is going with english or not english, if it dosen't go, I don't trade no more becasue the system is broken, that is why they are call trend line on higher time frames, if you can't see that far i'm sorry for you pal, and this is the end of the argument, you keep your analisis I keep mine but stop insulting my intelingence with sarcastic posts and "LOL's" end it now you keep your vsa tread and leave me along with my crazines, you post I post, I post you probe me wrong I apologise but if you are wrong in a few weeks then come back and say I'm wrong

next week price is going to retrace or retest who knows but in the long run you bether beleve that is going to visit that monster trend line up there because is created with the last two hights and for the price to go anyfurther is got to hit her, the only way price is going down is like gator saids, with a crash but this time the crash is going to be on the dollar inevitablely meaning there is nothing to do about it, no english here if you guys want me to stop posting in here just say so, this is with the english literates and gramar graduates, and i go away as simple as that, that is why no body learn anything here and the people that know some realy good leavea way becasue or eather a clown is here to call you names or the other clown is here to check the grama on the others, I sorry for the ones that could have learn some from this crazines, but this is why the dove_alliance and ak4x and a bunch of other good traders left this place, solon guys.........

Chill out Chonchy, no one is saying any different and no one is asking you not to post.

I totally agree, I'm of the opinion that we'll see 1.45 by Christmas, I just think that we're going to see 1.35 first...

The market is gonna do it's own thing, none of us have crystal balls or holy grails except maybe the central banks.

Good trades & lot's of pips to you...

Well that was a short long term trade. I'm out with a total of 65 pips over 3 positions, at least it's +. The reason I'm out is b/c of price action/pin bar on the 4 hr (see second chart). From my post yesterday, 307016, you can note a star by where price action was. That star shows the approx price distance the A wave had come from 1.18774 on 6/7/10 to 1.3333 on 8/6/10. If you apply that distance from the beginning of the C wave this is where it would approx end based on Elliot wave theory. I put that star there to remind me. People may be thinking...well then why did you go long. Elliot wave is not an exact thing/ there is no holy grail. We might have been in a 3rd wave. As for where we may be headed (and appearently that can be quite a touchy subject), my guess would be to around 3800, but I'm not going to argue with anyone about it. As for that blue rectangle on the 4 hr chart. I would suspect price will go back up the the box and head south from there, but I will only enter on what I see/candle formation MUST confirm this. Hope everyone had a good week
Raymond

Mate, pls relax and be patient...dont respond to provocations...dont get anyone upset u.

I had my order LONG at 1.4141 and this morning's news made the EUR go right at my entry point put me in position and head down like a ton of bricks.... Anyways, fundamentally speaking and specifically seasonally the EUR tends to top during the last stretch of the year, it has happened almost every year in the past; on the technical side I see that it barely got near the 61.8% line and bounced back... on my 1H the trend is down but my daily charts show a strong uptrend, so in my opinion this is just a correction that it could not yet be considered a wave 4 and it will still move upward; we would have to wait 'til next week's price action and see where this correction is headed to...it might well be wave 4 ....who knows!

This is just to show the H1 chart where you can see the long wick on the top showing the buying is absorbed by the sellers and if you wait for the candle close where you have a wick the price at which you short will be at a lesser price but if you switch to M5 you will get a better price to short provided you have the guts also

Next week EUR/USD Price Action...

This is quite interesting... Can blow either way next week...

this one is bullish continuation

it can.. but using 2008 as a benchmark, the max was 30% of ma pa. this was the highest recorded % of movement in the eu history. that brought it to 1.6038.. that is atm about 4253. today got as high as 20%.. i doubt this move is as strong as the 2008 move when oil was 147 $ a barrel. oil is in the lower 80ties. i except the fact that i am speculating. but i got 11 years of history to back up what i say. im not saying we dont double top or go higher. im saying it has not done it in the past (higher excluding a few pips). the bounce from 1.6038 to 1.23x was a bigger move % wise using ma pa. roughly 125 % above normal ma pa.. then a move up was 10% above normal ma pa.. then in early 2010, the move was just under 100% above a normal move to 1876.. to the current top of 20 % above normal ma pa.. the second highest average above ma pa ever recorded on this pair (in a bull move, bear % has been much higher). 2008 was 30 % and if todays holds 20%... compared to the last 2 south moves of 90% and 125 %.....
a much stronger move has been to the 23xx and 1876 lows. (distance wise)

i have us bouncing before the usdx tl started in 2007.. at least atm... if it holds it stops us from reaching eu 2008/09 tl at 45xx.... not reaching this is extremely bearish... we are not at 1.6 or 1.5, so starting a down move puts 1.0953 in the cross-hairs.. not reaching the usdx tl is extremely usd bullish... time will tell..
the method i uses had gu top at 1.6101... it topped at 1.6106.... eu i had 1.4153 it topped at 1.4153... both of these are ascending moving targets.. but if move continues lower the will eventually go down as well as lower targets get lower.. i dont know how murry works but i have confluence with it on the usdx and gu.. ...if this is just a small bounce, the one last year was close to 600 pips (the smallest bounce in this methods history). then we had a up-trending range... but with usdx tl unbroken or even touched bears have the upper hand until.. both the eu tl and the usd one point to usd strength..once touched... as long as they are not crossed. before they are crossed there is a invisible line.. it floats.. currently on eu at 4153 and usdx near tl.... the eu one is basically flat... the usdx one is descending.. it will cross the tl soon... but at the moment it offers cofluence support. it is currently about 10 pips above tl..

gl later

didn't realize that. Have a good weekend!

Yeah it could....however the bulls are running out of steam....maybe having a rest before the next push, or not. A gain of 129 in 7 days is nothing to write home about!

Having said that, this yellow channel imo, has been too steep to carry on with.....the green channel looks much better.....but, a break below (arrows) might change the whole outlook.

No one refutes your claim

but why aim 1.4447 in an unknown future when you can target 1.38 and 1.34 NOW??

Why have huge draw downs when you can be in huge profit???

I'm short eu 1.4110 gu 1.6060 and so far so good

OANDA :

For how long did they have lost connection? And next question ... did such things happen with them before?

Are there other kinds of irregularities and malpractices to be observed there ... during the course of a year or two?



http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif

Thanks , checking this thing rt now , good observation .present stop eu or usdx perhaps only due weekly close , may or not hold .counts also suggest 1 more leg down before up , eu may fall to 3869 this time with or without break , your green channel .

sorry the picture posted first by mistake was actually predicting the head of the camel may show to us , propotionately a big down before further up possible , still very rudimentary just thought this morning.

fontu

I will look out for failure between 1.40-1.405 to enter more shorts to compound into profit (1.4028 would be perfect)

If that resistance does not hold it might go to 1.418-1.42 but it was sold so heavily that such a scenario would be unlikely

Yes it was a bit too steep, not sure how big this pullback could be so pocketing 20-80 pips along the ride either way is still going to be my target...

Looking at the USD index I would be 70% surprised if we didn't see 75 and 40% surprised if we won't see 74.

As it goes for the Euro I would suspect it to be more overbought at this level (at this time last year it was around 55k at 1.4800 for non-commercials and now it is "only" 37k at 1.4000).

Would still not let go of my Stop loss though

Previous rally (june-august 1880-3330) gave back half at 2600

if this one has toped half would be 3350-34 region

Lots of thoughts in here Gator, thanks for sharing

Just keeps me wondering if this trend is pushing out SL's and traders pocketing profits before they are running after, again and again... In other words accidentally perfect bull setups, neatly one after the other...


However, no doubt about it, this trend has been extremely bull and I am not going to fight it...